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Thread: Calculating EV of strategy changes between VP games.

  1. #1
    I swear I've read how to calculate the EV difference for individual strategy changes between games (either in a book or a column) but I cannot remember where. For example, if you use 9/6 JOB strategy on 8/5 BP, you can only achieve 99.16 instead of 99.17...what is the way to calculate what the strategy changes that make up the extra .01 in EV are worth? Another example would be JOB vs 10/7 DB and how much does holding AAA out of AAA55 account for, in the ~.54 difference between 99.63 and 100.17?

    How do you calculate the incremental EV (either with software or by hand)?

  2. #2
    WoO has an article about the cost of using the strategy for one game on a different but related game.

    I doubt there's an app that lets you test this directly, you'd have to code it yourself.

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by Katch View Post
    I swear I've read how to calculate the EV difference for individual strategy changes between games (either in a book or a column) but I cannot remember where. For example, if you use 9/6 JOB strategy on 8/5 BP, you can only achieve 99.16 instead of 99.17...what is the way to calculate what the strategy changes that make up the extra .01 in EV are worth? Another example would be JOB vs 10/7 DB and how much does holding AAA out of AAA55 account for, in the ~.54 difference between 99.63 and 100.17?

    How do you calculate the incremental EV (either with software or by hand)?
    Wolf Video Poker software and Frugal Video Poker software allow you to do this via simulation. You can import the strategy chart for 9/6 JOB and run it on the 8/5 BP paytable and then compare it to a run of the 8/5 BP optimum strategy on the 8/5 BP paytable. So maybe 4 Million hands run in each scenario should give you an accurate estimate. Obviously the more hands played in each of the two scenarios the more accurate the estimate.

  4. #4
    Thanks, that's what I've heard about Wolf; unfortunately, it is no longer available, though I didn't know Frugal could.
    I also didn't think either would be able to calculate the EV of a single strategy change (like my JOB to DB example, but also breaking aces full). I would happily buy additional software that could though.

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by Katch View Post
    Thanks, that's what I've heard about Wolf; unfortunately, it is no longer available, though I didn't know Frugal could.
    I also didn't think either would be able to calculate the EV of a single strategy change (like my JOB to DB example, but also breaking aces full). I would happily buy additional software that could though.
    If you use the "tweak strategy charts" feature in Frugal Video Poker I think it calculates the resulting EV. Regardless though, you can run a simulation to see what the resulting pay back under the tweaked chart and paytable is, and compare it to the EV of the optimum strategy for that paytable.

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by Katch View Post
    I swear I've read how to calculate the EV difference for individual strategy changes between games (either in a book or a column) but I cannot remember where. For example, if you use 9/6 JOB strategy on 8/5 BP, you can only achieve 99.16 instead of 99.17...what is the way to calculate what the strategy changes that make up the extra .01 in EV are worth? Another example would be JOB vs 10/7 DB and how much does holding AAA out of AAA55 account for, in the ~.54 difference between 99.63 and 100.17?

    How do you calculate the incremental EV (either with software or by hand)?
    If you don't like breaking up Aces full then don't do it. You're really not giving up anything. The freq. of flopping aces full is 9024. The full house is worth 10 units. Drawing to the aces full is worth 10.1147 units. If you divide the .1147 by 9024 you get:

    .0000127105

    10/7 is a 100.1725% game so subtract .0000127105 from that. You get something like 100.17248%. Keeping the full house offers a hell of a lot less variance without really losing any of the payback.
    "It is worth noting that those that have never lived under socialism adore it while those that have lived under socialism hate it." Gerry Kasperov

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Katch View Post
    I swear I've read how to calculate the EV difference for individual strategy changes between games (either in a book or a column) but I cannot remember where. For example, if you use 9/6 JOB strategy on 8/5 BP, you can only achieve 99.16 instead of 99.17...what is the way to calculate what the strategy changes that make up the extra .01 in EV are worth? Another example would be JOB vs 10/7 DB and how much does holding AAA out of AAA55 account for, in the ~.54 difference between 99.63 and 100.17?

    How do you calculate the incremental EV (either with software or by hand)?
    If you don't like breaking up Aces full then don't do it. You're really not giving up anything. The freq. of flopping aces full is 9024. The full house is worth 10 units. Drawing to the aces full is worth 10.1147 units. If you divide the .1147 by 9024 you get:

    .0000127105

    10/7 is a 100.1725% game so subtract .0000127105 from that. You get something like 100.17248%. Keeping the full house offers a hell of a lot less variance without really losing any of the payback.
    Thanks, Mickey. That math makes sense and will help me with some hand calcs. I used that JOB to DB example with the aces full because I thought that change was one that would be recognizable. I really want to be able to calculate this for some other games/strategy changes where only 2-3 different key holds make up the majority of the EV difference.

    Is Frugal software available anywhere anymore or is it lost to the ether now like Wolf?

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