The Adventures of MDawg (in progress)

[tableplay]

The average bet on winning hands should be greater than $1.047 for each $1 bet on losing hands.

So for 20 winning hands, if the player bets $1 on 19 hands, and $2 on one hand, then his average bet for those 20 winning hands will be $1.05.

Is that correct?

Yes that's correct.

[Half Smoke]

haven't had a losing trip since returning to gambling in 2018. I'd also have to say that most of my play over the past two years has been Baccarat.

As Gomer Pyle of Mayberry, North Carolina would say....Shazaaaaam

That has got to be at least 60 or 70 winning trips in a row.

And I'll bet that at least 30 of those trips were nice, big, juicy, crushing wins.





it's truly amaaaaaaaaazing.




this dude has got to be one of the greatest gamblers in the history of the world

[regnis]

My compadres and I ate there last time we were in Cosmo. It's one of our staples. We saw Opium, which you really should check out. One of our guys knows a bit about show design (he is friends with a world class illusionist). He said Opium (by the same group that does Absinthe) is oodles better than Absinthe. It is a wild show.

If you ever get to Nashville, they have Hattie B's, of course, but there is also a place called Prince's Hot Chicken that is other-worldly. I had the medium and it almost killed me.

Sadly--the original Prince's in Nashville burnt down several years ago and they have decided not to re-open in that location. They did open in a more "suburban" neighborhood. The original had an ambiance (in other words fear for your life) that can't be replaced.

Regnis -- LOL -- you must have read my mind. I wrote and then erased the following comments when I first posted.

When we went to Prince's (the original that burned down), it was 2 AM. We had seen an MMA event in Nashville. Anyway, when we got to Prince's, the place was packed. But we were the only white dudes in there except for a monstrous guy with a full-size marijuana leaf tattoo covering his huge bald head.

So yeah, MDawg should be okay in the new one.

My compadres and I like to say that we're at home in any environment. The old Prince's at 2 AM on Sunday morning is one of those environments we're talking about.

I'm from the south side of Chicago so I don't scare that easily. I was there many times. But my lily white suburban wife, although she loved the chicken, refused to ever go again. So when I'm with her it's Hattie B's.

[Rob.Singer]

What I'm seeing is this guy Mdawg claims wins more often and more than you claim to, kew. Is he queer too?

[MDawg]

Sixty or seventy trips? We go to Vegas several times a year, albeit true, each trip is anywhere from ten days to a month long, with average being two weeks. This is the second trip of this year, which actually the prior one started right after XMas so, do we consider that prior one a 2019, or a 2020 trip? In 2019, if I were to think, I believe there were 4 or 5 trips.

Someone mentioned Voodoo. I brought a few bottles of water from the Palms along with all the health drinks. One of them was opened, but I was the only one who had drunk from it.

Last night I put two bottles by the nightstand on my wife's side, and two next to me. I drained one of them entirely, and I think that was the already opened one. At some point I drank most of the other bottle too. Late at night my wife woke me up and afterwards I grabbed the bottle by the side of the bed, and ugh. Tasted awful. It was dark in the room so I didn't look at it again until morning.

So what is that brown liquid in there? I thought at first, okay maybe tea, maybe I drank some tea and back washed it at some point into the bottle, although, that's not likely in that I am a creature of habit and once brushed and flossed in the evening I do not eat or drink anything other than water again until morning, and I know I took long draughts from both bottles, in fact drained one of them entirely prior to this bad taste swig, and experienced nothing but clear water. I smelled it, and it smells...odd. Nothing recognizable. Also the inside of the bottle seems oily. Quite a mystery.

My wife wants to take the bottle and get it analyzed!

She said, That's a whore move, someone trying to poison you. "I promise it wasn't me." She's quite the joker sometimes, but she's serious about trying to find out what happened here.


Back from the gym, we ate Thai Food (Pok Pok)

We'll relax a while, and then I'll go down to play soon.

[MDawg]

Blackjack, I already wrote about that. I vary the bet wildly, I count, I shuffle track, I track clumps if I can, I do whatever it takes. As I already wrote, I have been banned from BJ before, and am still banned from the casino with the lowest house edge BJ in all of Vegas.

[kewlJ]

Blackjack, I already wrote about that. I vary the bet wildly, I count, I shuffle track, I track clumps if I can, I do whatever it takes. As I already wrote, I have been banned from BJ before, and am still banned from the casino with the lowest house edge BJ in all of Vegas.

That's fine. You have listed several legitimate things that can enable you to play with an advantage. That is what I wanted to know.

I am not here to challenge whether you are or aren't. I only do that when players are claiming to win without something that turns the game to their advantage or when players invent or use some sort of alternative math to back their claims. And I only voice my opinion when players are intentionally misleading other players with their claims. I see none of that from you. Your claim of ALL winning sessions is pretty hard to believe. Hopefully, there is some selective memory at work here. But whatever.

