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Thread: Deck of cards vs a video poker game

  1. #1
    Just an experiment: I shuffled a deck of playing cards then dealt myself five. I did this about 25 times. Rarely I dealt myself more than a pair.

    I play 25 hands on a video poker machine and amazingly I might get a straight or a flush, and frequently two pair.

    It makes me wonder. Try it yourself before commenting.

  2. #2
    The same with teaching VP programs you can download on your computer. I once drew a high pair w/3 to the royal. When I chose 3/royal a warning screen flashed to let me know that wasn't the mathematical best choice. I overrode the program and hit the royal! I have never forgotten that event, and playing in the real casino world has convinced me it's a pseudo random generator controlled place. I don't care what the ap'ers say on this forum- math cannot replace luck.

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by AndrewG View Post
    Just an experiment: I shuffled a deck of playing cards then dealt myself five. I did this about 25 times. Rarely I dealt myself more than a pair.

    I play 25 hands on a video poker machine and amazingly I might get a straight or a flush, and frequently two pair.

    It makes me wonder. Try it yourself before commenting.
    Odds of all dealt hands here:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poke...rd_poker_hands

  4. #4
    Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
    The same with teaching VP programs you can download on your computer. I once drew a high pair w/3 to the royal. When I chose 3/royal a warning screen flashed to let me know that wasn't the mathematical best choice. I overrode the program and hit the royal! I have never forgotten that event, and playing in the real casino world has convinced me it's a pseudo random generator controlled place. I don't care what the ap'ers say on this forum- math cannot replace luck.
    Slingshot, you are 1000% correct. Luck trumps skill. Skill keeps you in the game and gives you a much better chance but no amount of skill will replace the luck involved in drawing or hitting a royal or a 4OAK. To have a winning session you absolutely must connect on a royal or have more than your fair share of 4OAK's. Grinding your way to a winning session with only flushes and full houses will not get you to the winners circle. Simply can't be done.

  5. #5
    I'll ask this again. Two of us are dealt Ah, Kh, Qh, Jh, 6c. We both toss the 6 but one draws 5d and the other draws 10h. Who's luckier? Most of you will say the guy that got the 10h. But why? Just because one result pays and the other doesn't? Both cards had the exact same odds to appear.

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    I'll ask this again. Two of us are dealt Ah, Kh, Qh, Jh, 6c. We both toss the 6 but one draws 5d and the other draws 10h. Who's luckier? Most of you will say the guy that got the 10h. But why? Just because one result pays and the other doesn't? Both cards had the exact same odds to appear.
    Surely you jest. I'll take the 10h while you ponder the mysteries of the universe.

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    I'll ask this again. Two of us are dealt Ah, Kh, Qh, Jh, 6c. We both toss the 6 but one draws 5d and the other draws 10h. Who's luckier? Most of you will say the guy that got the 10h. But why? Just because one result pays and the other doesn't? Both cards had the exact same odds to appear.
    The "luck" lies within the deal and the draw, and how they relate. Those four initial cards were lucky to get in and of itself, based on the mathematical odds of getting them on a deal. The fact that the poor slob who drew a higher mathematically probable (based on the number of remaining non-paying cards in the deck)1-in-47 non-royal card lost and the player who drew a 1-in-47 chance royal card won big, is called good luck.

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
    The same with teaching VP programs you can download on your computer. I once drew a high pair w/3 to the royal. When I chose 3/royal a warning screen flashed to let me know that wasn't the mathematical best choice. I overrode the program and hit the royal! I have never forgotten that event, and playing in the real casino world has convinced me it's a pseudo random generator controlled place. I don't care what the ap'ers say on this forum- math cannot replace luck.
    And luck cannot replace math. Eventually luck runs out, but the math never does. Luck IS just math, it's called variance.

    When you get lucky or unlucky in any situation in life it's just variance and odds. That's why some people seem to get luckier than others over and over in life they just happen to keep putting them self in good situations. It's all a numbers game.

    Everything averages out one guy gets unlucky his entire life no matter what he does, loses his job, gets hit by a car, loses a finger etc, meanwhile another guy finds A multimillion-dollar painting at the Thrift Shop, happens to meet a supermodel that likes him, invest in the right stock etc.
    Last edited by AxelWolf; 10-16-2019 at 12:33 PM.

