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Thread: The Adventures of MDawg (in progress)

  1. #801
    Originally Posted by MDawg View Post
    And see, now it becomes painfully obvious that you have no idea what any of this means.

    The correct answer for all of those scenarios is not a yes or no, but IT DEPENDS ON THE VARIANCE. This is short term, remember? Variance in terms of gambling means situations where you end up winning more hands than would be statistically expected. So are you still going to tell me that if you end up in a situation, where for WHATEVER reason, you end up winning 10 out of 12 hands, that you are going to still just win the same amount if you flat bet a 100, versus you press into that bet all the way up to $1200.?

    Anyway, I won't get into the advanced part of this, as to what that means on a Baccarat table for a player like me.
    It has already been shown that if you play 1 million hands, variance will be crushed. Are you planning to quit forever after you win your pressed 10 bets ?

  2. #802
    I didn't play a million hands over 8 trips pal. And even if I had, the way you get at a 7% chance that someone may wind up ahead even after 1 million hands is that you have to still assume some chance of variance extending out over even that many hands, and that is the calculation that your flat line simple number crunching doesn't take into effect. Which is why I said that you set up the whole problem wrong in the first place.

    And in any case, you still calculated the odds of coming out ahead after just 8 trips at twenty million to one, which is absurd. You never figured in any variance, because you have no idea what it is or means and couldn't begin to know how to input it into a simple linear number crunching, since variance isn't inputed into a simple linear number crunch. You just keep talking about 49.3% probability. Good night. Enjoy future MDawg adventures.
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  3. #803
    Originally Posted by MDawg View Post
    I didn't play a million hands over 8 trips pal. And even if I had, the way you get at a 7% chance that someone may wind up ahead even after 1 million hands is that you have to still assume some chance of variance extending out over even that many hands, and that is the calculation that your flat line simple number crunching doesn't take into effect. Which is why I said that you set up the whole problem wrong in the first place.

    And in any case, you still calculated the odds of coming out ahead after just 8 trips at twenty million to one. You never figured in any variance, because you have no idea what it is or means. You just keep talking about 49.3% probability. Good night. Enjoy future MDawg adventures.
    You have virtually no chance of being ahead after 1 million hands. How did you arrive at a 7% calculation ? I stand by my 20 million to 1 calculation. I even verified the methodology since it agrees with that at betfirm.com.

  4. #804

  5. #805
    MD: I never said non AP's, ploppies, average Joe can't win, they certainly can. AAMOF I said it's not even mathematically unreasonable that you could have won. The totality of everything you have said and your entire persona adds up to bullshit.

    Your system is a mathematical loser, unless in fact you actually have a mathematical advantage, but you're just not savvy enough to realize it. If not, assuming you're actually winning thus far, eventually you will lose if you're playing a -EV game.

    I don't need to float lines of credit, I have cash and can put up front money.

  6. #806
    Originally Posted by MDawg View Post
    BTW PokerGrinder now has FIVE suspensions at WOV. And the difference between what he did and I did, is that with mine it was some kind of B.S. "pending" thing that they had to huddle over and think about whether it was suspension worthy at all. In PG's case what he posted was so bad that it had to be deleted, which has happened only to two WOV members in the history of WOV - PG and...you guessed it, BOZ! (Interestingly, the only other guy who came on here and backed up PokerGrinder as far as Axel's two facedness.) PG's comment was directed at me, Boz's comment was directed at the Wizard. Why they exploded like that and got themselves suspended, I don't know. I guess they just hit their boiling points. PokerGrinder has confessed that he suffers from mental illness - Boz, what is your excuse for losing it?


    Anyway, last night I posted about how futures were red (which, at WOV, brought yet another stupid comment from mentally ill Darkov which led to his suspension (hmm...PokerGrinder and DarkOv are BOTH mentally ill I guess this explains their affinity), but that anything could happen by morning. Well, here we are, the stock market is, at least at the moment GREEN. I haven't done any trades yet, but my long terms are mostly up nicely, with pretty much just TSLA dragging me down some. AMZN especially is doing well for me.

