Dangers of using Average(s)

[Ex-AP]

My favorite quote about dangers of using averages comes from Nassim Taleb who wrote: Don’t cross a river that is on average four feet deep. I first came across his wise words from his book “Fooled by Randomness”.

There are limitations with using the “average”.

https://mobile.twitter.com/nntaleb/s...28128653905920

[mickeycrimm]

Why do you have to start new fucking threads everyday when the threads already there will suffice.

It looks like "Fooled by Randomness" has made a fool out of you. This is Michael Shackleford's opinion on how the Ainsworth Mystery Progressives work:

"A point at which a jackpot will hit is randomly chosen on a uniform distribution between the starting point and maximum jackpot."

I was the very first AP in the gambling forums to write about the Mystery Progressives and how they worked. I came to the same above conclusion as Shack but made it known in the gambling forums years before Shack wrote about it. It's a virtual consensus in the AP world that they work that way. That is, everyone but YOU.


Dan, you need to squash this kid from flooding the forum with so many unnecessary threads. He created this thread because of something I wrote about averages in another thread. His response here should have been placed over there.

[13BucksanHourAP]

Here's a 2010 comment on Reddit from an apparent slot programmer. He's more describing a multi-bank, max bet req'd to be eligible, MHB $10K - not today's stand alone $10K's but he says there's a check each spin rather than a pre-determined set point.

Moving on to progressives. Let's say a progressive must hit by $10k. Every time a player places a max bet, the progressive asks the RNG if 1/10000000 is true. No? Then no hit.

As the Must Hit goal gets closer, the question becomes "1/1000000". And then "1/100000". Etc. So each player has an equal chance to hit the jackpot. Eventually the odds narrow enough that the jackpot will be hit, but there is no way of knowing which player hit until it happens.

https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/commen..._machines_and/

[mickeycrimm]

Here's a 2010 comment on Reddit from an apparent slot programmer. He's more describing a multi-bank, max bet req'd to be eligible, MHB $10K - not today's stand alone $10K's but he says there's a check each spin rather than a pre-determined set point.

Moving on to progressives. Let's say a progressive must hit by $10k. Every time a player places a max bet, the progressive asks the RNG if 1/10000000 is true. No? Then no hit.

As the Must Hit goal gets closer, the question becomes "1/1000000". And then "1/100000". Etc. So each player has an equal chance to hit the jackpot. Eventually the odds narrow enough that the jackpot will be hit, but there is no way of knowing which player hit until it happens.

https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/commen..._machines_and/

I agree with the programmer that this is the way they work. And if we take his words as true it does not change the math that AP's use on the game.