The Adventures of MDawg (in progress)

[mickeycrimm]

MickeyCrimm, I suppose you're just trying to act deliberately obtuse to get back at me for calling you on your minimum wage calculation...but you know those posts of mine about losing sessions were posted last year. You can't be that dense.

I just post what happens as it happens. The main problem I suppose is that you're just reading the Adventures of MDawg (IN PROGRESS) on this here thread. If you went back two years you'd see the full story, which is corroborated by the win statements I posted more recently.

What is funneee is that the more of the requested proof I provide the more hysterical the opposition gets. Their panties get even more twisted, why?

Here's the thing. You make negative statements that you don't even know whether they are true or not. I made far above minimum wage. But you've been pushing the minimum wage thing like its the truth when you know damn well you have no clue what I have made. THAT TELLS ME YOU ARE WILLING TO LIE. My only contention in all of this is your winning 40 sessions in a row claim. That's it. I dont' give a shit about the rest. I don't care for your trip reports. I might look if I don't have anything better to do.

After all of the arguing you've done about how stupid we are for not believing your claims YOU ADMIT TO HAVING A LOSING SESSION. I suspect there were more but thats a start for you coming clean.

If you won in 2019 and 2020 hey great. My guess is you didn't play that much and experienced some positive variance. But long term, dude, you got no shot.

[coach belly]

Let's say that MDawg claims he has flapped his arms and flown around the block like a bird.

You don't need to suppose claims that MDawg hasn't made.

You can't argue that he didn't win at baccarat because he couldn't prove that he could fly.

MDawg has had 40 winning trips in a row, or so he says.

I haven't read where he claimed that.

Again, there's no need to cite claims that MDawg hasn't made, focus your examination on what he has written.

Use the quote function so that readers can view the original post that you've quoted, to verify what you are claiming is true.

As it stands now, you are lying...again.

[coach belly]

The team at cabinet coatings in Lancaster PA is looking forward to a trip to Vegas!

Is this the company that Boz recently sold?

[mickeycrimm]

The best example of this continues to be roulette. Can a player walk into a casino, bet on black and win 3 of 4 spins and leave? Absolutely. Can he do that every day for a year. Absolutely NOT!

Some will say that streaks are all imaginary, that we see what we want to see, that there are no patterns in random events.

But...the difference between Baccarat and dice, for example, is that IF there is a pattern set in that Baccarat shoe, it WILL come up and repeat because the cards are fixed, set, may not be changed, once placed in the shoe.

While with dice (or roulette), there is no set future pattern, as each roll of the dice is a truly independent event.

A subtle, but substantial difference.

I have heard of Bacc. players who have a general rule of "I bet whatever hand just won." Well for such a player, if he chances upon a shoe with a twenty-two bank or player run, and also has a general rule of pressing after each win, which many Bacc. players do in fact have these two rules, then every time he comes upon a shoe that has runs in it, he will make a lot, especially if he leaves right after the long run and doesn't keep playing that shoe.

However, these two rules of "always bet whatever just happened" and "press each time you just won" won't necessarily matter with events where the future is not fixed, like in dice rolls.

I mean yes, people will come back and say that over time no matter how much you make on runs things will even out over time and you'll give it back trying to bet on runs that never materialize. But, if you play the shoes with a discernible pattern hard and play lightly or simply get up and leave when presented with a random shoe, you might wind up ahead! including over time.

If you may imagine it, let's say that slot machine spins were not each truly independent, and some machines were set to pay off huge and nothing you could do would alter that pay off as long as you sat down and played at the machine. For me, a good baccarat shoe is like a slot machine that is set to pay. And, I am able to discern well before the shoe is over, whether this shoe is a pattern shoe that will pay off big, or a random shoe that will not.

If you don't believe that there is such a thing as a good shoe, where any decent player will win big, then you shouldn't play Baccarat.

But you can't get a reputable mathematician to back your strategy. Here's the thing about those streaks you see. They are all in the past. They have no bearing on the future. IF you've won 10 hands in a row the odds of winning the next hand are the same, they don't change. YOU JUST THINK THEY DO.

[mickeycrimm]

The team at cabinet coatings in Lancaster PA is looking forward to a trip to Vegas!

Is this the company that Boz recently sold?

No, Boz owned a Restaurant/Bar. Microbrews and Pizza were his specialty, I think. I was invited to the place, in Pennsylvania, but never made it back east. He must have done well because he sold and retired at 55.

[MDawg]

In any case we have two separate trains of thought:

1) Did MDawg win. Yes, he did, and he has proved it in multiple ways.

2) Why did MDawg win. You may discuss this ad infinitum but it doesn't alter the fact of #1.

[MDawg]

But you can't get a reputable mathematician to back your strategy. Here's the thing about those streaks you see. They are all in the past. They have no bearing on the future. IF you've won 10 hands in a row the odds of winning the next hand are the same, they don't change. YOU JUST THINK THEY DO.

You're just repeating what you've heard. You've never played enough (or any) Baccarat to know.

[mickeycrimm]

In any case we have two separate trains of thought:

1) Did MDawg win. Yes, he did, and he has proved it in multiple ways.

2) Why did MDawg win. You may discuss this ad infinitum but it doesn't the fact of #1.

But the claim of winning doesn't qualify anything. How about this, MDawg. I can win $100,000 playing craps. I've made a claim. How true is it? At a 1% house edge it will cost me about $101,000 to win $100,000 as long as my bets are super small to take the variance out of it. It will be a net loss but I won $100,000 worth of bets. So you claiming you won means nothing.

