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Thread: Simple Formula

  1. #1
    Some would have you believe you need to be a genius or get help from a genius to get the edge or advantage.
    I believe that if you have the time, money and desire or initiative anyone can beat the Casino or at least make some money.
    Time is just as important as Bankroll.
    You will need to put in the hours to actually get the return on your investment.
    You will need perfect play as well but that is easy enough with a strategy chart.

    Here is one example that has been a play for a very long time.
    Key points as usual are to use multiple cards if possible.
    Better to have the person with you if you can.
    Never put exact amounts in! You want to try to randomize things.
    Try to spread your play around if possible to other machines or games which could decrease your hourly.
    Get your Free Play out or Cash Back out ASAP in case they No Mail you or No Card you.
    Use your comp ASAP as well.

    One of the games will pay you 99.96% return on every 100 dollars you roll through.
    You need to play at the dollar level for this example.
    They have quarters and halves but you will have to cut your earn rate accordingly if you can't afford the dollar level.
    This means if you play perfect you will lose 4 cents on every 100 dollars.
    Remember that perfect play is more important than speed and speed will come with experience.
    I suggest a minimum of a 40,000 dollar cash bank roll.
    Everyone reacts differently to losses so this is actually about comfort level and you will see some swings at the dollar level.

    The card will give you 29 cents back on every 100 dollars.
    You should be able to average 800 hands per hour and that is low in my opinion.
    So this means you are making a quarter on every 100 dollars and you should get 4,000 dollars in an hour which is 10 dollars in cash per hour.
    You will also average about 50 cents comp per 100 rolled through the machine.
    Everyone has to eat so food isn't as bad as you might think.
    These numbers should be more as you play faster with experience.

    You should also get a 1% mailer which means that 40,000 coin will give you 400 per month in Free Play.
    Of course you don't want to put in exact amounts when you play and you don't want perfect amounts in each month.
    You will have to vary this. Sometimes go high and sometimes go low.
    35k to 60k per month should be a good projection.
    Sometimes take off a whole month or just let your card fall off for a few months helps as well.

    For the example let us just say you play 40k per month which should be 10 hours per month at 800 hands per hour.
    Eventually you will get this to 8 hours per month or less.

    So 40,000 coin in gets you 400 Free Play + 125 Cash + 250 Comp = 775 Per Month on 40,000 dollars invested.
    It isn't hard to get this to average out to an 800 dollar return on 40,000 dollars invested which is a 2% return.
    Some scoff at such a low return but I believe that a 2% hammer is a monster when playing it straight.
    As a matter of my opinion a 2% hammer for the player is a fundamental concept.
    800 hands per hour will earn 75 total per hour. (some of you don't count comp as cash)
    1000 hpr = 96.
    1200 hpr = 118.
    If you want a cleaner example and easier math just think in terms of a return of 1% or 1.5% or 2%.
    So at 2% if you are putting in 5000 dollars per hour which is 1000 hands per hour you will make a total of 100 cash/comp per hour.
    Things are easier if you use round numbers and if you are worried about it or doing it on the fly just go low.
    You know that the game will give you between 1.5% or 2% return but you don't want to calculate the exact amount.
    So just use the 1.5% example and you realize you are at 75 cash/comp per hour at the minimum.

    This all has to be adjusted for your speed and time you put in.
    You may want to put in more hours which will decrease your total hourly but give you more longevity.
    The game is always a win so you will be making money even if you take a pay cut.
    You may want to drop down to a 99.54% return game as well and find some playable reels to spread your play around.
    A little pit play can help as well if you want.

    Many factors to list and adjust but this is just a simple example trying to get someone started in the right direction.
    You want to try to find something like this or better and rotate.
    The more rotation the better.
    The more you play the more they pay!

    Always remember if you are doing this in Vegas you should never pay cash for Food.
    Food should always be comped from somewhere.
    Many of these places are changing and if you are showing a win they won't comp you.
    If you are losing a bunch on your card it might be a good idea to use another card and keep that loss on yours.
    That is a little bit more tricky and depends on a case by case basis.
    Last edited by monet; 01-13-2020 at 04:54 PM.

  2. #2
    monet, just curious what happens to all of those percentages and numbers you gave when the player receives some taxable hand pays jackpots that are a MUST to keep those percentages where they hopefully at least balance out?

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    monet, just curious what happens to all of those percentages and numbers you gave when the player receives some taxable hand pays jackpots that are a MUST to keep those percentages where they hopefully at least balance out?
    Most of the time you are playing a losing game.
    For this example the win is in the card and mail.
    At the end of the year your win/loss statement will show a loss.
    If you are worried about taxes you should already know how to counter W2Gs.
    Tax Lessons are another department or thread/forum.
    Tipping Lessons are another department as well.
    The more you tip the more you lose in most situations.
    Sometimes tipping can make you more money but that is not a simple formula.
    Last edited by monet; 01-13-2020 at 05:03 PM.

  4. #4
    That is a grind.

    Here’s how the real world works for bonus hustlers. There is a Pareto distribution. The top 5% to 20% of bonus hustlers make up 50% to 80% of the profits bonus hustlers make in one night.

    Usually, the top 3 to 5 plays make up 50% to 80% of the profits for the night.

    The rest of the night is just a grind for just about everyone.

    I never play for comps since I make it a habit not to eat or sleep in the casino. I never play for mailers ... more than half of my monthly free play is wasted. I do play a lot of -EV games during promo’s that get me over 100%.

