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Thread: The Adventures of MDawg (in progress)

  1. #201
    When I used to jump my bet all the way to table max, and for whatever reason it always worked for me (which is what led to the ban), I mean seriously I wasn't losing a single table max bet, was that I would BOTH look for a positive (true) count and I would wait until I had both a great count in my favor AND a sequence when say 11 cards or so had just passed without a single face card / ten or ace, AND I was sitting on first base. This would be playing at a table with say three players on it. I'd feel then that a "million tens" were coming and I had a good chance of catching one on first base as the first card out, with a good chance of catching another one too, or even an ace.

    What was weird is that sometimes when I did this I'd catch an eleven in which case I'd double down immediately of course, and then invariably catch that ten. Weird in that - where did the little cards adding to eleven even come from? given the count and flow?

    I can't tell you how upset the house would get when I kept doubling down at table max and winning. The dealers loved it, but some of the pit bosses were aghast. I recall one time I stepped in to Harrah's Tahoe and clocked them for fifty grand just like that, at a ten thousand dollar max table, with as I recall at least one of the hands being double down with $10K. As soon as I was up fifty I just left, and it took so little time too.

    As far as what is probably happening to ZenKing when he keeps losing, is that he ends up with a hard twelve through sixteen or some such with a million tens coming, the dealer gets the ten on top, and ZenKing busts, or he stands pat with a crappy hand since he reasons that the count is too positive, and loses to a twenty. Yes when the count is in your favor you are the one who is supposed to get the good cards, but sometimes it is the dealer who gets them. That counting edge doesn't assure a victory. But for me, the combination of a great count in my favor plus having just seen no paint no tens no aces in an entire deal makes me feel pretty confident. This watching for a sequence with no tens no faces no aces on top of a great count is what I call watching "the flow of the cards."

    Still, the fact of the matter is, if you are getting twelves and thirteens all night doesn't matter what the count is, you will lose, and this may be what is happening a lot to the unlucky Mr. ZenKing.
    Last edited by MDawg; 03-01-2020 at 12:31 PM.
    I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  2. #202
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    He is the one that convinced me that picking up the count at ANY point had value.

    yeah, I remember him writing that too, but I don't really get it.

    let's say 6 decks. the dealer cuts off 2. then you come by and start counting after 2 decks have been played.
    so now, there are double the no. of unseen, uncounted cards

    it's basically the same as if you started the shoe and the dealer cut 4 of the 6 decks out of play
    nobody who knows what they were doing would play in such a game (and the house would never offer it because it would cut the hands per hour by so much, but that's besides the point)

    so, I totally don't get it
    unless he was only referring to double deck games - but I don't remember him writing that - but if that's what he meant then that would make sense - otherwise not, to me anyway
    First, I can think of a couple casinos that cut maybe not 4 decks but better than 3 from a 6 deck shoe. I'll name one...Longhorn on Boulder Highway. Tuscany is pretty close to 3 decks cut. and while South point is usually about 2 decks cut (67-70% penetration), I have seen them cutting 3 decks when they get rattled (after a visit from a team of counters). None of these are the 4 decks cut that you mentioned, but none of these examples makes any sense for the casino either. What is that old saying....cutting off your nose to spite your face?

    So anyway, like you said, every game has unseen cards. I personally won't play anything less than 75% penetration unless there is something special drawing me to that game. But at 75% pen, I count through the shoe, get a good high count, there is no guarantee those high cards will even come into play. I mean at 75%, there is 78 cards not in play.

    So, lets say I walk by a game that has 2 decks already played. As you correctly said, that adds to unseen cards, basically making that a game that has 3.5 decks cut instead of 1.5 that I usually seek. I would never consider playing that game off the top (after the shuffle at start of play) and the reason is that to get a significant high TC that turns the game to +EV, (let alone max bet TC, which is what we are really after), becomes much less likely. Most likely you are just going to play through a bunch of negative/neutral at best counts with such shallow penetration.

    BUT, the difference is, that we are not playing this game off the top, starting with a zero count. If I walk by and see a bunch of small cards on the felt, resulting in a running count of lets say +8, +9, that is already a TC of +1.5. The game is already +EV, even with that increase in unseen cards. It's already +EV and the chances that it gets to a much stronger count are greatly improved, because we are not starting at 0. We have already cleared the first hurdle. We are already to +EV. So yeah, that game is worth jumping in and playing and especially if there is only one or two players.

    So yeah you are right, I would never consider playing a 50%-ish penetration game, but you start me off with a significant plus count that changes everything.

