Covid-19 by the numbers

[monet]

I don't think any of us are going to be talking about Gambling or Vegas for some time.
Ex-Ap owns the Whatever's on Your Mind Subsection.

Bad News out of Italy today and don't tell me that they are all old people lol.
600 deaths in one day.
Shutting down parks and other places.
They are now monitoring cell phone activity and publicly telling us they are doing it (Police State).

This is where they are most likely heading in New York.
Perhaps it doesn't hit your state but IMO if this trend continues it will hit the entire country.
This was 5 days ago before they shut down.

New Yorkers need to prepare for a new reality akin to the Great Depression that could include food rationing, Mayor Bill de Blasio warned Monday.
"I'm not saying bread lines, but let's be clear," de Blasio said on MSNBC Monday morning. "This is a pure war footing, right down to rationing if you need it."

They said they would be out policing the situation since the mandate takes effect tomorrow.
People are still out and about at parks and what not.

Oh yeah... don't worry about... just stay indoors, play Atari and this will all be over in 2 weeks lol lol lol.

[mcap]

I am telling you people’s inability to post threads in the appropriate subsections is a metaphor for people’s inability to follow the recommended curve slowing guidelines.

Maybe if we just put New York in the Pauly Shore bubble we will be better off.

[redietz]

Remember that stupid Pauly Shore movie where he’s inside that bubble land with all the scientists or whatever? Yeah put all the old people, and immunocompromised and underlying condition people inside that bubble and the rest of us get the herd immunity. Oh yeah make sure to put Pauly Shore inside that bubble too.

By the way this thread is in the wrong fucking subsection, in my opinion.

I don't think you need to put people in a bubble, but at the peak of flu season, older people or people with compromised or weaken immune systems, I would think take precautions or should and when the flu is at its peak that might include almost shutting down and self isolating.

Now here's another thought (also in the wrong subsection). It seems people get inflection through the openings on their face, nose, eyes and mouth. And technically most are infecting themselves, because the get infected when the virus gets on their hands and fingers and then they touch their nose, eyes face, which we all do subconsciously a million times a day. I guess if someone coughs right in your face you can get it without touching yourself, but most infections come from a persons own fingers and hands.

So how about we wear a face mask/shield type thing for a while. It could be a full helmet like a motorcycle helmet, or it could be a shield like welders use. So every time you go to touch your face, you can't. Boom, you would smack into your shield. LOL. It would also protect against anyone coughing in close proximity. Sounds a little bizarre, but really in a good portion of the country you put on extra "gear", heavy coat, boots, scarf, gloves to go out in winter. So with this you are just going to have to put on your face mask/shield to go out until they figure things out. Then you come home, take your face mask/shield of, clean it, maybe take all your cloths off and take a shower.

I mean , doesn't that beat shutting down the country/world and national/world economy which is going to have consequences for years to come? Wear a face mask and go about life almost normal.

KewlJ, you have to think these things out multi-step. Let's assume the United States does as you suggest, in the name of "preserving the economy." And let's assume there are three waves of this, stretching over 18 months. Do you allow people to just die during each wave?

Next, what happens if the virus mutates and we have a COVID-20 and COVID-21? Do you do the same? What if it preferentially targets the young?

Understand, we have come close to other potential pandemics. There is no guarantee this is the last of this century or this decade or this year. Increasing human population, increasing human population density, and proximity to more animals whose natural habitats have been compromised makes pandemics more likely going forward.

So at what point, 1% mortality or 3% or 5% or 10%, do you make that call in the name of "preserving the economy?"

And you do realize the same arguments could be applied to AIDS?

Finally, viruses can be frozen and survive. This is a longshot, science fiction scenario, but as Antarctica ice melts, viruses from millennia ago could be exposed and propagate. All kinds of interesting things can happen.

The bottom line -- if the current economy and federal government cannot handle this kind of pandemic, you have to put structures in place and commit the resources to protect the population...or you have to radically change the type of economy and change the duties of the federal government. We will see the long-term effects of this. As I said weeks ago --- the health care system and airlines are going to experience large-scale federalization.

[monet]

For years now I haven't agreed with the NY Times but this article explains what we are on the brink of.
We as a world decided to get away from the natural order of Farming and we had a good run but now it is time to pay the piper so to speak.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/u...mentsContainer

[LMR]

By the numbers as Roman (Italian) numerals.

D'COVI-19 ---> 606-19 ---> 6(101)-19 ---> 911 inverted two ways on itself around the 1 between the 0, and hyphen.

