The Adventures of MDawg (in progress)

[coach belly]

why don't you mimic MDawg? There's nothing complicated about what he is doing. Coach can join you.

You can mimic MDawg too. So why don't you?

[MDawg]

Someone mentioned Hawaii - parents have an ocean front estate, a second home, on one of the islands and we go there regularly. In fact, we will be spending most of an upcoming month on a tropical island (not at my parents house). And - whoever posted that about would rather spend time on a beach versus in Vegas is standing shoulder to shoulder with my wife, who gets bored with Vegas after about a week. She puts up with my long stays in Vegas because I win, and because she likes the spas and the convenience of having a full gym just an elevator ride away. If it were a losing proposition, we would not come to Vegas so often.

But still, over all, we spend about as much time per year traveling to NON-casino resorts as to Vegas, I just don't post about it at gambling forums.

My business is such that I am able to handle much of it remotely, and then also I have some business, such as the office building we just bought, that is directly in Vegas anyway.

Last night during the same time that I won 6400 I watched some other players at a different table get an 11 player run right out the gate and lose all their money betting against it. Also at my own table although most everyone was winning alongside me most won less than me (one won much more) due to different bet spreads. Typically by the end of the trip my money management skills are a great part of why I leave the resort ahead, and others, even others who won alongside me during sessions, do not.

[MDawg]

I'll tell you one thing that DOES get to me in Vegas, besides the smoking in the casinos which I detest - there is something in the sheets that after staying long enough, irritates my skin. Not to the point of rash, but just gets itchy. This happens after staying more than a week or so. This trip I've requested hypoallergenic sheets and towels in each room we have been in, and that seems to help. I guess they just use harsh detergents or bleaches on their normal sheets.

[House of Orange]

I guess they just use harsh detergents or bleaches on their normal sheets.

As well they should!

[Half Smoke]

It has been show that it is statistically highly improbable, that a person could play baccarat and win every time, for a great many sessions (not considering edge sorting or cheating).

MDawg has tried to explain this by saying that he bets streaks, presses wins, quits while he's ahead and doesn't chase losses.

Every knowledgeable gambler knows that these methods cannot give a gambler a long term advantage.

MDawg is reporting his results.

I don't recall him claiming that he has a long term statistical advantage, or that his amount of play even qualifies as the mathematical "long term".

tableplay wrote earlier that a player need only bet an average of 4.7% more on winning hands vs losing hands to win over 800 total hands.

Wouldn't pressing into a streak of 5 or 6 banker or player wins in a row per shoe accomplish that?

I'm going to answer that even though I'm pretty sure the answer won't satisfy you.
The answer is no. Because you can only be sure a streak is a streak after it's over, not before it has proved itself to be a streak.

If you try to do that sometimes you will lose on your 1st bet when you believe you see a streak coming and bet a greater amount.
Sometimes you will lose on your 2nd bet where you have bet an even greater amount.
Sometimes you will lose on your 3rd bet where you have bet an even greater amount.
Sometimes you will lose on your 4th bet where you have bet an even greater amount.
Sometimes you will lose on your 5th bet where you have bet an even greater amount.
And if you go for 6 in a row, sometimes you will lose on your 6th bet where you have bet an even greater amount.
The very, very few times you succeed cannot compensate for the times you failed and lost more than you would if you had flat bet because you bet more and therefore lost more than if you had flat bet - referring to the long run - anything can happen in a very short session.
But he has played many, many hours which has to at some point approach closely to what long term results would be considering the effect of the house edge.

Again, at least 20 or 25% of craps players press their bets aggressively and I don't think anybody believes that 20 or 25% of craps players are long term winners.
Anything can happen in a short one time session but no betting progression can overcome the house edge in the long run.

If it could and there was a person who could prove that it could - that person would be celebrated by the intellectual community and in no time he would be famous all over the world.

[BoSox]

why don't you mimic MDawg? There's nothing complicated about what he is doing. Coach can join you.

You can mimic MDawg too. So why don't you?

Coach, mickeycrimm does not have to believe in fantasy stories, he uses proven mathematical principals to obtain the edges that he achieves. Not something like what you wrote in post #140 quoted below:

"Wouldn't pressing into a streak of 5 or 6 banker or player wins in a row per shoe accomplish that?"

Asking questions like this you should expect to receive some negativity in a few responses.

[coach belly]

mickeycrimm does not have to believe in fantasy stories

Are you calling MDawg a liar?

[coach belly]

The very, very few times you succeed cannot compensate for the times you failed and lost more than you would if you had flat bet because you bet more and therefore lost more than if you had flat bet

If you flat bet X, the most you can lose is X.

If you double your bet after each win, which hand of the streak must you lose, whereby you'll be down more than X for the series of N wins and 1 loss?

[BoSox]

mickeycrimm does not have to believe in fantasy stories

Are you calling MDawg a liar?

No, I do not even think about his exploits, as I could care less.

[MDawg]

These guys are spouting theories, none of them has played any Baccarat to mention. This is a GAMBLING forum waste of time to listen to pencil pushers who haven't lived it.

The reality of my winning on yet another trip is this envelope full of cash plus the flag I haven't even cashed yet - total about $15K so far.


That envelope was empty when we pulled into Vegas ten days or so ago. It didn't fill up magically, it didn't fill up based on theory.

I know what I am doing here. That we could be in Vegas this long, move along resort to resort and stay ahead means something.

[coach belly]

mickeycrimm does not have to believe in fantasy stories

Are you calling MDawg a liar?

No, I do not even think about his exploits, as I could care less.

LOL...you are reading and posting in a thread called "The Adventures of MDawg".

In the context of this discussion...whose fantasy stories do you mean?

[BoSox]

No, I do not even think about his exploits, as I could care less.

