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Thread: Mickey Crimm believes in the mid point math for MHs

  1. #1
    Here is a tweet: https://mobile.twitter.com/ssbledsoe...87814426951680

    Guy quotes Mickey Crimm math. A Minor jackpot at $482 will hit (on average) at $491 per Mickey (which is the essence of MCs tweet).

    Why $491? Because $482 + 500 is $982. The mid-point of these two numbers is $491.

    Suppose a hustler saw a Minor at $480, does that mean on average it hits at $490 (regardless of RTP, meter movement, etc)? Now suppose that hustler quit at $482 and Mickey Crimm showed; that original $490 mid-point must now be $491 per Mickey Crimm. But suppose the original hustler didnt quit but took a bathroom break at $482 and came back ... so does the hustler use the original $490 mid-point number or does he now have to use $491? Hmmm.

    And no, I am not surprised Mickey Crimm believes in the midpoint approach.

    Btw, for the Ainsworth $10K, the meter movement was 15 basis point in Northern California but 10 basis points in Reno, just next door. 50% faster meter movement in N. Cali than Reno.

    The tweet that started the conversation where Mickey Crimm math was being quoted was here:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/kybourbon...54101311729664

    And kybourbon claims the meter movement for the $10K Major was 1 penny per $5 in coin in (based on my limited understanding of his tweet). 0.01 / 5.00 is 20 basis points.

    Somehow Mickey Crimm math of the mid-point approach works identically for 10 bp, 15 bp, or 20 bp meter movement for the $10K majors.

    Ive been saying, I wasnt there. I didnt see Mickey Crimm take down 9x$500 Minors so I dont know anything about Mickey Crimms ACTUAL RESULTS. I will tell you that Ive been paid thousands in finder fees on the $10Ks using the B/E approach but Mickey Crimm will tell you I dont know turkey shit about these MHs.

    By the way, one guy regularly drops $10K majors (for RTPs at 93%) while DELIBERATELY chasing the $500 Minors using option math but per Mickey Crimm I still I dont know turkey shit about MHs.

    Silly little old me.

  2. #2
    Originally Posted by Ex-AP View Post
    Suppose a hustler saw a Minor at $480, does that mean on average it hits at $490 (regardless of RTP, meter movement, etc)? Now suppose that hustler quit at $482 and Mickey Crimm showed; that original $490 mid-point must now be $491 per Mickey Crimm. But suppose the original hustler didn’t quit but took a bathroom break at $482 and came back ... so does the hustler use the original $490 mid-point number or does he now have to use $491? Hmmm.
    Turdlicker, regardless of what method is used, you would still have to revise the old most likely hit point to the new most likely hit point since the initial conditions have changed (from $480 to $482), including revising the most likely hit point calculated from your bullshit Option method to use $482 as the initial condition instead of $480. Go fuck yourself windbag.

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by Ex-AP View Post
    Here is a tweet: https://mobile.twitter.com/ssbledsoe...87814426951680

    Guy quotes Mickey Crimm math. A “Minor” jackpot at $482 will hit (on average) at $491 per Mickey (which is the essence of MC’s tweet).

    Why $491? Because $482 + 500 is $982. The mid-point of these two numbers is $491.

    Suppose a hustler saw a Minor at $480, does that mean on average it hits at $490 (regardless of RTP, meter movement, etc)? Now suppose that hustler quit at $482 and Mickey Crimm showed; that original $490 mid-point must now be $491 per Mickey Crimm. But suppose the original hustler didn’t quit but took a bathroom break at $482 and came back ... so does the hustler use the original $490 mid-point number or does he now have to use $491? Hmmm.

    And no, I am not surprised Mickey Crimm believes in the midpoint approach.

    Btw, for the Ainsworth $10K, the meter movement was 15 basis point in Northern California but 10 basis points in Reno, just next door. 50% faster meter movement in N. Cali than Reno.

    The tweet that started the conversation where Mickey Crimm math was being quoted was here:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/kybourbon...54101311729664

    And “kybourbon” claims the meter movement for the $10K Major was 1 penny per $5 in coin in (based on my limited understanding of his tweet). 0.01 / 5.00 is 20 basis points.

    Somehow Mickey Crimm math of the mid-point approach works identically for 10 bp, 15 bp, or 20 bp meter movement for the $10K major’s.