Again, I am enjoying your trip report and pictures.

[Rob.Singer]

Sounds like he can count THREE tables at once kew. How's your math able to handle THAT?

[AxelWolf]

Blackjack, I already wrote about that. I vary the bet wildly, I count, I shuffle track, I track clumps if I can, I do whatever it takes. As I already wrote, I have been banned from BJ before, and am still banned from the casino with the lowest house edge BJ in all of Vegas.

You can count,shuffle track, track clumps etc, yet you choose to play -EV baccarat. I CALL BULLSHIT.

[kewlJ]

Sounds like he can count THREE tables at once kew. How's your math able to handle THAT?

I really don't want to have Mdawgs thread hijacked, but this is just another case of you not having a clue about what you are talking about, Rob. I and many other players already are able to track multiple tables (that means 3 or more), when conditions are favorable to do so. Granted conditions have to be just right. The most common situation for me is that I am playing one table and conditions are right to track a second table (table not too crowded with a clear view). So tables on both sides are shuffling and about to start play at just about the same time. I track both tables for a short time, as best I can, maybe 2-3 rounds and then drop the less favorable situation of the two and just track the game I am playing and the better opportunity of the other two. And sometimes that decision is made for you by someone jumping in and gobbling up seats or blocking a line of view.

Now of course MR Know it all will respond that it can't be done, but it is done all the time by experienced players when conditions are just right. Let's be clear, I am able to track a second table maybe once a day. Tracking two other tables for just a couple rounds, that situation which really has to be just right occurs probably 2-3 times a month.

AND this is exactly what spotters on any call in blackjack teams do. They track 3, 4, 5 tables at once, dropping the tables that are unfavorable. But go ahead Rob, tell us how it can't be done, as if you have a clue.

[MDawg]

KewlJ is right. It can be done. Did I do it with BJ? play at one table and count another? Not really, because I was playing mostly double deck and by the time I might've noticed something next door it would be too late given that I'd have to get up with my chips and go to another table even if mid shoe entry was allowed, which back then, it pretty much always was allowed.

But what I did used to do and still do with BJ - just observe multiple tables and then jump into the one where the count is fabulous for a solid hand or series of hands.

However I do the same with Baccarat. While I am playing a table I am watching the screens around me and if I notice a run in progress or a shoe that follows an easy pattern, or a shoe that is heavily favoring one side or the other - AND the table I am at is not happening, I switch over. The mistake you non-Baccarat aficionados are making is assuming that there is no rime or reason to Baccarat. My success at the game belies this, to the nth degree.

There is one thing that helps BJ these days versus before...that most casinos won't even let you touch the cards even on a double deck. It is so much easier to count since all cards are open face.


I have two people on PAPER CHASE ghosting ("shrouding") status now. Can you guess who the other person is? HINT: according to the others, he's a drunk. Still, if he's sober now my hat's off to him for that, but doesn't mean I have to pay any mind to his negativity.


Tonight was like...money from home. Barely betting (average around four hunny), never behind at any point, walked with 6400. I played just 2 and a quarter shoes.

Cashed 1400 only of it because when you cash too much they threaten to temp close your line, and held onto the 5K chip. When I cashed the 14 hunny I slid the cashier ten bucks from my wallet.

Marker paid. I LOVE THOSE FLAGS.


Tomorrow is the Bacc. tournament. I start playing early in the afternoon.


Waiting for the wife, she's at the gym, to go out to dinner. High energy night! Even the stock market looks like it is starting to come back around, based on the AH (after hours) action.

Even the Eiffel Tower looks patriotic!

[MDawg]

BTW the mystery of the brown liquid in the water bottle was solved.

Last night at some point I opened a bottle of Valerian and swallowed a few caps. I must've somehow not swallowed one of them and let it slide back into the water bottle. It dissolved by the time I took a swig later in the nochy.

To test the theory we placed a cap in a small amount of water

and not too long later it had dissolved.

Smelled it, tasted it - yes, that is exactly what ended up in my water bottle.

[MDawg]

SHROUDING at 3:45

Put those two on never mind status!

[MDawg]

I remembered one other "tool" I used to use at BJ. Back then (end of '90s, early 2000s) a lot of the Vegas casinos including also in Tahoe used this electronic machine that would "read" the bottom card to let the dealer know that there was a blackjack. As I recall the device would light up to indicate a blackjack when the dealer inserted the cards into it. But I figured out that at certain tables, the machine would misread a certain hole card and start flashing all the lights when that hole card was inserted. The dealers knew about the malfunction and would then pull the card out and read it manually. But what they didn't know, and I kept my mouth shut about, was that when this happened I already knew what the hole card was. This edge was especially helpful because that hole card, that I would now know was there, was a small card. Of course, this would be best as far as useful information, when there was a ten/face on top, and the flashing occurred, but even with an ace on top, still the info was useful. I used this edge to help me on a lot of play, over a long period of time.


