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Thread: Horse Racing Angles

  1. #1
    I know there are at least a few here who like racing so I thought I'd start a thread with various angles that anybody can add to with theirs

    about a half hour ago I got on a horse at Santa Anita who was bet down in a very short race but not crunched down too bad

    one of the track's handicappers - and there are at least 16 of them - released a time on an unpublished workout and although some knew about this I doubt that many bettors did or paid attention to his blog
    the workout was not on the official program

    anyway this horse - Amalfi Sunrise - a 2 year old filly - worked one furlong in 9.80 seconds which is absolutely scorching - 12 seconds is very good for a 2 year old

    she won going away - easily - she was green - it was her first race - she started going very wide in the stretch but her jock straightened her - but fortunately no mishaps

    getting very valuable info like that that is not widely known is very unusual and very much appreciated
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 06-23-2019 at 02:29 PM.
    Of course what I'm saying is true. I saw it ON THE INTERNET.

  2. #2
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    I know there are at least a few here who like racing so I thought I'd start a thread with various angles that anybody can add to with theirs

    about a half hour ago I got on a horse at Santa Anita who was bet down in a very short race but not crunched down too bad

    one of the track's handicappers - and there are at least 16 of them - released a time on an unpublished workout and although some knew about this I doubt that many bettors did or paid attention to his blog
    the workout was not on the official program

    anyway this horse - Amalfi Sunrise - a 2 year old filly - worked one furlong in 9.80 seconds which is absolutely scorching - 12 seconds is very good for a 2 year old

    she won going away - easily - she was green - it was her first race - she started going very wide in the stretch but her jock straightened her - but fortunately no mishaps

    getting very valuable info like that that is not widely known is very unusual and very much appreciated
    Do you happen to know who the handicapper was, Smoke?....reason I ask is that there is one guy in particular that I pay attention to and just curious if he was the one...the rest of them I rarely listen to....good topic, and I値l add some of my own the closer it gets to Saratoga and Del Mar....you, Regnis and I are the only horse players here that I知 aware of

  3. #3
    Guys,

    I don't know anything about horse racing, but I have some compadres who are in deep and knowledgeable. I was going to request your thoughts, and regnis', on the stats behind the trainer suspension at Santa Anita and Golden Gate. I've seen the numbers, and usually the horse deaths are not put in context. The overall horse deaths, both for this year and for Santa Anita itself, are not out of line with other years. I understand this trainer has, what, four of the deaths, and that's not good, but it doesn't prove much of anything.

    Annual horse deaths have dropped over the last 20 years, but that's muddled by the reduction in races. Anyway, here are my questions:

    1) Am I correct that, per start, the horse racing deaths this season are not anomalous?
    2) Why the big focus on Santa Anita? The deaths are well within normal limits. Is it because the Breeders' Cup is there? Is southern California a PETA stronghold? Or what is it?
    3) Why so little math analysis of the deaths? Why no context?

  4. #4
    This is a real sore spot for me as I have been in racing, in many different capacities besides just a handicapper, nearly all of my life. There are no reliable numbers on the number of deaths, as there are deaths on the track, on the farms, in training, etc. So anything you may see that claims to be an accurate count probably isn't.

    I think Santa Anita has been demonized by the press because of its standing as a major track, and the unusual number of deaths that did occur in a short time. Then the Stronach Group (ownership) used a band-aid approach to basically cover up the problem rather than address it. They threw a bunch of garbage out there about whip usage, and then made a feeble attempt to address drug usage. While drug usage is most likely the major role in injuries and deaths, they also have a problem with both their dirt and turf courses that was not really addressed as they misdirected everyone away from that problem.

    If you listen to the older trainers and reliable vets (most of the vets are crooked and make their money prescribing and/or injecting the drugs), and study foreign racing numbers, it becomes pretty clear that Lasix, steroids, and other drugs have weakened the breed and are the primary cause of the injuries and deaths. American horses run less than they ever did, yet we have more injuries.

    If you followed the Royal Ascot meet that just ended, they were running as many as 25-30 horses in some races. They had no breakdowns. They also don't use drugs. In fact, one horse won two Group 1 races in a period of 3-4 days. That a horse would even run on such short rest is unheard of here, but to win 2 Group 1 races is amazing. But it helps to have a horse that is fit and healthy and nor reliant on drugs. Here, many handicappers believe in the "bounce" meaning a horse who ran a good race at the top of his skill level will "bounce"--i.e. regress back in his next race. Obviously, the horse in Ascot did not do that as he was fit and not reliant on drugs. Here they will tell you it takes at least 30 days for a horse's blood count to come back to normal after a tough race (again--the bounce). Clearly, there is a reason that "rule" doesn't apply overseas.

