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Thread: Nothing is impossible

  1. #161
    Originally Posted by Deech View Post
    Serious sports betting, when trusting others (sport services), is difficult. I did very well with Mike Warren for three years (in the mid 80"s) and the fourth year hurt badly. You never knew why picks were made. You had to trust them. While personally, I did not lose money, I have no idea why individuals take advise without knowledge backing the advise. We would not do this in other endeavors but we will do it involving sports and opinions.

    Now, as an absolute idiot, I am in a high end money pool out of Scranton, PA, and I have done well, but out of the money. Four picks per week. I came in fourth place in my first three years (they pay out for three places) out of 75 individuals. Tough losses. Tied for first place this year with a pedestrian 32-19-1 record.

    I agree with Redietz. I do not know what a +EV is. I do this for fun, but, damn, I would love to have an absolute positive experience.

    If that's 32-19-1 ATS, there's nothing pedestrian about it. That is an excellent record.

    I have nothing positive to say about Mike Warren (AKA Laskey), he of the founding of 900 phone services.

    But I do have something positive to say about Scranton!! That's right up the road (I-81) from my old hometown -- good old Frackville, PA. Both part of the anthracite (hard) coal region. Molly Maguire country.

    Deech, if you haven't ever looked up Mike Stockunas, he is an acquaintance of mine from the area. Google him...lots of fun facts. He just got out last year (minimum security -- he was in the same place as Michael Douglas' son).

  2. #162
    My brother gave me two names; Mitch Marion and Howie Pomarantz. While I was the sad loser, my brother won twice (won the whole pool) on his own card in the last four years (number one) and won twice on best bets in the last four years. They laughingly did not like winners from the West Point area.

  3. #163
    I have no idea what the arguments is about as far as calling it plus EV sports betting? I used the term because somebody could be betting with an advantage and still run bad so there record really is meaningless at that point. And the opposite of that... someone could be betting horrible stuff and they could have an awesome winning record(winning bettor) and that's even more meaningless, as far as I'm concerned. There's lots of ways to get plus EV sports betting certainly more than Red had mentioned.

    I'm fine with professional sports bettor if somebody makes a living betting Sports. Someone might not make a living betting Sports but a majority of their Sports bets might be +EV and they might not be what I would consider sharps. I just use that term to cover all situations where someone has an advantage betting Sports.

  4. #164
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    So I have only placed bets with 1 entity in past 10 years. I found a local book who offers juice free parlays but only on the lines that were even, so they ended up on on .05. I'd go take pinny's line and round robin'd the fuck outta every edge so that I got the juice free parlays. Over 1 thousand wagers I made probably 1-2% per bet. Came within a hair of making 5% had a round robin parlay hit every leg. I know nothing about sports but I know enough that when someone found me a bookie and this was their promo, I exploited the crap out of it.

    How am I not an advantage sports bettor? I cherry pick my spots and don't wager if I don't expect a positive outcome.

    There are always unknowns and edges are never precise, but not sure how I wouldn't be considered an advantage sports bettor even if I almost never bet.

    PS I don't go around calling myself that, but for the sake of this discussion. I would place a wager if I happened across one but I'm not that much into it outside of proving a point. It was a lot of fun sweating all the bets and if I knew how to find such a dopey bookie I'd surely do it again.

    TBH I can't remember exactly what I was doing. They put their numbers on .05 type lines, but then pinny doesn't do that. So these bets were always likely off compared to pinny but also were juice free. "Juice Free Parlays" was the promo for their book. I gave a little other action. I should go play poker with those guys one day and see if they had any clue, I was cut off because of affiliate had a lot of bad debts and they weren't making $$ off me. At least that is what I was told. I'm sure I would have won more had I been given more time.
    That's pretty cool dude, I think calling you an advantage Sports better would be a perfect description.

    I don't think I even ever heard the term Advantage Player until about somewhere around 2010-20012. Before that you just refer to someone as pro (professional gambler was assumed and that's what the casinos called it and that's how you filed.) I didn't really like the term advantage player cuz it sounded like you were taking advantage of the casinos and I just felt that sounded a little negative. Advantage player seems to have taken off and that's what people know it has and that's what they refer to it as, so when in Rome. For the most part people haven't really heard of the word advantage player and if they have it really hasn't registered with them and they wouldn't even know what you were referring to. You would have to follow it up with professional gambler before they would know what you were talking about. I'm pretty sure the only person in my family or friends that don't know much about the gambling industry is my nephew and the rest of them but have no idea what I was talking about if I said Advantage player. PS I really hate the word vulture and Vulturing, it's such a Negative term. It's something a pissed-off Casino customer would describe someone picking up bonuses as. I was hoping people wood use a different word like sniping or something else. I tried to get the book to catch on but it didn't seem to work. for some reason I think machine Hustler sounds better and vulture. I rarely do that so I guess it really doesn't matter much however that seems there's a lot of lumping in of all different types of Advantage players including but not limited to credit hustling.
    Last edited by AxelWolf; 12-02-2019 at 07:10 AM.

