Hey Bozo...this Yeungling's for you

[coach belly]

What's up, Bozo?

Probably the best thing MDawg could do to prove the doubters wrong would be to post Win/Loss statements from 2019 from Vegas casinos.

I suggested IF MDawg wants to show us how wrong we are he could post 2019 casino Win/Loss statements

If his W/L statements show a win for 2019, then would you accept that as proof that he won overall for 2019?

If he showed substantial winnings from multiple casinos in 2019, yes I would believe him.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gamb...14/#post760580

[mickeycrimm]

I have a little problem with MDawg's win/loss statements. If you read the first one it says "Estimated Table Games Win/(Loss) $20,600." So which is it? Was it a win of of 20.6K or was it a loss of 20.6K? It doesn't say which one it was. The other two win/loss statements do the same thing. How are we to know whether it's a win or a loss?

[monet]

I have a little problem with MDawg's win/loss statements. If you read the first one it says "Estimated Table Games Win/(Loss) $20,600." So which is it? Was it a win of of 20.6K or was it a loss of 20.6K? It doesn't say which one it was. The other two win/loss statements do the same thing. How are we to know whether it's a win or a loss?

I didn't see them but on mine if the number is inside parentheses (20,600.00) its a loss.
If they have no parentheses its a win.

[mickeycrimm]

I have a little problem with MDawg's win/loss statements. If you read the first one it says "Estimated Table Games Win/(Loss) $20,600." So which is it? Was it a win of of 20.6K or was it a loss of 20.6K? It doesn't say which one it was. The other two win/loss statements do the same thing. How are we to know whether it's a win or a loss?

I didn't see them but on mine if the number is inside parentheses (20,600.00) its a loss.
If they have no parentheses its a win.

So he won. My next question would be how many hands did he play in 2019? With his bet range there might not be anything extroardinary here. Just some positive variance on his part and just some minor losses for the casinos.

[monet]

So he won. My next question would be how many hands did he play in 2019? With his bet range there might not be anything extroardinary here. Just some positive variance on his part and just some minor losses for the casinos.

I am sure it is nothing special in the terms of math.
I think it is very bad to show a win on a win/loss statement no matter what.
A player should learn how to show a loss on paper.
If you have to show a win at one Casino you need to learn how to show losses at other properties.
Some exceptions do apply of course.
Nothing you can do if you hit the MegaBucks that I know of for win/loss statements.

[coach belly]

So he won. My next question would be how many hands did he play in 2019?

This guys estimate was good enough for you before today.

I'm not a close follower of MDawg but I looked it up and he began posting his adventures on WOV on Nov. 5, 2019.

I believe he's had somewhere around 12 trips to Vegas since then which he has documented.

I'm estimating that on each trip he played for about 8 hours in a game that can easily deal out 100 hands per hour.

Now it looks like tableplay's 20 million to 1 shot came in, and you're not so sure?

[mickeycrimm]

So he won. My next question would be how many hands did he play in 2019?

This guys estimate was good enough for you before today.

I'm not a close follower of MDawg but I looked it up and he began posting his adventures on WOV on Nov. 5, 2019.

I believe he's had somewhere around 12 trips to Vegas since then which he has documented.

I'm estimating that on each trip he played for about 8 hours in a game that can easily deal out 100 hands per hour.

Now it looks like tableplay's 20 million to 1 shot came in, and you're not so sure?

I think tableplays math is good for the number of hands he used in the equation. But how do we know MDawg played that many hands? We don't.

Here's another thing. Let's say I played 8 sessions last year. I lost my first 5 sessions for a total of 100K but won my last 3 sessions for a total of 60K. I lost 40K for the year.

Then after the fact I start a thread in the gambling forums and just post up the results for my last three sessions making myself look like a winner.

[coach belly]

Let's say I played 8 sessions last year. I lost my first 5 sessions for a total of 100K but won my last 3 sessions for a total of 60K. I lost 40K for the year.

Then after the fact I start a thread in the gambling forums and just post up the results for my last three sessions making myself look like a winner.

After the fact?...did you read MDawg's trip reports for 2020?

I haven't seen any detailed trip reports before 2020, it seems that the number of hands played per trip for 10 trips in 2019 was estimated based on the number of hands reported for the 2020 trips...800 hands per trip.

Do you accept that MDawg won for both trips in 2020?

[mickeycrimm]

Let's say I played 8 sessions last year. I lost my first 5 sessions for a total of 100K but won my last 3 sessions for a total of 60K. I lost 40K for the year.

Then after the fact I start a thread in the gambling forums and just post up the results for my last three sessions making myself look like a winner.

