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Thread: The Adventures of MDawg (in progress)

  1. #101
    I noticed Half Smoke made his above post right after I did. He did have in his initial post his clever AP mathematical statistic of MDawgs odds at 20 million to 1 or something.

    My guess is after he posted it he didn't see my post above it then read it. He then removed his clever efforts invested odds.

    Maybe after reading my post and realizing how fucking stupid his efforts were and how stupid he looks, he edited his post.

    Just another envious, jealous, alleged AP WOV fraud.

    Fuck-You too.

  2. #102
    Originally Posted by blackhole View Post
    I noticed Half Smoke made his above post right after I did. He did have in his initial post his clever AP mathematical statistic of MDawgs odds at 20 million to 1 or something.

    My guess is after he posted it he didn't see my post above it then read it. He then removed his clever efforts invested odds.

    Maybe after reading my post and realizing how fucking stupid his efforts were and how stupid he looks, he edited his post.

    Just another envious, jealous, alleged AP WOV fraud.

    Fuck-You too.



    I don't really care if you publicly proclaim that I'm a dirtbag. It doesn't bother me in the least. Go ahead and enjoy. This is the internet. We're in who gives a fuck territory.
    But just for the record I didn't remove anything.
    What I calculated is right there in this thread at post #90.
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 02-28-2020 at 05:21 AM.
    please don't feed the trolls

  3. #103
    Originally Posted by MDawg View Post
    and then of course...the view. The wrap around terrace view:



    all surrounding 1200 square feet of living space.

    Over all, very nice.

    To me, this looks to be the nicest of the suites you've shown in the pics that I've seen. It's not just the terrace view; it's the overall style. It's modern without hitting you completely over the head with it being "Moderne," if you know what I mean.

    I like old wood and brass, but if you're going modern, this looks like the place.

  4. #104
    Originally Posted by MDawg View Post
    As planned, no play today. Staying in.

    For dinner we had

    that I brought up from the second floor.

    My compadres and I ate there last time we were in Cosmo. It's one of our staples. We saw Opium, which you really should check out. One of our guys knows a bit about show design (he is friends with a world class illusionist). He said Opium (by the same group that does Absinthe) is oodles better than Absinthe. It is a wild show.

    If you ever get to Nashville, they have Hattie B's, of course, but there is also a place called Prince's Hot Chicken that is other-worldly. I had the medium and it almost killed me.

  5. #105
    It's obvious how jealous brokeassblackhole is of MDawg. He has to whine, bitch, moan and snivel to everyone else. Sniveling blackhole. Snivel some more, BH. It's funny watching you cry like a bitch.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  6. #106
    Originally Posted by blackhole View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by MDawg View Post
    Those calculations are inaccurate but in any case, as House of Orange points out, not relevant unless flat betting.
    MDawg, thanks for posting the terrific pictures of your trips I enjoy viewing them. If you don't mind, please let me know where I made a mistake in my calculations as I am always looking to improve my statistical and mathematical skills. I haven't read anywhere about counting systems for Baccarat, so if you know of any good books or links to Baccarat indexing systems please feel free to post them as I would love to add to my portfolio of player edge casino games .

    Best, TP.
    Who gives a fuck about your calculations, statistics, mathematical skills, or your losing portfolio?

    It’s so obvious you’re just another envious alleged AP. Do you really think anyone reading this thread really care what you’re trying to figure out? All you’re trying to do is come up with some wrong idea of what MDawgs odds are of actually winning. (according to your gifted math abilities) Regardless of you not knowing the facts of every different bet size, which you keep denying and pushing to the side to help achieve your phony goal of just being able to say something like he has a better chance of getting struck by lightning a thousand times in one week then what he’s posting. It's like reading an Op-Ed written by Pelosi, edited by A. Shit.

    Fuck you, your math, phony interest in books that could spell out his lucky strategy, etc. etc. etc. You’re a complete fucking envious fool, that no doubt could never afford the luxury’s MDawg enjoys. Maybe if you spent more of your time on a real career you might be able to improve your sad fucking life.

    Shouldn’t you be spending more of your time with Shank and the rest of the phony alleged frauds.

    For me, it’s guys like you that are so envious and jealous of others who are successful and enjoying life; and if you had the chance would knock out guys like MDawg in a dark alley and rob everything he had on him. Including his watches.

    You’re a fucking WOV loser, and it reeks of shit when you post.