    Mickey, if you plan on being around any length of time, or even just for the sake of your heirs, as your attorney I advise you to consider some blue chip stock investments, NOW! Take your money out of that shoebox and PM me for direct stock tips. I've been in the stock market all my adult life and done quite well at it.
    Wow you really are the low of the low. I am not mentally ill you moron, I deal with depression which is VERY common. It’s just laughable that you think I posted what I did because of mental illness. I take antidepressants, I’m seeing a wonderful girl, I have a good income and great family and friends. I’m currently as happy as they come even though I’m bored from being stuck inside. I posted what I posted at WoV because I wanted to say it not cause my mental illness told me to dumbass. Btw nice try trying to get me nuked but that wasn’t going to work.

  7. #807
    Also, MD in regards to you calling me 2 faced please show me evidence of that. You're grasping at straws by gloaming onto what was said by one person in which I have only had forum interactions with. The situation was unique and complicated. Let's just say things went down exactly how he believes it to have It would be borderline 2 facedness and not of a high significance in the grand scheme of things. Certainly not to any level that should have any real bearing on who I am over all as a person or how I conduct myself in general. If he feels strongly about it and truly believes that while thinking the worst, Ill accept it. Ill apologize to him and I'll be mindful and make double sure I don't do anything that would be considered 2 faced in the future. When Mickey said what he said it seemed to him I was being 2 faced and attacking him, if it had been him I was quoting he would have had good reason to think that. HOWEVER, It was a mistake as I was addressing and quoted someone else.

    I noticed you have resorted to getting personal i.e. the Captain Morgan thing, calling 2 faced There was the fact you were spreading lies about me living in the Northtown ghetto but since that's a complete lie and known to be one by many people on the forums no need to go further, it just goes to show you don't care about the truth.

    The Captain Morgan thing doesn't bother me in the slightest. I have been more than open with the fact that I liked to party with way too many drinks at times. Most everyone knows this. I have Partied hard with lots of members from the forums. I'm a social drinker who can over do it. I never drank at home, I don't beat my wife(no kids), I don't make crazy drunk posts, I don't have to have it. I went more than a year without as of February , I went to a party over a month ago where I drank a good amount and haven't wanted to drink since then.

    If the Captain Morgan and the 2 faced thing is all you got....God blessed me.
    Last edited by AxelWolf; 03-31-2020 at 02:17 AM.

  8. #808
    MDawg is the Inspector Clouseau of gambling math.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  9. #809
    Name:  
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    This is the expert button pusher Mickeycrimm in action. I know he claims to be sober the last couple years, but what about before that during his prime making all that coin?

    This is the guy lecturing, threatening, and cursing out everyone.

  10. #810
    Originally Posted by blackhole View Post
    Name:  
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    This is the expert button pusher Mickeycrimm in action. I know he claims to be sober the last couple years, but what about before that during his prime making all that coin?

    This is the guy lecturing, threatening, and cursing out everyone.
    Mickey had a near death experience just about 4 months ago! He has every right to be a little ornery and crotchety!
    https://photos.app.goo.gl/Zk2WAFzDcrJ7pjNB7

    Take comfort in the fact that no one is actually backing up his wishes to have you permanantly banned.


    Smart is knowing a Tomato is a fruit.

    Wise is knowing a Tomato doesn't belong in a fruit salad.



    I am glad to get my full posting rights back! Thank you Dan!

  11. #811
    Originally Posted by Tasha View Post
    Originally Posted by blackhole View Post
    Name:  
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    This is the expert button pusher Mickeycrimm in action. I know he claims to be sober the last couple years, but what about before that during his prime making all that coin?

    This is the guy lecturing, threatening, and cursing out everyone.
    Mickey had a near death experience just about 4 months ago! He has every right to be a little ornery and crotchety!
    That doesn't explain the 5 years prior! J/K

  12. #812
    ........................................







