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Thread: If You Bet Sports, Heed The Word.

  1. #1
    Let's face it--if you're a sportsbettor, are you gonna place your fate and earnings in the hands of someone like LVA's Fezzik that touts mathematical formulas as a way of going broke, or have you not yet learned to listen to the simple method of true ingenuity that I possess, sometimes utilize in the form of bets, and have more than prospered on when I do use it?

    Today was the final day in the regular season of the NFL, and what a day it was. I didn't make any bets after my amazing parlay scored BIG TIME recently, and I am not a regular sportsbettor by any stretch. In fact, the parlay was my only sports bet of the year!

    However, I spent around 4 hours analyzing every team that's in the playoffs, and I am going to make a few bets when I get back down to Pahrump. I'll be going into LV to make them of course. So I thought I'd share a few of my picks--and why--with anyone smart enough to be reading this forum, and I'll also indicate how much I put on the games I'm betting. I may or may not bet every pick I make, but just as I did on the parlay bet, I'll clearly identify exactly what I do before the games are played. Check back often if you're at all interested.

    Here are my pre-bet/pre-game comments:

    1. Cincinnati @ Houston: Houston is tough at home but they have QB issues. The Bengals don't, and this season has been the year of the QB. I'm strongly leaning towards Cincy in this game.

    2. Pittsburgh @ Denver: The Broncos have been confusing this year. All the Tebow stuff aside, they have a very good defense against a fair offensive team like the Steelers can muster, and Big Ben has had about as much good fortune as anyone alive by winning two Super Bowls he shouldn't have--one vs. Seattle in which he scored the worst SB QB rating of all-time, and the other against a clearly better Cardinals team that got bad break after bad break in that game while Pitts got just the opposite. A safe bet on this game will be to go with Denver.

    3. Detroit @ New Orleans: The Lions are even better than their 10-6 record indicates, but they're running into a team that's undefeated at home as well as VERY hot on offense. Most people expect a high scoring affair with NO winning. I don't. I expect the Saints to win something like 31-21.

    4. Atlanta @ New York Giants: I had to wait to see what happened in the Dallas game tonight, and what I saw only confirmed how bad Dallas was and how middle-of-the-road the Giants really are. OTOH, I like the Falcons, and I do not expect the Giants can either stop them or score much. Many people won't agree, but to me this is a no-brainer: bet on Atlanta.

    Remaining teams: If you're on the Baltimore Raven bandwagon, get off now. No way a stiff like Joe Flacco belongs in a Super Bowl game. In addition to a 2nd class offense, their highly rated defense doesn't really impress me that much--especially if and when he has to face the likes of Rodgers, Brady, or Brees.

    What about the Green Bay Packers? Truthfully, I can't see them getting by either the Saints or the 49ers. Why? Because THEY HAVE THE WORST DEFENSE IN THE LEAGUE, and that defense has given up MORE YARDS than their unstoppable offense has gained! Look at the Detroit game today--a 45-41 win at home? 520 yards passing given up with 5 TD's in the air? And what's even more telling, this isn't a lot different than they've shown all year.

    What about my team--the Patriots? Don't bet against them, even with their shabby defense. Lots of analogies with the Packers and they are a better road team than the Saints. The difference maker is their coach....and Tom Brady. Too much experience and too many big games.

    San Francisco is a puzzle for me right now. They have the ability to go into Green Bay and spoil things for the Packers, but I don't think they can beat the Saints....right now anyway. Let's see how things shape up after next weekends games.

  2. #2
    I'm back before the games start Sat. as promised.

    I wasn't able and won't be able to get into LV before Saturday, so I only made some $100 bets @ the small local casino here for this week's games.

    Here's what I got:

    1. Cinn +3 over Hou
    2. Cinn/Hou: OVER 38 points
    3. Det +10.5 over NO
    4. Atl +3 over NYG
    5. Den +8 over Pitt
    6. Den/Pitt OVER 34.5 points

    I have $100 @ -110 on each of these because I didn't want to push it or look big time at the little book here. Don't be afraid to bet the house however. Remember, I AM NOT A LOSER LIKE THE FABULOUS FEZZIK!

  3. #3
    After one game, you're off to a flying stop with the Cincy +3.

