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Thread: Long term and short term

  1. #21
    Originally Posted by DGenBen View Post
    Originally Posted by AndrewG View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Here are the 99% confidence intervals (1% chance of being outside this confidence interval) of the house edge (-1.41%) as a function of the number of pass line (or come) bet resolutions:
    Name:  
Views: 
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    Thanks for this information but it has nothing to do with my question or my point. Don't the stats in the chart posted by Mr Tableplay relate to all "points"?

    I'm simply saying that each roll of the dice is resolved with each roll, so there is no long term.

    Set the point of 6 and you have a five out of six chance of winning on the next roll. It's that simple.

    I'm starting to suspect that you are all very smart people who cannot look at the simple question and must report a complicated answer.

    Ask an expert if it's raining and you'll get a dissertation on precipitation.

    The long term is why casinos stay in business. If they did not have a long term advantage they would have to close their doors.

    The short term is why people keep gambling. You can win against the house edge on a single roll of the dice, but the casino will always (99.99999999999999999999999999999999999% of the time) come out ahead over billions of rolls.

    Honestly not sure what it is you are having trouble understanding.
    You don't understand.

    In craps the casino has the edge on every right way roll. It has nothing to do with short term or long term.

    The casino also has an edge on the first don't come or don't pass roll, and then the casino is compensated by paying less when odds are added to the DP or DC flat bet.

    Long term or short term doesn't matter. The odds don't change whether it's one roll or 100,000 rolls.

    What else do you argue about here?

    And just in case craps is too complicated for you, when in the short term does a roulette player have an edge?
    Last edited by AndrewG; 11-21-2019 at 07:40 PM.

  2. #22
    You are defining odds the same way as results.

    The odds are the same on every roll yes but if you only make one roll the odds are not relevant to that single roll only the result is relevant and that is the difference.

    You seem to be saying that the long term and the short term is the same because the long term results are made up of many short term results.

    Yes this is true, but thats why we have the terms “Long Term and Short Term” to differentiate between short term events where skewed results are possible (and even likely) and long term where the results most closely match the odds.

    Saying there is no difference between long term because the long term is made up of a series of short term events is like saying there is no difference between 4 billion people and an individual because a population of 4 billion people is made up of single individual people. Do you see the problem here?

    So yes there is no long term if you combine all the short terms into one. You can call long term a series of short terms if you want but thats just semantics. Yes the odds are the same but the results from short term events will be much different than from long term events (or a series of short term events if thats what you wanna call it.)

  3. #23
    It's clear AndrewG asked a question whose answer he had already decided he knew. Was there any answer that would have convinced AndrewG he was wrong? Not likely. Why will AndrewG not consult a professor? Probably because that would put him in a role where the other individual is an established authority and he is not. Therefore, if they disagree, it would be clear that AndrewG was wrong.

    If you stay on anonymous terms on a forum debating other anonymous people, even those who have expertise, you are in a psychologically safe space where you can maintain the fašade and self-illusion that you are not wrong. Anonymous posters lack credentials you are forced to respect.

    People need to believe what they need to believe. No sense wasting time if nothing said is likely to convince them.

  4. #24
    Red, if you claim to believe Andrew is anonymous, please explain how it is that you know he is not as much as or even more of an authority on this subject.

  5. #25
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Red, if you claim to believe Andrew is anonymous, please explain how it is that you know he is not as much as or even more of an authority on this subject.
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post

    Originally Posted by AndrewG View Post
    Set the point of 6 and you have a five out of six chance of winning on the next roll. It's that simple.
    No, I'm afraid it's not that simple. The probability of making your point of 6 on the next roll is 5/36 not 5/6.

  6. #26
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post

    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post

    Originally Posted by AndrewG View Post
    Set the point of 6 and you have a five out of six chance of winning on the next roll. It's that simple.
    No, I'm afraid it's not that simple. The probability of making your point of 6 on the next roll is 5/36 not 5/6.
    Here we have an example of someone who does not know how the game of craps is played.

    If your point is six, on the next roll any combination showing six will be a winner. Those combinations are:

    1,5
    5,1
    2,4
    4,2
    3,3

    There are five winning combinations.

