The Adventures of MDawg (in progress)

[MDawg]

When a friend and I were discussing yesterday when we might consider going back to the casinos, which we agreed won't be anytime soon, he said, "You don't really need it anyway you're getting your fix from this trading every day."

I had to pause, but when you think about it, he's right.

[MDawg]

Just did another one TSLA
765 to 767

That was the prior low so it seemed like it would work. It did.

At some point it will rocket off the low and then the buying on dips will stop working - because there won't be any more dips (below prior lows). But that's the idea anyway - to buy based on an anticipated rise.

[MDawg]

Luck was on my side going into the AH with no extra shares of AMZN. As far as my long term AMZN, meh, it's simply back to where it was yesterday.

I have been trading extra shares of it quite well in the AH though. It's all over the place! A trader's dream!

[BaccMaster]

Luck was on my side going into the AH with no extra shares of AMZN. As far as my long term AMZN, meh, it's simply back to where it was yesterday.

I have been trading extra shares of it quite well in the AH though. It's all over the place! A trader's dream!

The market goes up , the mdawg wins. The market goes down , the mdawg wins.

Congrats on 2 years of never losing on a trade. This puts you in a stratosphere way above even the greatest professional traders out there.

[MDawg]

I was trying to find something in the gahhrahjj, put in a take it or leave it at 2331. By the time it filled and I got back to my iPhone it had filled and it was already at 2350s or so. This time, I decided not to mess around. Seriously, I should have held this particular trade until tomorrow when it'll probably go back over 2400, but in another take it or leave it I set it to sell at 2371. That's 40 pts! while cleaning out the gahhrahjj. How can you turn that down?

But now it's at 2883. You make a KILLING and still someone else picks it up, to make even more....

Liquidity is high. Trades of 1000 sh are filling in just three to five pieces, almost like the regular market.

Still, this is like....
https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/d39ed3a...7-04784a0664cc

[MDawg]

This is pretty crazy. A trader's dream right now, but I should probably stop. You make money hand over fist and then you get stuck in the last trade...greed is not always good.

AMZN has been between the low 2400s and low 2300s back and forth something like four times so far in the AH. How could you lose? as long as you kept your nerve.

[MDawg]

Okay it faded back to about 2350. I feel better now about selling those extra sh @ 2371.

Typically, as we get closer to 5pm PST the trades slow down and the price stabilizes, and liquidity is reduced to where trying to get a good 1000 share fill becomes harder.

[MDawg]

I'm tempted to pick up just a small amount of extra TSLA at 763 in the AH.

[The Boz]

Luck was on my side going into the AH with no extra shares of AMZN. As far as my long term AMZN, meh, it's simply back to where it was yesterday.

I have been trading extra shares of it quite well in the AH though. It's all over the place! A trader's dream!

The market goes up , the mdawg wins. The market goes down , the mdawg wins.

Congrats on 2 years of never losing on a trade. This puts you in a stratosphere way above even the greatest professional traders out there.

Welcome back! We missed you over here....and at WoV.

[MDawg]

I didn't pick up any TSLA at 763 last night. I put in the order I think it was at 758 and it never filled.

Anyway today I had a few good trades.
TSLA 747 to 752
TSLA 743 to 745
AMZN 2316 to 2318
Then I noticed that on that particular trade, it went all the way to something like 2350.

So the next time, I got it at 2311, and I got a little greedy and put it in at 2321. Normally, I would have done 2316 but I wanted the whole ten grand enchilada, so I put in 2321. Well THAT didn't work...it did hit as high as 2318, and then the bottom dropped out and it went to something like 2304. Then it did come back to about 2313, but I didn't sell, and next thing you knew it was below 2300.

So then I cost averaged in at 2294, and got the hell out for the combined 2000 sh @ 2203. Made a grand. And now it's 2309.

That's how they get you!

Now's it's 2311. Watch it go to 2321.

Anyway, a profit is a profit.

I think you guys get the idea. I won't be posting as minutely on trades for a while I think.

Good luck!

[MDawg]

there are NO card counters making 500k a year.