    Take a fucking walk and stay in your lane. You know, more like waiting for the opportunity to pound some progressive slot at the right time your math tells you to do, hoping it’s you that gets it, then waiting for mailers a month later so you could eat and maybe get a discount on a room.

    Fuck you asshole, and stop ruining the thread others finally enjoy reading on these stupid fucking forums which are endlessly loaded with such gifted smart assholes like you.

    MDawg could buy and sell your sad pathetic ass. Take it like a man and take a fucking walk.
    Blackhole, Half Smoke asked if someone could answer some probability questions so I answered them (re-read the posts if you want). I made no mention of Mdawg until he posted something about my calculations being wrong and then all I asked was what was wrong with them. That's it. Mdawg seems like a nice guy.
    I enjoy MDawg's pictures and anecdotes, and I hope he keeps posting them.
    Last edited by tableplay; 02-28-2020 at 08:52 AM.

  7. #107
    Yes Hattie B's is excellent! but can't eat it every day, or, if you do it eat it somewhat often it's best to not eat all of the poultry skin as it's not that healthful. Tasty, but too much fat (and sodium, I imagine).

    Yes this Wrap Around Terrace Suite is the nicest suite I have been in in recent times in Vegas. I would say that it rivals in some ways the Renaissance Suite (1980 sq. feet) at the Venetian, that I used to stay in most every trip back then, or the largest two story Spa Tower suites at the Golden Nugget (also from the past, haven't stayed at the Nugget in years), although this suite is smaller than both at 1200 square feet, but - that wrap around terrace - WOW. The only casinos with balconies that I may think of in Vegas are this one and the Hard Rock (the Platinum Hotel also has large suites with balconies, but no casino).

    Getting back to "statistics" just think, every session at the casino, your own play, or watching the other players - one of three things invariably happens - you go straight down the tubes and are never up, you go straight up and are never down, or you might be down at some points and up at some points. The vast vast majority of the time, the in between course happens, meaning that the vast majority of the time you are UP at some point. What I try to do, is quit when I am ahead. Now, people say, so what - you will come back at some point (I play just one session a day, so for me, that some point means the next day), and then you might lose (more exactly they are saying that over time the house advantage will getchya). However, as long as you understand that the vast majority of the time you will have sessions where you are ahead at some point, and you always leave when ahead, then why is it so hard to accept that quitting when ahead you will win most of your sessions?

    Over the past two years I have had sessions (meaning days) when I quit BEHIND but after those sessions I came back, usually two full days later after any thoughts of "chasing" had dissipated from my head, and attacked the loss in segments, until I was ahead again. One of the biggest ways that gamblers lose is by CHASING losses to the point where they are not playing level headed, and not simply quitting when ahead, but rather trying to force the session to win a certain amount which might not be in the cards for that particular session.

    I recall a trip over a decade ago where I lost $8000. on the night I flew in, in one casino. I should have just stopped right then - I was a little tired, had just flown in, and I was hot over the loss. Instead, I went out and blew $20K at the casino across the street, and took a limo to another casino where I had a line, and blew another 20.

    The next day, playing at the first casino, I was ahead ten grand before you knew it. Now, if I had not chased the night before and accepted that it is okay to go to bed a LOSER, I would have been now up for that trip. Instead, in the back of my mind was that ten grand for this session wasn't enough, and I kept playing, which actually led to losing ANOTHER twenty K, leaving me sixty K down for that trip in just two days. Not good! but my own fault - for chasing, and it took me days to eventually win back that sixty, and it was not easy and it was not fun (until I was back ahead).

    I now realize, having learned the hard way many years ago, that even losing five or ten grand in one night is nothing - I can get that back over the course of the trip. But losing forty or fifty in one night, that's not so easy to get back given that my lines are only fifty each to begin with.

    Anyway, so those are two things to think about - quitting while you are ahead, and not chasing losses. I am a cooly analytical gambler. I try to play without emotion.

    As far as how to win at Baccarat: Some will say that streaks are all imaginary, that we see what we want to see, that there are no patterns in random events.

    But...the difference between Baccarat and dice, for example, is that IF there is a pattern set in that Baccarat shoe, it WILL come up and repeat because the cards are fixed, set, may not be changed, once placed in the shoe.

    While with dice, there is no set future pattern, as each roll of the dice is a truly independent event.