    Dawg: you've been booted off of WOV again.......................poor little you....................so unfair.

    And you're taking an awful lot of heat here. That's a real shame. It can't be much fun.

    I am just posting to reassure you.

    You will never have any kind of problem at gamblingforums.com.

    You're going to feel real comfy over there with all the other big systems winners there.

    They're going to eat your stuff up.

    You'll always have a home there.

    Enjoy.
    please don't feed the trolls

  13. #813
    PokerGrinder, anyone who would post something like what you posted, if you are saying it did not come from the darkness of mental illness, is trash.

    Yes half smoke, you don't have to tell me that I was booted off WOV I know, and yes it is being discussed to death at GF, and at WOV itself.

    The kind of bozos you have at WOV are like the weirdo sock puppet who came out of nowhere a week ago, who now claims with a post he made today that "at least four properties" are currently looking into how MDawg was overcomped. Right, so while their doors are boarded shut with plywood and no one is at work and thousands in the casino industry are being laid off, in the midst of ALL THAT they are trying to figure out who this high roller is on some internet forum and whether or not he received too many comps. As one of you have said, "You can't make this stuff up."
    Last edited by MDawg; 03-31-2020 at 07:21 AM.
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  14. #814
    We're green in the market again today! Started off with some hesitancy, but looking good right now.
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  15. #815
    Originally Posted by blackhole View Post
    This is the guy lecturing, threatening, and cursing out everyone.
    And thats when I'm in a good mood. You dont want to see me in a bad mood. Haha!
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  16. #816
    Originally Posted by MDawg View Post
    is that you have to still assume some chance of variance extending out over even that many hand
    So let's go the variance route then for 1 million hands played:
    1. The mean # of hands won (as Player) at Baccarat is 0.493*1,000,000 or 493,000 hands won since the player will win 49.3% of his hands on average.
    2. The standard deviation of playing 1,000,000 hands is sqrt(n*p*q) where p = 0.493 and q = 1-.493 and n=1,000,000. This equates to 499.95 hands.
    3. To get to a break-even point of 500000, you would have to be (500,000-493,000)/499.5 standard deviations away from the mean on the positive side which equates to 1,000.1 standard deviations. Note that 3 standard deviations is considered quite unusual - I'm not sure what adjective could be used for observing a 1000 standard deviation event.
    4. If you don't flat bet, then you'd better get your guessing right, like Mickey says, because you are playing a million hands of guesswork. Not to mention that if you have a sequence of N bets that are not flat, the sequence can broken up into N different flat bets. So if you a sequence like 5,10,5000 as your sequence of bets, you can think of it as making a bet of 5 (.493 chance of winning). Then going back the hotel to bang your wife, and then, since you are a high roller, the dealer was waiting for you to come back, after you finished with your wife, to deal the 2nd hand of the shoe, so that you could make your 10 dollar bet. Well then you are horny again and go back to the room for more. Again the dealer waits, and then you make your 5000 bet when he deals the 3rd hand from the shoe. Like, the other two bets, there is a 49.3% chance of winning the bet. The chance is not greater than it was for the other two bets. Good luck with your guesses.

  17. #817
    Originally Posted by MDawg View Post
    TablePlay: Nor does Axel waste time crunching irrelevant flat win numbers. Even his post in my thread concedes that anything may happen - due to variance. And no, variance is not defined as considering every permutation while maintaining the exact same flat win percentage possibility, but it may be calculated with math that is more advanced than what you seem capable of handling. Thanks anyway for showing us where the flaw was in your calculations, but even with such a major flaw you still should not have arrived at a twenty million to one chance of my winning after 8 Vegas trips. And you don't even know how many hands I played, what games I played (I played both Baccarat and BJ), how I played them, what exactly the house edge was on each game and whether what form of what you wannabees call "advantage" play I was utilizing changed the house edge. But in any case, variance does not assure a Baccarat loss any more than card counting assures a BJ win.