After the fact?...did you read MDawg's trip reports for 2020?

I haven't seen any detailed trip reports before 2020, it seems that the number of hands played per trip for 10 trips in 2019 was estimated based on the number of hands reported for the 2020 trips...800 hands per trip.

Do you accept that MDawg won for both trips in 2020?

He started the thread at WoV in November, 2019. And he wrote about a 5 week stay. So he has said some things about 2019.

Do I believe he won on both trips in 2020. I really don't care but if he did more power to him. It doesn't matter what I believe.

[Rob.Singer]

And if he doesn't come down with the Kung-flu then he can keep on winning.

[MDawg]

Coach! you're mostly wasting your time. You couldn't convince most of these people that the Pope is Catholic.

As I said, and KewlJ confirmed

I do agree strongly with Mdawg that some of these guys that are continually always hating on AP's and really any one that claims to have made money, it really reveals who they are and it is not a winning player. It is a bitter losing player.

I mean you're dealing with for the most part moribund has-beens,

guys who are slot cheats that scour crappy casinos to find advantage machine play, "AP"'ers who recruit the homeless to skim their freeplay off player cards, or card counting BJ players complaining of diminishing bankrolls.

you think they are going to roll over and admit that MDawg is not only winning but that the value of the comps that he pulled last year alone exceed the pennies they used to scrape?

[redietz]

Coach! you're mostly wasting your time. You couldn't convince most of these people that the Pope is Catholic.

As I said, and KewlJ confirmed

I do agree strongly with Mdawg that some of these guys that are continually always hating on AP's and really any one that claims to have made money, it really reveals who they are and it is not a winning player. It is a bitter losing player.

I mean you're dealing with for the most part moribund has-beens,

guys who are slot cheats that scour crappy casinos to find advantage machine play, "AP"'ers who recruit the homeless to skim their freeplay off player cards, or card counting BJ players complaining of diminishing bankrolls.

you think they are going to roll over and admit that MDawg is not only winning but that the value of the comps that he pulled last year alone exceed the pennies they used to scrape?

"If the dude's gettin' ribs,
He ain't tellin' fibs."

[MDawg]

[mickeycrimm]

Coach! you're mostly wasting your time. You couldn't convince most of these people that the Pope is Catholic.

As I said, and KewlJ confirmed

I do agree strongly with Mdawg that some of these guys that are continually always hating on AP's and really any one that claims to have made money, it really reveals who they are and it is not a winning player. It is a bitter losing player.

I mean you're dealing with for the most part moribund has-beens,

guys who are slot cheats that scour crappy casinos to find advantage machine play, "AP"'ers who recruit the homeless to skim their freeplay off player cards, or card counting BJ players complaining of diminishing bankrolls.

you think they are going to roll over and admit that MDawg is not only winning but that the value of the comps that he pulled last year alone exceed the pennies they used to scrape?

What is more amazing than a bac player, giving up a little more than 1%, can win 40 sessions in a row, is the house, with an edge of a little over 1%, can lose 40 sessions in a row to that player. Think about it, the player at 99% expectation is beating the house which is at 101% expectation.

The player at 99% never has a losing session but the house at 101% never has a winning session. Amazing.

[MDawg]

It's clear that few want to accept that it is possible to win at Baccarat. Which is pretty much as I suspected all along, that my taking the time to post anything would be a waste of time. But I'm the proof that it is possible! to win at Baccarat. My evidence is empirical – that I win! versus theoretical, which is what you offer.

One thing few of you will ever accept is that the house edge isn't what beats people at Baccarat - it could have no house edge and the way high rollers play the game they'd still either win or lose a lot probably about as much as they do now. The house edge is more like insurance for the house against Baccarat flat bettors who would otherwise just always bet one side. If you imagine a mentality of a flip the coin 50-50 no house edge bettor who Always plays until he loses everything, sadly that is the way most high rollers play Baccarat.

In sum, as far as my trip reports, if they were other than completely factual: I'd have a hard time keeping track of all the lies. I am sure I would have tripped myself up by now with two years of posts at WOV if I were presenting fabrications. Also, what would be the point? that wouldn't be a trip report that would be fiction.

Maybe you could consider that I posted the Feb/March 2020 trip over here and at GF as it happened. And then when it occurred to me to login to my Cosmo portal I noticed that they had updated my 2020 win and then I posted the video of my viewing that. That the numbers I posted on that trip as it happened correspond to that win/loss, should tell you something. If I were going to fabricate I'd just claim to be winning tens of thousands every day lol why admit that some days I end up with under a hundred bucks.