  5. #165
    Yeah, +EV doesn't seem so cut and dry with sports betting. Typical sports betting seems more like opinion. And if you are good at it you can make a profit. The test is a number of years as someone like Redietz seems to have done.

    That said, it seems like some of the things that Mike (Wizard) does with sports betting might be more along the lines and qualify as +EV. He is basing it on mathematics of past events, rather than evaluating teams and personell. That seems more about math and +EV. (To me)

  6. #166
    Originally Posted by Deech View Post
    My brother gave me two names; Mitch Marion and Howie Pomarantz. While I was the sad loser, my brother won twice (won the whole pool) on his own card in the last four years (number one) and won twice on best bets in the last four years. They laughingly did not like winners from the West Point area.
    All I can say is appreciate what you and your brother have done, because it is rare. I think there is an overblown idea that there exists a reasonable population of sports bettors who can do this regularly, and this is simply not true. For example, if you tally up the five-per-week SuperBook Contest consensus (most common) plays of the last 90 weeks, and bearing in mind that these are the people one would think are serious edge-seekers, they have no edge. None. Zero. You'll find the same for the first-year Circa Contest selections this year thus far.

    Axel, I didn't mean to get into another lengthy "+EV sports bettor debate." I just think it's not correct to use the phrase because people walk away thinking there are math concepts that render +EV sports plays common. Unless you run into freakish events, one-in-ten-thousand things like no-juice parlays or the occasional wrong number, there are no math-certified +EV plays outside of arbitrage, bonuses, and rebates. Now there is absolutely nothing wrong with using arbitrage, bonuses, and rebates as your means of being a winning sports bettor. The only guy I knew who I believe won every single year (for 30 years plus) betting sports probably made half his money through arbitrage. But that's not what people think of when somebody says "+EV sports bettor." They think of handicapping.

    Bonuses and rebates for sports betting these days are really for the absolutely biggest under-the-radar whale bettors in Las Vegas (and you, me, and the public ain't them). Offshore, anybody can get rebates and bonuses, but most have relatively low limits. Maybe this will change as states start to offer bigger bonuses and rebates as they compete for bettors. We can keep our fingers crossed.

    I just don't like applying a math term to a game of opinion. I think people get the wrong impression.

    P.S. KewlJ, we used to call those guys "trendsvestites." Look, whatever math and programming skills Mike has, believe me, sports numbers are data mined instantly and constantly by people with much more experience than Mike. And they have been for more than 20 years. It is true that today you can find holes in some of the sub-bets (quarters, halves) with this kind of trends analysis, but those sub-bets get adjusted very quickly. And the amounts you can get down on these sub-bets are low. Sub-bets lines are usually simple unadjusted algorithms, and they can be attacked, but the window of opportunity is usually limited.
    Last edited by redietz; 12-02-2019 at 07:32 AM.

  7. #167
    I would agree with Redietz that +EV when it comes to sports betting, or even my beloved horse betting, is misleading. I don't know what type of work, study, analysis, etc. Redietz uses, but I'm sure he puts in a lot of time and effort. That, plus many years of experience, may allow him to win. But I do not consider knowledge, hard work, experience, etc. to create a +EV. You are still mathematically going against an edge.

    My edge in horse racing was always my many years of studying breeding. That is not just knowing the hot sires. It means understanding what family lines when crossed with other family lines result in fast horses. But this edge has diminished anyway because everyone has books rating the stallions now--I used to have it all in my head. But to the point, I didn't ever consider my knowledge and experience as constituting a +EV.

    Now, as a fairly large bettor, I am able to negotiate rebates that are higher than the general public can receive. I still don't consider a wager to be +EV, even where the rebate is as high as 11%, as the house take is still 20% or more. So while I have an advantage over other bettors in that I receive a higher rebate, I don't feel that makes it a + EV, at least not mathematically.

  8. #168
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    I would agree with Redietz that +EV when it comes to sports betting, or even my beloved horse betting, is misleading. I don't know what type of work, study, analysis, etc. Redietz uses, but I'm sure he puts in a lot of time and effort. That, plus many years of experience, may allow him to win. But I do not consider knowledge, hard work, experience, etc. to create a +EV. You are still mathematically going against an edge.

    My edge in horse racing was always my many years of studying breeding. That is not just knowing the hot sires. It means understanding what family lines when crossed with other family lines result in fast horses. But this edge has diminished anyway because everyone has books rating the stallions now--I used to have it all in my head. But to the point, I didn't ever consider my knowledge and experience as constituting a +EV.

    Now, as a fairly large bettor, I am able to negotiate rebates that are higher than the general public can receive. I still don't consider a wager to be +EV, even where the rebate is as high as 11%, as the house take is still 20% or more. So while I have an advantage over other bettors in that I receive a higher rebate, I don't feel that makes it a + EV, at least not mathematically.
    Thanks, regnis. You said in a couple of lines what I've been blundering about. You are still mathematically going against an edge when you handicap unless you encounter some freakish anomaly like no juice parlays...or you're using arbitrage, rebates and bonuses.