Almost any way you slice it, from a grinder getting in 20-25 hours at just under $500max bet, to playing double that stakes but less hours, to attempting to play that high stakes slash and burn from 20 years ago and getting 2-3 months in, it all adds up to just about the same 75k to 100k on a good year. That really is the ceiling for a fulltime card counter. You can focus on finding and playing the best games with deep penetration, exiting negative counts aggressively (as I do), and maybe if you are lucky exiting right into a better game or opportunity, but none of these things including higher counts () is going to change much. 75k to 100k is the ceiling if you are trying to achieve any kind of longevity. Otherwise slash and burn for a very short 3 or 4 months and then run bootcamps and seminars.

Before I answer this, I did forget to mention the travel expenses associated with all the travel that most professional BJ players do. With all the flying and driving, and meal on the road, even if you some how get rooms and meals comped which is going to dramatically shorten longevity, just living on the road, and purchasing everything you need and run out of, all these expenses are going to dramatically cut into profits. Somebody not playing high limits like Zeebabar (from another forum), it can eat 1/3 of your profits. Even at high stakes it eats into them significantly.

With card counting at least the number of hours of research are minimal – just go to any casino with 3:2 and a low house edge to begin with, and count, and hope that you win before the variance gets you and before they give you the boot in any case, win or lose.
But still, I have been saying this all along – that when you figure all the time and travel, room and board expenses because you’re playing under the radar and not getting comp’ed, you’re barely getting by.
And this is card counting, which is much higher end than these slot cheats pushing buttons for a living. BJ card counting is, if you want to use the criminal hierarchy, on the level of drug dealing versus pimping. Pimping is low class in the same way that playing advantage slots for a living is low class. And with the slot cheats they have to spend massive amounts of TIME researching, in ADDITION to all the time, travel, and living expenses, such that they are barely making minimum wage.

As J points out, these “advantage” plays are all grinds. And they’re not really making that much per hour, especially when expenses are figured in. All the time sweaty palmed and hiding out from casino security. Big chiropractic bills from always craning their necks looking over their shoulders eat up what little they have left after other expenses.

With my play, they are PAYING me to win – I’m staying in average thousand dollar a night suites, fully RFB (room food beverage) comped, and even getting occasional gifts from the casino, AND winning. If you figure that 2019 was the first full year that I played since coming back after that long break, and that the casinos have me down on their win losses for winning 115,025. that year, which I believe I won more than that but that is what they have me down for, and I believe we ended up staying somewhere in the area of about three full months in Vegas that year, that’s a win of over a hundred grand plus about a hundred grand in comps. This is stratospherically above the level of grinding.

[Bob21]

there are NO card counters making 500k a year.

Almost any way you slice it, from a grinder getting in 20-25 hours at just under $500max bet, to playing double that stakes but less hours, to attempting to play that high stakes slash and burn from 20 years ago and getting 2-3 months in, it all adds up to just about the same 75k to 100k on a good year. That really is the ceiling for a fulltime card counter. You can focus on finding and playing the best games with deep penetration, exiting negative counts aggressively (as I do), and maybe if you are lucky exiting right into a better game or opportunity, but none of these things including higher counts () is going to change much. 75k to 100k is the ceiling if you are trying to achieve any kind of longevity. Otherwise slash and burn for a very short 3 or 4 months and then run bootcamps and seminars.

Before I answer this, I did forget to mention the travel expenses associated with all the travel that most professional BJ players do. With all the flying and driving, and meal on the road, even if you some how get rooms and meals comped which is going to dramatically shorten longevity, just living on the road, and purchasing everything you need and run out of, all these expenses are going to dramatically cut into profits. Somebody not playing high limits like Zeebabar (from another forum), it can eat 1/3 of your profits. Even at high stakes it eats into them significantly.

With card counting at least the number of hours of research are minimal – just go to any casino with 3:2 and a low house edge to begin with, and count, and hope that you win before the variance gets you and before they give you the boot in any case, win or lose.
But still, I have been saying this all along – that when you figure all the time and travel, room and board expenses because you’re playing under the radar and not getting comp’ed, you’re barely getting by.
And this is card counting, which is much higher end than these slot cheats pushing buttons for a living. BJ card counting is, if you want to use the criminal hierarchy, on the level of drug dealing versus pimping. Pimping is low class in the same way that playing advantage slots for a living is low class. And with the slot cheats they have to spend massive amounts of TIME researching, in ADDITION to all the time, travel, and living expenses, such that they are barely making minimum wage.

As J points out, these “advantage” plays are all grinds. And they’re not really making that much per hour, especially when expenses are figured in. All the time sweaty palmed and hiding out from casino security. Big chiropractic bills from always craning their necks looking over their shoulders eat up what little they have left after other expenses.