---------------------------------------------------

The opposite way to write it in Roman numerals.

CDOIV = 404 = 4(101), was "not found".

---------------------------------------------------

The other two ways to write it in Roman numerals.

DCOIV = 604 = 4*151 = [(40 + 101) + 10)4;
CDOVI = 406 = 14*29 = [(4 + 10)(1 + 1) + 1](10+ 4).

---------------------------------------------------

Oh, yeah, corona + virus + disease, in 2019, ---> Covid-19.

[accountinquestion]

By the numbers as Roman (Italian) numerals.

D'COVI-19 ---> 606-19 ---> 6(101)-19 ---> 911 inverted two ways on itself around the 1 between the 0, and hyphen.

---------------------------------------------------

The opposite way to write it in Roman numerals.

CDOIV = 404 = 4(101), was "not found".

---------------------------------------------------

The other two ways to write it in Roman numerals.

DCOIV = 604 = 4*151 = [(40 + 101) + 10)4;
CDOVI = 406 = 14*29 = [(4 + 10)(1 + 1) + 1](10+ 4).

---------------------------------------------------

Oh, yeah, corona + virus + disease, in 2019, ---> Covid-19.

Yea, but what do you think about Trump?

[LMR]

Some more fun coincidences here, as, and if, I think of them.

https://www.wordhippo.com/what-is/th...ebfc8116e.html

114 = 6*19; 411 = 137[6/(1 + 1)], where 137 is an approximate inverse of the electromagnetic fine-structure constant.

The gravitational fine structure constant, too, fits in here, if taken to be about 0.197 X 10^-60.


About Trump. I guess that "the chickens have come home to roost".

[Rob.Singer]

Too much is being made out of "older people" being the most vulnerable because they're "old". Wrong. They're "most vulnerable" because most of them over 65 have multiple health problems and getting this virus is just like getting hit with pneumonia or the flu. Run this virus by a room full of teenagers with asthma and you'll see them drop at the same rate as old farts with COPD or diabetes.

[BoSox]

KewlJ wrote:

"So near as I can tell, shutting down everything, New York, California, Las Vegas, schools and businesses almost everywhere, isn't really about protecting people, it is just about slowing the spread down."

I believe that the main reason for shutting down everything is just to hopefully buy TIME. This country is currently ill-prepared (in every aspect) to fight this virus on a large scale quickly. It is not about closing down everything for the elderly's sake they are going to die in large numbers anyway. I think Monet has good forsight on the trouble ahead.

[mickeycrimm]

I don't think any of us are going to be talking about Gambling or Vegas for some time.
Ex-Ap owns the Whatever's on Your Mind Subsection.

Bad News out of Italy today and don't tell me that they are all old people lol.
600 deaths in one day.
Shutting down parks and other places.
They are now monitoring cell phone activity and publicly telling us they are doing it (Police State).

This is where they are most likely heading in New York.
Perhaps it doesn't hit your state but IMO if this trend continues it will hit the entire country.
This was 5 days ago before they shut down.

New Yorkers need to prepare for a new reality akin to the Great Depression that could include food rationing, Mayor Bill de Blasio warned Monday.
"I'm not saying bread lines, but let's be clear," de Blasio said on MSNBC Monday morning. "This is a pure war footing, right down to rationing if you need it."

They said they would be out policing the situation since the mandate takes effect tomorrow.
People are still out and about at parks and what not.

Oh yeah... don't worry about... just stay indoors, play Atari and this will all be over in 2 weeks lol lol lol.

I read this morning that the average age of Italians who have died from coronavirus is 81.

[monet]

I read this morning that the average age of Italians who have died from coronavirus is 81.

You have a point at least for now in these early stages.
Do you understand that Italy is on the verge of total collapse?
Completely overworked doctors/nurses who are getting sick.
They have deployed about 114 soldiers and will be on the ground throughout Lombardy.
They claim it is not enough and they will be drafting/deploying more in the near future.
They are basically spying on everyone's cell phone to locate where people are at and the flow of foot traffic.

I get it that you think that the rate of death is a low risk for people under the age of say 70.
I understand that you think it is just another type of flu or perhaps not even as dangerous as the flu.

Our own Doctors and Hospitals are out of supplies and overworked to the brink of exhaustion.

All of that doesn't matter.
As I have said before it appears that everyone is going to get infected anyway so we are going to have to take our chances.
They claim that things won't change with immune systems until at least 60% of the population is infected.
Now if the virus mutates were really screwed but that is besides the point.