I recall one night in Tahoe a dealer told us, my cousin and I were playing his table, that he didn't "give a huck" as it was his last night.

"Let's win some money."

When the pit boss wasn't looking, he would subtly shake his head to let us know not to take a hit on certain hands, such as when he had a six or such under and a ten/face showing, and we had a hard hand that would normally be hit but that could bust. Unfortunately this wasn't exactly at a high limit table, so the money we won was not huge, but we did win. Of course we tipped him well along the way.

[mickeycrimm]

Quitting while you're ahead is actually a good strategy for an amateur gambler if it means that overall they will bet less money considering all their gambling over their lifetime because they are less exposed to the house edge.

But it is not a strategy that can assist a gambler in achieving long term winnings.

Does your statement above answer the OP's earlier question below?

as long as you understand that the vast majority of the time you will have sessions where you are ahead at some point, and you always leave when ahead, then why is it so hard to accept that quitting when ahead you will win most of your sessions?

Do you not accept that quitting while ahead will result in winning most sessions played?

Coach, can you or anyone else show us the math that says the vast majority of time you will be ahead at some point in a session?

[Half Smoke]

.....................................





The bottom line on MDawg:




First: I'm getting really tired of posting about MDawg and this will probably be my last post which will probably make a lot of people who love MDawg really happy.





There are a great many positive comments about MDawg.

It has been show that it is statistically highly improbable, that a person could play baccarat and win every time, for a great many sessions (not considering edge sorting or cheating).

MDawg has tried to explain this by saying that he bets streaks, presses wins, quits while he's ahead and doesn't chase losses.

Every knowledgeable gambler knows that these methods cannot give a gambler a long term advantage.

For example, probably at least 20 or 25% of craps players press their winning bets. Does anybody really believe that 20 or 25% of craps players are long term winners?

So, the question is do you believe that he wins every time, or do you think he's a bold faced liar?

My reading from the posts here is that posters don't really care if he's a bold faced liar.

He probably is a high roller, and those who like him are so impressed with prime rib dinners, stacks of cash, limo rides, mountains of chips, and luxury hotel rooms they don't really care.

As for myself, I'm not impressed with that bullshit. I'd much rather lay on a beach in Hawaii then be in Vegas. I used to be thrilled about going to Vegas but now, for me, it's gotten really old and tired. If somebody wants to think or post that I'm jealous, that's fine - I could care less. Go ahead and enjoy.

[mickeycrimm]

Those calculations are inaccurate but in any case, as House of Orange points out, not relevant unless flat betting.

MDawg, thanks for posting the terrific pictures of your trips I enjoy viewing them. If you don't mind, please let me know where I made a mistake in my calculations as I am always looking to improve my statistical and mathematical skills. I haven't read anywhere about counting systems for Baccarat, so if you know of any good books or links to Baccarat indexing systems please feel free to post them as I would love to add to my portfolio of player edge casino games .

Best, TP.

Who gives a fuck about your calculations, statistics, mathematical skills, or your losing portfolio?

It’s so obvious you’re just another envious alleged AP. Do you really think anyone reading this thread really care what you’re trying to figure out? All you’re trying to do is come up with some wrong idea of what MDawgs odds are of actually winning. (according to your gifted math abilities) Regardless of you not knowing the facts of every different bet size, which you keep denying and pushing to the side to help achieve your phony goal of just being able to say something like he has a better chance of getting struck by lightning a thousand times in one week then what he’s posting. It's like reading an Op-Ed written by Pelosi, edited by A. Shit.

Fuck you, your math, phony interest in books that could spell out his lucky strategy, etc. etc. etc. You’re a complete fucking envious fool, that no doubt could never afford the luxury’s MDawg enjoys. Maybe if you spent more of your time on a real career you might be able to improve your sad fucking life.

Shouldn’t you be spending more of your time with Shank and the rest of the phony alleged frauds.

For me, it’s guys like you that are so envious and jealous of others who are successful and enjoying life; and if you had the chance would knock out guys like MDawg in a dark alley and rob everything he had on him. Including his watches.

You’re a fucking WOV loser, and it reeks of shit when you post.

Take a fucking walk and stay in your lane. You know, more like waiting for the opportunity to pound some progressive slot at the right time your math tells you to do, hoping it’s you that gets it, then waiting for mailers a month later so you could eat and maybe get a discount on a room.

Fuck you asshole, and stop ruining the thread others finally enjoy reading on these stupid fucking forums which are endlessly loaded with such gifted smart assholes like you.