    A subtle, but substantial difference.

    I have heard of Bacc. players who have a general rule of "I bet whatever hand just won." Well for such a player, if he chances upon a shoe with a twenty-two bank or player run, and also has a general rule of pressing after each win, which many Bacc. players do in fact have these two rules, then every time he comes upon a shoe that has runs in it, he will make a lot, especially if he leaves right after the long run and doesn't keep playing that shoe. "Quit while ahead."

    However, these two rules of "always bet whatever just happened" and "press each time you just won" won't necessarily matter with events where the future is not fixed, like in dice rolls. I am not saying this is the way I play - but it is one way to play Baccarat.

    I mean yes, people will come back and say that over time no matter how much you make on runs things will even out over time and you'll give it back trying to bet on runs that never materialize. But, if you play the shoes with a discernible pattern hard and play lightly or simply get up and leave when presented with a random shoe, you might wind up ahead! including over time.

    I could post shoes as examples, and probably will in the future but I need to get this day started. I got lucky with a huge stock market trade buying in the pre- and then selling on the big pop that happened after the opening bell, but over all - the market is in the toilet and all my long term holds (most of them going back to about 13 years ago been holding continuously since then) are way down for the past week in a row! Whom to blame? Well, if this goes on, Trump is history, I will tell you that. Going to the gym, then hit the tables by afternoon is the plan.
    Last edited by MDawg; 02-28-2020 at 08:53 AM.
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  8. #108
    I am not offended by tableplay's statistics. But I mean come on, the odds of winning in a casino at a table game like Baccarat are far better than winning the lotto.

    As Steve Cyr has put it:
    "There's two types of players

    Ones that are here for the cost of entertainment, and you love those guys, win or lose doesn't matter, they're just here to have fun,

    then there's a guy coming here to win we gotta watch that guy there's definitely two types of players, you know a guy that wins Friday night, okay if he's a steamer he's going to steam probably blow his winnings and by Sunday owe me money, a guy's that disciplined [wins] Friday will go home Saturday. So, there's definitely two types of players."

    As Dave Berns added:
    "The one thing the casinos hate about high rollers, are high rollers who are what they call hit and run high rollers, someone who comes in, gambles for a couple of hours, wins some money, and leaves."
    Last edited by MDawg; 02-28-2020 at 08:56 AM.
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  9. #109
    If nothing else, Trump started that virus in China? Got it. No, it should be over by May, new cases are down, some workers returning. Now to time the recovery, when do we hit bottom, and go all in with S&P fund?

  10. #110
    Well, only a fool would sell here, this looks like bottom, and since all I've done is accumulate for thirteen or more years, no way I'm selling today. But still, if a recession hits, Trump is history. You know how it works, you always shoot the messenger whether he is to blame or not.
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  11. #111
    Well if a recession hits, the scapegoat is already here. Then it will probably come down to Socialism vs Capitalism. I'm thinking America is not that stupid to vote for more taxes and more government.

  12. #112
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  13. #113
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    The average bet on winning hands should be greater than $1.047 for each $1 bet on losing hands.
    So for 20 winning hands, if the player bets $1 on 19 hands, and $2 on one hand, then his average bet for those 20 winning hands will be $1.05.

    Is that correct?

  14. #114
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by MDawg View Post
    As planned, no play today. Staying in.

    For dinner we had

    that I brought up from the second floor.

    My compadres and I ate there last time we were in Cosmo. It's one of our staples. We saw Opium, which you really should check out. One of our guys knows a bit about show design (he is friends with a world class illusionist). He said Opium (by the same group that does Absinthe) is oodles better than Absinthe. It is a wild show.

    If you ever get to Nashville, they have Hattie B's, of course, but there is also a place called Prince's Hot Chicken that is other-worldly. I had the medium and it almost killed me.
    Sadly--the original Prince's in Nashville burnt down several years ago and they have decided not to re-open in that location. They did open in a more "suburban" neighborhood. The original had an ambiance (in other words fear for your life) that can't be replaced.

  15. #115
    MDawg wrote:

    "However, these two rules of "always bet whatever just happened" and "press each time you just won" won't necessarily matter with events where the future is not fixed, like in dice rolls. I am not saying this is the way I play - but it is one way to play Baccarat."

    Complete voodoo bullshit.

