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Thread: $2 FullPay dueces downtown

  1. #21
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post

    I remember one time back in the mid 2000's (maybe around 2007) where Circus Circus (Reno) had a 5-bank of slant-tops with $5 denom FPDW (single-line). A pro-team had them locked up (a styrofoam cup of coffee on each of the five games) so that no one else could get in. I don't know when they opened those up, I only know that after I initially saw them they were blown out the next day (so maybe 15 hours or so).
    In 2002 the El Dorado put in a 5-machine bank of 20 coin $1 FPDW. Tuna and his team destroyed it in a couple of days.

    Also in 2002, Peppermill put in an 8-machine bank of 5 coin $1 FPDW. After my first day of play I went to the booth to get a meal comp. The boothling said "you've been assigned a host." She told me where the host's office was and that I should go visit. I didn't go. After my 2nd day of play I did the same, went to the booth to get a meal comp. The boothling said I hadn't met my host yet and set up an appointment. I blew the appointment off.

    On the 3rd morning I was playing when a host walked up to a friend of mine who was also on the play and said "Al, I'm disqualifying you from all drawings and special events." If you knew anything about the Peppermill the drawings were a big part of any play you found there.

    "What? Why am I disqualified?"
    "C'mon, Al. You know you're a pro. I'll leave your comp alone for now. Now I have to tell this Crimm guy the same thing."
    "I know him. I'll tell him for you." said Al.

    Little did the host know I was right there listening to him. "Screw this play" I told Al, cashed out and left. I've been disqualified from drawings and special events ever since.
    Great story. I should mention that the Circus Circus play was 5-coin, if my vision and memory serve me (I never played those machines, just observed briefly as the team was playing). If 5-hand $1 FPDW (I assume 5-coin) is showing up in 2019, I think it is likely an act of desperation, perhaps industry-wide but certainly for the Grand. The appearance of FPDW is one of the odder bellwethers of the economy I suspect.
    DTG had unusually good paytables before this (I know they had $1 9/6 JoB at least), and also rather haphazardly distributed games (something like 8/5 BP right next to 7/5 BP).

    They may just have no idea what they're doing with VP. Maybe they decided they should be getting more VP action and didn't realize FPDW is a guaranteed loser for the house in LV.

    As far as action I thought the place seemed to be doing reasonably well for a boutique casino.

  2. #22
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    What is the purpose of this thread and others like the skyline thread where PIGGY BANK is listing the +EV plays right down to what they are worth? (shades of Monet). While this forum has limited traffic, I suspect there are much more who lurk (many forums), looking for just this kind of tidbit. Won't the result be that these plays get shut down very quickly because of open discussion like this? Is that the goal?

    I don't care because I have all but ceased any and all machine play and gone back to my blackjack roots. I play just enough machine play (very small amount) to cover my food needs and keep food offers rolling in (usually with meniscal amounts of free play as well). It just seems to me that posting this in such detail has no benefit only negative consequences.

    While I share some info (probably far too much) about how I play, I never mention specific favorable casinos and conditions. I have a casino currently in my Las Vegas rotation that is dealing 6 deck to better than 5.5 decks, with late surrender. I would never post the name of that casino, and the few times I have seen other members do that, conditions worsen very quickly, one time, the very next day. I just don't get the purpose of what PIGGY BANK is doing, unless the purpose is sabotage.
    Sometimes AP's that have busted/mismanaged themselves out of the game can be bitter. Maybe that is the situation here. Sort of like the ex-counter that resorts to taking the dealer job.

  3. #23
    There's numerous gaming-related reasons why these people suddenly put in a bunch of $1/$2 FPDW, of which any could be true at this point. At a place like DTG, I tend to believe they knew what they were doing by putting them in (temporarily, obviously). Could be a silent sting to get pics and info on local AP's.

    That's why I'm looking at this from a business perspective. It is very likely that they have a reason to greatly increase machine revenue for a given period of time. What better way to do that than via promos or putting in games that'll generate massive amounts of play for the needed amount of time? Sure they may well lose profit margin during this period, but the objective will be bet.
    Last edited by Rob.Singer; 07-17-2019 at 12:28 PM.

  4. #24
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    There's numerous gaming-related reasons why these people suddenly put in a bunch of $1/$2 FPDW, of which any could be true at this point. At a place like DTG, I tend to believe they knew what they were doing by putting them in (temporarily, obviously). Could be a silent sting to get pics and info on local AP's.

    That's why I'm looking at this from a business perspective. It is very likely that they have a reason to greatly increase machine revenue for a given period of time. What better way to do that than via promos or putting in games that'll generate massive amounts of play for the needed amount of time? Sure they may well lose profit margin during this period, but the objective will be bet.
    I think you meant coin-in, rather than revenue. At least I hope you did.

