The Adventures of MDawg (in progress)

[MDawg]

There MickeyCrimm goes with the profanity and silly nonsense about things he knows nothing about. Reminds me how in elementary school I brought a fillet mignon to some class event at the park to barbecue, and my buddy confessed that he had never even tasted anything like that and wanted to try it. And today, MickeyCrimm's commentary on high stakes casino gambling is about as absurd as if my friend had instead started going on and on how great such steaks are when he'd never even tried or seen such a thing in his life.

What's really funny, is that MickeyCrimm goes on and on about how no one cares about the Adventures of MDawg, but ALL HE DOES is post in my thread. He's obsessed with me. It's actually not funny anymore Mickey, you're becoming more like a bad taste that needs to be spit out. If you're so star struck by me please try at least not so much to show it - your obsequiousness is starting to get nauseating.

[MDawg]

TablePlay if I play ten hands of Baccarat and I play three or four at two hundred each, two or three at five hundred, one or two at a thousand, and one at five thousand, not any sort of Martingale, just not necessarily in that order, how many do I need to win, in order to wind up ahead?

Now what if I win the first hand for 5000, and I have nine hands to play?

What if I win the first hand for 1000, and I have nine hands to play?

And so on.

If you can answer each of these scenarios with just plain straight statistics, then I'll gather that you are not a math major and instead just someone copy/pasting something that has little relevance, because the answer requires more sophisticated math than what you are displaying.

P.S. Why is your username tableplay? Do you actually play tables, or just machines/slots?

[mickeycrimm]

There MickeyCrimm goes with the profanity and silly nonsense about things he knows nothing about. Reminds me how in elementary school I brought a fillet mignon to some class event at the park to barbecue, and my buddy confessed that he had never even tasted anything like that and wanted to try it. And today, MickeyCrimm's commentary on high stakes casino gambling is about as absurd as if my friend had instead started going on and on how great such steaks are when he'd never even tried or seen such a thing in his life.

What's really funny, is that MickeyCrimm goes on and on about how no one cares about the Adventures of MDawg, but ALL HE DOES is post in my thread. He's obsessed with me. It's actually not funny anymore Mickey, you're becoming more like a bad taste that needs to be spit out. If you're so star struck by me please try at least not so much to show it - your obsequiousness is starting to get nauseating.

Nope, no one with any sense cares about your "adventures." It's a waste of time to read. You're just a troll and run of the mill at that. Your story doesn't interest me in the least. What does interest me is the great harm, disservice, damage you bring to the gambling forums. I'm talking about people new to gambling, or trying to learn strategic gambling, who could be influenced by your false narrative of it being easy to beat negative games. In short, you are full of shit. Troll on, assclown. But someone here is going to respond to your bullshit narrative.

[MDawg]

I never spend time thinking about and commenting on things I don't care about! I guess you must be different.

Keep 'em coming Mickey! You're showing an obsession with MDawg. I seem to keep you up at night trying to think of what to say in response to posts of mine that haven't even been written yet, admit it!

[tableplay]

TablePlay if I play ten hands of Baccarat and I play three or four at two hundred each, two or three at five hundred, one or two at a thousand, and one at five thousand, not any sort of Martingale, just not necessarily in that order, how many do I need to win, in order to wind up ahead?

Now what if I win the first hand for 5000, and I have nine hands to play?

What if I win the first hand for 1000, and I have nine hands to play?

And so on.

If you can answer each of these scenarios with just plain straight statistics, then I'll gather that you are not a math major and instead just someone copy/pasting something that has little relevance, because the answer requires more sophisticated math than what you are displaying.

P.S. Why is your username tableplay? Do you actually play tables, or just machines/slots?

My username has nothing to do with tables - it comes from my enjoyment of playing pinball tables. I was a BJ counter in the early 90's. Since I was bad at camouflage (and took heat) I switched to machines (starting out with full pay VP and then adding vulturables) and have no regrets (also some online shit). I guess you are disputing the author of the website if you are also disputing me. I came up with the same result as the author using methodology that the author does not show on his or her website (I am assuming he/she used that same methodology) and then also used it for the million hand case. I may answer your other questions above in another post.

[coach belly]

I'm talking about people new to gambling, or trying to learn strategic gambling, who could be influenced by your false narrative of it being easy to beat negative games.

Complete nonsense...tickey's imaginary friends, another sign of his mental illness.

Go back to bed and play with GI Joe dolls, make them do to each other the things that you, Boz and Keystone love to write about.

