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Thread: The Adventures of MDawg (in progress)

  1. #81
    ...........................................



    I'm not a close follower of MDawg but I looked it up and he began posting his adventures on WOV on Nov. 5, 2019.
    I believe he's had somewhere around 12 trips to Vegas since then which he has documented.
    I'm estimating that on each trip he played for about 8 hours in a game that can easily deal out 100 hands per hour.
    Unless, I missed something which I cannot deny is very possible, since again, I'm not a close follower - he has had substantial winnings on every single trip.



    Could someone who is very good with math help me out here?
    Could someone estimate the probability of winning 12 times in a row each time playing about 800 hands in a negative expectancy game where the house edge is about 1.15% (considering only bets on the Banker and Player, not any bets on a tie)?
    And what is the probability that a person could play about 9600 hands of this game, again, against a house edge of about 1.15% and end up a huge winner?


    To figure this out I think it would have to be considering flat betting and he almost surely did not do flat betting.
    But that shouldn't make much of a difference since betting progressions cannot change the effect of the house edge when a great number of hands are played.



    Thanks for the effort if you decide to tackle this puzzle.
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 02-27-2020 at 10:48 AM.
    please don't feed the trolls

  2. #82
    I have had about ten Vegas trips since I got back into playing in 2018.

    On each trip have stayed at about three different resorts, sometimes hitting the same resort more than once during the same trip, such as during my MONTH LONG trip to Vegas in late Summer / early Fall 2019.

    However, if you view each "segment" of the trip - each stay at a different casino - as a separate trip, then that would be more like about thirty Vegas trips since 2018.
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  3. #83
    It's all pretty simple: WoV is quite different than over here. This guy came because EVERYBODY WINS HERE! No verification required/no proof ever needed. Just make up an anonymous handle, put together a somewhat detailed scenario of lots of losing but of course far more winning, throw up some photos that impresses oneself and therefore, all----and we have a showboat of a winner!

    For entertainment purposes only, naturally. However, what makes this fellow have the insatiable need to tell us of his greatness here? And with all the time he spends doing it, is this his life? My first question is....how fat is he?

  4. #84
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    And what is the probability that a person could play about 9600 hands of this game, again, against a house edge of about 1.15% and end up a huge winner?

    betting progressions cannot change the effect of the house edge when a great number of hands are played.
    Is 9600 hands considered a great number of hands? (assuming by "great" you meant "many")

    Would 9600 hands of VP be considered a great number of hands?

    Most analyses of VP that I can recall reading on these forums are based on a million or even millions of hands.

  5. #85
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    ...........................................



    I'm not a close follower of MDawg but I looked it up and he began posting his adventures on WOV on Nov. 5, 2019.
    I believe he's had somewhere around 12 trips to Vegas since then which he has documented.
    I'm estimating that on each trip he played for about 8 hours in a game that can easily deal out 100 hands per hour.
    Unless, I missed something which I cannot deny is very possible, since again, I'm not a close follower - he has had substantial winnings on every single trip.



    Could someone who is very good with math help me out here?
    Could someone estimate the probability of winning 12 times in a row each time playing about 800 hands in a negative expectancy game where the house edge is about 1.15% (considering only bets on the Banker and Player, not any bets on a tie)?
    And what is the probability that a person could play about 9600 hands of this game, again, against a house edge of about 1.15% and end up a huge winner?


    To figure this out I think it would have to be considering flat betting and he almost surely did not do flat betting.
    But that shouldn't make much of a difference since betting progressions cannot change the effect of the house edge when a great number of hands are played.



    Thanks for the effort if you decide to tackle this puzzle.
    I'm just the village idiot of the forum, but I will take a shot at this.
    So your probability of winning a hand then is 0.4885. Obviously you need to win at least 401 hands of the 800 hands to win that session (flat betting as you mentioned). The chance of this happening is 24.63% . Based on this result of 24.63% then, to win all 12 sessions would have a probability of 4.98383E-08 of occurring. Please see the screen shot below for the statistical details. If you define how many hands you would consider that a huge winner would have to win of the 9600 in order to be considered a huge winner, I will post this calculation (we may have different opinions on what constitutes a huge winner).