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    I'll ask this again. Two of us are dealt Ah, Kh, Qh, Jh, 6c. We both toss the 6 but one draws 5d and the other draws 10h. Who's luckier? Most of you will say the guy that got the 10h. But why? Just because one result pays and the other doesn't? Both cards had the exact same odds to appear.
    The dude who drew the 5d is luckier (assumes $1 denom, 5 coin 9/6 DDB)- he doesn't have to worry about management scrutiny for too much winning (i.e. getting 86'ed) nor does he have to fill out a W2G ;.
    Last edited by tableplay; 10-16-2019 at 03:45 PM.

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
    The same with teaching VP programs you can download on your computer. I once drew a high pair w/3 to the royal. When I chose 3/royal a warning screen flashed to let me know that wasn't the mathematical best choice. I overrode the program and hit the royal! I have never forgotten that event, and playing in the real casino world has convinced me it's a pseudo random generator controlled place. I don't care what the ap'ers say on this forum- math cannot replace luck.
    I once held a pair of tens and at the instant I hit the draw button I seen the 3-Card Royal in the hand so had to live with the conequences. Out jumped ten-ten to make quads. As you can see, sling, I've never forgotten that event. I got lucky as hell on a bad move. But I still don't hold a pair of tens over a 3-Card Royal.

    By your logic making the wrong move causes good luck and making the right move causes bad luck. The truth is you can't control luck. It just happens whether its bad or good. But you can go ahead and stick in a pin it it if you want to. Oh, and play the lottery. Just takes luck, right?
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  11. #11
    I was trying to make a point. It is that video poker games give me the appearance of not being random at all. In fact in all the years I've played cards I've never had five cards in my hand that made a royal flush but I've had my fair share of royals on machines. Likewise I've never had cards in my hand that made a straight flush, nor have I ever been dealt cards that were four to the royal. Yet, these happen in video poker.

  12. #12
    Mr Crimm I would not hold a pair of tens which is a non paying hand when there is three to the royal. Those two other royal cards if paired would be at least a paying hand. Holding TT requires that you at least draw another T or another pair.

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by AndrewG View Post
    I was trying to make a point. It is that video poker games give me the appearance of not being random at all. In fact in all the years I've played cards I've never had five cards in my hand that made a royal flush but I've had my fair share of royals on machines. Likewise I've never had cards in my hand that made a straight flush, nor have I ever been dealt cards that were four to the royal. Yet, these happen in video poker.
    I play a thousand hands per hour at video poker. At a kitchen table with a live deck what are you seeing, 30 or 40 hands an hour?
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  14. #14
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by AndrewG View Post
    I was trying to make a point. It is that video poker games give me the appearance of not being random at all. In fact in all the years I've played cards I've never had five cards in my hand that made a royal flush but I've had my fair share of royals on machines. Likewise I've never had cards in my hand that made a straight flush, nor have I ever been dealt cards that were four to the royal. Yet, these happen in video poker.
    I play a thousand hands per hour at video poker. At a kitchen table with a live deck what are you seeing, 30 or 40 hands an hour?
    I've been playing with decks of cards for forty years. I've never had a royal or even four to the royal with a deck of cards. I might get four to the royal two or three times during a casino trip.

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by AndrewG View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by AndrewG View Post
    I was trying to make a point. It is that video poker games give me the appearance of not being random at all. In fact in all the years I've played cards I've never had five cards in my hand that made a royal flush but I've had my fair share of royals on machines. Likewise I've never had cards in my hand that made a straight flush, nor have I ever been dealt cards that were four to the royal. Yet, these happen in video poker.
    I play a thousand hands per hour at video poker. At a kitchen table with a live deck what are you seeing, 30 or 40 hands an hour?
    I've been playing with decks of cards for forty years. I've never had a royal or even four to the royal with a deck of cards. I might get four to the royal two or three times during a casino trip.
    You're not really giving us enough information. 40 years is meaningless it's important to know how many hours. How many hours per week do you play poker on what game are you playing? If you put in enough time over that 40 years it seems highly unlikely you've never gotten 4 to the royal. As Mickey pointed out already the number of hands you are playing with cards versus a video poker machine are significant. One hour of video poker play equals over 30 hours of Live play. So it can take you thousands of hours to get a royal flush. Even if you played a hundred thousand hands with live cards very possible for you not to have gotten a royal flush. Video poker machines are even more random than a hand Shuffle.