    As a primary style of play, I don't think much of a pure wong-in. A player will spend all his time searching and back-counting and get very little actual play. And when he does jump in after standing and back-counting, it's a pretty easy read for anyone watching. But as another tool in the toolbox, just happen to be walking by a table and pickup a count instantaneously that creates a playable opportunity....that is what it is for me.

  3. #203
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    It's already +EV and the chances that it gets to a much stronger count are greatly improved, because we are not starting at 0.


    I believe you are mistaken. the chance that it gets to a much stronger count are not greatly improved. the chances are actually reduced

    because the count is up that means there are more high cards left to play

    so, it is more likely now that high cards will come out

    and that will not make the count stronger - it will make it weaker
    please don't feed the trolls

  4. #204
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    It's already +EV and the chances that it gets to a much stronger count are greatly improved, because we are not starting at 0.


    I believe you are mistaken. the chance that it gets to a much stronger count are not greatly improved. the chances are actually reduced

    because the count is up that means there are more high cards left to play

    so, it is more likely now that high cards will come out

    and that will not make the count stronger - it will make it weaker
    You misunderstood the quote. Or maybe I wasn't clear.

    I was not saying or intending to say that the chances that the count goes further positive (and gets to the promise land of Max bet territory) is greater than it not going further positive. You are right that the better odds are that it will drift back towards Zero.

    What I was trying to say was that IF you are already at a TC of +1.5-ish, the chances are better than starting at a true count of 0. You are already partway there. And even if the count rises no further, you are already in +EV territory. As a player who plays off the top, do you know how many shoes I play that never get to +EV territory? Give me a starting point that is plus EV and I'll take it and see where things go.

  5. #205
    .......................



    KJ:


    yeah, I got it. I'm not trying to nitpick you. I realized after I posted that that is what you meant to say.


    what a funny game it is when you count:


    i.e.: the TC is at 2 - you have only a tiny advantage - you hope it goes up more

    you begin to be bet up several hands as it goes to 2.5, then 3, then maybe 4, then 4.5, then 5, then 6

    so, now it's at 6 and you have a nice edge - it's Max time

    but the thing is, all the time you bet up from 2 to 6, all those hands, you were betting up when you actually had a disadvantage (that you couldn't actually know about) because more low cards came out

    hilarious
    please don't feed the trolls

  6. #206
    Originally Posted by MDawg View Post
    When I used to jump my bet all the way to table max, and for whatever reason it always worked for me (which is what led to the ban), I mean seriously I wasn't losing a single table max bet, was that I would BOTH look for a positive (true) count and I would wait until I had both a great count in my favor AND a sequence when say 11 cards or so had just passed without a single face card / ten or ace, AND I was sitting on first base. This would be playing at a table with say three players on it. I'd feel then that a "million tens" were coming and I had a good chance of catching one on first base as the first card out, with a good chance of catching another one too, or even an ace.

    What was weird is that sometimes when I did this I'd catch an eleven in which case I'd double down immediately of course, and then invariably catch that ten. Weird in that - where did the little cards adding to eleven even come from? given the count and flow?

    I can't tell you how upset the house would get when I kept doubling down at table max and winning. The dealers loved it, but some of the pit bosses were aghast. I recall one time I stepped in to Harrah's Tahoe and clocked them for fifty grand just like that, at a ten thousand dollar max table, with as I recall at least one of the hands being double down with $10K. As soon as I was up fifty I just left, and it took so little time too.

    As far as what is probably happening to ZenKing when he keeps losing, is that he ends up with a hard twelve through sixteen or some such with a million tens coming, the dealer gets the ten on top, and ZenKing busts, or he stands pat with a crappy hand since he reasons that the count is too positive, and loses to a twenty. Yes when the count is in your favor you are the one who is supposed to get the good cards, but sometimes it is the dealer who gets them. That counting edge doesn't assure a victory. But for me, the combination of a great count in my favor plus having just seen no paint no tens no aces in an entire deal makes me feel pretty confident. This watching for a sequence with no tens no faces no aces on top of a great count is what I call watching "the flow of the cards."