    The six combinations that would make your bet on 6 lose are:

    1,6
    6,1
    2,5
    5,2
    3,4
    4,3

    Any other number -- 2,3,4,5,8,9,10,11,12 -- would have no result on your bet on six.

    As I suspected, a lack of knowledge of the game and just parroting what has been said before.

    Mr Redietz, do these college professors play craps?

  7. #27
    Originally Posted by AndrewG View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post

    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post


    No, I'm afraid it's not that simple. The probability of making your point of 6 on the next roll is 5/36 not 5/6.
    Here we have an example of someone who does not know how the game of craps is played.

    If your point is six, on the next roll any combination showing six will be a winner. Those combinations are:

    1,5
    5,1
    2,4
    4,2
    3,3

    There are five winning combinations.

    The six combinations that would make your bet on 6 lose are:

    1,6
    6,1
    2,5
    5,2
    3,4
    4,3

    Any other number -- 2,3,4,5,8,9,10,11,12 -- would have no result on your bet on six.

    As I suspected, a lack of knowledge of the game and just parroting what has been said before.

    Mr Redietz, do these college professors play craps?
    Yes, but you wrote the probability of winning. Not the probability of not losing - it's right up there in red. You even listed the 5 out of 36 winning combinations yourself. You're a moron.

  8. #28
    Now let's return to my basic and initial point: there is no long term in craps because each roll is a decision maker. The decision could be win, lose or "no decision." But nothing else changes.

    Blackjack is different than craps and roulette and even video poker as the number and denomination of the draw cards will change as more cards are played from the shoe. In a shoe game of blackjack your odds of winning could improve or decline based on the cards already played. Therefore it seems to me the term "long term" has some kind of application.

    But in games like craps and roulette and video poker, nothing changes for the next roll, spin or deal, does it? It's new. All new. With no effect from the previous play and no impact on the next play. THAT IS THE POINT I'M ASKING ABOUT.

    Instead of a response to that point I'm getting the same old arguments, i.e., casinos win in the long term, passline bets face a 1.4% house edge, etc.

    No wonder you all fight each other.

  9. #29
    Originally Posted by AndrewG View Post
    Now let's return to my basic and initial point
    AndrewG, how come you wrote that the probability of hitting the point of six on the next roll is 5/6 when it is actually 5/36 ?

  10. #30
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by AndrewG View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Here we have an example of someone who does not know how the game of craps is played.

    If your point is six, on the next roll any combination showing six will be a winner. Those combinations are:

    1,5
    5,1
    2,4
    4,2
    3,3

    There are five winning combinations.

    The six combinations that would make your bet on 6 lose are:

    1,6
    6,1
    2,5
    5,2
    3,4
    4,3

    Any other number -- 2,3,4,5,8,9,10,11,12 -- would have no result on your bet on six.

    As I suspected, a lack of knowledge of the game and just parroting what has been said before.

    Mr Redietz, do these college professors play craps?
    Yes, but you wrote the probability of winning. Not the probability of not losing - it's right up there in red. You even listed the 5 out of 36 winning combinations yourself. You're a moron.
    You're the moron because when the point is 6 YOU DON'T LOSE WHEN A 2,3,4,5,8,9,10,11, OR 12 IS ROLLED.

  11. #31
    Originally Posted by AndrewG View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by AndrewG View Post

    Here we have an example of someone who does not know how the game of craps is played.

    If your point is six, on the next roll any combination showing six will be a winner. Those combinations are:

    1,5
    5,1
    2,4
    4,2
    3,3

    There are five winning combinations.

    The six combinations that would make your bet on 6 lose are:

    1,6
    6,1
    2,5
    5,2
    3,4
    4,3

    Any other number -- 2,3,4,5,8,9,10,11,12 -- would have no result on your bet on six.

    As I suspected, a lack of knowledge of the game and just parroting what has been said before.

    Mr Redietz, do these college professors play craps?
    Yes, but you wrote the probability of winning. Not the probability of not losing - it's right up there in red. You even listed the 5 out of 36 winning combinations yourself. You're a moron.
    You're the moron because when the point is 6 YOU DON'T LOSE WHEN A 2,3,4,5,8,9,10,11, OR 12 IS ROLLED.
    Here's what you wrote (https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...11#post94711): "Set the point of 6 and you have a five out of six chance of winning on the next roll. It's that simple. "
    That's not true. It's 5/36.
    Last edited by tableplay; 11-22-2019 at 02:59 AM.