    It's likely you won't do better than 3-3 with these picks.
    Last edited by Vegas Vic; 01-07-2012 at 08:24 PM.

  4. #4
    Nothing wrong with 3-3 on a tough card, if that's how things turn out. I did nothing. Tried to talk myself into a Saints Under, but the conversation ended before it began.

    Will do something tomorrow, in all likelihood, in the Pitt/Denver game.

    Intense games, but Bengals looked like a team with a flu-ridden QB. And Detroit's secondary was a mess, which they've been for awhile.

    For fantasy enthusiasts, taking the obvious players was the way to go today. No sleepers did anything. You had to have Brees, Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Arian Foster, Sproles, and either Andre Johnson or Colston (preferably both) to do any damage.

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Nothing wrong with 3-3 on a tough card, if that's how things turn out. I did nothing. Tried to talk myself into a Saints Under, but the conversation ended before it began.

    Will do something tomorrow, in all likelihood, in the Pitt/Denver game.

    Intense games, but Bengals looked like a team with a flu-ridden QB. And Detroit's secondary was a mess, which they've been for awhile.

    For fantasy enthusiasts, taking the obvious players was the way to go today. No sleepers did anything. You had to have Brees, Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Arian Foster, Sproles, and either Andre Johnson or Colston (preferably both) to do any damage.
    I don't believe it's one parlay card. Looks like all individual bets, so going .500 (at best) is nothing but more braggadocio.

    (Nice call on the Giants game, too, Rob.)

  6. #6
    I wound up taking the Pitt/Denver Over. So far, so good.

    In Jimmy Vaccaro's Gaming Today column last week, he said Lucky's sports book might need a separate window for all the Steeler teaser money. If so, those bettors are mighty nervous right about now. It's been an interesting weekend, as the books took a hit with all the chalk, and assuredly a ton is tied to the Steelers.

    Who woulda thunk I'd need Tebow for my fantasy team?

  7. #7
    Looks like I'll go 3-3. Pretty embarrassing for me, but I'll probably lose around $30. Hmmm Vic--if I subtract that from $49,804, am I still in "positive territory"?

  8. #8
    I apologize: 3-3 is true ingenuity and the 4 hrs spent for each team (48 hours of studying in total) sure was worth it. Rob took "the little book" for -$30. He's a man among men.

    Rob, you're a hypocrite and full of crap. "I have $100 @ -110 on each of these because I didn't want to push it or look big time at the little book here." ...and then you tell everyone else to "bet the house" and, not only that, you go on to say " I AM NOT A LOSER LIKE THE FABULOUS FEZZIK! "

    It's too bad that Alan doesn't have the guts to kick your sorry posterior out of this forum. You add absolutely nothing to it with your self-aggrandizing blather.

  9. #9
    It was 4 hours in total. But where were you and your undeniable envy as I was crushing egos a few weeks ago?

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by Vegas Vic View Post
    It's too bad that Alan doesn't have the guts to kick your sorry posterior out of this forum. You add absolutely nothing to it with your self-aggrandizing blather.
    I've said it many times that I want this to be a true open forum without censorship, for ideas that include those that are not popular.

    I don't know anything about sports betting but over the last 40 years or so I've followed a lot of stock market analysts and forecasters and I never found one who had a perfect record or anything close to a perfect record. I wouldn't expect sports bet pickers to be perfect either.

  11. #11
    For those who do not know -- this has been a fascinating year in sports handicapping. Some big names got killed, such as Fezzik. Some names got off to horrible starts, then rallied with absolutely terrific second-half-of-season records, such as Marc Lawrence. Some lesser-name-but-brighter-light handicappers, such as Stormin' Norman from Philadelphia, were juggernauts -- Norman had a superb and unrelenting high-volume season.

    As for myself, I won 17 in a row in the freesportsinfo.com contest, and had my fourth best season in 35 years of doing this. But because some other handicappers bludgeoned the books, my record doesn't really stand out from the upper end crowd. Now I have never heard of any handicapper winning 17 in a row -- ever -- but people had such strong seasons that it kind of got lost in the book-busting mayhem.

    The books had a bad year.

  12. #12
    I know how tough it is to hit 17 in a row. Even smartmonies couldn't do that!

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