Another way to look at it: I've been stock trading and casino gambling going back over two decades. So either I'm made of money and I keep losing and keep going back for more punishment, or I have some kind of talent and have been winning as claimed. As I've mentioned before, there are very few high credit line casino players with high lines who are able to keep them in good standing for years and years; most get blown out within two years.

[mickeycrimm]

It's clear that few want to accept that it is possible to win at Baccarat. Which is pretty much as I suspected all along, that my taking the time to post anything would be a waste of time. But I'm the proof that it is possible! to win at Baccarat. My evidence is empirical – that I win! versus theoretical, which is what you offer.

One thing few of you will ever accept is that the house edge isn't what beats people at Baccarat - it could have no house edge and the way high rollers play the game they'd still either win or lose a lot probably about as much as they do now. The house edge is more like insurance for the house against Baccarat flat bettors who would otherwise just always bet one side. If you imagine a mentality of a flip the coin 50-50 no house edge bettor who Always plays until he loses everything, sadly that is the way most high rollers play Baccarat.

In sum, as far as my trip reports, if they were other than completely factual: I'd have a hard time keeping track of all the lies. I am sure I would have tripped myself up by now with two years of posts at WOV if I were presenting fabrications. Also, what would be the point? that wouldn't be a trip report that would be fiction.

Maybe you could consider that I posted the Feb/March 2020 trip over here and at GF as it happened. And then when it occurred to me to login to my Cosmo portal I noticed that they had updated my 2020 win and then I posted the video of my viewing that. That the numbers I posted on that trip as it happened correspond to that win/loss, should tell you something. If I were going to fabricate I'd just claim to be winning tens of thousands every day lol why admit that some days I end up with under a hundred bucks.


Another way to look at it: I've been stock trading and casino gambling going back over two decades. So either I'm made of money and I keep losing and keep going back for more punishment, or I have some kind of talent and have been winning as claimed. As I've mentioned before, there are very few high credit line casino players with high lines who are able to keep them in good standing for years and years; most get blown out within two years.

Sorry, but you haven't proven anything. Sure, you can have winning trips but varying the bets is not going to make you a winner in the long run...and it is not going to make you win 40 sessions in a row. If you are varying your bets you are using a martingale, reverse martingale, or variants thereof. The martingales have been debunked by countless mathematicians. The problem is your bigger bets have the same expectation as your smaller bets. You cant get away from the house edge on any of your bets. To win 40 sessions is a row your bigger bets have to win at a rate well above expectation.

[coach belly]

To win 40 sessions is a row your bigger bets have to win at a rate well above expectation.

Considering a min bet of X = the amount bet on all losing hands, what should the average bet be on winning hands, such that the player can finish ahead after 800 hands?

The average bet on winning hands should be greater than $1.047 for each $1 bet on losing hands.

[Rob.Singer]

Even MY video poker progression strategy has never won more than 16 straight sessions.

I strongly suspect the reason this guy makes such wild claims about his card game is because he knows it'll get attention. He seems to be too stupid to write about it in any real publication which will get thousands of readers, and which is why he's chosen forums to BS people with. I wouldn't trust or believe any of his so-called casino win/loss statements just like the IRS doesn't for various reasons. And his weak reasoning for posting pictures of cash, jewelry and other nonsense is just him trying to convince himself he's convincing his "fish" about how much he takes from casinos every single time.

He's simply just another California flake who likely drives a leased BMW that he cannot afford.

[coach belly]

Sorry, but you haven't proven anything.

Is there any documentation that MDawg could provide to verify his reported results for 2019 & 2020?

[MDawg]

Coach, I admire your perseverance, but whatever you say, whatever I post, they are going to compare what I claim with their own losing experience or losing theory and say that since it was or should be this way for them, it must be for all.

They are all spouting theory. Not one of them has ever played high stakes Baccarat. I mean Mickey Crimm's casino host story was about missing out on a free meal, a single free meal. That's the level of play these guys are at. My Allegory of the Cave is as apposite as can be. How can you show reality to those who have spent their whole lives in caves looking at shadows on the walls? Ask them how many table limit table game bets they have booked let alone won in their lives.

I mean you're talking about a guy who tosses in "Martingale" as if that is a good way to win, or even ever play, that shows about all these guys know about table game play evidently. It's like they're looking at what I'm doing through thick woolly hoods that barely allow the light through, they are so mystified.

There is nothing wrong with low end machine play, but they should stay in their lanes and not try to comprehend the real thing at the high limit tables unless they have personal long standing experience with it, which not one of them apparently does.