    So I will end with a story about the tightest bonus hustler I know. This guy almost always makes money each night. He walks away from a ton of marginal plays. If the variance is too high, he walks away as well. This guy can start with $60 and walk out the night up $300. He is extremely choosy. Most APs laugh at him passing up +EV plays but they stopped laughing when he turns $100 to $1,000+ during prime time and his ticket almost always goes positive CONSISTENTLY. His secret ... he knows the games very well and only choose the best plays. He is the opposite of a grinder and does not use a player’s card so he is invisible to their tracking system ... no comps, no mailers, no free food, no hotel stays, etc. He puts his time in but does not have the up and down swings that bonus hustlers face each night.

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by Ex-AP View Post
    That is a grind.
    The racetrack crowd is the world brought down to size, life grinding against death and losing.

    ---------------------

    If you're going to try, go all the way.
    Otherwise don't even start.
    This could mean losing girlfriends, wives, relatives, jobs, and maybe your mind.
    It could mean not eating for three or four days.
    It could mean freezing on a park bench.
    It could mean jail. It could mean derision.
    It could mean mockery, isolation. Isolation is the gift.
    All the others are a test of your endurance.
    Of how much you really want to do it.
    And you'll do it, despite rejection in the worst odds.
    And it will be better than anything else you can imagine.
    If you're going to try, go all the way. There is no other feeling like that.
    You will be alone with the gods. And the nights will flame with fire.
    You will ride life straight to perfect laughter.
    It's the only good fight there is.

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by Ex-AP View Post
    That is a grind.
    The racetrack crowd is the world brought down to size, life grinding against death and losing.

    ---------------------

    If you're going to try, go all the way.
    Otherwise don't even start.
    This could mean losing girlfriends, wives, relatives, jobs, and maybe your mind.
    It could mean not eating for three or four days.
    It could mean freezing on a park bench.
    It could mean jail. It could mean derision.
    It could mean mockery, isolation. Isolation is the gift.
    All the others are a test of your endurance.
    Of how much you really want to do it.
    And you'll do it, despite rejection in the worst odds.
    And it will be better than anything else you can imagine.
    If you're going to try, go all the way. There is no other feeling like that.
    You will be alone with the gods. And the nights will flame with fire.
    You will ride life straight to perfect laughter.
    It's the only good fight there is.
    I have to admit that I got really lucky when I started in the AP world. Made a ton of good friends and met some of the smartest people in the business, PhD’s in Physics, Math, Comp Sci, etc and some of the best programmers you will meet.

    Without these people teaching me the ropes, I would not have the success I have had for past 20+ years. We all started with Piggy Bankin’, Sigma Gaming’s beatable Poker games like Flush Attack or The Max, and then we got the IGT Vision Series games, etc. I didn’t have the bankroll for a Joker Wild VP progressive with a 2% meter movement where 5 of a Kind wins the progressive (roughly 11K hand cycle), could not afford to play $5 single line VP chasing a 101% or 102% play. But I tipped off my buddies and traded them for info or intel. What I didn’t realize I was good at finding plays rather than grinding them.

    I had my up’s and down’s, droughts like losing over $64K over 2 months and that scared the sh*t out of me, and I remembered when I started getting swings of +/- $20K a week, that was a bit too much for me so I took some time off and had to rethink my game plan. This guy Mathboy from bj21 and TomSki’s TSI software gave me the insights to get my next level. I knew my comfort level and knew what games fit my strength. I wasn’t going to have a goal of Max EV or $EV per hour, I didn’t want to grind, and I hell wasn’t going to sit at a machines banging the buttons as fast as a damn monkey chasing the Must Hits.

    I found my niche. I played games and opportunities that I was better than most APs. I found out the first month of a new bonus machine was huge ... say $10K a week or $10K a month. That’s where I made my money ... low risk, lots of plays and max information asymmetry. The second month was okay but by the third month, the play was over as the dregs of bonus hustlers started camping by the machines.

    I still play a lot of promo’s because the casinos are too damn lazy to change their promo’s. They basically run the same promo’s for so many of my casinos so it’s very easy and steady money. When I got be 55, I got to hustle the 50+ & 55+ promo’s so that adds a thousand a month that I didn’t have before. Cha Ching!!! I was double & triple dipping in some casinos ... these casinos were practically giving money away.

    I am not saying no to grinding, but no grinding for me. Like I said, I got really lucky meeting the right people and figuring out what works for me.

  7. #7
    I still play a lot of promoís because the casinos are too damn lazy to change their promoís. They basically run the same promoís for so many of my casinos so itís very easy and steady money. When I got be 55, I got to hustle the 50+ & 55+ promoís so that adds a thousand a month that I didnít have before. Cha Ching!!! I was double & triple dipping in some casinos ... these casinos were practically giving money away.

    I am not saying no to grinding, but no grinding for me. Like I said, I got really lucky meeting the right people and figuring out what works for me.[/QUOTE]

    I love double dipping! I have started doing it on the regular with some regular promos. Im not 50 (or 55) yet, so I dont have that extra yet. without details, i have turned a 15$ an hour play into 35$ an hour with double dipping with minimal effort. (not counting mailers cos the play is mixed with other play so very hard to isolate).

  8. #8
    There is no "positive ev" method to tipping casino handpays or cashiers. You tip, you lose. Simple as pie. Anyone who believes tipping will get your hand pays quicker so you can supposedly hammer away at some theoretically positive play faster is delusional.

    The bottom line is, anyone stupid enough to leave a tip to employees who bring your cash and tax forms because they're simply doing the job they're being paid to do, is far too weak a person to be playing for a profit in the first place. Too many players piss away their edge by tipping, and the ONLY reason they tip is because of intimidation. Poor babies are sooo worried about what the floor people might be thinking about them....Better they worry about the IRS coming after them for claiming falsely that they have lost as much as they have won in their tax filings. Then again, the AMT might get them, or their AGI could bite them in the ass. Internet gambling bravados never mention this stuff.

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