[mickeycrimm]

TablePlay if I play ten hands of Baccarat and I play three or four at two hundred each, two or three at five hundred, one or two at a thousand, and one at five thousand, not any sort of Martingale, just not necessarily in that order, how many do I need to win, in order to wind up ahead?

Now what if I win the first hand for 5000, and I have nine hands to play?

What if I win the first hand for 1000, and I have nine hands to play?

And so on.

If you can answer each of these scenarios with just plain straight statistics, then I'll gather that you are not a math major and instead just someone copy/pasting something that has little relevance, because the answer requires more sophisticated math than what you are displaying.

P.S. Why is your username tableplay? Do you actually play tables, or just machines/slots?

Each bet you make has a negative expectation no matter what the size of it is. You keep talking like the big bets always win. They have just as much chance of losing as they do of winning. What happens if you lose all of your 5K bets?

[mickeycrimm]

I never spend time thinking about and commenting on things I don't care about! I guess you must be different.

Keep 'em coming Mickey! You're showing an obsession with MDawg. I seem to keep you up at night trying to think of what to say in response to posts of mine that haven't even been written yet, admit it!

I've got you on the ropes, nimrod. Your bullshit don't work here. Troll on, loser.

[mickeycrimm]

I'm talking about people new to gambling, or trying to learn strategic gambling, who could be influenced by your false narrative of it being easy to beat negative games.

Complete nonsense...tickey's imaginary friends, another sign of his mental illness.

Go back to bed and play with GI Joe dolls, make them do to each other the things that you, Boz and Keystone love to write about.

And don't forget to lick MDawgs ass after you suck his dick. You actually have to think, something you can't do, to be an advantage gambler. You never seen a negative bet you didn't like, sucker.

[Keystone]

I'm talking about people new to gambling, or trying to learn strategic gambling, who could be influenced by your false narrative of it being easy to beat negative games.

Complete nonsense...tickey's imaginary friends, another sign of his mental illness.

Go back to bed and play with GI Joe dolls, make them do to each other the things that you, Boz and Keystone love to write about.

I may write about it for humors sake. You actually live it out following these dudes around

[MDawg]

Why don't you go start a thread called, The Small Time, Minimum Wage Antics of Mickey Crimm? I promise not to comment in it that sort of low end play I truly know nothing about. You'll have the thread all to yourself.

[MDawg]

But if you get lonely, you could share the thread with Axel, and add a subtitle, The Day I Asked a High Roller to Bankroll Me on his Own Play.

[AxelWolf]

THANK YOU BOZ AND POKERGRINDER for your kind words! SooPoo as well, I don't know if he lurks.

You guys have interacted with many people from the forums in person for years. Both of you guys have been stand up guys who I know to be trustworthy.

None of the guys making claims know anything first hand. They themselves are unknown to anyone IRL. It's all just nonsense bits and pieces they they scavenge from forum from other people who for the most part are also unknown to anyone IRL.

No doubt I have my flaws, but certainly not what they desire to have everyone to believe.

[tableplay]

Here is an excerpt of all 512 possible situations (assuming order is not important) where you would end up ahead using the betting amounts you listed (a '1' is a win and a '-1' is a loss) for ten bets. Note that the $5000 bet must win and you have a 49.3% chance of making a $5000 bet that wins. Vbulletin will not let me post the full table of results (it has a character limit) that is why I am only showing an excerpt.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 -1 7 500 -1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 -1 7 500 -1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 2700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 -1 7 500 -1 8 1000 1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 2700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 -1 7 500 -1 8 1000 1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 4700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 -1 7 500 1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 1700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 -1 7 500 1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 3700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 -1 7 500 1 8 1000 1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 3700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 -1 7 500 1 8 1000 1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 5700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 1 7 500 -1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 1700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 1 7 500 -1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 3700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 1 7 500 -1 8 1000 1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 3700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 1 7 500 -1 8 1000 1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 5700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 1 7 500 1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 2700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 1 7 500 1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 4700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 1 7 500 1 8 1000 1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 4700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 -1 6 500 1 7 500 1 8 1000 1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 6700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 1 6 500 -1 7 500 -1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 1700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 1 6 500 -1 7 500 -1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 3700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 1 6 500 -1 7 500 -1 8 1000 1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 3700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 1 6 500 -1 7 500 -1 8 1000 1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 5700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 1 6 500 -1 7 500 1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 2700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 1 6 500 -1 7 500 1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 4700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 1 6 500 -1 7 500 1 8 1000 1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 4700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 1 6 500 -1 7 500 1 8 1000 1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 6700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 1 6 500 1 7 500 -1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 2700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 1 6 500 1 7 500 -1 8 1000 -1 9 1000 1 10 5000 1 4700
1 200 -1 2 200 -1 3 200 -1 4 200 -1 5 500 1 6 500 1 7 500 -1 8 1000 1 9 1000 -1 10 5000 1 4700

[BoSox]

I never spend time thinking about and commenting on things I don't care about!