LOL...you are reading and posting in a thread called "The Adventures of MDawg".

In the context of this discussion...whose fantasy stories do you mean?

Let's just say that I am a strong believer in the fact that no matter how hard you try you cannot make a negative expectation game positive unless you are comp hustling or using different forms of advantage play.

[coach belly]

you cannot make a negative expectation game positive unless you are comp hustling or using different forms of advantage play.

You evaded my question about whose fantasy stories you were talking about, especially considering the OP and the title of the thread.

But OK...are you talking about expectation, or results?

I don't recall MDawg making any claims about expectation, which signifies what should happen.

He's reporting his results...signifying what has happened.

His reports seem to be met with some skepticism.

What evidence can he produce to confirm his reports, that wouldn't be met with the same skepticism?

[kewlJ]

Let's just say that I am a strong believer in the fact that no matter how hard you try you cannot make a negative expectation game positive unless you are comp hustling or using different forms of advantage play.

Agree 100% and I often argue this very point. Only thing I would add is the word 'long-term'. A player can of course beat -EV games short-term, but not long-term. There is always a discussion of what constitutes "long-term" and I don't know the exact answer. Certainly a "trip" or couple of trips falls under short-term or small sample size. But you start talking about 40, 60, 80 "trips", and winning every trip, playing -EV games, well, I find that hard to believe. like 19 y.o's in a row hard to believe.

[MDawg]

Bacc tournament rules for today.

[coach belly]

I find that hard to believe. like 19 y.o's in a row hard to believe.

You've called AM (among others) a liar many times.

Are you calling MDawg a liar too?

Being a known and proven liar yourself, you probably expect everybody else to lie all the time too, just like you do.

[BoSox]

coach belly wrote:

"His reports seem to be met with some skepticism."

Do you find that strange?

coach belly wrote:

What evidence can he produce to confirm his reports, that wouldn't be met with the same skepticism?

It is very evident that proving what is on his written posts is NOT on his priority list. If you want to believe him be my guest. If I must take this ongoing exploit serious I feel he is just lucky for the SHORT TERM nothing more as KewlJ just said above.

[kewlJ]

I find that hard to believe. like 19 y.o's in a row hard to believe.

You've called AM (among others) a liar many times.

Are you calling MDawg a liar too?

Being a known and proven liar yourself, you probably expect everybody else to lie all the time too, just like you do.

Typical coach belly.

I have called Alan "dishonest" a number of times, because Alan has lied, manipulated or stretched the truth many, many times about many topics. More stretching and manipulating the truth and general dishonesty than lying. For Example, I believe Alan saw something unusual with the 19 y.o. in a row. He may think he saw that, when it was actually less. Kind of a selective memory thing. So I have tried to give him the benefit of doubt.

Here is another example of Alan, that involves me. When we were discussing tracking 2 tables, Alan got up at 3am and ran out to a strip casino (I believe Caesars) and took intentional blurry pictures of a blackjack table not in use, from 3 feet off the ground and a funny angle and again, let me emphasize, intentionally blurry. He did this trying to indicate this is what a person would see from 6-8 feet away. So let me ask you coach belly, was this honest?

Along the same lines, I have not used the word "liar" in regards to MDawg. While I don't believe he has won 40 trips in a row, unless there is something going on that he is not telling us, perhaps some very strong advantage play that he is not able to divulge. In the absence of that, I think maybe he is dealing with a case of selective memory. This is very common among gamblers. They remember either the wins or losses differently than they really occurred.

But it doesn't matter to me. I encounter many many players on these forums that I think are stretching the truth (to be kind), exaggerating, which again is a common trait among gamblers, especially losing gamblers. And while I am being kind in terminology here, I don't even care if a person is flat out intentionally lying, unless they are doing so in a manner that is intentionally harming other players, like insisting that this "system" works, encouraging others to follow, and that includes, (self-publishing) books.

So, while you, coach belly, are trying to get me to call MDawg a liar, I am not doing so, and I think his participation here is appropriate and I find it interesting and entertaining.

[redietz]

mickeycrimm does not have to believe in fantasy stories

Are you calling MDawg a liar?

LOL -- I think both "sides" of this debate have their fingers up their rectums.

I have much to say on this, but I'll save most of it for some blog articles and such. In the meantime, here's some obvious observations that evidently neither "side" has considered.

1) MDawg is a fictional character. It's an internet name.
2) "The Adventures of MDawg" doesn't necessarily claim to be non-fiction.
3) Coach belly is essentially arguing that "The Adventures" as presented actually happened.
4) It's possible that "The Adventures of MDawg" is non-fiction, but he is one of those end-of-the-bell-curve survivors who has indeed won as stated.
5) The above (4) could also conceivably be the result of a "reporting bias." This would be similar to academic journal results publishing results showing something more often than they publish results showing chance results. All of the people who have played like MDawg and lost don't bother to report their results with nice pics.
6) The problem with this, from coach belly's perspective, is that going forward MDawg should experience chance results.
7) I can almost guarantee that MDawg won't be reporting chance results going forward.
8) Most important, and kewlJ and I share an attitude on this, do the people administrating a forum have an obligation and responsibility to point out the first seven things I listed so that innumerate forum readers (the vast majority of the American population) don't go out and try to emulate these possibly fictional adventures?

[coach belly]

When we were discussing tracking 2 tables, Alan got up at 3am and ran out to a strip casino (I believe Caesars) and took intentional blurry pictures of a blackjack table not in use, from 3 feet off the ground and a funny angle and again, let me emphasize, intentionally blurry. He did this trying to indicate this is what a person would see from 6-8 feet away. So let me ask you coach belly, was this honest?

What you have written above is an outright fabrication of the events that took place...you are a known and proven liar, and you are lying about this incident as well.