With my play, they are PAYING me to win – I’m staying in average thousand dollar a night suites, fully RFB (room food beverage) comped, and even getting occasional gifts from the casino, AND winning. If you figure that 2019 was the first full year that I played since coming back after that long break, and that the casinos have me down on their win losses for winning 115,025. that year, which I believe I won more than that but that is what they have me down for, and I believe we ended up staying somewhere in the area of about three full months in Vegas that year, that’s a win of over a hundred grand plus about a hundred grand in comps. This is stratospherically above the level of grinding.

MDawg, your analysis of card counters is spot on. What I’ve noticed doing this recreationally for about 10 years is there are two basic types. The young kid types (meaning from 20 up to 40 yrs old) who want to get rich quick without doing much. These are the ones who’ve watched some move like 21 or read about the MIT team making millions, or the naive members who are on blackjack apprenticeship, where everybody thinks they’re going to become millionaires counting cards in their spare time.

The second type I’ve met are older people who are more in my category. They are doing it for fun as a hobby. I’ve met a religion professor who’s written serveal books. When I looked him up on Amazon, sure enough I found his books. I’ve met a retired history professor from Hawaii. This group disguises their play better, but their bets still go with the count.

It’s pretty easy spotting counters. I can usually do it in under 10 mins. For the young kids, it takes me about a minute and a half. I usually know if they are a counter as they are getting their chips. It’s just the way they act. No matter how they want to disguise it with their act, it’s pretty easy to figure them out. I’m always surprised casinos don’t catch on sooner. Most are real obvious with how they always start out every shoe at minimum bet.

Anyway, for the most part I agree with you on counters. There is no way anybody is making big money counting, no matter how much these young kids want to go on GWAE and brag about making millions. And I’ve known a couple small time slot hustlers. I agree that’s a hard way to make money too. I haven’t got into that yet, but I’m looking into, just for the free play stuff and help me not look so much like a counter.

My only question is how do you win? I get your stock strategy, but I’m still trying to figure out your gambling strategy. Yeah, it’d be good to get all that free stuff, but casinos usually don’t roll out the royal carpet for APs. Your strategy has got to be more than some betting strategy. Is there anything you can share?

[MDawg]

Bob, I know what you want to hear, but for now I'm just going to expand on the card counting topic.

When I play BJ, which is still sometimes these days, I do count and I do employ all the same strategies and schemes I have mentioned in my Adventures thread more than once, at least - all of these techniques that are still available (at least one - knowing what card is face down for the dealer on certain hands - is no longer in play as far as I know). But there are a couple of differences between the way I play BJ and the way these card counters I mention and J mentions do it: they're all grinding.

These days, probably my BJ play is closer to a grind than I would like, but that is because of my past experience where I got banned from playing BJ for a couple years due to winning too much at it. So, I take it easier and spread my BJ bets less than the table min to table max spread that I was utilizing back then. I don't want to get banned due to BJ winning, and I win consistently with Baccarat which they consider a game of chance so they leave me alone even if I win consistently.

Back then, I'd have sessions days on end where I would pretty much bet nothing but either table min or table max at BJ, and I was nailing them so consistently with the table max bets that I suppose they felt that they had no choice but to handicap me to a 3X spread, which was my "ban" - a ban that lasted a couple of years. In other words, even when playing BJ my goal is to clock them for large amounts, not to sit there trying to grind out a percent advantage that might get eaten up with variance anyway. Obviously nothing, advantage percentage wise, necessarily justifies a jump to table max in BJ, but I always felt that the combination of a positive count plus the other things I was looking for and was able to take advantage of, did justify a jump to table max, and for whatever reason, I won these table max BJ bets very consistently, sometimes, for days on end, every single time.

[mickeycrimm]

Bob, I know what you want to hear, but for now I'm just going to expand on the card counting topic.

When I play BJ, which is still sometimes these days, I do count and I do employ all the same strategies and schemes I have mentioned in my Adventures thread more than once, at least - all of these techniques that are still available (at least one - knowing what card is face down for the dealer on certain hands - is no longer in play as far as I know). But there are a couple of differences between the way I play BJ and the way these card counters I mention and J mentions do it: they're all grinding.

