The Adventures of MDawg (in progress)

[monet]

I will agree that my NHL bets are Negative EV.
However, I also bet the MLB and the NFL.
Those bets are Full on Positive Advantage Play.

[MDawg]

It's time for UNKewlJ to come crawling back to WOV and post some more about MDawg, in his high pitched complaining whiny voice. What can he say really though, other than that he ended in the red last year with his own casino play and then gave up. Meantime.

[MisterV]

Meantime.

Meantime, TatooDawg rings the bell, announcing that his latest load of horseshit is now spewing from his volcanic maw on Fantasy Island.

[Hawkesite]

...........................................
Could someone who is very good with math help me out here?
Could someone estimate the probability of winning 12 times in a row each time playing about 800 hands in a negative expectancy game where the house edge is about 1.15% (considering only bets on the Banker and Player, not any bets on a tie)?
And what is the probability that a person could play about 9600 hands of this game, again, against a house edge of about 1.15% and end up a huge winner?

This is not a math answer. In the late 70's/early 80's my boss was an A-card player at the old, old MGM (now Bally's), I went with him on 10 trips in a row where he won between 20K and 80K. He was a disciplined craps player. He knew the odds and the rules and he was able to press hard when he was challenged. His bankroll was never "scared money", so if he lost (and trip #11 - his 50th birthday party trip, was a disaster!) he moved on.

MDawg may well be telling the truth. I am keeping a wide-open mind. Baccarat and craps are the4 two best "no skill" bets in Vegas, which if coupled with a proper bankroll and a disciplined, winning approach, can win A LOT.

[redietz]

...........................................
Could someone who is very good with math help me out here?
Could someone estimate the probability of winning 12 times in a row each time playing about 800 hands in a negative expectancy game where the house edge is about 1.15% (considering only bets on the Banker and Player, not any bets on a tie)?
And what is the probability that a person could play about 9600 hands of this game, again, against a house edge of about 1.15% and end up a huge winner?

This is not a math answer. In the late 70's/early 80's my boss was an A-card player at the old, old MGM (now Bally's), I went with him on 10 trips in a row where he won between 20K and 80K. He was a disciplined craps player. He knew the odds and the rules and he was able to press hard when he was challenged. His bankroll was never "scared money", so if he lost (and trip #11 - his 50th birthday party trip, was a disaster!) he moved on.

MDawg may well be telling the truth. I am keeping a wide-open mind. Baccarat and craps are the4 two best "no skill" bets in Vegas, which if coupled with a proper bankroll and a disciplined, winning approach, can win A LOT.

And if anyone doubts this, they can ask that paragon of discipline and winning, Phil Ivey.

Sorry, man, when people trot out personal anecdotes and "disciplined, winning approach" mantras regarding -EV games, it's tough to skip the snark. I mean, if I jump off a 20-story building, I CAN FLY A LOT...until my trip comes to an end.


P.S. For those outside the loop, Ivey is a brilliant poker player who has lost a fortune at craps. Possibly like MDawg, Ivey has rebate angles, but please don't dangle "disciplined, winning approach" lines without mentioning rebates or other means of "winning" besides being blessed by God.

[Hawkesite]

Anyway, so those are two things to think about - quitting while you are ahead, and not chasing losses. I am a cooly analytical gambler. I try to play without emotion.
.

That is the heart of a winning attitude.

[Hawkesite]

Does your statement above answer the OP's earlier question below?

as long as you understand that the vast majority of the time you will have sessions where you are ahead at some point, and you always leave when ahead, then why is it so hard to accept that quitting when ahead you will win most of your sessions?

Do you not accept that quitting while ahead will result in winning most sessions played?

Coach, can you or anyone else show us the math that says the vast majority of time you will be ahead at some point in a session?

Mine own experience is that 7 of 10 games I am ahead. I quit then. I win almost every trip. Q.E.D.

[redietz]

Anyway, so those are two things to think about - quitting while you are ahead, and not chasing losses. I am a cooly analytical gambler. I try to play without emotion.
.

That is the heart of a winning attitude.

You know how it goes. Some people prioritize winning attitudes over winning. I've always enjoyed my winning attitude. I was blessed with one out of a Crackerjacks box when I was nine.

[redietz]

Does your statement above answer the OP's earlier question below?



