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Thread: Another dumb tweet by Scavenger who is an AP wannabe

  1. #1
    https://mobile.twitter.com/CBray75/s...42619645710339

    Person puts up a post of a W2G jackpot. He posts (here I will paraphrase): I was a moron, losing my butt trying a new game while sucking my mamaís teat until I got saved.

    A couple of other people in the conversation spotted the same time: person was betting $8.80 a spin testing a new game.

    I will file him/her in my village idiot folder (that already includes tableplay). I was reading this personís tweets because s/he stated Zodiac Lion plays like Scarab, which it does not. ZL & Scarab both are accumulator slot machines where the equity is wild symbols but Scarab uses a wild turns on game 10 mechanics so the (average) payback of the game is based on (the average of) a 10-game cycle, e.g. it isnít hard to figure out that if you could get the return of a 10-game cycle by wagering less than the full 10 spins ... hmmm.

    However, Scarab had a walk away feature which is why the second way to make money from Scarab was to throw money for a few spins and compare the number of known wilds to a benchmark of wilds needed to continue playing. This is why option math and using a Markov chain was a good way to explain the ďoptimal departure point.Ē (Btw, I make a lot of money on Scarab on spins 4, 5, 6, etc because I knew the existing wilds was a +EV play that most hustlers wonít take a chance on). You cannot do that at ZL.

    In summary, we werenít there. We donít know how much was lost before the W2G event. We donít even know if the photo truly represents this personís win.

    If you play play live blackjack and back count (one or two tables same the same time), there is an optimal departure point to walk away and start counting new tables. Kim Lee using option math did the work for Don Schlessinger. You see option math used a lot in advantage play.

  2. #2
    Here is a source if people want to read about optimal departure point in live blackjack.
    https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/...59790701870142

    The point is once you learn something valuable in one game such as Blackjack, you get to recycle that knowledge in other areas of AP world (but I am not an AP). You see option math used a lot by very smart people and Scarab was such a good opportunity for option math.

    Here’s the abstract (if anyone is curious and math-oriented):
    The casino blackjack technique usually called back-counting, or ‘wonging’, consists of beginning play (‘entry’) at a table only after an indicator of favourability exceeds a certain threshold. The back-counter is also advised to leave the table at a threshold of unfavourability, most usually after entry (here termed ‘exit’) but sometimes also before entry (here termed ‘departure’). I have analysed these thresholds previously and obtained optimal entry and exit criteria based on maximizing the total cash value of the table between successive shuffles, recognizing that only some of its rounds are actually played. Here I extend and complete that investigation to include the value from a second, freshly-shuffled table, played after either departure or exit, until the first table is reshuffled; this extension is here termed ‘table-hopping’. An optimal departure point arises in table-hopping that does not appear when considering only a single table. Optimal table-hopping offers an important incremental advantage to its practitioner, here quantified for several representative game conditions, sufficient to make attractive several well-camouflaged betting methods.

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by Ex-AP View Post

    I will file him/her in my village idiot folder (that already includes tableplay).
    Says the sack of shit that doesn't even know that multi-hand video poker has a lower risk of ruin than single hand video poker for the same pay table, theme and total bet size.

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