  12. #32
    AndrewG wrote:

    "Forgive me if I'm asking an elementary question but I see in your discussions you use long term and short term.

    My question: is there really a long term? Isn't most gambling nothing but short term decisions?

    Example #1 Craps

    The shooter throws the dice. No matter what the previous result was the shooter has, for example, a one in 36 chance of throwing 12. The previous roll has no impact on the current roll and the current roll has no impact on the roll to come. So isn't craps just a series of short term, one roll decisions?"

    That last sentence that you wrote above the answer is yes, and every one of those one roll decisions is random acts 100% of the time. Meaning the odds of all those decision outcomes are already pre determined before hand and the bettor already hopefully knows that he/she is always at a disadvantage. Because the house always holds the edge in craps they relish the long term to pay the bills.

    "Example #2 Video Poker

    The electronic deck is reshuffled with each play. Each play has 52/53 cards. Since each hand is independent where is the long term?"

    Since each and every hand is reshuffled the game is random. The paytables on the screen determine what the house/player edge is based on perfect play of every hand. Skillful players at video poker only play the best games that will give them the already upfront edge or play the games with the least house edge and make it up by using the comp game to put them over the top.

    "Example #3 Six Deck Shoe in Blackjack

    Here it's different. After each hand, the remaining cards will have different totals. So as you approach the cut card for the reshuffle you could argue that you are nearing the long term because there is a finite number of cards available.

    Help me out here."

    Based on the number of decks used in the game there is a finite number of cards available. You can correctly say that every hand played between shuffles is a game in itself, and starts a new game with every new shuffle. The house has a built in house edge which starts with the first hand of the shoe, then based on what composition of cards were played in that first hand the odds constantly change with every subsequently hand because the game is non random. Knowledgeable players who know the true count of the remaining unplayed cards will make bets accordingly and frequently are told to leave the casino and not come back.

    When people ask where is the long run and hopefully balance things out, I say there are no guarantees. A human lifetime is too short of a time frame. The best you can hope for is to play a game that will give you the edge if you play skillfully. Casinos thrive on very small house edges, so can you. Although, there are still great players who end up on the wrong side of the bell curve lifetime just like anything else.
    Last edited by BoSox; 11-22-2019 at 04:42 AM.

  13. #33
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by AndrewG View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post

    Yes, but you wrote the probability of winning. Not the probability of not losing - it's right up there in red. You even listed the 5 out of 36 winning combinations yourself. You're a moron.
    You're the moron because when the point is 6 YOU DON'T LOSE WHEN A 2,3,4,5,8,9,10,11, OR 12 IS ROLLED.
    Here's what you wrote (https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...11#post94711): "Set the point of 6 and you have a five out of six chance of winning on the next roll. It's that simple. "
    That's not true. It's 5/36.
    Clearly you don't play craps. There is,a phrase "no harm, no foul" that applies to neutral numbers, most often craps numbers after the point is established. It also applies to other neutral numbers in the game.

    Craps is a game that consists of either winning or losing the point with various side bets called place bets or horn bets or hard ways.

    I will concede that to someone who doesn't undestand this that your statement can be viewed as correct.

    But what does it have to do with the application of long term or short term? Nothing. You still haven't responded.

    I'd simply like to know if the application of short term or long term to craps is valid. I've gotten every answer but.

  14. #34
    Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    AndrewG wrote:

    "Forgive me if I'm asking an elementary question but I see in your discussions you use long term and short term.

    My question: is there really a long term? Isn't most gambling nothing but short term decisions?

    Example #1 Craps

    The shooter throws the dice. No matter what the previous result was the shooter has, for example, a one in 36 chance of throwing 12. The previous roll has no impact on the current roll and the current roll has no impact on the roll to come. So isn't craps just a series of short term, one roll decisions?"