    Still, the fact of the matter is, if you are getting twelves and thirteens all night doesn't matter what the count is, you will lose, and this may be what is happening a lot to the unlucky Mr. ZenKing.
    In the good counts the odds of the dealer and player catching the good cards are the same. The difference is the player gets paid 3:2 blackjack where the dealer gets only even money.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 03-01-2020 at 02:31 PM.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  7. #207
    Hey, brokeassblackhole. If I pretend I'm jealous of MDawg will it make you feel better? Okay. That damn MDawg! I'm so jealous. There do you feel better, brokeassblackhole. Did that put your vagina back in whack?
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  8. #208
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    In the good counts the odds of the dealer and player catching the good cards are the same. The difference is the player gets paid 3:2 blackjack where the dealer gets only even money.



    yes, and there are 2 other major reasons the player will have an edge and one minor reason

    the player is more likely to catch a winning 10 or Ace or 9 on his double downs

    and the player is not required to hit when he has hard 12, 13, 14, 15 or 16 but the dealer is - since there are more high cards than low cards left he will bust more often than when there aren't more high cards left

    and the minor reason is that the player is better off on his splits for various reasons but not by a great amount
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 03-01-2020 at 02:49 PM.
    please don't feed the trolls

  9. #209
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    If I pretend I'm jealous


    my main regret in life is that I didn't get more really good pussy when I was of getting a lot of pussy age

    if I had been rich I probably would have gotten a lot of real good pussy

    all the other stuff - cars, mansions, jewelry I don't give an eff about
    please don't feed the trolls

  10. #210
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    If I pretend I'm jealous


    my main regret in life is that I didn't get more really good pussy when I was of getting a lot of pussy age
    From 6th grade until sometimes in the 2000s that's just about the only thing I cared about. Considering the fact that I wasn't born with stunning good looks, height, great muscle tone, I did excellent in that department. Most of it came before I had any money, but it was fairly hard to hold on to a good looking chick with no car, no money while living in crappy area. Thinking back, the more successful I became the the easier it became and you didn't have to try as hard. How about we take a bus to McDonald's doesn't normally wetten pussies.

  11. #211
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    In the good counts the odds of the dealer and player catching the good cards are the same. The difference is the player gets paid 3:2 blackjack where the dealer gets only even money.



    yes, and there are 2 other major reasons the player will have an edge and one minor reason

    the player is more likely to catch a winning 10 or Ace or 9 on his double downs

    and the player is not required to hit when he has hard 12, 13, 14, 15 or 16 but the dealer is - since there are more high cards than low cards left he will bust more often than when there aren't more high cards left

    and the minor reason is that the player is better off on his splits for various reasons but not by a great amount
    There are a lot of us nominal players (myself included) that had a problem understanding that the player had an advantage on a favorable count when both the player and dealer can receive the same two cards. As you both have explained, 3:2 blackjack and splitting, and/or doubling in this favorable count adds to the advantage over the dealer. Thank you for helping those of us who still want to learn.

  12. #212
    I know what the HOUSE advantage / WHY the house has a BJ advantage is but no one above has articulated it. Makes you wonder.


    Won nothing / lost nothing today.

    I pulled an 8 lost it, pulled a ten lost some of it, then rallied back fairly quickly to around minus 8, then playing just 500 or so a hand I won it all back on a couple of great shoes.

    I ended up pretty much even (ahead a few hundred most of which I tipped out). When I come back from a large enough negative to even I am very good at stopping.

    Today therefore was an even day.

    So the story of the scene remains about thirty ahead!

    I extended us to Wednesday. Hey, at least I earned some comps today. Pit boss said she had me at average 1800. This is because I did play some bigger hands all the way to 4500 with mixed results.

    During this same time that I played today that fat guy who was ahead $340K Saturday morning played at my table. Now I see that he's not a good player it makes me angry to see someone play like that. No matter what he gets ahead he keeps playing until he loses it all. By yesterday afternoon he had lost all he was ahead and was even, then ahead $200K, now today he is down about -$100K. Apparently he owns a couple of marijuana dispensaries, so maybe he has some money to burn, but from how upset he gets when he is losing, the money must mean something to him. He's in one of the million dollar suites at the Cosmo so he must have at least a few hundred thousand on deposit.

    I talked to one of the pit bosses I know about him. Apparently the fat guy was in a limo, at the airport, ahead the two hundred grand, when he decided to come back, and since then, has lost it all and is down -100K. What he is up and down varies by the minute because he is betting anywhere from 1000 to 20000, with most of his bets around 5000. The reason I think he has only a few hundred thousand on deposit versus a million is that he has no special limits - he plays to $20K the same as the rest of us. If he had a million on deposit they would have raised his limit to at least thirty, maybe more.

    One thing, today he was wearing a diamond encrusted Rolex President but it looked aftermarket to me. All of my Rolexes including the ones I have with diamond markers or bezels are all factory. I am a Rolex purist I go for all factory only. His looks gaudy. Still he is a fellow gambler, and I respect him for risking his money, but he has no money management skills and will play until he loses it all is my prediction.
    Last edited by MDawg; 03-01-2020 at 08:55 PM.
    I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  13. #213
    The latest on the fat guy is that he is down -250K - I saw him in the pit around 8:30pm while on the way to pick up some Hattie B's to bring back to the room.

