I didn't play a million hands over 8 trips pal. And even if I had, the way you get at a 7% chance that someone may wind up ahead even after 1 million hands is that you have to still assume some chance of variance extending out over even that many hands, and that is the calculation that your flat line simple number crunching doesn't take into effect. Which is why I said that you set up the whole problem wrong in the first place.
And in any case, you still calculated the odds of coming out ahead after just 8 trips at twenty million to one, which is absurd. You never figured in any variance, because you have no idea what it is or means and couldn't begin to know how to input it into a simple linear number crunching, since variance isn't inputed into a simple linear number crunch. You just keep talking about 49.3% probability. Good night. Enjoy future MDawg adventures.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas
cancel
MD: I never said non AP's, ploppies, average Joe can't win, they certainly can. AAMOF I said it's not even mathematically unreasonable that you could have won. The totality of everything you have said and your entire persona adds up to bullshit.
Your system is a mathematical loser, unless in fact you actually have a mathematical advantage, but you're just not savvy enough to realize it. If not, assuming you're actually winning thus far, eventually you will lose if you're playing a -EV game.
I don't need to float lines of credit, I have cash and can put up front money.
Wow you really are the low of the low. I am not mentally ill you moron, I deal with depression which is VERY common. It’s just laughable that you think I posted what I did because of mental illness. I take antidepressants, I’m seeing a wonderful girl, I have a good income and great family and friends. I’m currently as happy as they come even though I’m bored from being stuck inside. I posted what I posted at WoV because I wanted to say it not cause my mental illness told me to dumbass. Btw nice try trying to get me nuked but that wasn’t going to work.
Also, MD in regards to you calling me 2 faced please show me evidence of that. You're grasping at straws by gloaming onto what was said by one person in which I have only had forum interactions with. The situation was unique and complicated. Let's just say things went down exactly how he believes it to have It would be borderline 2 facedness and not of a high significance in the grand scheme of things. Certainly not to any level that should have any real bearing on who I am over all as a person or how I conduct myself in general. If he feels strongly about it and truly believes that while thinking the worst, Ill accept it. Ill apologize to him and I'll be mindful and make double sure I don't do anything that would be considered 2 faced in the future. When Mickey said what he said it seemed to him I was being 2 faced and attacking him, if it had been him I was quoting he would have had good reason to think that. HOWEVER, It was a mistake as I was addressing and quoted someone else.
I noticed you have resorted to getting personal i.e. the Captain Morgan thing, calling 2 faced There was the fact you were spreading lies about me living in the Northtown ghetto but since that's a complete lie and known to be one by many people on the forums no need to go further, it just goes to show you don't care about the truth.
The Captain Morgan thing doesn't bother me in the slightest. I have been more than open with the fact that I liked to party with way too many drinks at times. Most everyone knows this. I have Partied hard with lots of members from the forums. I'm a social drinker who can over do it. I never drank at home, I don't beat my wife(no kids), I don't make crazy drunk posts, I don't have to have it. I went more than a year without as of February , I went to a party over a month ago where I drank a good amount and haven't wanted to drink since then.
If the Captain Morgan and the 2 faced thing is all you got....God blessed me.
Last edited by AxelWolf; 03-31-2020 at 02:17 AM.
MDawg is the Inspector Clouseau of gambling math.
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
This is the expert button pusher Mickeycrimm in action. I know he claims to be sober the last couple years, but what about before that during his prime making all that coin?
This is the guy lecturing, threatening, and cursing out everyone.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/Zk2WAFzDcrJ7pjNB7
Take comfort in the fact that no one is actually backing up his wishes to have you permanantly banned.
Smart is knowing a Tomato is a fruit.
Wise is knowing a Tomato doesn't belong in a fruit salad.
I am glad to get my full posting rights back! Thank you Dan!
........................................
Dawg: you've been booted off of WOV again.......................poor little you....................so unfair.
And you're taking an awful lot of heat here. That's a real shame. It can't be much fun.
I am just posting to reassure you.