    Anyway tableplay, please go back to pinball. If you enjoy my thread, as you have said you do, fine. Otherwise, I won't waste time arguing with someone who tries to use simple addition and multiplication where calculus or the equivalent is needed.

    Axel: I made a post about my BTC in my thread somewhere, I think it was yesterday. What do you want now? A financial statement and a picture of my house and cars? I know you don't want or expect anything like that.

    Another thing I feel is two faced is how even after I posted the video of the timepieces you still make allusions to "fake" watches in my WOV thread. No I don't think you believe any longer that any of my watches is "fake," especially after I posted the video of me weighing them to show that they are all made of platinum or 18K gold, and that the weights are right on with expected weights for those Rolex and other Swiss timepieces, but that you'd go back to mentioning the possibility of fake Rolexes on the wrist of that clown whose videos you posted in my WOV thread, is a two faced sort of thing too. It also shows me that you don't know anything about high roller play. No high roller would wear a fake watch at a Baccarat table. That's my peer group! Take a look around a high end Baccarat table and you'll often find easily hundreds of thousands of dollars in timepieces across our wrists.

    You do recall this story?
    https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...ll=1#post97654
    where another player at the table was wearing a platinum Daytona and he noticed my watch and asked if mine was a platinum Rolex too? (Which yes, mine was the top of top line platinum 40mm Day Date.) We took off our watches and compared them in weight, and the pit boss got in on it too and asked if he could hold them, which we consented. Can you imagine how embarrassing it would have been if I had been wearing a fake? I'd never wear a fake watch. if I couldn't afford the real thing I'd wear no watch at all, or a cheap, but genuine watch. YOU'RE the one who mentioned that he owns a fake Rolex, not me. I'd never have something like that on my back.

    I WOULDN'T HAVE IT ON MY BACK. I'LL BE GODDAMNED IF I'LL WEAR IT.

    Like I said, if you think everything about me is "fake" then just stick to that story. This back and forth where you wake up one morning feeling black and feel compelled to post some nasty shit and other mornings when you wake up happy and post positive things is the stuff of the mentally ill like PokerGrinder and homeless DarkOz.


    Blackhole and Half Smoke: the best post I can think of about all this was at GF yesterday from redietz, and it follows in line with what many have said in this very thread - that WOV is full of wannabees who started bumping into each other like pigs in chute when they realized that the real thing had come along and exposed all their wannabee facades. Axel, if you are the real thing then you'll recognize the real thing. If not, you'll keep posting videos of clowns on YouTube and trying to compare them to me.
    I have been in touch with all my hosts and they are all at home, catching up on work around the house. I don't expect that any of them will be laid off though because each of them is very high up there as far as executive host level.

    According to this, just released Sunday, many Vegas casinos are looking to reopen as soon as April 17th:
    https://travelzork.com/vegas-news-march-29-2020/
    Included in this article are various notes about extensions on player card rewards.

    When they reopen, if the casinos ban all smoking, that would be great!

    But otherwise, the sort of thing described here as some international casinos reopen
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/casino....au-11585280952
    -no drink service (no drinking or eating at the tables at all), players must wear masks and have their temperatures checked upon entry and perhaps regularly, doesn't sound like so much fun. Players must also stay away from each other and the numbers allowed at each table are limited.

    However players having to stay away from each other wouldn't bother me - I generally prefer to play, especially Baccarat, alone.

    In general though what they describe in Macau sounds like a downer. I think you'd really have to be desperate to gamble to deal with all that. I'd pass.
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  18. #818
    Gotta get back to the market. Lot of opportunity to trade extra shares today we have some good elasticity on some stocks, and I haven't done a trade since last week.
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  19. #819
    The more MDawg writes the dumber he looks. He's now saying you need calculus to do gambling math. That is wrong and totally stupid.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  20. #820
    How would you know, bubblehead?



    Hey Mickey give me your address I'll mail you a cigar.

    I don't smoke ever I just started picking them up free from the cigarette girls last few trips just because I can.
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

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