    Name:  12sessionbaccarat.jpg
Views: 3445
Size:  487.0 KB

  6. #86
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    your probability of winning a hand then is 0.4885. Obviously you need to win at least 401 hands of the 800 hands to win that session (flat betting as you mentioned). The chance of this happening is 24.63% .
    Is there any way to analyze this game considering that the player is not flat betting?

    MDawg can comment on whether or not my understanding of his strategy is correct, but my understanding is that MDawg is betting more on hands that he wins.

    It sounds like he's min-betting until he encounters a streak of consecutive banker or player wins, when he will press into the streak, and his average bet ends up higher on hands that he wins.

    Is that impossible?

  7. #87
    Thanks Tableplay. I don't really know what the E-08 at the end of your calculation means.
    You didn't use this symbol (%) so I'm thinking that the number you expressed is not a percentage.
    Please explain exactly what that means and what the percentage chance it is if it is not about 5% as I think it is not.
    Thanks
    please don't feed the trolls

  8. #88
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Thanks Tableplay. I don't really know what the E-08 at the end of your calculation means.
    You didn't use this symbol (%) so I'm thinking that the number you expressed is not a percentage.
    Please explain exactly what that means and what the percentage chance it is if it is not about 5% as I think it is not.
    Thanks
    Half Smoke, my apologies, I wrote the answer in haste. So 4.98383E-08 is scientific notation (this is a convenient notation for exceedingly small numbers) and is equivalent to the number 0.0000000498383. So, as a percentage then, the number of interest is 0.00000498383%.
    So there is a 0.00000498383% that 12 sessions would be won under the aforementioned conditions.
    Regards, TP.

  9. #89
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    your probability of winning a hand then is 0.4885. Obviously you need to win at least 401 hands of the 800 hands to win that session (flat betting as you mentioned). The chance of this happening is 24.63% .
    Is there any way to analyze this game considering that the player is not flat betting?

    MDawg can comment on whether or not my understanding of his strategy is correct, but my understanding is that MDawg is betting more on hands that he wins.

    It sounds like he's min-betting until he encounters a streak of consecutive banker or player wins, when he will press into the streak, and his average bet ends up higher on hands that he wins.

    Is that impossible?
    The game could be analyzed if each bet amount was known for the 800 hands Coach. But the fact that there is 1.15% house edge on each of the 800 bets can never be escaped, so that the expectation should remain the same. Now if someone is edgesorting Baccarat (like Ivey and his cohort did) or has engineered a counting system in the same vein as one does for Blackjack, then the game could be beaten. So the question is, is Baccarat a countable game ? If it is, I have never been exposed to the indices system for counting this game. Now I do know that the side bet on EZ Baccarat is countable, but that is not what we are talking about here.

  10. #90
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Thanks Tableplay. I don't really know what the E-08 at the end of your calculation means.
    You didn't use this symbol (%) so I'm thinking that the number you expressed is not a percentage.
    Please explain exactly what that means and what the percentage chance it is if it is not about 5% as I think it is not.
    Thanks
    Half Smoke, my apologies, I wrote the answer in haste. So 4.98383E-08 is scientific notation (this is a convenient notation for exceedingly small numbers) and is equivalent to the number 0.0000000498383. So, as a percentage then, the number of interest is 0.00000498383%.
    So there is a 0.00000498383% that 12 sessions would be won under the aforementioned conditions.
    Regards, TP.


    Thanks again. To put that in perspective I found a scientific calculator on the web and I calculated that a person playing 12 sessions of 800 hands can expect to win all 12 sessions about 1 in 20 million attempts
    Please take a look at the image below and verify its accuracy and the accuracy of my statement.


    Name:  D44XJpF.jpg
Views: 3409
Size:  14.0 KB
    please don't feed the trolls

  11. #91
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    The game could be analyzed if each bet amount was known for the 800 hands Coach. But the fact that there is 1.15% house edge on each of the 800 bets can never be escaped
    So you cannot calculate the probability of finishing ahead unless you know the amount bet on each hand. Is that correct?

    I understand that your calculations are for flat-betting 12 separate sessions of 800 hands each. Is the probability the same for 9600 hands total?

    Through 800 hands, the expected number of hands won & lost will be the same regardless of how much is bet. Is that correct?

    Considering a min bet of X = the amount bet on all losing hands, what should the average bet be on winning hands, such that the player can finish ahead after 800 hands?
    Last edited by coach belly; 02-27-2020 at 02:46 PM.