    MDawg wrote:

    "I mean yes, people will come back and say that over time no matter how much you make on runs things will even out over time and you'll give it back trying to bet on runs that never materialize. But, if you play the shoes with a discernible pattern hard and play lightly or simply get up and leave when presented with a random shoe, you might wind up ahead! including over time."


    " you might wind up ahead! including over time."


    So re-assuring. At least you are being more honest. People should listen to more of what tableplay has to say on the topic.

  16. #116
    ...........................



    Quitting while you're ahead is actually a good strategy for an amateur gambler if it means that overall they will bet less money considering all their gambling over their lifetime because they are less exposed to the house edge.

    But it is not a strategy that can assist a gambler in achieving long term winnings.

    People who say it is a winning strategy are imagining there is a gambling clock and when they stop for the day they have stopped that clock.







    But then they come back tomorrow. So they are believing that they are more likely to win on a Wednesday than they are continuing to play on Tuesday.
    That is 100% false. They are no more likely to win on Wednesday than they are if they kept playing on Tuesday.


    There is no gambling clock. It doesn't exist. And nobody can turn off just the time of losses. It is a figment of the gambler's imagination.


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    Last edited by Half Smoke; 02-28-2020 at 11:51 AM.
    please don't feed the trolls

  17. #117
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by MDawg View Post
    As planned, no play today. Staying in.

    For dinner we had

    that I brought up from the second floor.

    My compadres and I ate there last time we were in Cosmo. It's one of our staples. We saw Opium, which you really should check out. One of our guys knows a bit about show design (he is friends with a world class illusionist). He said Opium (by the same group that does Absinthe) is oodles better than Absinthe. It is a wild show.

    If you ever get to Nashville, they have Hattie B's, of course, but there is also a place called Prince's Hot Chicken that is other-worldly. I had the medium and it almost killed me.
    Sadly--the original Prince's in Nashville burnt down several years ago and they have decided not to re-open in that location. They did open in a more "suburban" neighborhood. The original had an ambiance (in other words fear for your life) that can't be replaced.

    Regnis -- LOL -- you must have read my mind. I wrote and then erased the following comments when I first posted.

    When we went to Prince's (the original that burned down), it was 2 AM. We had seen an MMA event in Nashville. Anyway, when we got to Prince's, the place was packed. But we were the only white dudes in there except for a monstrous guy with a full-size marijuana leaf tattoo covering his huge bald head.

    So yeah, MDawg should be okay in the new one.

    My compadres and I like to say that we're at home in any environment. The old Prince's at 2 AM on Sunday morning is one of those environments we're talking about.

  18. #118
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Quitting while you're ahead is actually a good strategy for an amateur gambler if it means that overall they will bet less money considering all their gambling over their lifetime because they are less exposed to the house edge.

    But it is not a strategy that can assist a gambler in achieving long term winnings.
    Does your statement above answer the OP's earlier question below?

    Originally Posted by MDawg View Post
    as long as you understand that the vast majority of the time you will have sessions where you are ahead at some point, and you always leave when ahead, then why is it so hard to accept that quitting when ahead you will win most of your sessions?
    Do you not accept that quitting while ahead will result in winning most sessions played?

  19. #119
    These guys who think that Baccarat is unbeatable or that quitting while ahead doesn't work are just repeating what they heard or read, or spouting theories. Also, not one of them has spent probably even a ten hour session playing Baccarat on a weekend let alone played for YEARS as I have, so again, just theory.

    The reality is that that I've beaten the casinos lifetime via both BJ and Baccarat, and through a combination of BJ and Baccarat haven't had a losing trip since returning to gambling in 2018. I'd also have to say that most of my play over the past two years has been Baccarat.

    I return regularly because I experience no harm in it.
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  20. #120
    Originally Posted by MDawg View Post

    The reality is that that I've beaten the casinos lifetime via both BJ and Baccarat, and through a combination of BJ and Baccarat haven't had a losing trip since returning to gambling in 2018.
    So far I have just enjoyed your 'trip report' and pictures. I have refrained from much comment because I don't play baccarat and have very little knowledge of it. I know there are some like JSTAT, that believe you can win at baccarat by counting. I have no idea.

    But I have been wondering for a few days how you are claiming to gain an advantage at blackjack. So I am going to ask that now. Please don't tell me it is this "quit while you are ahead voodoo".
    Last edited by kewlJ; 02-28-2020 at 01:08 PM.

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