I prefer posts / tweets / articles where people lost money rather than screenshots or photos of big wins. I learn more from these posts than some random person getting lucky and won big.

Here is the tweet: https://mobile.twitter.com/davecinc/...63257819443201

There are two photos: (before) $200 MH at $197.05 and (what appears to be the after) $200 MH gets taken down, drops, cracks, etc at $199.49 meaning the meter moved $2.44.

Person writes (paraphrasing here) lost a couple hundred due to crappy bonus rounds.

When you approach these MH’s (also called MHB’s), you need to know at least two things: RTP & meter movement. Generally, the larger of the two MH is harder to solve due to the Minor jackpot, the meter movement for the Minor Jackpot, etc.

However, we can simplify the analysis by assuming the Minor won’t get hit so we now have one equation with two unknowns: meter movement for Major jackpot & RTP (or 1 less house edge).

When I get a chance, I’ll show the the three main math approaches to these MH’s: (a) WoO’s simple formula, (b) the B/E method that uses the most likely jackpot, and (c) the village idiot approach of using mid-point.

You know (c) is a stupid approach because this specific MH is decidedly NON-RANDOM, and we know this due to survivorship bias.

So we will make the following assumptions:
(a) RTP is 90% (this means house edge is 10%)
(b) meter movement for Major jackpot is 10 basis points
(c) a method to discern most likely jackpot amount when it breaks

... math analysis to follow.