Originally Posted by
mickeycrimm
Video poker AP's wait until a progressive is in positive territory before playing. So according to your logic there are no video poker AP's either.
As a matter of fact, according to your logic, you can only be a video poker AP if you play both positive AND negative situations. And sports bettors? They only want to bet positive situations. So much for being an AP there. According to your logic there just ain't any AP's around.
1. I will summarize my key points. A homeless person digging through trash for deposits is a scavenger and those deposits are “equity”, e.g. some form of value. (Some of the stuff picked up may not have a CRV in the case of California meaning not everything a homeless person pick up has value). The key point is scavenging for value. I scavenge bonus slots for value myself. I am bonus slot scavenger in a casino, which is no different than a homeless person scavenging for deposits in trash. That act alone does not make the homeless person or myself an AP.
2. On an apple to apples comparison, e.g. ceteris paribus (something the resident village idiot doesn’t get), we can compare a card counter at a traditional BJ vs a progressive VP player. No comps, no free play, no mailers, no promotions, etc. All the value is derived from the game.
The BJ player who is a card counter is an AP for facing a game that is negative off the top. (We will exclude BJ players who are scavengers, e.g. wonging positive counts via table hopping, etc). I am talking about the “play-all” card counter. This card counter makes money based on math by betting more in positive counts.
Other BJ players use hole carding or shuffle tracking during a play-all situation to make money. Basically, due to a skill, these BJ players make consistent money while play-all in a game that is negative off the top. Again, these people are AP’s for making money playing a game that is negative off the top.
In the case of progressive video poker, the Ploppies or others have to build the progressive jackpot(s) high enough to turn a negative VP game off the top INTO A PLUS EV situation. These VP players are scavengers meaning they have to wait for the opportunity to manifest itself. My point is you don’t see progressive VP players playing a decidedly negative VP game off the top to move it INTO PLUS EV territory and then try to increase their bets (can’t be done due to fixed bet amounts).
2. Once you release the apples to apples comparisons, like cash back, mailers, etc the definition of an AP gets more expansive. But if you are making all of your money from scavenging equity in bonus slots because you require others to leave equity for you (like a homeless person looking through trash) then you are an scavenger, not an AP.
I know lots of known video poker players who play negative EV games but make it up somewhere else. “A” is a perfect example of playing 99%+ VP games and making over 6 figures a year due to the value somewhere else. “A” is NOT scavenging equity left by others; “A” is creating equity due to skill, e.g. playing a negative game off the top (like a BJ card counter) but gets something outside of the game (e.g. releasing the apples to apples comparison).
3. Sports betting. Let’s ignore arbitraging multiple lines. Let’s talk about the “line”; IMO the sport maker wants to balance action on both sides of the line so if too much action is coming on one side, the sports maker will “move” the line. Take the McGregor vs Mayweather match. Dumb money was betting for McGregor so the “line” moved.
https://www.oddsshark.com/boxing/flo...g-odds-tracker
This is a scavenging opportunity where smart money had to waited until the day of the fight to bet on Mayweather.
People mistakenly believe the “line” reflects the true odds of the game, match, etc. The truth is the line is to balance the action. I am not a sports bettor, but it’s very hard to make money betting $110 to win $100. If dumb money moves the line, people can scavenge off this opportunity. Something had to happen.
And Mickey, this is your problem (the village idiot has the same problem): you don’t explain how the situation BECAME POSITIVE. Sometimes it’s a mistake, e.g. someone screwed up the math. For all the other times, SOMETHING HAD TO HAPPEN for that play to turn to PLUS EV.
In summary, if a VP player makes all his money from progressive VP, then he is a scavenger not an AP. I have call my buddies who scavenge $100K must hit scavengers and they had no problem with that description.