  12. #92
    But then, as on WoV, many of us don’t care. And since the bets are of a progression nature, anything is possible. Especially on bets that are very close to even money.

  13. #93
    Those calculations are inaccurate but in any case, as House of Orange points out, not relevant unless flat betting. The way I bet, pressing the bet sometimes and other times cutting back, anything might happen. I would agree and always have said that betting the same thing every hand you WILL lose, but if you vary your bet you MAY win. And that's the bottom line.

    Also consider how the other day I was down -23,000. after just a couple of shoes. Does anyone really think that my being down -23,000 in so few hands had anything to do with the house edge? Would the odds of my coming back from -23,000 to just slightly above even in four or five additional shoes with an average bet (according to the pit boss who tracked me) of 900. have changed much if the house edge had been zero? (keeping also in mind the minimum maximum of 300/20000 for the table and a 50,000 bank roll of which I ended up playing with 15,000 after 23,000 was gone, with a reserve of 12,000 that I did not but could have tapped into).

    Checked into the wrap around terrace suite - 1200 square feet.

    Upon arrival in the Foyer, everything looks poi-fect:











    But then, as we start to put our things away:

    The bathroom closet is not big enough for both of our hanging clothes:

    and there actually isn't any drawer storage for other clothes, so I end up putting some clothes into the bar cabinets:

    (This is common at all of the Cosmo suites - lack of drawers for clothing storage.)
    And because my clothes won't fit alongside hers, my hanging clothes end up in the hall closet:

    This building was originally to be a living complex of condominiums, later bought out to be used as a casino. All these shortcomings could just have to do with that whoever bought this unit originally as a condo never finished it, and it was left to the casino to slap it together, and they forgot some living necessities such as clothing drawers.

    I mean here we have a wine cooler:

    which is an upgraded amenity for any hotel suite, but no drawers for clothing anywhere near the bedroom?

    As well, there is no jacuzzi tub in this suite:

    and again perhaps the original purchaser of this particular condominium unit decided not to upgrade to a jacuzzi tub, which is why some of the suites here have jacuzzis, and some do not.

    There are some niceties for a hotel room, such as this hanging cabinet, which she puts to good use:


    The powder room is more than just a powder room, it is a 3/4 bathroom:
    Last edited by MDawg; 02-27-2020 at 08:02 PM.
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  14. #94
    and then of course...the view. The wrap around terrace view:



    all surrounding 1200 square feet of living space.

    Over all, very nice.
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  15. #95
    As planned, no play today. Staying in.

    For dinner we had

    that I brought up from the second floor.
    I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  16. #96
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Thanks Tableplay. I don't really know what the E-08 at the end of your calculation means.
    You didn't use this symbol (%) so I'm thinking that the number you expressed is not a percentage.
    Please explain exactly what that means and what the percentage chance it is if it is not about 5% as I think it is not.
    Thanks
    Half Smoke, my apologies, I wrote the answer in haste. So 4.98383E-08 is scientific notation (this is a convenient notation for exceedingly small numbers) and is equivalent to the number 0.0000000498383. So, as a percentage then, the number of interest is 0.00000498383%.
    So there is a 0.00000498383% that 12 sessions would be won under the aforementioned conditions.
    Regards, TP.


    Thanks again. To put that in perspective I found a scientific calculator on the web and I calculated that a person playing 12 sessions of 800 hands can expect to win all 12 sessions about 1 in 20 million attempts
    Please take a look at the image below and verify its accuracy and the accuracy of my statement.


    Name:  D44XJpF.jpg
Views: 3409
Size:  14.0 KB
    That seems about right Half Smoke - 20,064,890 (1/0.0000000498383) would be the "exact" figure.

  17. #97
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    The game could be analyzed if each bet amount was known for the 800 hands Coach. But the fact that there is 1.15% house edge on each of the 800 bets can never be escaped
    So you cannot calculate the probability of finishing ahead unless you know the amount bet on each hand. Is that correct?

    I understand that your calculations are for flat-betting 12 separate sessions of 800 hands each. Is the probability the same for 9600 hands total?

    Through 800 hands, the expected number of hands won & lost will be the same regardless of how much is bet. Is that correct?

