The Adventures of MDawg (in progress)

[coach belly]

I think it would be impossible to prove that he is winning at Baccarat in the long run. The keyword in the rest of your post is "recent".

I was asking about his recent trip reports...are you certain that MDawg has not won what he has claimed in the recent trip reports, that his reported results were fabricated?

Regarding the long run and what's possible to prove...how many consecutive winning trips would it be possible to prove?

What documentation could MDawg provide to prove (to your satisfaction) any number of consecutive winning trips?

[tableplay]

I think it would be impossible to prove that he is winning at Baccarat in the long run. The keyword in the rest of your post is "recent".

I was asking about his recent trip reports...are you certain that MDawg has not won what he has claimed in the recent trip reports, that his reported results were fabricated?

Regarding the long run and what's possible to prove...how many consecutive winning trips would it be possible to prove?

What documentation could MDawg provide to prove (to your satisfaction) any number of consecutive winning trips?

Mdawg's profit or loss on his recent trips is unknowable by me - ultimately, the evidence that casinos make a profit is satisfactory to me that winning in the long run by the bettor that has a negative expectation is impossible. I don't see how casinos could afford to stay open and how they could make a profit if this weren't the case. If this is not satisfactory evidence for you that is your prerogative. Based on the evidence that casinos make a profit in the long run, I am very comfortable stating that winning at Baccarat is impossible in the long run. The 1 in 20 million figure provided to Half Smoke satisfies me as well.

[coach belly]

Mdawg's profit or loss on his recent trips is unknowable by me

Therefore, you are not certain that he has lost for the recent trips...is that correct?

I don't see how casinos could afford to stay open and how they could make a profit if this weren't the case. If this is not satisfactory evidence for you that is your prerogative.

I haven't asked any questions or made any comment about casino profit, or the viability of their business model.

Can one winning player cause a LV Strip casino to fail?

But I was asking about player claims of winning, and how those claims can be substantiated on a forum such as this one.

What documentation can a player provide to prove that he has won at baccarat for any period of time?...a shoe, a session, a day, a trip, consecutive trips, or for all trips combined?

[tableplay]

Mdawg's profit or loss on his recent trips is unknowable by me

Therefore, you are not certain that he has lost for the recent trips...is that correct?

I don't see how casinos could afford to stay open and how they could make a profit if this weren't the case. If this is not satisfactory evidence for you that is your prerogative.

I haven't asked any questions or made any comment about casino profit, or the viability of their business model.

Can one winning player cause a LV Strip casino to fail?

But I was asking about player claims of winning, and how those claims can be substantiated on a forum such as this one.

What documentation can a player provide to prove that he has won at baccarat for any period of time?...a shoe, a session, a day, a trip, consecutive trips, or for all trips combined?

Correct I am not certain he lost on his recent trips as I stated previously. I am comfortable stating that I am certain he has lost in the long run and that there is only a 1 and 20 million chance that he has won over the the stated sessions that Half Smoke outlined. I do not think a winning player can cause an LV strip casino to fail - this is because, as I already stated, in aggregate the casino will win in the long run. As already stated there is no documentation a player can provide that he has won (or lost for that matter) at baccarat for any period of time - we were not present during the sessions. I am satisfied with the evidence provided me by the law of large numbers that casinos profit by offering games in which the have an edge. Otherwise, as far as I'm concerned they would have had to shutter their doors long ago. So I have now addressed why I feel it is impossible that Mdawg is a winning player in the long run. You may choose to believe otherwise if you wish.

[coach belly]

Correct I am not certain he lost on his recent trips

I do not think a winning player can cause an LV strip casino to fail - this is because, as I already stated, in aggregate the casino will win in the long run.

You've stipulated above that a player can win at a negative expectation game, but such a winning player cannot cause a casino to fail, because the casino will win in the aggregate.

Must every player lose for the aggregate of their individual baccarat play in order for the casino to operate a profitable baccarat game?

[redietz]

Correct I am not certain he lost on his recent trips

I do not think a winning player can cause an LV strip casino to fail - this is because, as I already stated, in aggregate the casino will win in the long run.

You've stipulated above that a player can win at a negative expectation game, but such a winning player cannot cause a casino to fail, because the casino will win in the aggregate.

Must every player lose for the aggregate of their individual baccarat play in order for the casino to operate a profitable baccarat game?

