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I'm not a close follower of MDawg but I looked it up and he began posting his adventures on WOV on Nov. 5, 2019.
I believe he's had somewhere around 12 trips to Vegas since then which he has documented.
I'm estimating that on each trip he played for about 8 hours in a game that can easily deal out 100 hands per hour.
Unless, I missed something which I cannot deny is very possible, since again, I'm not a close follower - he has had substantial winnings on every single trip.
Could someone who is very good with math help me out here?
Could someone estimate the probability of winning 12 times in a row each time playing about 800 hands in a negative expectancy game where the house edge is about 1.15% (considering only bets on the Banker and Player, not any bets on a tie)?
And what is the probability that a person could play about 9600 hands of this game, again, against a house edge of about 1.15% and end up a huge winner?
To figure this out I think it would have to be considering flat betting and he almost surely did not do flat betting.
But that shouldn't make much of a difference since betting progressions cannot change the effect of the house edge when a great number of hands are played.
Thanks for the effort if you decide to tackle this puzzle.
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