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
    The same with teaching VP programs you can download on your computer. I once drew a high pair w/3 to the royal. When I chose 3/royal a warning screen flashed to let me know that wasn't the mathematical best choice. I overrode the program and hit the royal! I have never forgotten that event, and playing in the real casino world has convinced me it's a pseudo random generator controlled place. I don't care what the ap'ers say on this forum- math cannot replace luck.
    I once held a pair of tens and at the instant I hit the draw button I seen the 3-Card Royal in the hand so had to live with the conequences. Out jumped ten-ten to make quads. As you can see, sling, I've never forgotten that event. I got lucky as hell on a bad move. But I still don't hold a pair of tens over a 3-Card Royal.

    By your logic making the wrong move causes good luck and making the right move causes bad luck. The truth is you can't control luck. It just happens whether its bad or good. But you can go ahead and stick in a pin it it if you want to. Oh, and play the lottery. Just takes luck, right?
    That's NOT my logic. I've studied the holds, practiced with the programs before. Three to the royal has a chance to make 14 hands. A high card with a suited 10 has the possibility of quads with either card-Ive hit 4 10s before.

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
    The same with teaching VP programs you can download on your computer. I once drew a high pair w/3 to the royal. When I chose 3/royal a warning screen flashed to let me know that wasn't the mathematical best choice. I overrode the program and hit the royal! I have never forgotten that event, and playing in the real casino world has convinced me it's a pseudo random generator controlled place. I don't care what the ap'ers say on this forum- math cannot replace luck.
    I once held a pair of tens and at the instant I hit the draw button I seen the 3-Card Royal in the hand so had to live with the conequences. Out jumped ten-ten to make quads. As you can see, sling, I've never forgotten that event. I got lucky as hell on a bad move. But I still don't hold a pair of tens over a 3-Card Royal.

    By your logic making the wrong move causes good luck and making the right move causes bad luck. The truth is you can't control luck. It just happens whether its bad or good. But you can go ahead and stick in a pin it it if you want to. Oh, and play the lottery. Just takes luck, right?
    That's NOT my logic. I've studied the holds, practiced with the programs before. Three to the royal has a chance to make 14 hands. A high card with a suited 10 has the possibility of quads with either card-Ive hit 4 10s before.
    I've played multi-millions of hands of video poker. I've hit quads the same way you have more than one time. Twice I've hit 3 royals within four hours. I've gone a quarter million hands without a royal. I've hit royals every way you can, including throwing the whole hand away and making a royal. I once made 4 deuces and on the very next hand made 4 deuces again. I've gone 4400 games between quads.

    On your hand the probability of making 4 tens on the draw is 1 in 16,215. Same with making 4 aces from it. It will happen to everybody if they play long enough.

    Sling, there are some forces going on in your head. Confirmation bias. Negative reinforcement. Selective memory. To name a few.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  18. #18
    Ignore my comment about the many years of playing cards. Just look at my initial post.

    I shuffled a deck of playing cards then dealt myself five. I did this about 25 times. Rarely I dealt myself more than a pair.

    I play 25 hands on a video poker machine and amazingly I might get a straight or a flush, and frequently two pair.


    Now, please get a deck of cards and shuffle and deal 25 hands. Compare that to the first 25 hands you play on a video poker machine. Report back.

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by AndrewG View Post
    Ignore my comment about the many years of playing cards. Just look at my initial post.

    I shuffled a deck of playing cards then dealt myself five. I did this about 25 times. Rarely I dealt myself more than a pair.

    I play 25 hands on a video poker machine and amazingly I might get a straight or a flush, and frequently two pair.


    Now, please get a deck of cards and shuffle and deal 25 hands. Compare that to the first 25 hands you play on a video poker machine. Report back.
    This site attracts 'em. I tell you what.

  20. #20
    I have a few comments and a question:

    I consider myself as having had better-than-average luck in video poker and life, and even much better-than-average luck on certain things. In short, this has contributed to my being a clear over-achiever in most things I've done or attempted to do. If you knew me as a teenager, you'd have pegged me as someone who did not have much of a future.

    That all changed, of course, starting when the Govt. got their hands on me. Best thing that could've ever happen. And while the majority of the assholes I went to Jr. High and High School with have been saddled with ex-wives and miserable/failed relationships, my wife and I celebrated our 41st wedding anniversary yesterday and today.

    My question: is my long and happy marriage the result of some sort of an algorithm of numbers that says "some people HAVE to make it....or is it just simple good fortune"?

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