    As to the trainers that were banned, I question whether the number of horses that died or were injured should be the determinative factor without addressing the reason. In addition, all of us handicappers know of crooked trainers whose horses constantly test positive for drugs and yet are allowed to keep winning at ridiculous percentages and receive only minor fines. So to single out these few trainers is just for show by the California tracks to make it look like they are being vigilant.

    Whew--I should feel better now but I don't.

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by Keystone View Post
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    I know there are at least a few here who like racing so I thought I'd start a thread with various angles that anybody can add to with theirs

    about a half hour ago I got on a horse at Santa Anita who was bet down in a very short race but not crunched down too bad

    one of the track's handicappers - and there are at least 16 of them - released a time on an unpublished workout and although some knew about this I doubt that many bettors did or paid attention to his blog
    the workout was not on the official program

    anyway this horse - Amalfi Sunrise - a 2 year old filly - worked one furlong in 9.80 seconds which is absolutely scorching - 12 seconds is very good for a 2 year old

    she won going away - easily - she was green - it was her first race - she started going very wide in the stretch but her jock straightened her - but fortunately no mishaps

    getting very valuable info like that that is not widely known is very unusual and very much appreciated
    Do you happen to know who the handicapper was, Smoke?....reason I ask is that there is one guy in particular that I pay attention to and just curious if he was the one...the rest of them I rarely listen to....good topic, and I値l add some of my own the closer it gets to Saratoga and Del Mar....you, Regnis and I are the only horse players here that I知 aware of
    Yes, it's Jeff Siegel. he's very good - not saying blindly betting his picks will be a winning thing - but he's very knowledgeable
    I linked his blog for you
    I've found that if you read everything possible written about the bigger tracks you will sometimes find something that is useful
    most of the the time it's not useful - obvious stuff
    I've also linked the best racing forum out there - but there is a lot of crap you have to weed through on this forum to find one useful thing




    I've also linked a Joe Drape article from the NYT on the Santa Anita situation. it's probably the best commentary there is out there - IMO anyway - I really respect Joe Drape - he knows a lot



    http://www.santaanita.com/author/jeffsiegel/

    http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/?



    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/26/s...se-deaths.html
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 06-27-2019 at 07:35 AM.
    Of course what I'm saying is true. I saw it ON THE INTERNET.

  6. #6
    Thanks for the information and links, guys. I will try to get up to speed a little. My girlfriend used to hang at Los Al quite a bit, and evidently the horse mortality rate there was at least what Santa Anita's is, if you count training and live action, but Santa Anita is taking all of the heat. Thanks for the summary, regnis. From what I've learned over the last couple of years, the international racing is ultra-clean. Horses are drug free and performances are held to certain standards, so if a horse wildly erratically underperforms in China or Japan, the rider and trainer get called onto the carpet even if no incident occurred. Very, very different from the free-for-all situation in the U.S.

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Originally Posted by Keystone View Post
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    I know there are at least a few here who like racing so I thought I'd start a thread with various angles that anybody can add to with theirs

    about a half hour ago I got on a horse at Santa Anita who was bet down in a very short race but not crunched down too bad

    one of the track's handicappers - and there are at least 16 of them - released a time on an unpublished workout and although some knew about this I doubt that many bettors did or paid attention to his blog
    the workout was not on the official program

    anyway this horse - Amalfi Sunrise - a 2 year old filly - worked one furlong in 9.80 seconds which is absolutely scorching - 12 seconds is very good for a 2 year old

    she won going away - easily - she was green - it was her first race - she started going very wide in the stretch but her jock straightened her - but fortunately no mishaps

    getting very valuable info like that that is not widely known is very unusual and very much appreciated
    Do you happen to know who the handicapper was, Smoke?....reason I ask is that there is one guy in particular that I pay attention to and just curious if he was the one...the rest of them I rarely listen to....good topic, and I値l add some of my own the closer it gets to Saratoga and Del Mar....you, Regnis and I are the only horse players here that I知 aware of
    Yes, it's Jeff Siegel. he's very good - not saying blindly betting his picks will be a winning thing - but he's very knowledgeable
    I linked his blog for you
    I've found that if you read everything possible written about the bigger tracks you will sometimes find something that is useful
    most of the the time it's not useful - obvious stuff
    I've also linked the best racing forum out there - but there is a lot of crap you have to weed through on this forum to find one useful thing




    I've also linked a Joe Drape article from the NYT on the Santa Anita situation. it's probably the best commentary there is out there - IMO anyway - I really respect Joe Drape - he knows a lot



    http://www.santaanita.com/author/jeffsiegel/

    http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/?