  5. #25
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    There's numerous gaming-related reasons why these people suddenly put in a bunch of $1/$2 FPDW, of which any could be true at this point. At a place like DTG, I tend to believe they knew what they were doing by putting them in (temporarily, obviously). Could be a silent sting to get pics and info on local AP's.

    That's why I'm looking at this from a business perspective. It is very likely that they have a reason to greatly increase machine revenue for a given period of time. What better way to do that than via promos or putting in games that'll generate massive amounts of play for the needed amount of time? Sure they may well lose profit margin during this period, but the objective will be bet.

    I think what you do if you want to impress a potential buyer is use marketing money to improve gaming revenues by offering overly generous promotions comp benefits. The buyer will see the high hold and handle but not realize how dependent they are on excessive marketing costs.

    Here they are just adding full pay machines that will improve handle but drive down hold.

    I don't know though, you could be right. I know they were adding some random freeplay benefits to their players club a few months ago.

  6. #26
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    What is the purpose of this thread and others like the skyline thread where PIGGY BANK is listing the +EV plays right down to what they are worth? (shades of Monet). While this forum has limited traffic, I suspect there are much more who lurk (many forums), looking for just this kind of tidbit. Won't the result be that these plays get shut down very quickly because of open discussion like this? Is that the goal?

    I don't care because I have all but ceased any and all machine play and gone back to my blackjack roots. I play just enough machine play (very small amount) to cover my food needs and keep food offers rolling in (usually with meniscal amounts of free play as well). It just seems to me that posting this in such detail has no benefit only negative consequences.

    While I share some info (probably far too much) about how I play, I never mention specific favorable casinos and conditions. I have a casino currently in my Las Vegas rotation that is dealing 6 deck to better than 5.5 decks, with late surrender. I would never post the name of that casino, and the few times I have seen other members do that, conditions worsen very quickly, one time, the very next day. I just don't get the purpose of what PIGGY BANK is doing, unless the purpose is sabotage.
    Doesn't matter what gets said here the deuce play is all over Twitter.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  7. #27
    Originally Posted by smurgerburger View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post

    In 2002 the El Dorado put in a 5-machine bank of 20 coin $1 FPDW. Tuna and his team destroyed it in a couple of days.

    Also in 2002, Peppermill put in an 8-machine bank of 5 coin $1 FPDW. After my first day of play I went to the booth to get a meal comp. The boothling said "you've been assigned a host." She told me where the host's office was and that I should go visit. I didn't go. After my 2nd day of play I did the same, went to the booth to get a meal comp. The boothling said I hadn't met my host yet and set up an appointment. I blew the appointment off.

    On the 3rd morning I was playing when a host walked up to a friend of mine who was also on the play and said "Al, I'm disqualifying you from all drawings and special events." If you knew anything about the Peppermill the drawings were a big part of any play you found there.

    "What? Why am I disqualified?"
    "C'mon, Al. You know you're a pro. I'll leave your comp alone for now. Now I have to tell this Crimm guy the same thing."
    "I know him. I'll tell him for you." said Al.

    Little did the host know I was right there listening to him. "Screw this play" I told Al, cashed out and left. I've been disqualified from drawings and special events ever since.
    Great story. I should mention that the Circus Circus play was 5-coin, if my vision and memory serve me (I never played those machines, just observed briefly as the team was playing). If 5-hand $1 FPDW (I assume 5-coin) is showing up in 2019, I think it is likely an act of desperation, perhaps industry-wide but certainly for the Grand. The appearance of FPDW is one of the odder bellwethers of the economy I suspect.
    DTG had unusually good paytables before this (I know they had $1 9/6 JoB at least), and also rather haphazardly distributed games (something like 8/5 BP right next to 7/5 BP).

    They may just have no idea what they're doing with VP. Maybe they decided they should be getting more VP action and didn't realize FPDW is a guaranteed loser for the house in LV.

    As far as action I thought the place seemed to be doing reasonably well for a boutique casino.
    Whatever the cause, $1/5-coin/5-hand FPDW is suicidal (especially in one of the most mature markets in the world) since the variance (BR requirement) is so much more manageable versus $5 single-hand 5 coin FPDW (which itself carries devastating consequences). I absolutely cannot see this play lasting more than a heartbeat. If it's a honeypot (per JBJB's supposition) then it's a fairly expensive way to create an AP database (and maybe that is the case). In a different post, Ron wrote that they could know what they're doing and have some incentive for this that is revenue-driven. Maybe there is a performance bonus clause in the slot manager's contract that is based on coin-in (rather than profit or is a much bigger factor than profit) and the downturn in casino revenue needed an injection to make up for the shortfalls so that the bonus-clause is triggered. If the play ends up lasting awhile, I sure hope that someone knowledgeable will post the reason why.
    Last edited by tableplay; 07-17-2019 at 01:16 PM.

