WoO formula can be found here:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/slots...pot-ainsworth/
“Math formula is
The general formula for the Target Point can be given as:
t = m × (h + r) / (h + 2r), where:
t = Target Point
m = Max jackpot
r = Rise of meter rate
h = House edge of game (taking into consideration the average value of the progressive)”
So based on my limited understanding of WoO formula (which btw ignores the Minor jackpot), we get the following:
$200 * (0.101 / 0.102) = roughly $198.04 so the person played TOO EARLY based on this formula.
Had the RTP being 88% (which is more likely based on my sources for this type of game), then house edge is 12% such that the Target would be 200 * (.121 / .122) or roughly $198.36 (which makes sense since the house edge is higher so you need a higher target).
There are huge methodological problems with WoO’s approach that is not the case with option math. But these formulae are fast and easy to use.
The village idiot approach is using a mid-point of $197.04 & $200 or assuming a target of a $198.52 or ($197.04 + $200) * 0.5. You can read more about this approach here:
https://www.advantageslots.com/must-...u-should-play/
You might as well read animal entrails or tea leaves if you are thinking of this stupid, moronic mid-point method.
Folks, we have survivorship bias at work here. The Major jackpot is at $197 for a reason: it didn’t drop at $196, $195, $194, $193, etc. SURVIVORSHIP BIAS ... this is a non-random data point.
Next post is the B/E method.
In summary: all these methods uses assumptions but the key assumption is the jackpot amount that is most likely to break. WoO & mid-point are two simplistic but fast methods.