I found the workshop document highly informative (Adobe acrobat reader required) . . .
https://ccv.net.au/wp-content/upload...-March-017.pdf
I found the workshop document highly informative (Adobe acrobat reader required) . . .
https://ccv.net.au/wp-content/upload...-March-017.pdf
Thanks, that was a good read.
I thought it was mildly interesting that they took for granted the uniformity of MHB hit point distributions (i.e. the "midpoint theorem" as some refer to it).
Survivorship bias.
The AP’s I work with realize when they see these high Must Hit jackpots, they know due to survivorship bias these jackpots are the ones that didn’t hit early or at their midpoints, these are likely to hit late (but can still hit anytime). They construct a new distribution function to arrive at their entry point. They don’t use another “mid point” approach due to tail risk, aka kurtosis or fat tails. They use a CE approach to be safe and many of my buddy’s have sizeable bankrolls but don’t like losing $70K to $100K in one month.
For the 10K Major on the Ainsworths, some places use 15 basis points as the meter movement while others use 10 bp. I’ve been told the RTP range from 93% to 90%, but this is a well guarded secret.
The subsequent mail offers are really nice though.
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