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Thread: My Great Uncles Owner Dairy Farms

  1. #1
    The cow tried to jump over the moon. It went up, up, up, and finally at its peak started to come down. Then it landed hard on at least its first three legs.

  2. #2
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    The cow tried to jump over the moon. It went up, up, up, and finally at its peak started to come down. Then it landed hard on at least its first three legs.
    The first two legs of the cow made it over the moon. We're counting on the third leg also going over the moon. Check back here for updates on the fourth leg. Congrats to the cow!!

  3. #3
    With his third leg, the cow cleared it, but the moon went higher still. With the Korean War starting one year later and ending one year later, the cow decided that clipping hedges for 20% might be a good idea with his third leg. And on he went.

  4. #4
    Regarding the cow's fourth leg, same Korean War scenario, except clipping hedges for 80%.

    That's all for Week One.

  5. #5
    I never particularly like hedging the last leg unless it also is a positive bet on its own. But in the XFL, who knows what is positive to begin with?

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by kuma View Post
    I never particularly like hedging the last leg unless it also is a positive bet on its own. But in the XFL, who knows what is positive to begin with?

    Congrats on IDing these.

    It wasn't a parlay. I never bet parlays, unless certain very, very rare situations pop. I took all of the Overs as soon as the numbers were available, since I thought it was virtually a guarantee those numbers would go up. Middled the first game, winning with a 33% hedge on Under 51 plus the bet. Won the second game. Lost the third game, but picked up roughly 25% on a hedge since the total went up three points. Looked at the fourth game, which I always thought would be possibly the lowest scoring game, both because the QB is hurt and the teams have a nice collection of backs. Decided to hedge 80%. Not a great scenario -- Over 51 1/2; Under 53. Probable small loss on this game. Won roughly 1 1/3 bets on all four games combined.

    I'll take it. I thought when the initial totals came out, they might actually move more than they did. They moved plenty, but I thought they might move more.

    It's going to be interesting moving forward, as three potential starting QBs did not play this week. So next week's games could look very, very different.

    Fanduel offered a 300K and 200K contest this week. They'll probably do something similar next week. If you can figure things out, there are possibilities.

    As to why the cow reported the plays, it was a sarcastic dig at a certain poster who thinks professionals should post their plays publicly. I sincerely doubt that he figured it out. And yes, my great uncles did indeed own dairy farms.
    Last edited by redietz; 02-09-2020 at 03:13 PM.

  7. #7
    Congrats. I liked the unders, thinking the games would be like NFL preseason games are. Really good movement for you. Good strategy on your part.

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by kuma View Post
    Congrats. I liked the unders, thinking the games would be like NFL preseason games are. Really good movement for you. Good strategy on your part.
    When the previous league, the AAF, posted their first week lines, they were too high. And the AAF opening games did, as you said, resemble pre-season games. All of the games were Unders. I think the XFL chose to avoid scoring less than expectation, so their opening lines were going to be a tad low.

    I'm sure the league ran tons of simulations with the new rules to get ballpark totals. I'm sure bookmakers had access to those sim results. I assume other people running simulations also arrived at the conclusion that the lines should be mid-50's.

    Nobody running sims really accounted for backup QBs in three of four games, however.

    What was interesting was that the announcers kept mentioning that the teams had only 40 practices to prepare. Well, given that their rosters were pretty much set, that actually is quite a few practices. It's not if you have massive cuts and roster reductions to make. If your rosters are somewhat crystalline, it's actually similar to college teams. Plus I'm sure it's not counting "captains' practices" film study and weight lifting and cardio. These guys are not going to underprepare for these jobs. The player conditioning looked really solid to me.

    If anything, I think some of the coaches (and league timekeepers) were underprepared.
    Last edited by redietz; 02-10-2020 at 08:34 AM.

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