[MDawg]

What you describe - what would be the point of that?

I've over all won and haven't had a losing trip these two years since I returned to play. And I back this up with a lot.

[Rob.Singer]

All this bickering---it never goes anywhere. And while I fully believe a person can win playing slightly negative EV games and can win over time because I've done it, where mdawg exposes himself is in trying to convince everybody that he's won 40 straight sessions doing this, and with his silly, totally meaningless and stoopid postings of cash, markers, and comped foodstuff that he foolishly hopes will change minds.

As soon as people realize that he's nothing more than your typical everyday egomaniacal California flake who desperately needs unknown people on gambling forums to believe him because his one-upmanship neighbors don't, you'll stop feeding him.

[MDawg]

Wait - are there really TWO MDawg threads now, and both the most popular threads on this forum?

I posted in one by mistake thinking it was this one. I can't keep track myself! I'm not sure what Rob posted as it's blocked but he seems to have posted in both too.

Posted in stereo, so to speak!

[mickeycrimm]

Wait - are there really TWO MDawg threads now, and both the most popular threads on this forum?

I posted in one by mistake thinking it was this one. I can't keep track myself! I'm not sure what Rob posted as it's blocked but he seems to have posted in both too.

Posted in stereo, so to speak!

You post on three different gambling forums at all hours of the day and night. When do you ever work?

[MDawg]

Good question.

I actually just post mostly in one, then eventually get around to copy/pasting the same thing in the other.

I was going to bail on all but one forum but then Coronavirus quarantine hit and I have too much time on my hands.
https://giphy.com/explore/just-when-i-thought-i-was-out
I also didn't plan on posting anything again until May! (next trip, if it happens) but here I am posting.

[AndrewG]

In any case we have two separate trains of thought:

1) Did MDawg win. Yes, he did, and he has proved it in multiple ways.

2) Why did MDawg win. You may discuss this ad infinitum but it doesn't alter the fact of #1.

Actually the point that matters is #2. Can someone else win like you?

You mentioned shoes with a run of cards for the player winning. How would I know such a run is coming?

If you can detect such a run before hand I want your info.

If you can't detect such a run before hand did you just get lucky?

I am sure there are winning players and you might be one of them. But unless your winning system or strategy can be repeated by me or anyone else it's nothing more than a cocktail waitress hitting Megabucks with a $20 bill.

[MDawg]

Hi Andrew,

Well, put it this way. When I arrive at the casino for a trip, which we move from one casino to the next after an average of say five to seven nights, so let's view each five to seven night stay as one trip, I encounter a lot of Baccarat players. I'm rarely the big winner on the first night, or any night (with exceptions, sometimes I am), but by the end of the trip I unfortunately never see another one of the players I encountered along the way leave town ahead. Almost invariably, FAR more often than may be explained by the mere house edge, each one of them ends up losing his or her entire bankroll. I've seen a player be ahead over three hundred thousand while I'm steadily plodding along with my average five hundred or so, bets, and by the end of the trip, he's down a hundred grand or more and I'm leaving ahead over twenty.

Yes if these other players would follow me they would win - consistently - but is there some formula I could write up in a book to teach someone to do what I do?

But no, it's not just blind luck. Blind luck would not have lasted all these years.

[kewlJ]

But no, it's not just blind luck. Blind luck would not have lasted all these years.

Then (for the hundredth time) explain to us what it is. If you don't do that, it is very hard to give you the benefit of doubt.

[MDawg]

Hey I just posted a SHALL-AHNGE at WOV - anyone with $50K shows up in Vegas (whenever that might be, and Vegas is reopened for safe action), and plays table game of his choice, I play Baccarat only with my $50K bankroll, and after four days I guarantee I will have won more.

Actually I made this wager originally some four months ago at WOV but the guy I challenged, Michael99000, whiffed.

[mickeycrimm]

But no, it's not just blind luck. Blind luck would not have lasted all these years.

Then (for the hundredth time) explain to us what it is. If you don't do that, it is very hard to give you the benefit of doubt.

He's already said that if you see a streak in a shoe it will continue because the rest of the cards are set the same. Of course, there is no science to back up this conclusion. He's a professional guesser.

[mickeycrimm]

Coach Belly, very nice of you to broker the wager between MDawg and Axel. Now, Axel has said there has to be money on it and you can bet it has to be a substantial amount. He also said he gets to play any game in the house, not limited to table games. MDawg is coming behind and saying he doesn't want a wager and Axel must play a table game. That's not what Axel said he would do. And I guarantee you Axel will not take a wager unless his conditions are met. There is a very good reason for it.

If the bet goes down then with his strategy Axel is guaranteed to win. Trust me. This is shit that only AP's know. You and MDawg are not AP's.

[coach belly]

Axel has said there has to be money on it and you can bet it has to be a substantial amount. He also said he gets to play any game in the house, not limited to table games. MDawg is coming behind and saying he doesn't want a wager and Axel must play a table game. That's not what Axel said he would do.

Go back to WOV and read the thread again, you're misunderstanding some or most of what's been written.

You're wrong that Axel must play a table game, and whether or not Axel demanded a substantial wager is not clear.

It would help clear things up if Axel would name the amount of the wager he needs to participate, but he didn't mention a wager on this forum when he asked for himself and Mike to be invited to witness MDawg's play.

But there is plenty of time to work the conditions out.

So far it looks encouraging.