You will never have any kind of problem at gamblingforums.com.
You're going to feel real comfy over there with all the other big systems winners there.
They're going to eat your stuff up.
You'll always have a home there.
Enjoy.
please don't feed the trolls
PokerGrinder, anyone who would post something like what you posted, if you are saying it did not come from the darkness of mental illness, is trash.
Yes half smoke, you don't have to tell me that I was booted off WOV I know, and yes it is being discussed to death at GF, and at WOV itself.
The kind of bozos you have at WOV are like the weirdo sock puppet who came out of nowhere a week ago, who now claims with a post he made today that "at least four properties" are currently looking into how MDawg was overcomped. Right, so while their doors are boarded shut with plywood and no one is at work and thousands in the casino industry are being laid off, in the midst of ALL THAT they are trying to figure out who this high roller is on some internet forum and whether or not he received too many comps. As one of you have said, "You can't make this stuff up."
Last edited by MDawg; 03-31-2020 at 07:21 AM.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas
We're green in the market again today! Started off with some hesitancy, but looking good right now.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
So let's go the variance route then for 1 million hands played:
1. The mean # of hands won (as Player) at Baccarat is 0.493*1,000,000 or 493,000 hands won since the player will win 49.3% of his hands on average.
2. The standard deviation of playing 1,000,000 hands is sqrt(n*p*q) where p = 0.493 and q = 1-.493 and n=1,000,000. This equates to 499.95 hands.
3. To get to a break-even point of 500000, you would have to be (500,000-493,000)/499.5 standard deviations away from the mean on the positive side which equates to 1,000.1 standard deviations. Note that 3 standard deviations is considered quite unusual - I'm not sure what adjective could be used for observing a 1000 standard deviation event.
4. If you don't flat bet, then you'd better get your guessing right, like Mickey says, because you are playing a million hands of guesswork. Not to mention that if you have a sequence of N bets that are not flat, the sequence can broken up into N different flat bets. So if you a sequence like 5,10,5000 as your sequence of bets, you can think of it as making a bet of 5 (.493 chance of winning). Then going back the hotel to bang your wife, and then, since you are a high roller, the dealer was waiting for you to come back, after you finished with your wife, to deal the 2nd hand of the shoe, so that you could make your 10 dollar bet. Well then you are horny again and go back to the room for more. Again the dealer waits, and then you make your 5000 bet when he deals the 3rd hand from the shoe. Like, the other two bets, there is a 49.3% chance of winning the bet. The chance is not greater than it was for the other two bets. Good luck with your guesses.
I have been in touch with all my hosts and they are all at home, catching up on work around the house. I don't expect that any of them will be laid off though because each of them is very high up there as far as executive host level.
According to this, just released Sunday, many Vegas casinos are looking to reopen as soon as April 17th:
https://travelzork.com/vegas-news-march-29-2020/
Included in this article are various notes about extensions on player card rewards.
When they reopen, if the casinos ban all smoking, that would be great!
But otherwise, the sort of thing described here as some international casinos reopen
https://www.wsj.com/articles/casino....au-11585280952
-no drink service (no drinking or eating at the tables at all), players must wear masks and have their temperatures checked upon entry and perhaps regularly, doesn't sound like so much fun. Players must also stay away from each other and the numbers allowed at each table are limited.
However players having to stay away from each other wouldn't bother me - I generally prefer to play, especially Baccarat, alone.
In general though what they describe in Macau sounds like a downer. I think you'd really have to be desperate to gamble to deal with all that. I'd pass.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas
Gotta get back to the market. Lot of opportunity to trade extra shares today we have some good elasticity on some stocks, and I haven't done a trade since last week.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas
The more MDawg writes the dumber he looks. He's now saying you need calculus to do gambling math. That is wrong and totally stupid.
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
How would you know, bubblehead?
Hey Mickey give me your address I'll mail you a cigar.
I don't smoke ever I just started picking them up free from the cigarette girls last few trips just because I can.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas
There are currently 324 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 324 guests)