Do you not accept that quitting while ahead will result in winning most sessions played?

Coach, can you or anyone else show us the math that says the vast majority of time you will be ahead at some point in a session?

Mine own experience is that 7 of 10 games I am ahead. I quit then. I win almost every trip. Q.E.D.

This reminds me of wisdom from my first cross-country coach, who smoked menthols while walking us around the course the first time. "Boys," he said, "you have to be ahead at the finish line to win."

Words to live by.

[Hawkesite]

[QUOTE=BoSox;97505]

Let's just say that I am a strong believer in the fact that no matter how hard you try you cannot make a negative expectation game positive unless you are comp hustling or using different forms of advantage play.

Then you are clearly not a serious gambler. If you can keep the game to a near-even money bet (and Baccarat is that) and you exercise disciplined money management, you can leave a winner far more often than not.

The advantage the player has is that he can LEAVE when he is ahead. and in even money (or near even money) games, that happens often, especially if you stay focussed on why you are playing.

The three non-skilled games (poker is a skilled game) that are worth looming at for serious players (as opposed to the self-destructive comp chasing slots types) are 21 (with any discipline at all, near break-even, if you can count, you can go positive by a small amount), craps and Baccarat. I never play anything but craps, but Baccarat is very, very popular among serious A Card players. IIRC Baccarat has a house edge of 1.6%, triple odds craps is at 0.35% and 21 with the right play and basic counting basically even money.

[Hawkesite]

Coach, can you or anyone else show us the math that says the vast majority of time you will be ahead at some point in a session?

Mine own experience is that 7 of 10 games I am ahead. I quit then. I win almost every trip. Q.E.D.

This reminds me of wisdom from my first cross-country coach, who smoked menthols while walking us around the course the first time. "Boys," he said, "you have to be ahead at the finish line to win."

Words to live by.

My CC coach said the very same thing. decades ago. And they were right.

[MDawg]

Hi Hawkesite and Welcome! to The Adventures of MDawg.

To a certain extent you'll be banging your head against the wall with this lot. They don't even comprehend that money management and discipline are keys to casino success, especially at streaky games like Baccarat.

They don't even want to accept that "leaving while ahead" is key to success. Uh, how else does one win at the tables? By leaving while behind??

[coach belly]

Then you are clearly not a serious gambler.

Your quotes are all messed up.

You are attributing a BoSox post to me.

[coach belly]

I mean, if I jump off a 20-story building, I CAN FLY A LOT...until my trip comes to an end.

Hawk...don't pay any attention to the ditz.

Equating gambling luck with jumping off a skyscraper?...he obviously has a screw loose.

[Hawkesite]

Thank you!

[accountinquestion]

Yes, you can make it so that you leave a winner the majority of time but this isn't the same as winning money overall.

Just like martingaling can make your winning sessions completely outnumber your losing ones.

The distribution of winning/losing sessions can be monkeyed with but this also means you're leaving while barely ahead to lock up the win. Mdawg never claims to do that from what I recall but I don't read his inane shit.

[MDawg]

They all read every bit of what I write, especially the ones who claim that they don't who are the ones who PM me after reading what I wrote.

In any case, you're on the right track Hawk with money management and discipline. Make your own decisions about anything or anyone else here.

[accountinquestion]

They all read every bit of what I write, especially the ones who claim that they don't who are the ones who PM me after reading what I wrote.

In any case, you're on the right track Hawk with money management and discipline. Make your own decisions about anything or anyone else here.

In my case I ignore the threads about your trading and gambling. Couldn't be more wrong. Thats why I don't really enter into discussions about you because I truly don't give a shit. We got Rob Singer and Mickey Crimm. Who the fuck are you again ?

[coach belly]

Thats why I don't really enter into discussions about you because I truly don't give a shit.

What discussion are you in right now?...you idiot.

Check the title of the thread if you forgot where you were.

[accountinquestion]

Thats why I don't really enter into discussions about you because I truly don't give a shit.

What discussion are you in right now?...you idiot.

Check the title of the thread if you forgot where you were.

And I still don't read his posts. I'll read some of hit shit when he goes after Axel or what have you but I don't read his trip-report/trading nonsense. It isn't entertaining or worth my time, why would I? I'm not some idiot with bad math fantasies.