    That last sentence that you wrote above the answer is yes, and every one of those one roll decisions is random acts 100% of the time. Meaning the odds of all those decision outcomes are already pre determined before hand and the bettor already hopefully knows that he/she is always at a disadvantage. Because the house always holds the edge in craps they relish the long term to pay the bills.

    "Example #2 Video Poker

    The electronic deck is reshuffled with each play. Each play has 52/53 cards. Since each hand is independent where is the long term?"

    Since each and every hand is reshuffled the game is random. The paytables on the screen determine what the house/player edge is based on perfect play of every hand. Skillful players at video poker only play the best games that will give them the already upfront edge or play the games with the least house edge and make it up by using the comp game to put them over the top.

    "Example #3 Six Deck Shoe in Blackjack

    Here it's different. After each hand, the remaining cards will have different totals. So as you approach the cut card for the reshuffle you could argue that you are nearing the long term because there is a finite number of cards available.

    Help me out here."

    Based on the number of decks used in the game there is a finite number of cards available. You can correctly say that every hand played between shuffles is a game in itself, and starts a new game with every new shuffle. The house has a built in house edge which starts with the first hand of the shoe, then based on what composition of cards were played in that first hand the odds constantly change with every subsequently hand because the game is non random. Knowledgeable players who know the true count of the remaining unplayed cards will make bets accordingly and frequently are told to leave the casino and not come back.

    When people ask where is the long run and hopefully balance things out, I say there are no guarantees. A human lifetime is too short of a time frame. The best you can hope for is to play a game that will give you the edge if you play skillfully. Casinos thrive on very small house edges, so can you. Although, there are still great players who end up on the wrong side of the bell curve lifetime just like anything else.
    You too, Mr BoSox? I'm getting every response but an answer to my question.

  15. #35
    I briefly read through this thread although I did read the OP.

    Anyway, it doesn't seem like you're using the word "long term" correctly. The "long term" refers to how many rounds you have to play in order to have an X% chance of being at a certain result or better (if +EV) or being at a certain result or worse (if -EV). Generally that "certain result" is +/-$0. One might ask, "How long do I have to play before I have a 75% of being break even or ahead?" (on a +EV game)

    If you want to see this live in action -- open up an excel spreadsheet. In cell A1, write in without quotes "=RANDBETWEEN(1,2)". In B1, write "=IF(A1=1, 0.95, -1)". In C1 write, "=B1" and in C2 write "=SUM(B2,C1)". Copy and paste A1, B1, and C2 all the way down to row 10,000. This simulates a coin flip where you lose $1 on tails but win $0.95 on heads. On average, you should lose 2.5c ($0.025) per flip. It's 10,000 flips.

    You can scroll to the bottom and look at cell C10000. This would be your result after 10,000 flips on this game. It should be somewhere around -250. Is it positive (it's almost certainly not)? Refresh Excel and it'll come up with a new set of random numbers. See what in cell C10000. Still negative? Keep refreshing. Eventually, it should be clear this number is almost always going to be negative.

    You can look at individual groups of 10, 20, 100, or however many sets of flips as you want. Sure, some will be positive, others will (obviously) be negative. You can even make a chart if you want. That probably will give the most descriptive view of this whole thing. Insert->Chart. Make it a "Line Chart" and for the range write "C1:C10000". You might have to write "=$C$1:$C$10000" depending on if you're using Excel, Google Sheets, or something else. You'll see some ups (and many downs). You'll win some sessions and you'll lose some sessions. But overall the trend is negative.


    Sure, this is a very simple bet with little variance. But the same thing can be done with any bet that has a house edge and you'll notice the same thing -- a downward trend. Some bets have a higher N0 (or long term) while others have a smaller one. It doesn't matter if it's a 0.5% house edge or a 15% house edge -- the more hands you play the more likely you are to be behind.
    #FreeTyde

  16. #36
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Red, if you claim to believe Andrew is anonymous, please explain how it is that you know he is not as much as or even more of an authority on this subject.
    If you want me to put you in touch with a couple of professors who have taught or currently teach math at a university level, no problem, Mr. Singer. But if I'm going to give out their phone numbers to you, you must promise to call them.

    Or you could visit them here. I live about half a mile from ETSU, and one of them lives half a block down the street. I'd be willing to video the Q&A for a podcast. I'm sure it would be hellaciously popular.