MDawg could buy and sell your sad pathetic ass. Take it like a man and take a fucking walk.

BH, instead of sniveling all the time why don't you mimic MDawg? There's nothing complicated about what he is doing. Coach can join you. The two of you should be filthy rich in short order. Just copycat MDawg. His baccarat strategy, everything. He's spelled it all out.

You just need to vary your bet like MDawg does. It's easy peasy. Just think, you can live in the lap of luxury with all those comps. And make thousands of dollars per visit.

And look at all the fun you will have rubbing our noses in it with all those pics after you win all that money and use all that comp. Just think of it, the wrap around suite!!!! Glorious.

Please, please, please report back. It should be loads of fun watching you two win, win, win.

Like I said. There is nothing complicated about what MDawg is doing. So get to it.

[tableplay]

MDawg, thanks for posting the terrific pictures of your trips I enjoy viewing them. If you don't mind, please let me know where I made a mistake in my calculations as I am always looking to improve my statistical and mathematical skills. I haven't read anywhere about counting systems for Baccarat, so if you know of any good books or links to Baccarat indexing systems please feel free to post them as I would love to add to my portfolio of player edge casino games .

Best, TP.

Who gives a fuck about your calculations, statistics, mathematical skills, or your losing portfolio?

It’s so obvious you’re just another envious alleged AP. Do you really think anyone reading this thread really care what you’re trying to figure out? All you’re trying to do is come up with some wrong idea of what MDawgs odds are of actually winning. (according to your gifted math abilities) Regardless of you not knowing the facts of every different bet size, which you keep denying and pushing to the side to help achieve your phony goal of just being able to say something like he has a better chance of getting struck by lightning a thousand times in one week then what he’s posting. It's like reading an Op-Ed written by Pelosi, edited by A. Shit.

Fuck you, your math, phony interest in books that could spell out his lucky strategy, etc. etc. etc. You’re a complete fucking envious fool, that no doubt could never afford the luxury’s MDawg enjoys. Maybe if you spent more of your time on a real career you might be able to improve your sad fucking life.

Shouldn’t you be spending more of your time with Shank and the rest of the phony alleged frauds.

For me, it’s guys like you that are so envious and jealous of others who are successful and enjoying life; and if you had the chance would knock out guys like MDawg in a dark alley and rob everything he had on him. Including his watches.

You’re a fucking WOV loser, and it reeks of shit when you post.

Take a fucking walk and stay in your lane. You know, more like waiting for the opportunity to pound some progressive slot at the right time your math tells you to do, hoping it’s you that gets it, then waiting for mailers a month later so you could eat and maybe get a discount on a room.

Fuck you asshole, and stop ruining the thread others finally enjoy reading on these stupid fucking forums which are endlessly loaded with such gifted smart assholes like you.

MDawg could buy and sell your sad pathetic ass. Take it like a man and take a fucking walk.

BH, instead of sniveling all the time why don't you mimic MDawg? There's nothing complicated about what he is doing. Coach can join you. The two of you should be filthy rich in short order. Just copycat MDawg. His baccarat strategy, everything. He's spelled it all out.

You just need to vary your bet like MDawg does. It's easy peasy. Just think, you can live in the lap of luxury with all those comps. And make thousands of dollars per visit.

And look at all the fun you will have rubbing our noses in it with all those pics after you win all that money and use all that comp. Just think of it, the wrap around suite!!!! Glorious.

Please, please, please report back. It should be loads of fun watching you two win, win, win.

Like I said. There is nothing complicated about what MDawg is doing. So get to it.

It's weird, I answer a couple math questions that Half Smoke had and then Blackhole goes apeshit.

[coach belly]

Coach, can you or anyone else show us the math that says the vast majority of time you will be ahead at some point in a session?

Mission did the math and confirmed this earlier on this forum, in response to my questioning about VP.

Search through his posting history and you'll find it.

I'm assuming if it applies to VP, then it applies to Bac as well, since they are both card games.

But, not sure my assumption is correct.

[coach belly]

It has been show that it is statistically highly improbable, that a person could play baccarat and win every time, for a great many sessions (not considering edge sorting or cheating).

MDawg has tried to explain this by saying that he bets streaks, presses wins, quits while he's ahead and doesn't chase losses.

Every knowledgeable gambler knows that these methods cannot give a gambler a long term advantage.

MDawg is reporting his results.

I don't recall him claiming that he has a long term statistical advantage, or that his amount of play even qualifies as the mathematical "long term".

tableplay wrote earlier that a player need only bet an average of 4.7% more on winning hands vs losing hands to win over 800 total hands.

Wouldn't pressing into a streak of 5 or 6 banker or player wins in a row per shoe accomplish that?