    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/26/s...se-deaths.html
    Yes Jeff Siegel is the one I was thinking of....very hard listening to him talk as he has a severe lisp and sprays when he talks, but there is no doubt he is one of the sharpest handicappers out there....he is one of the very few I give credence to when he touts a horse...Kurt Hoover is another but he only specializes at Santa Anita and Del Mar

  8. #8
    here's a couple other potentially useful links

    Daily Racing Form is a paid site but if you register they give you 10 free articles per month - they are hard to beat when it comes to racing commentary
    Horse Racing Nation is as far as I know totally free - they are pretty good IMO


    https://www.drf.com/

    https://www.horseracingnation.com/#
    Of course what I'm saying is true. I saw it ON THE INTERNET.

  9. #9
    Paulick Report is also very good.

  10. #10
    I believe a friend of mine knows one of the owners or main contributors of Horse Racing Nation. I will check with him -- he was in England watching Royal Ascot a week ago. His family got him to spring for a vacation by suckering him in with a couple of days at Royal Ascot.

    HRN is a real nice site.

  11. #11
    Timeform is a pay site but if you register they give you 2 free PPs and picks per day
    their picks IMO are worthless
    but on the weekends they give the free PPs for big races

    also, their PPs are different - they add color and are pleasing to the eye

    and I have to admit, although I don't like their picks, the way they break down the pace scenario can't be beat



    https://timeformus.com/
    Of course what I'm saying is true. I saw it ON THE INTERNET.

  12. #12
    Sorry--I see the link didn't come through before.

    https://www.paulickreport.com/

  13. #13
    I got down on a fast mare yesterday at Woodbine
    much the best of the lot
    but hadn't raced in 6 months

    she was chalk (I'm a chalk eater) but she wasn't crushed down

    they left her alone because they don't like a horse out for 6 months

    I checked the workouts - buried stuff in tiny print

    a couple of weeks ago she worked 4 furlongs in blazing speed doing - 46 - breezing - meaning the jock never touched her - she muscled up all that speed all by herself

    I knew she was good to go - short race - if long race maybe not - but her stamina wasn't tested
    Of course what I'm saying is true. I saw it ON THE INTERNET.

  14. #14
    Today is the last day of racing "ever" for Suffolk Downs. Kind of sad that a city as large as Boston couldn't support a race track.

  15. #15
    .................................



    I've always been mostly interested in betting older, high class, consistent horses in stakes events

    lately, I've been looking at something else which is new for me - precocious 2 year olds

    these are newcomers that have shown tremendous speed in workouts or in their first race

    they are showing off - and can't be trusted in longer races - their speed is not likely to hold, they will most likely fade - but if they're entered in short races their speed is likely to overwhelm their more average rivals

    they're very inexperienced and are not yet worn down and jaded by the routines of racing - plus; it's always fun to try to identify a potential superstar
    Of course what I'm saying is true. I saw it ON THE INTERNET.

  16. #16
    Smoke--since my strength is breeding, I have always concentrated on the 2 year old races, turf, and slop. I really try to avoid the grindy claimers.

    But I feel some of my edge has been taken away by the breeding books that are out there. Where I have studied and learned breeding for 50 years, now guys who know nothing about breeding pull out their little book and go he's an A+ on the turf, or he's a B- in slop or whatever. Luckily, I find some huge errors in those ratings that can still be exploited but it gets harder and harder to find.

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    .................................



    I've always been mostly interested in betting older, high class, consistent horses in stakes events

    lately, I've been looking at something else which is new for me - precocious 2 year olds

    these are newcomers that have shown tremendous speed in workouts or in their first race

    they are showing off - and can't be trusted in longer races - their speed is not likely to hold, they will most likely fade - but if they're entered in short races their speed is likely to overwhelm their more average rivals

    they're very inexperienced and are not yet worn down and jaded by the routines of racing - plus; it's always fun to try to identify a potential superstar
    Absolutely Smoke...2 yr old races are probably my favorite races to bet.....a particularly good angle is if you can identify a really precocious Freshman sire, as they usually drop winners in bunches at first before they slow down....made some really good money a few years back on Blame and Dominus babies....2 to keep your eye on this year are Bayern and Constitution. From what I致e seen in the limited sample is that their offspring are stone cold runners....@Regnis, agree regarding Suffolk and Boston. Sadly there just isn稚 the interest there used to be, especially with tracks that primarily offer low level claiming rats

  18. #18
    Agree--love Constitution so far. Although a son of Tapit who we all know is precocious, still a little surprised that they haven't needed more distance.

  19. #19
    Dying sport, can't die soon enough.

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by PIGGY BANKER View Post
    Dying sport, can't die soon enough.

    it's not even remotely close to dying buddy
    the U.S. parimutuel handle was over $11 billion last year, the most since 2011 - about 20% more than 1990


    many fewer live attendees - but technology saved racings - gigantic sums being bet at simulcast facilities and at ADW (advance deposit wagering - cyber) websites


    http://www.jockeyclub.com/default.asp?section=FB&area=8
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 07-05-2019 at 11:21 PM.
    Of course what I'm saying is true. I saw it ON THE INTERNET.

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