Anyone with half a brain knows that very well about you. Such as never once in your life have you ever played a single hand of Baccarat with an edge. How does it feel to have so much self vanity locked up in your brain that you do not even realize that there are other people walking the earth? You are like a walking time bomb ready to explode, a menace to society, the most dangerous kind at that, one who truly believes with blind recognition. You may impress most all the dreamers, but you will never impress the people that you really want to.

[MDawg]

I hate to shatter your ego Botox

but no one cares what you think, you're not relevant, not in my thread. Step aside, and let MDawg keep posting his Adventures, as they happen.

Judging from that all you do is complain about what others have done, you don't have much of a story to tell, but if you do - create your own thread. If it is interesting I would be happy to read it!


You can't crunch it that way TablePlay. Try some probability calculus, for starters. Nor have you figured in any variance. Just drop it, hire someone to crunch it for you.

[tableplay]

I hate to shatter your ego Botox

but no one cares what you think, you're not relevant, not in my thread. Step aside, and let MDawg keep posting his Adventures, as they happen.

Judging from that all you do is complain about what others have done, you don't have much of a story to tell, but if you do - create your own thread. If it is interesting I would be happy to read it!


You can't crunch it that way TablePlay. Try some probability calculus, for starters. Nor have you figured in any variance. Just drop it, hire someone to crunch it for you.

Wow, what a joke of a statement. I have a table of every possible outcome on those bets. Every single possibility - I brute-forced an SQL query so that every combination is considered. Every known 10 bet result is in the table. If every possibility is accounted for, there is no variance. How amazingly absurd of you:

[MDawg]

You can't get the answer linearly. You haven't even set it up right to even begin to get the right answer! Go back to pinball.

Anyway, if you're just here to keep reporting that ridiculous twenty million to one figure, you don't even have to show me any figures, that result alone is indicative of that you can't even set up the problem.

Answer me this - forget about house edge, assume no house edge, over the short term: does a player have a higher probability of winning if he varies the bet, versus if he flat bets?

Next assume a tiny house edge, same question. Different answer?

Finally answer the above two same questions, again over the short term, answering about whether a player has a higher probability of losing (if he varies the bet).

[tableplay]

You can't get the answer linearly. You haven't even set it up right to even begin to get the right answer! Go back to pinball.

Anyway, if you're just here to keep reporting that ridiculous twenty million to one figure, you don't even have to show me any figures, that result alone is indicative of that you can't even set up the problem.

Answer me this - forget about house edge, assume no house edge, over the short term: does a player have a higher probability of winning if he varies the bet, versus if he flat bets?

Next assume a tiny house edge, same question. Different answer?

If you do not win your $5000 bet, you are an overall loser of the ten hands - it does not matter if you win the other 9 bets because their total is less than $5000. You have a 49.3% chance of winning that $5000 bet. Only a fool would not consider the house edge over any term. You gave me a designated value for all ten bets, now you are trying to move the goal posts with other bet values for the 10 hands. In any event, it does not matter how you structure the value of your 10 bets, each one has a 49.3% of winning, thus the answer to your question is that the player does not have a higher chance of winning if he varies his bets.
Take any sequence X1,X2,X3,X4,X5,X6,X7,X8,X9,X10 - regardless of their values they still must be multiplied by the constant .493.

[MDawg]

And see, now it becomes painfully obvious that you have no idea what any of this means.

The correct answer for all of those scenarios is not a yes or no, but IT DEPENDS ON THE VARIANCE. This is short term, remember? Variance in terms of gambling means situations where you end up winning more (or less, but for purposes of this one moment let's assume more) hands than would be statistically expected. So are you still going to tell me that if you end up in a situation, where for WHATEVER reason, you end up winning 10 out of 12 hands, that you are going to still just win the same amount if you flat bet a 100, versus you bet different amounts, each bet more than just 100?

By the way, the above four questions had nothing to do with the sets of bets I defined before. The above four questions were just asking, in general, flat betting versus varying your bet.

Anyway, I won't get into the advanced part of this, as to what that means on a Baccarat table for a player like me.