    I’ve been saying, I wasn’t there. I didn’t see Mickey Crimm take down 9x$500 Minors so I don’t know anything about Mickey Crimm’s ACTUAL RESULTS. I will tell you that I’ve been paid thousands in finder fees on the $10K’s using the B/E approach but Mickey Crimm will tell you I don’t know turkey shit about these MH’s.

    By the way, one guy regularly drops $10K majors (for RTP’s at 93%) while DELIBERATELY chasing the $500 Minors using option math but per Mickey Crimm I still I don’t know turkey shit about MH’s.

    Silly little old me.
    Your very first sentence is a lie. I didn’t say it would hit at 491. I said average hit is 491.

    Many years ago I was first in the forums to write about the halfway point being in the equation. I still stand by it and you’re an assclown.

    Finder’s fee’s, eh? That’s what dudes that don’t have the bankroll to spin it off get.
    "There is no difference between communism and socialism, except in the means of achieving the same ultimate end: communism proposes to enslave men by force, socialism--by vote. It is merely the difference between murder and suicide." Ayn Rand

  4. #4
    The midpoint is what I usually use for calculations. If it's a go at $480, then it's a go at $481 $482 $483 etc. The ev won't go down while the average hit point will rise. I wouldn't need to recalculate at all, just spin til it hits. You gain a tiny bit of information about the hit point after every .01 of movement, but that information doesn't change any decisions.

  5. #5
    This thread should be in the Las Vegas section.
    "There is no difference between communism and socialism, except in the means of achieving the same ultimate end: communism proposes to enslave men by force, socialism--by vote. It is merely the difference between murder and suicide." Ayn Rand

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by Ex-AP View Post
    Here is a tweet: https://mobile.twitter.com/ssbledsoe...87814426951680

    Guy quotes Mickey Crimm math. A “Minor” jackpot at $482 will hit (on average) at $491 per Mickey (which is the essence of MC’s tweet).

    Why $491? Because $482 + 500 is $982. The mid-point of these two numbers is $491.

    Suppose a hustler saw a Minor at $480, does that mean on average it hits at $490 (regardless of RTP, meter movement, etc)? Now suppose that hustler quit at $482 and Mickey Crimm showed; that original $490 mid-point must now be $491 per Mickey Crimm. But suppose the original hustler didn’t quit but took a bathroom break at $482 and came back ... so does the hustler use the original $490 mid-point number or does he now have to use $491? Hmmm.

    And no, I am not surprised Mickey Crimm believes in the midpoint approach.

    Btw, for the Ainsworth $10K, the meter movement was 15 basis point in Northern California but 10 basis points in Reno, just next door. 50% faster meter movement in N. Cali than Reno.

    The tweet that started the conversation where Mickey Crimm math was being quoted was here:
    https://mobile.twitter.com/kybourbon...54101311729664

    And “kybourbon” claims the meter movement for the $10K Major was 1 penny per $5 in coin in (based on my limited understanding of his tweet). 0.01 / 5.00 is 20 basis points.

    Somehow Mickey Crimm math of the mid-point approach works identically for 10 bp, 15 bp, or 20 bp meter movement for the $10K major’s.

    I’ve been saying, I wasn’t there. I didn’t see Mickey Crimm take down 9x$500 Minors so I don’t know anything about Mickey Crimm’s ACTUAL RESULTS. I will tell you that I’ve been paid thousands in finder fees on the $10K’s using the B/E approach but Mickey Crimm will tell you I don’t know turkey shit about these MH’s.

    By the way, one guy regularly drops $10K majors (for RTP’s at 93%) while DELIBERATELY chasing the $500 Minors using option math but per Mickey Crimm I still I don’t know turkey shit about MH’s.

    Silly little old me.
    ex-Ap, thank you so much for pointing out to everyone that I am an advocate of using the mid-point for analyzing MHB plays. I wrote about it years ago and it's the industry standard today. But it's not our fault you don't have the capacity to understand it. Good luck and say hi to your fellow third graders for me.
    "There is no difference between communism and socialism, except in the means of achieving the same ultimate end: communism proposes to enslave men by force, socialism--by vote. It is merely the difference between murder and suicide." Ayn Rand

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