More importantly, coach, from a strict logical standpoint, if MDawg gets the best ribs from the buffet, does that mean other buffet players lose out? And if he gets the ribs from room service, and they are the best (MDawg always gets the best, unless it's tuna), have other guests missed out on the best ribs?

And what about if MDawg's hot wife distracts him and he doesn't eat the best ribs? Does that mean nobody ever eats the best ribs from the kitchen? How does the chef feel about this? Would it matter if he knew how hot MDawg's wife was?

See, now we're getting into the nitty probability gritty here, the important stuff. The stuff that tells us, probabilistically, who wins, loses, and who's the lead MDawg!

[tableplay]

Correct I am not certain he lost on his recent trips

I do not think a winning player can cause an LV strip casino to fail - this is because, as I already stated, in aggregate the casino will win in the long run.

You've stipulated above that a player can win at a negative expectation game, but such a winning player cannot cause a casino to fail, because the casino will win in the aggregate.

Must every player lose for the aggregate of their individual baccarat play in order for the casino to operate a profitable baccarat game?

I've stipulated only that a player can win over the short term at a negative expectation game. Every player does not have to lose for the casino to make money in aggregate. Coach, ultimately we are left with the following question:
Which is more likely to have occurred,
1) In the population of players who has had at least the number of hands played and aggregate amount wagered as that of Mdawg (as posted by Mdawg himself and as nicely summarized by Half Smoke) playing Baccarat straight up (we're not talking about edge sorting or the over-rating grifts that Monet posted about), the 1 out of 20 million player in this population has decided to grace us here at VCT with his posts about the winnings

or


2) A poster (an affable and harmless individual) of fictional profitable Baccarat results who provides us with enjoyable pictures and narratives has decided to post here at VCT ?

So for me least, I think number 2 is the answer to this question (1 in 20 million posted for the shorter run is good enough for me to feel comfortable to assert that in the long run, playing winning Baccarat is impossible since the probability will be even less than 1 in 20 million). You a certainly entitled to think it is number 1 that has occurred.

[coach belly]

I've stipulated only that a player can win over the short term at a negative expectation game.

We have a player that appears to be posting real-time trip reports, with substantial documentation of his gaming activity for each trip.

You maintain that a player can win over the short term at a negative expectation game.

But when a player makes a conscientious effort to document that his play has produced a short-term win, you dismiss his effort as fiction.

When asked what documentation MDawg could provide to convince you that he has won at baccarat for any period of time, you answered that there is none - unless you witnessed the session.

So you are convinced that a player can win at baccarat in the short-term, but you cannot be convinced that MDawg has won at baccarat in the short term, because you did not witness it...do I have that right?

Whether it be one shoe, an hour, a session, a day, week, trip, month, year, or lifetime...you'll never be convinced that MDawg or anyone has won at baccarat for any period of time unless you witnessed it.

Is that correct?

[tableplay]

I've stipulated only that a player can win over the short term at a negative expectation game.

We have a player that appears to be posting real-time trip reports, with substantial documentation of his gaming activity for each trip.

You maintain that a player can win over the short term at a negative expectation game.

But when a player makes a conscientious effort to document that his play has produced a short-term win, you dismiss his effort as fiction.

When asked what documentation MDawg could provide to convince you that he has won at baccarat for any period of time, you answered that there is none - unless you witnessed the session.

So you are convinced that a player can win at baccarat in the short-term, but you cannot be convinced that MDawg has won at baccarat in the short term, because you did not witness it...do I have that right?

Whether it be one shoe, an hour, a session, a day, week, trip, month, year, or lifetime...you'll never be convinced that MDawg or anyone has won at baccarat for any period of time unless you witnessed it.

Is that correct?

The documentation that Mdawg provided has led to the the question in my previous post. One or the other must be true. I choose #2. Are you disagreeing that one or the other must be true ?

[coach belly]

The documentation that Mdawg provided has led to the the question in my previous post. One or the other must be true. I choose #2. Are you disagreeing that one or the other must be true ?

I disagree that one or the other must be true...neither scenario must necessarily be true.

Must the truth be dependent upon only one or the other of the scenarios that you've considered?

[tableplay]

The documentation that Mdawg provided has led to the the question in my previous post. One or the other must be true. I choose #2. Are you disagreeing that one or the other must be true ?