These days, probably my BJ play is closer to a grind than I would like, but that is because of my past experience where I got banned from playing BJ for a couple years due to winning too much at it. So, I take it easier and spread my BJ bets less than the table min to table max spread that I was utilizing back then. I don't want to get banned due to BJ winning, and I win consistently with Baccarat which they consider a game of chance so they leave me alone even if I win consistently.

Back then, I'd have sessions days on end where I would pretty much bet nothing but either table min or table max at BJ, and I was nailing them so consistently with the table max bets that I suppose they felt that they had no choice but to handicap me to a 3X spread, which was my "ban" - a ban that lasted a couple of years. In other words, even when playing BJ my goal is to clock them for large amounts, not to sit there trying to grind out a percent advantage that might get eaten up with variance anyway. Obviously nothing, advantage percentage wise, necessarily justifies a jump to table max in BJ, but I always felt that the combination of a positive count plus the other things I was looking for and was able to take advantage of, did justify a jump to table max, and for whatever reason, I won these table max BJ bets very consistently, sometimes, for days on end, every single time.

You didn't get banned for winning to much. You got banned for not disguising your play enough. I like your "no answer" on telling Bob21 how to beat baccarat. You can't tell him how because you don't really have a working strategy. If you won last year it was outhouse luck. So why don't you tell Bob21 the truth, that you have to get lucky to beat baccarat.

And your thread is not getting much action here anymore.

[MDawg]

Had picked up some extra AMZN at 2275 Friday in the AH. Was not looking good this morning, but I resisted the temptation to add more shares. In any case, all good now, we're above 2300, and TSLA and NFLX up too.

[BaccMaster]

Had picked up some extra AMZN at 2275 Friday in the AH. Was not looking good this morning, but I resisted the temptation to add more shares. In any case, all good now, we're above 2300, and TSLA and NFLX up too.

And if AMZN hadn’t gone back up, you never would’ve posted that you bought those shares.

[Ozzy]

Had picked up some extra AMZN at 2275 Friday in the AH. Was not looking good this morning, but I resisted the temptation to add more shares. In any case, all good now, we're above 2300, and TSLA and NFLX up too.

And if AMZN hadn’t gone back up, you never would’ve posted that you bought those shares.

Not possible, TOP DAWG NEVER LOSES.

[BaccMaster]

Had picked up some extra AMZN at 2275 Friday in the AH. Was not looking good this morning, but I resisted the temptation to add more shares. In any case, all good now, we're above 2300, and TSLA and NFLX up too.

And if AMZN hadn’t gone back up, you never would’ve posted that you bought those shares.

Not possible, TOP DAWG NEVER LOSES.

After the market closes we’ll hear about 19 more trades that were all (obviously) winners , but damned if he’d just held on longer he would’ve made even more LOL.

[The Boz]

And if AMZN hadn’t gone back up, you never would’ve posted that you bought those shares.

Not possible, TOP DAWG NEVER LOSES.

After the market closes we’ll hear about 19 more trades that were all (obviously) winners , but damned if he’d just held on longer he would’ve made even more LOL.

We definitely know you are fiction writer so maybe you should give him some guidance on how to write and make people believe him. Oh wait, no one believes your stories either. But the homeless stuff was some good fiction, along with the “Feared” stuff.

Forum fiction Gold, pure gold.

[AxelWolf]

Not possible, TOP DAWG NEVER LOSES.

After the market closes we’ll hear about 19 more trades that were all (obviously) winners , but damned if he’d just held on longer he would’ve made even more LOL.

We definitely know you are fiction writer so maybe you should give him some guidance on how to write and make people believe him. Oh wait, no one believes your stories either. But the homeless stuff was some good fiction, along with the “Feared” stuff.

Forum fiction Gold, pure gold.

You think? that idea has been floated around, I'm not convinced. Just doesn't seem like his MO. He seems like the type of person that wants to take credit for anything he says. You know what I mean? Also, I would find it unlikely that the person you speak of wouldn't have logged on or made a post on WOV if they suddenly had the time to post on here. What do you think about that? Speaking of that, from what I've noticed DarkOz hasn't been posting in quite some time. Certainly this whole covid-19 must have taken a big hit on his profits, hopefully he had enough saved up and not all invested in the casino's waiting for that free play to roll in.

This covid-19 will certainly weed out the weak. Perhaps many of the guys who didn't have a role saved up will have to get a job before they can get back in action leaving it ripe for the picking.