Another Undeniable Truth About Video Poker

[Rob.Singer]

If you're like 99%+ of all video poker players, you're a loser--plain & simple. The game was designed to take everyone's money, and it does a nearly perfect job of it.

But based on a few studies I read about back in 2000 plus from one of my own, did you know that in over 95% of your play sessions, the player is actually AHEAD at one or more points? Yes that is true--I challenge you to try keeping track for yourself! So you see, while losing is almost always expected by the vast majority of players, it doesn't have to be that way.

Of course, the math critics who are also almost all addicted to playing, will first claim that's impossible because it doesn't fit the math models. But hold on you neurotic lunatics! Once again, we're not talking about some stupid theory that you can hide behind. Yes, this is reality, and if you weren't afraid to face an actual set of facts for a change, the conclusion would be obvious.

Their next claim is even more pathetic. Here's one I recently read: Golly gee Rob, if I'm a quarter player and if my first hand on BP is two pair, there's no way I'm leaving with a measley buck-and-a-quarter profit. OK you fool, but is leaving with a $40 loss BETTER? You see, casinos don't want players who have discipline, because they know that if the player always left as soon as they got ahead at whatever amount, no casino would ever stay open. Thank God for those AP' s, right!?

While we're at it, did you know that while over 95% of casino patrons on any given day are ahead some amount, 99% of those same people will go out the doors a loser. Again, discipline and knowledge go hand-in-hand in success, while it only takes a lack of discipline to fail.

Think about this, then think about what your total lifetime results would look like if you had always left the very first time you got ahead on your casino visits. Pretty humbling, correct?

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob I don't know what it is that makes video poker players want to keep playing even when they have a healthy profit? Is it the lure of bigger wins, and more money that keeps them glued to their seats? Is it the pursuit of the royal flush that will not let them leave after they've doubled or tripled their buy-ins?

This problem does not happen anywhere else or in any other games: live poker players know to bolt from the casino when they've doubled up or tripled-up their buy-ins at a $100 or $200 table. Craps players know to get out of Dodge after a hot roll that gave them a thousand dollar hand. Blackjack players even know to leave after a hot shoe. But video poker players -- too many of them -- keep playing. And some of them make the assumption that as long as they are sitting with a positive edge from the paytable plus comps and cashback that each hand played is a profitable hand even though they are losing, losing, losing.

These video poker players argue that each hand gives them an advantage. Well, an advantage of what? Losing?

As long as you are facing an RNG that may not cooperate with you and give you the cards you need every hand is a gamble and every hand is a potential loss. You cannot take theoretical dollars to the bank.

Tonight I played a bounty poker tournament at The Commerce and I got lucky and finished 13th and knocked out three players along the way and collected 3 bounties. I pocketed about $435. It was a nice evening to finish on the upside. But during the evening I witnessed too many hands where the "best hand" or the hand that the "odds say will win" lost. I saw AA get busted three times, once by pocket jacks when two jacks flopped giving quads. Once when AA was all in against 88 and there was an 8 on the river. And once AA lost to a flush that was 10 high.

The odds might say you will win. The odds might say you are likely to come out ahead. But the winner isn't decided until all the cards are played. And that happens in video poker also.

I personally have been ahead at some point nearly every time I've played video poker -- sometimes in the first couple of plays. But it's greed that keeps us playing longer. I guess no one wants to go to a casino, win a hundred bucks, and then watch a movie in their room or go for a walk down the Strip.

[Rob.Singer]

The big reason vp players cannot stop playing is because when they lose they want to experience "winning" that they just know is "right around the corner", and when they win they want to and believe they can win more. Makes no difference that more than 50% of all hands are losers and the most frequent winner is a push. Players want that intermittent feeling of satisfaction. Period.

But this is easily overcome once you learn the true value of discipline. Why? Because casinos count on players lacking that trait, and over 99% of us do. Thus, their array of distractions. And they combat the so-called AP's euphoric but mythical feeling of "having an edge" by continuously roping them in to sit for hours and sometimes days, playing to their last dime chasing nothing but phantom bucks. They know these people will never leave just because they're ahead no matter what amount, and they know that overwhelmingly, people who stay on past a big winner or series of smaller winners will end up losing. It's right there---in the math! Oh, and that thing about being up just a few bucks not being worth leaving because of the expense of getting there and/or wasting your time making the trip for just a few moments of play? Would you rather be up $2....or down $500 when you walk in the door of your home. Believe me, THAT is the time your disciplined decision-making shows its enormous value.