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Thread: Sportsbetting Anguish

  1. #1
    In another thread I explained how, even though I dropped betting sports around 3 years ago after proving to a very disgusted LVA Sports forum run by self-proclaimed luminary Fezzik, exactly how great my picks that season turned out to be, I made a fairly large/very difficult 4-team parlay bet to cover.

    Well, in typical NFL fashion, my first two bets actually covered, meaning I now need San Diego to lose by 2 or less points tonight and the 49ers to win by 4 if I want to collect what looks like around $49,000 if I read these tickets right -- which is probably off some since I've never bet a parlay in my life. GO CHARGERS!

  2. #2
    Please explain this to me since I don't know anything about sports betting. You said:

    "I now need San Diego to lose by 2 or less points tonight and the 49ers to win by 4"

    Does this mean that San Diego has to lose by 2 or less points, or can SD win? Does San Franciso have to win by 4 or can they win by more than 4?

  3. #3
    SD has to either lose by 1 or 2 points, tie, or win for me to cover, since I got the game @ Balt -2.5.
    For me to win the game tomorror night, since I got it @ SF -3, the 49ers have to win that game by 4 or more points.

  4. #4
    OK, Philly crushes the Jets 45-19; NE blasts Denver 41-23; and tonight SD destroys the Ravens 34-14. These were all suppose to be close. Now I'm 3-0 in my four-team parlay. Am I a sports betting genius or what--much like I've been with the development of my Singer VP Play strategy? So now I need SF to win by 4 or more tomorrow and about 50 grand of casino money is mine.

    Too bad the LVA Sports Einsteins seen't enjoying yet another Singer run!
    Last edited by Rob.Singer; 12-18-2011 at 09:22 PM.

  5. #5
    I would seriously consider hedging this to guarantee a profit. You could shop for a +3 1/2 and put 12 to 15K on Pitt, or just take the +3 and do the same. The reason I think this may be a good ideas is that San Diego winning the game last night provides Pitt an opportunity to take over first place in their division. This also means Pitt could secure a first round bye and possible home field (since they beat the Patriots), so the game becomes huge for Pitt. Now if Big Ben doesn't play, it's all problematic, but I have to think if he can walk, he'll play. I'd hedge a chunk of this.

  6. #6
    Of course, if you're dead set against hedging before the game, you may want to consider it if SF is up at half. If you can bet Pitt the second half with the opportunity to win both wagers, that's a great spot to be in. But, as I said, I'd hedge this before the game started.

  7. #7
    redietz, I know you know what you're talking about, but I am as unprepared for hedging at this point as I am in how I was knowing how to/why to do it from the start. I know why you guys do that though--sort of provides the safety valve. I've never gone that route with my bets, and I don't have the cash to make the proper hedge anyway.

    I agree with all the Pittsburgh motivational angles you mentioned after Baltimore lost last night, but that didn't make Big Ben heal any faster either. He's still hurting, and I believe his team is playing a better team in their stadium anyway. While I've talked to sportsbettors who have 6 figures riding on games every week in the NFL, I've never had so much riding on a single game. I won't do this ever again even if I somehow win it!

  8. #8
    Well, I'll just say "nice job" on the wager to this point and wish you well. The game is interesting in that it was all SF money initially through Saturday, and now it'll be Pitt money. The Steelers have generated very few turnovers this year, and they are facing a team that doesn't provide many. But it's also the first time this QB is facing Pitt's defense, so that usually doesn't go well for the young QB. Should be a war.

    I thought Big Ben had torn all his ankle ligaments after I saw the hit last week -- was stunned it was a sprain and he came back in. But the man likes pain killers, evidently.

    Good luck.

  9. #9
    Wow, I am showing my true ignorance here about sports betting, but here goes...

    Rob: do you win anything at this point if you "cash" your ticket or "sell it back" or sell it to another?

    If SF loses tonight, is your ticket worth anything or was it all or nothing?