  8. #28
    I didn't realize it was 5-play, that makes it more interesting.

    The AP database idea makes absolutely no sense to me, especially for a small non-chain casino. What is this information supposed to protect them from?

  9. #29
    The AP database would never be for that casino alone. Casinos are run by people with industry friends.

    Perhaps Bob Dancer has something to do with this.

    Axel mentioned two 5-play machines with $1 FPDW. I suspect he controls both of them right now.

  10. #30
    Maybe someone told the techs to set the machines to the best pay tables available not realizing that it was positive for a player using optimal strategy. KISS

  11. #31
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    The AP database would never be for that casino alone. Casinos are run by people with industry friends.
    I agree with this. One of those friends or associates would be the database company itself. While I am not aware, nor heard from players I network with, it wouldn't surprise me if one of the database groups like OSN or biometrics was really reaching out to include machine type AP's in their databases. It seems this is the "hot" area that the casino industry is concerned about right now....probably over-concerned about, just as they have been with card counters for decades. With the casino industry, Boyd and others seemingly cracking down and more concerned with machine AP's, it would be a nature fit for the database groups to begin focusing on machine AP's as well, not because they are a threat, but mealy because the casino industry lately has the bug up their ass thinking that these players are a threat.

    Now that said, I don't think a rather rinky-dink outfit like 5th street gaming, owners of DTG would be the participant. But ya never know. Something to be cautious about.

    With blackjack, there are games in Las Vegas that are known as counter traps. Mostly double deck games. Some of the games, players know the consequences will be felt at only that property. Others are part of a chain and consequences can be felt throughout sister properties. And some, whether independent or part of a chain, are big contributors to the databases and consequences can be far reaching.

    You never know what this industry is up to. They get a bug up there ass feeling that AP's are costing them money and they blow it way out of proportion and end up spending 10 times, even 100 times as much on countermeasures, including subscriptions to the various databases, and different technology than they were "losing" to the AP's in the first place. Bill Zender had it right like 15 years ago with card counters that casinos should just ignore like 99% and only worry about the select few (mostly well funded teams) that really effect the casinos bottom line. The same is true for machine AP's. Casinos are overly paranoid and spend far more to fix "problems" than the "problems" were costing them in the first place. This is exactly what occurred when casinos began being run by people that went to business school instead of people that knew the casino business.

  12. #32
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    What is the purpose of this thread and others like the skyline thread where PIGGY BANK is listing the +EV plays right down to what they are worth? (shades of Monet). While this forum has limited traffic, I suspect there are much more who lurk (many forums), looking for just this kind of tidbit. Won't the result be that these plays get shut down very quickly because of open discussion like this? Is that the goal?

    I don't care because I have all but ceased any and all machine play and gone back to my blackjack roots. I play just enough machine play (very small amount) to cover my food needs and keep food offers rolling in (usually with meniscal amounts of free play as well). It just seems to me that posting this in such detail has no benefit only negative consequences.

    While I share some info (probably far too much) about how I play, I never mention specific favorable casinos and conditions. I have a casino currently in my Las Vegas rotation that is dealing 6 deck to better than 5.5 decks, with late surrender. I would never post the name of that casino, and the few times I have seen other members do that, conditions worsen very quickly, one time, the very next day. I just don't get the purpose of what PIGGY BANK is doing, unless the purpose is sabotage.
    In my personal theory, Piggy Banker could have done this for potential kudos and praise for giving out lucrative Casino Promotions.

  13. #33
    I think the database theory is insane. We are talking about people playing full pay VP, not exploiting a glitch or a misset machine or multicarding. What use would a list of such persons be, especially under the supposition that the only reason they offered full pay in the first place was to get this list?

  14. #34
    Originally Posted by Blackjackpro View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    What is the purpose of this thread and others like the skyline thread where PIGGY BANK is listing the +EV plays right down to what they are worth? (shades of Monet). While this forum has limited traffic, I suspect there are much more who lurk (many forums), looking for just this kind of tidbit. Won't the result be that these plays get shut down very quickly because of open discussion like this? Is that the goal?

    I don't care because I have all but ceased any and all machine play and gone back to my blackjack roots. I play just enough machine play (very small amount) to cover my food needs and keep food offers rolling in (usually with meniscal amounts of free play as well). It just seems to me that posting this in such detail has no benefit only negative consequences.