I disagree that one or the other must be true...neither scenario must necessarily be true.

Must the truth be dependent upon only one or the other of the scenarios that you've considered?

You stated that you disagree, so you've answered your own question.

[Half Smoke]

.................................


That Dawg doesn't just crush Bac - he crushes the stock market too!!!!!!

Here's one of his quotes from his investments thread on WOV............................"Today's action, exactly as predicted by MDawg last night!"


with just one click you can follow along too!!!!!.................lucky you.

unfortunately for us here, that Dawg doesn't have an investment thread here.

so I'm posting a link to his investment thread on WOV:



https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-...tment-stories/



Why doesn't everybody ask that Dawg nicely to have an investment thread here too.

So everybody here too can learn from his market wisdom.

[redietz]

.................................


That Dawg doesn't just crush Bac - he crushes the stock market too!!!!!!

Here's one of his quotes from his investments thread on WOV............................"Today's action, exactly as predicted by MDawg last night!"


with just one click you can follow along too!!!!!.................lucky you.

unfortunately for us here, that Dawg doesn't have an investment thread here.

so I'm posting a link to his investment thread on WOV:







https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-...tment-stories/



Why doesn't everybody ask that Dawg nicely to have an investment thread here too.

So everybody here too can learn from his market wisdom.

If the Dawg had been my life coach, I'd have my own Sister Wives show with Raquel Welch, Nastassja Kinski, and Angelina Jolie.

The things I've missed...plus ribs. Man, oh man, why didn't I meet MDawg in my youth?

[The Boz]

MDawg shoved his cock down the throat of the Wizard again today. While only discussing a few popular stocks like Amazon and Tesla, he looks at daily highs and lows and wild swings, which will happen in a market like this.

But of course after the fact he bought on the days lows, sold minutes later on the daily highs and made huge profits. And like reading the cards (Non Phil Ivey style), only he can see the highs and lows of the day. He simple can’t lose money.

And the Wizard has to sit back and allow it on his forum built on math. While MD makes a mockery of his site. I congratulate MD on doing what many never could.

[redietz]

MDawg shoved his cock down the throat of the Wizard again today. While only discussing a few popular stocks like Amazon and Tesla, he looks at daily highs and lows and wild swings, which will happen in a market like this.

But of course after the fact he bought on the days lows, sold minutes later on the daily highs and made huge profits. And like reading the cards (Non Phil Ivey style), only he can see the highs and lows of the day. He simple can’t lose money.

And the Wizard has to sit back and allow it on his forum built on math. While MD makes a mockery of his site. I congratulate MD on doing what many never could.

Now if only someone could make a mockery of MDawg's making a mockery....

"I love it when a plan comes together."
Colonel John Hannibal Smith

[accountinquestion]

MDawg shoved his cock down the throat of the Wizard again today.

Are you closeted ?

You love the homosexual imagery.

[mickeycrimm]

MDawg shoved his cock down the throat of the Wizard again today.

Are you closeted ?

You love the homosexual imagery.

It's okay to come out of the closet, acuntinquestion. KJ will commend you for it.

[monet]

MDawg shoved his cock down the throat of the Wizard again today.

Are you closeted ?

You love the homosexual imagery.

It's okay to come out of the closet, acuntinquestion. KJ will commend you for it.

[AxelWolf]

I've stipulated only that a player can win over the short term at a negative expectation game.

We have a player that appears to be posting real-time trip reports, with substantial documentation of his gaming activity for each trip.

You maintain that a player can win over the short term at a negative expectation game.

But when a player makes a conscientious effort to document that his play has produced a short-term win, you dismiss his effort as fiction.

When asked what documentation MDawg could provide to convince you that he has won at baccarat for any period of time, you answered that there is none - unless you witnessed the session.

So you are convinced that a player can win at baccarat in the short-term, but you cannot be convinced that MDawg has won at baccarat in the short term, because you did not witness it...do I have that right?

Whether it be one shoe, an hour, a session, a day, week, trip, month, year, or lifetime...you'll never be convinced that MDawg or anyone has won at baccarat for any period of time unless you witnessed it.

Is that correct?

I have only seen markers, cash and chips. If that's all the evidence you need then lets hope you never.. NVM

[BoSox]

coach belly you should listen a little more to tableplay.