    And if you were to "hedge" with a bet that the Steelers win tonight, would you bet enough just to cover your original $6,000 outlay? Or how does that hedge work?

    The only hedge bet in a casino that I am familiar with is betting a "craps" on the come out roll to "insure" your passline bet. Otherwise, every "hedge" bet only adds to the house advantage.

  10. #10
    He gets nada if SF doesn't cover, but he could sell the ticket easily enough. That's why a hedge would work, and why I recommended 12-15K. It gets your money back and gives you a nice profit. Plus you have wiggle room if SF is up at halftime (by three or more). You could bet the Steelers in the second half. You therefore try to win both the -3 parlay bet and the halftime bet. Rob's in great position here to be safe, greedy, or both.

  11. #11
    It's all or nothing for me. I'm not going out today anyway.

    The only "other" way I get paid something if SF doesn't win by at least 4 is if they win by only 3. That's the line I got on all 3 tickets, and if the game cover ties, I win as if the tickets were 3 team parlays. I think they pay around 5:1 in that case.

  12. #12
    redietz, do I have this correct: Rob could sell the ticket now for $12k to $15k ?? The old Wall Street saying comes to mind... Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

  13. #13
    If I were sitting in Nevada with Rob, I would be more than happy to buy that ticket for 12-15K. It's easier, and less of a hassle, if Rob has cash on hand, to just hedge the thing yourself. Rob has 50K or thereabouts coming back if he wins. He has 6K invested. I suggested 12-15K as my hedge just because I like the idea of him getting his money back plus enough to do it again (if he loses). If he wins, he loses the 12K to 15K hedge, but that still leaves him with 35K to 37K. I would never go all or nothing on an NFL game, but that's just me.

    Technically, what I would actually do (if I were laying -3) is shop my brains out for the best place to buy the +3 line now available to a +4. If the cost of doing this were too exorbitant, I'd just hedge with a +3.

  14. #14
    I'm wondering if this project of Rob's will wind up anywhere on the LVA boards. It'll be tough to find fault with this project.

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I'm wondering if this project of Rob's will wind up anywhere on the LVA boards. It'll be tough to find fault with this project.
    That would be funny because if it's anything like how those idiots reacted to my big vp hits I wrote about over the years in Gaming Today, they'll ask for picture proof, then when they get it they'll say I photo-shopped everything. Their envy is non-stop.

    I haven't the time, desire, or experience to do anything other than to live with my original bet tonight. It was a one time shot after getting a silly idea into my head of a way to recoup the expenses of this vacation. I can handle the loss and I'm not really expecting a single football game to cooperate with me. If I win I'm a genius, if I lose I'm only three quarters of a genius!

  16. #16
    Here's another bunch of baloney the LVA clowns will spout if Alan drags this possible incredible bet over there. They'll have no choice but to accuse him of altering the posting times so they can say some of the games were already in the books before I posted about the parlay.

  17. #17
    I won't be doing it, Rob. As I already told Frank Kneeland when we had lunch at Caesars-- I'm finished there. Really, finished.

  18. #18
    Well, I can vouch for no past posting -- but I'm banned from LVA, so no help there.

  19. #19
    I think some of them already know. It might get posted if I lose so they can cheer my losing $6000.

    It's 6-0 at the half---in my favor. I have to win by at least four. It could be worse....a LOT worse, even though I'be only got a nearly invisible 2 pt. cushion. I like Ben's gimpy ankle too. Here we go. I have a chance.

    So now we're heading into the final quarter, with a 13-3 lead. Is this real....or am I being teased?
    Last edited by Rob.Singer; 12-19-2011 at 09:41 PM.

  20. #20
    Like Red Auerbach, I'm lighting up that great big cigar! 9 minutes left, 20-3 is the score. Fezzik, move over you fraud, Alan Boston, get outta town you junkie; perpetual Czech, cry me a river you chump! With a bigger win coming up than ANY of you have ever experienced, maybe Anthony Curtis ought to hire ME to sell picks to the losers.

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