    Hey, maybe Alan (thanks, anonymous tipster) could drop in, and the gang could all reassemble!
    Last edited by redietz; 11-22-2019 at 06:38 AM.

  17. #37
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    I briefly read through this thread although I did read the OP.

    Anyway, it doesn't seem like you're using the word "long term" correctly. The "long term" refers to how many rounds you have to play in order to have an X% chance of being at a certain result or better (if +EV) or being at a certain result or worse (if -EV). Generally that "certain result" is +/-$0. One might ask, "How long do I have to play before I have a 75% of being break even or ahead?" (on a +EV game)

    If you want to see this live in action -- open up an excel spreadsheet. In cell A1, write in without quotes "=RANDBETWEEN(1,2)". In B1, write "=IF(A1=1, 0.95, -1)". In C1 write, "=B1" and in C2 write "=SUM(B2,C1)". Copy and paste A1, B1, and C2 all the way down to row 10,000. This simulates a coin flip where you lose $1 on tails but win $0.95 on heads. On average, you should lose 2.5c ($0.025) per flip. It's 10,000 flips.

    You can scroll to the bottom and look at cell C10000. This would be your result after 10,000 flips on this game. It should be somewhere around -250. Is it positive (it's almost certainly not)? Refresh Excel and it'll come up with a new set of random numbers. See what in cell C10000. Still negative? Keep refreshing. Eventually, it should be clear this number is almost always going to be negative.

    You can look at individual groups of 10, 20, 100, or however many sets of flips as you want. Sure, some will be positive, others will (obviously) be negative. You can even make a chart if you want. That probably will give the most descriptive view of this whole thing. Insert->Chart. Make it a "Line Chart" and for the range write "C1:C10000". You might have to write "=$C$1:$C$10000" depending on if you're using Excel, Google Sheets, or something else. You'll see some ups (and many downs). You'll win some sessions and you'll lose some sessions. But overall the trend is negative.


    Sure, this is a very simple bet with little variance. But the same thing can be done with any bet that has a house edge and you'll notice the same thing -- a downward trend. Some bets have a higher N0 (or long term) while others have a smaller one. It doesn't matter if it's a 0.5% house edge or a 15% house edge -- the more hands you play the more likely you are to be behind.
    Thank you Mr RS. Finally, someone responded with a meaningful answer.

  18. #38
    Originally Posted by AndrewG View Post
    Clearly you don't play craps.
    Yes, I have played craps both live and online (to meet wagering requirements). And have used bubble craps extensively to earn and churn free play.

    Originally Posted by AndrewG View Post
    There is,a phrase "no harm, no foul" that applies to neutral numbers, most often craps numbers after the point is established. It also applies to other neutral numbers in the game.
    There are many phrases. Like the above phrase, these phrases have nothing to do with you incorrectly stating that you will win a pass line bet with a point of 6 on the next roll of the dice with a probability of 5/6. Of course, you then tried to obfuscate this with the probability of not losing a pass line bet.

    Originally Posted by AndrewG View Post
    But what does it have to do with the application of long term or short term? Nothing. You still haven't responded.
    I'd simply like to know if the application of short term or long term to craps is valid. I've gotten every answer but.
    I did respond Coach Belly. I showed the 99% confidence interval (that is a 1% chance of falling outside this range/interval) of the house edge for 10,000, and a number of higher pass line bet resolutions. The application of short term is valid for field,hop, and horn bets for example (one and done bets). The application of long term is valid for pass,don't pass,come, don't come,place, and lay bets for example. The application of long term is also valid for a sequence of one and done bets along with a sequence of long term bets as well. An aggregation of bets where the house has an edge will result in the casino making money.
    Last edited by tableplay; 11-22-2019 at 08:18 AM.

  19. #39
    Seems like a perfect time for a re-boot of this:

    You have two 6-sided dice in a cup. You shake the dice, and slam the cup down onto the table, hiding the result. Your partner peeks under the cup, and tells you, truthfully, "At least one of the dice is a 2."

    What is the probability that both dice are showing a 2?
    This should be good for another 30 pages of nothingness.

  20. #40
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    I did respond Coach Belly.
    Not my work, asshole.

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