The point is that the world is on the brink of a total economic collapse.
From my understanding, if we shut down a month in only NY and CA the GDP will fall so hard that it is basically game over.
One month of just non-essential closures and we might be ok.
Two months and we got little chance of climbing back out of it and if it is 3 or 4 months its catastrophic.

I get that we really can't do anything about it but the virus is whatever.
Its the total economic shutdown of basically the world that is going to spiral us into the abyss.

New Jersey just shut down today.
Delaware is planning on Monday.
You must realize that all the States are going to shut down but they are going too slow.
Most likely because they can't mobilize the Armed Forces fast enough to enforce these laws which most likely is coming.

Ok... lets forget about the economy... They are basically rewriting the laws and somewhat forgoing the constitution on a daily basis.
I am not really panicked because I know it is what it is but I'm not in denial about the situation either.

[kewlJ]

New York has over 10,000 confirmed cases of Coronavirus. Over half (54%) are between age 20 and 49.

[Rob.Singer]

New York has over 10,000 confirmed cases of Coronavirus. Over half (54%) are between age 20 and 49.

And that's because of the very large population of younger foreigners, minorities, and other slugs who live like rats all over NYC. It is not representative of most of the rest of the country.

[LMR]

I read this morning that the average age of Italians who have died from coronavirus is 81.

81 = 9^2 = 9^(1 + 1)

[LMR]

Some more trivia.

Covid ---> I.V. Doc.

The largest simple Roman numeral is 3,999 = 4,000 - 1.

604 = 200 + 404 = (100+ 100) + 4(101); 406 = 404 + 2 = (1 + 1) + 4(101). Confirms the earlier representations of these two numbers in 4's, and 1's, but, with the 4's in the middle.

411 = [6/(1+ 1)](4^2 + 11^2).

[monet]

I read this morning that the average age of Italians who have died from coronavirus is 81.

81 = 9^2 = 9^(1 + 1)

This is fun.
100,000 Police are deployed in Italy to keep people locked in their homes.
France and Spain are deploying a military lock down.

Like I say... not scared of the virus but I am worried about this hostile takeover of the general world population.

https://www.france24.com/en/20200317...on-coronavirus

[tableplay]

I read this morning that the average age of Italians who have died from coronavirus is 81.

81 = 9^2 = 9^(1 + 1)

This is fun.
100,000 Police are deployed in Italy to keep people locked in their homes.
France and Spain are deploying a military lock down.

Like I say... not scared of the virus but I am worried about this hostile takeover of the general world population.

https://www.france24.com/en/20200317...on-coronavirus

It's the excuse they've been waiting for.

[mickeycrimm]

The numbers this morning:

35,345 coronavirus cases in U.S.
473 deaths
That's a 1.3% mortality rate, about 1 in 77 die. But you need to look at your own age bracket to get more refined odds.

Mortality rate is definitely lower because of unknown cases of coronavirus.

[kewlJ]

The numbers this morning:

35,345 coronavirus cases in U.S.
473 deaths
That's a 1.3% mortality rate, about 1 in 77 die. But you need to look at your own age bracket to get more refined odds.

Mortality rate is definitely lower because of unknown cases of coronavirus.

Mickey, your numbers are not right. the mortality rate is not the total deaths divided by total cases. It is total deaths divided by total closed, or resolved cases. In the US, most cases are still active, with many in critical condition. That means many more will die from that "pool".

Look if there are 100 cases, you want to know how many of those 100 will die. So if 2 have currently died and 15 more are in critical care in ICU, calculating that the mortality rate is 2% is crazy. You have to wait until those other cases are resolved, meaning either recover or die.

Go back to that site you are using and exclude the active cases, which has not been completed yet and compare only deaths to recoveries. THAT is eye opening. ONLY china has many more recoveries than deaths and we don't even know if we can believe their numbers. Look at every other country....shocking and scary!

[kewlJ]

Look there is a reason why our government and governments all across the world have chosen to shutdown EVERYTHING and destroy their own and the world economy, which is going to take years to recover from. They wouldn't have made that decision based on a 1% mortality rate. In the US almost 3 million people die each year anyway from everything else. So a 1% mortality rate from this disease would have in effect doubled that. That is unpleasant but not a catastrophe. You don't destroy life on this planet for that.

The actual mortality rate has to be much higher or they believe it will be much higher to make the decisions they have made. Just think of the financial implications. The NBA! NHL, MLB, EVERY casino in this country. Airlines, hotels, Schools. NO, even panicked governments wouldn't choose the decision they did bases on 1%, or even 2%. They KNOW it is going to be much higher.