    By the way, that Air Force at 11-1 to win the Mountain West was a bummer. They did exactly as I thought, only that first MW game was the whole enchilada. It's a shame the QB got hurt in the second quarter. Boise was better, but they would have had a chance. Air Force finished 10-2 overall and couldn't make the MW playoff, which unfortunately is what I thought would happen.

  9. #169
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    PS I really hate the word vulture and Vulturing, it's such a Negative term.
    One older lady said "it's the surfers, don't let them get that game". I guess she forgot the proper term.

  10. #170
    This vulture vs AP vs pro gambler is funny. So an old close friend of mine who is also a professional gambler. He started to get into slot stuff previous summer. We first started using the word vulture because it is negative. It is kinda funny in that way. Calling other people vultures and referring to yourself as that. Vulturing the verb. We only knew of ultimate-X, or at least thats all I knew at the time. That stage sorta passed. I think now AP seems to be used the most as it is an all inclusive thing, but seems to be slot heavy. If you aren't doing the slot stuff then usually there is a better word for it. Professional gambler can be different things though. A bookie can be a professional gambler. Advantage Player says it the best though, but AP is so short. If people don't know what it is, they will likely not ask and well thats usually just fine.

  11. #171
    My new term will be 'casino hacker'. If one thinks of hacker culture it is basically the exact thing higher level APs do. You have different tiers. The guys who discover/improve things and then the tons of guys who read about stuff and copy it. They're all hackers. Then the casino is like software/hardware providers in that they come up with counter measures when needed. As time has gone on, things have tightened up in terms of what can be exploited due to the security measures/changes of the casino.
    Troll troller extraordinaire.

  12. #172
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    My new term will be 'casino hacker'. If one thinks of hacker culture it is basically the exact thing higher level APs do. You have different tiers. The guys who discover/improve things and then the tons of guys who read about stuff and copy it. They're all hackers. Then the casino is like software/hardware providers in that they come up with counter measures when needed. As time has gone on, things have tightened up in terms of what can be exploited due to the security measures/changes of the casino.
    Just my own thoughts, but when I hear the term professional gambler, I think of the old wild west days. There were people described as professional gamblers. They were usually cheats at poker.

    I always associate professional gambler as beating other players. Where as I think of AP's (advantage players) has finding away to gain an advantage over the house or casino. I also like to think that real AP is finding a LEGAL way to beat the house. Although I can't say that some illegal, or grey area things don't technically qualify as advantage play.

    As for the distinction between guys discover and improve AP plays and techniques, there is a distinction. Guys who discover things, especially in todays environment with all the new games and side bets and such are usually superior math guys. Guys I sometimes jokingly refer to as Gambling Math Geeks. But I have great respect for that kind of ability and wish I had that.

    I am in the guys that copy camp. And that is ok too. I and other are happy to take things learned from other players, current and past and apply these techniques. I do try to put my own spin on some things but everything I do is copied as you put it, or a phrase I like better is learned from other AP's.

    Here's a little story that kind of exemplified me. For the past 3-4 months I have been doing something outside my usual card counting norm. It is blackjack related. I didn't exactly stumble onto it, because I went looking for this particular advantage, purchasing equipment and such to find it after reading coded accounts that it might be there. You know something not discussed publicly.

    So when I found this opportunity, and I am not sure I have discovered all the possibilities with this , but I found part at least, I kind of thought wow, I finally "discovered" something that few others seem to know about. I was pretty proud of myself. I might have pulled a muscle in my arm, patting myself on my back.

    So, it turns out, quite a few other AP's know about this specific opportunity, probably have for a while now. It is not some great, high end, high advantage type play, it is more a grind thing similar to card counting in that regard, so there aren't many, or any players doing this exclusively. It is more just another tool in the shed type thing, but it was a little downer to find out I hasn't discovered this great new thing. Just as usual, I was late to the game. Running to catch the train. But I am ok with that.

  13. #173
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    This vulture vs AP vs pro gambler is funny. So an old close friend of mine who is also a professional gambler. He started to get into slot stuff previous summer. We first started using the word vulture because it is negative. It is kinda funny in that way. Calling other people vultures and referring to yourself as that. Vulturing the verb. We only knew of ultimate-X, or at least thats all I knew at the time. That stage sorta passed. I think now AP seems to be used the most as it is an all inclusive thing, but seems to be slot heavy. If you aren't doing the slot stuff then usually there is a better word for it. Professional gambler can be different things though. A bookie can be a professional gambler. Advantage Player says it the best though, but AP is so short. If people don't know what it is, they will likely not ask and well thats usually just fine.
    I do know some bookmakers who will make the argument that since they almost always take positions on games (not balancing bets on either side and laying off), they are "professional gamblers." I don't really argue against them, as technically I guess it's considered "gambling" whether or not you have the edge or the opposition does.

  14. #174
    Newbie question: I have always wondered, will I get a better deal betting online or in the Nevada casinos?

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