    As far as the other fat boy, the one who won the Baccarat tournament, he blew his entire 70K in promo chips that he won. I would have just put half on bank half on player and rinsed them, but he chose to gamble and ended with not a nickel.
    I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  14. #214
    Extended our suite to Wednesday. We do have to leave Wednesday though as I have some work in another city (not home) to take care of on Thursday. We'll be back home by the weekend.

    Two more days of play!
    I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  15. #215
    Originally Posted by Deech View Post
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    In the good counts the odds of the dealer and player catching the good cards are the same. The difference is the player gets paid 3:2 blackjack where the dealer gets only even money.



    yes, and there are 2 other major reasons the player will have an edge and one minor reason

    the player is more likely to catch a winning 10 or Ace or 9 on his double downs

    and the player is not required to hit when he has hard 12, 13, 14, 15 or 16 but the dealer is - since there are more high cards than low cards left he will bust more often than when there aren't more high cards left

    and the minor reason is that the player is better off on his splits for various reasons but not by a great amount
    There are a lot of us nominal players (myself included) that had a problem understanding that the player had an advantage on a favorable count when both the player and dealer can receive the same two cards. As you both have explained, 3:2 blackjack and splitting, and/or doubling in this favorable count adds to the advantage over the dealer. Thank you for helping those of us who still want to learn.
    Deech, another great house rule that smart counters look for is the late surrender option. This option only helps the basic strategy player slightly, but is worth at least tripple that gain to a card counter. The counter can slightly raise their larger bets knowing full well they have an out when needed, provided that the dealer does not have an ace in the hole blackjack.

  16. #216
    I will add a counter can take insurance "when the dealer shows an ace up" at the right times when the separate bet is positive EV.

  17. #217
    I am very familiar with the fact that if I go to Gold Coast with 6 decks, must hit on 17, doubling after splitting, not allowing additional splitting of aces nor surrender gives the house a .64% edge. I always have my trusty strategy chart with me. My buddy casually may try to count cards.

    For some of us, it was hard to grasp that when a count is favorable, that both the player and dealer may have the same opportunity to receive the optimal cards, it is the fact that a higher confidence of results will occur based on strategy (as the assumption of ten/face cards) are more likely to appear. If one plays according to optimal strategy the results have a larger percentage for success.

    It is crazy not to use math to your advantage. I just had to forget that while the player and dealer have an equal opportunity for a good hand, the player will have greater success (at a favorable count) when an advantage does occur.

  18. #218
    Originally Posted by Deech View Post
    I am very familiar with the fact that if I go to Gold Coast with 6 decks, must hit on 17, doubling after splitting, not allowing additional splitting of aces nor surrender gives the house a .64% edge. I always have my trusty strategy chart with me. My buddy casually may try to count cards.

    For some of us, it was hard to grasp that when a count is favorable, that both the player and dealer may have the same opportunity to receive the optimal cards, it is the fact that a higher confidence of results will occur based on strategy (as the assumption of ten/face cards) are more likely to appear. If one plays according to optimal strategy the results have a larger percentage for success.

    It is crazy not to use math to your advantage. I just had to forget that while the player and dealer have an equal opportunity for a good hand, the player will have greater success (at a favorable count) when an advantage does occur.


    Deech:


    there are 2 links here - one is a free card count trainer from the Wizard of Odds (Mike Shackleford) that doesn't have to be downloaded

    the other is software for sale -"Casino Verite" (it's only about $100) from Norm Wattenberger - I think it's generally considered the best out there - I'm not trying to sell you something - just saying





    https://wizardofodds.com/play/blackjack-v2/

    https://www.qfit.com/blackjack-games.htm
    please don't feed the trolls

  19. #219
    Mdawg is truly living the life! He constantly wins in one night what is like 9 months of work for me! I am so envious! Once again, I am envious, not jealous.
    https://photos.app.goo.gl/Zk2WAFzDcrJ7pjNB7

    Take comfort in the fact that no one is actually backing up his wishes to have you permanantly banned.


    Smart is knowing a Tomato is a fruit.

    Wise is knowing a Tomato doesn't belong in a fruit salad.



    I am glad to get my full posting rights back! Thank you Dan!

  20. #220
    Originally Posted by Tasha View Post
    Mdawg is truly living the life! He constantly wins in one night what is like 9 months of work for me! I am so envious! Once again, I am envious, not jealous.
    You more than likely win more money than he does just by playing the lottery.

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