    Considering a min bet of X = the amount bet on all losing hands, what should the average bet be on winning hands, such that the player can finish ahead after 800 hands?
    You do not need to know the amount bet on each hand in order to calculate the probability of finishing ahead. You would need to know only the probability of winning a hand (assumes the probability is uniform for winning any hand). This is because your larger and smaller bets have the same chance of falling on winning and losing hands as they would for flat betting assuming Baccarat is not a countable game (to my knowledge it isn't - but someone else may know for certain).


    The probability is not the same for 9600 total. For 9600 hands total the probability of winning more than half the hands is 0.011784169 (which for flat-betting would mean the probability of finishing ahead).

    Yes through 800 hands the expected number of hands won and lost will be the same - the bet does not influence the outcome of winning or losing the hand.


    The average bet on winning hands should be greater than $1.047 for each $1 bet on losing hands.
    Last edited by tableplay; 02-27-2020 at 10:06 PM.

  18. #98
    Originally Posted by MDawg View Post
    Those calculations are inaccurate but in any case, as House of Orange points out, not relevant unless flat betting.
    MDawg, thanks for posting the terrific pictures of your trips I enjoy viewing them. If you don't mind, please let me know where I made a mistake in my calculations as I am always looking to improve my statistical and mathematical skills. I haven't read anywhere about counting systems for Baccarat, so if you know of any good books or links to Baccarat indexing systems please feel free to post them as I would love to add to my portfolio of player edge casino games .

    Best, TP.
    Last edited by tableplay; 02-27-2020 at 10:15 PM.

  19. #99
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by MDawg View Post
    Those calculations are inaccurate but in any case, as House of Orange points out, not relevant unless flat betting.
    MDawg, thanks for posting the terrific pictures of your trips I enjoy viewing them. If you don't mind, please let me know where I made a mistake in my calculations as I am always looking to improve my statistical and mathematical skills. I haven't read anywhere about counting systems for Baccarat, so if you know of any good books or links to Baccarat indexing systems please feel free to post them as I would love to add to my portfolio of player edge casino games .

    Best, TP.
    Who gives a fuck about your calculations, statistics, mathematical skills, or your losing portfolio?

    It’s so obvious you’re just another envious alleged AP. Do you really think anyone reading this thread really care what you’re trying to figure out? All you’re trying to do is come up with some wrong idea of what MDawgs odds are of actually winning. (according to your gifted math abilities) Regardless of you not knowing the facts of every different bet size, which you keep denying and pushing to the side to help achieve your phony goal of just being able to say something like he has a better chance of getting struck by lightning a thousand times in one week then what he’s posting. It's like reading an Op-Ed written by Pelosi, edited by A. Shit.

    Fuck you, your math, phony interest in books that could spell out his lucky strategy, etc. etc. etc. You’re a complete fucking envious fool, that no doubt could never afford the luxury’s MDawg enjoys. Maybe if you spent more of your time on a real career you might be able to improve your sad fucking life.

    Shouldn’t you be spending more of your time with Shank and the rest of the phony alleged frauds.

    For me, it’s guys like you that are so envious and jealous of others who are successful and enjoying life; and if you had the chance would knock out guys like MDawg in a dark alley and rob everything he had on him. Including his watches.

    You’re a fucking WOV loser, and it reeks of shit when you post.

    Take a fucking walk and stay in your lane. You know, more like waiting for the opportunity to pound some progressive slot at the right time your math tells you to do, hoping it’s you that gets it, then waiting for mailers a month later so you could eat and maybe get a discount on a room.

    Fuck you asshole, and stop ruining the thread others finally enjoy reading on these stupid fucking forums which are endlessly loaded with such gifted smart assholes like you.

    MDawg could buy and sell your sad pathetic ass. Take it like a man and take a fucking walk.
    Last edited by blackhole; 02-28-2020 at 04:39 AM.

  20. #100
    ...................................


    Quote MDawg - 2/26/2020 - this thread - post #70:



    "Anyway, success! Leaving this casino, too, ahead!"





    Just out of curiosity - if you don't mind my asking-
    How many wins in a row is that for you now?
    If you consider each trip to be your stay at one casino. If you move to another casino we'll call that another trip.
    20,25,30,35?



    And I think over half of them are pretty big wins.
    Am I pretty much correct?
    please don't feed the trolls

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