    While I share some info (probably far too much) about how I play, I never mention specific favorable casinos and conditions. I have a casino currently in my Las Vegas rotation that is dealing 6 deck to better than 5.5 decks, with late surrender. I would never post the name of that casino, and the few times I have seen other members do that, conditions worsen very quickly, one time, the very next day. I just don't get the purpose of what PIGGY BANK is doing, unless the purpose is sabotage.
    In my personal theory, Piggy Banker could have done this for potential kudos and praise for giving out lucrative Casino Promotions.
    Here to help

  15. #35
    Originally Posted by smurgerburger View Post
    I think the database theory is insane. We are talking about people playing full pay VP, not exploiting a glitch or a misset machine or multicarding. What use would a list of such persons be, especially under the supposition that the only reason they offered full pay in the first place was to get this list?
    I can only offer a reply based on blackjack, but I think it is easily relatable to machines.

    A casinos decides to offer a blackjack game with really good conditions (rules penetration, low house edge). So this game attracts players. Both card counters and non card counters looking for a low house edge and good conditions. And even of the card counters it attracts, 95% are no threat, either making enough mistakes so they aren't playing a winning game, or are under-bankrolled to do much damage. Only a very small fraction of a percent are really any risk. So they have all this new business, playing this low house edge game and because most aren't playing anywhere near optimal, the real house edge is greater than that slim house edge number that drew all these players to begin with.

    So from all this new business and revenue, there is that very small percent that is a threat. You identify that small percent, or fraction of a percent and eliminate them and you have increased revenue.

    Now again, I don't think this is what is occurring at DTG. I just don't think enough of 5th street gaming, that they would even be smart enough to think like this. At both DTG and Lucky club, 5th street gaming's M.O. is to have crappy games and be completely intolerant of AP's, backing off card counters and non-card counters at the smallest of a raise in bets.

  16. #36
    But the hypothesis was that the *reason* they are offering FPDW is to compile a list of people who play it with an edge. Once they have accomplished this they will then revert to their usual paytables...making the list useless.

    I think MaxPen is probably correct that the slot director or management decided to improve paytables to bring in more business (maybe with an ulterior motive of prepping the casino for a sale) and didn't quite grasp what happens when you offer a +EV off the top game at reasonabky high limits in LV.

  17. #37
    Originally Posted by smurgerburger View Post
    But the hypothesis was that the *reason* they are offering FPDW is to compile a list of people who play it with an edge. Once they have accomplished this they will then revert to their usual paytables...making the list useless.
    No. What they would do is then start 86ing those players. Especially all those players they have linked or suspect of playing together. My gut tells me that machine players are about to start realizing the countermeasures that blackjack card counters have been dealing with for decades, including 86ing, trespasses for doing nothing wrong...just playing by the rules.

    Originally Posted by smurgerburger View Post
    I think MaxPen is probably correct that the slot director or management decided to improve paytables to bring in more business (maybe with an ulterior motive of prepping the casino for a sale) and didn't quite grasp what happens when you offer a +EV off the top game at reasonabky high limits in LV.
    I do think the inflating numbers in preparation for a sale is a possibility as well. Mostly because the few times I have been in DTG in the last year, I wonder how it is that they are even open. Since DTG opened it has amazed me that just a block off Fremont street, and it is always dead in there even at times that Fremont Street is hopping.

    So you inflate numbers just before the sale, increasing numbers of players and traffic at the expense of the hold. The hope is that a new company will be impressed with the traffic numbers and think they have the knowledge and expertise to improve the hold.

  18. #38
    Machine players have experienced everything counters have including arrest.

    Anyway there still is the problem of what they're protecting by 86ing the players in this scenario if in fact the game is only being offered to attract these players. That was the honeypot theory. But I don't actually care, we can move on.

  19. #39
    I'm not in control of those machines.
    I probably won't even put much time in there , I have other things I have to do. Grinding out a .7% edge just isn't my style nowadays, I have many times in the past when I was hungry. I prefer a little more meat on the bone if going to put any significant amount of time in. There's better stuff if you really want it. I just wanted to spike some play on my card. I might play some more if I have time and feel like it.

    It's absolutely absurd to think they would give up 10's of thousands in value as an AP trap. You are just opening yourself up to all kinds of problems. Just one dumb security guard could cost them 100's of thousands. Especially if something goes wrong and it's proven it was an AP set up. And why in God's name would they put in so many full pay machines? They could do 10 machines and get the same thing accomplished.

  20. #40
    Originally Posted by smurgerburger View Post
    But the hypothesis was that the *reason* they are offering FPDW is to compile a list of people who play it with an edge. Once they have accomplished this they will then revert to their usual paytables...making the list useless.

    I think MaxPen is probably correct that the slot director or management decided to improve paytables to bring in more business (maybe with an ulterior motive of prepping the casino for a sale) and didn't quite grasp what happens when you offer a +EV off the top game at reasonabky high limits in LV.
    Yup, that's my theory too.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

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