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Thread: Covid-19 by the numbers

  1. #321
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    6600 tested out of 909,000. That's about 3 quarters of 1 percent

    what is the margin of error on this sample size?
    can somebody show me how to do the math?

    thanks
    I googled "population of montana" to get that number. I got the number tested off of "worldometers.info/coronavirus/" From the home page you click on USA then click on whichever state you want, then click on the [1] on the far right. It will show you how many have been tested. The numbers are continually going up so I think they are updating quickly. Yesterday the number tested in Montana was about 5500.


    thanks, but I meant this:


    if 6600 were tested out of 909,000 and it showed for example that 1% had it

    how close to being accurate would that be for the entire population?

    the margin of error - it could really be for example from .7% to 1.3%

    I was curious about how the math is done to figure that out - and what the margin of error in this case would actually be

    I think when they do it for election polls they go to 2 standard deviations out - of course, it's not 100% accurate - it could be 3 or 4 standard deviations away, but very unlikely
    please don't feed the trolls

  2. #322
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post


    what is the margin of error on this sample size?
    can somebody show me how to do the math?

    thanks
    I googled "population of montana" to get that number. I got the number tested off of "worldometers.info/coronavirus/" From the home page you click on USA then click on whichever state you want, then click on the [1] on the far right. It will show you how many have been tested. The numbers are continually going up so I think they are updating quickly. Yesterday the number tested in Montana was about 5500.


    thanks, but I meant this:


    if 6600 were tested out of 909,000 and it showed for example that 1% had it

    how close to being accurate would that be for the entire population?

    the margin of error - it could really be for example from .7% to 1.3%

    I was curious about how the math is done to figure that out - and what the margin of error in this case would actually be

    I think when they do it for election polls they go to 2 standard deviations out - of course, it's not 100% accurate - it could be 3 or 4 standard deviations away, but very unlikely
    The standard deviation of a .01 (1%) proportion from a sample of 6600 is 0.001224745. This result assumes no bias. However, in reality, people getting tested are more likely to have the virus - they may have decided to get tested because they are experiencing significant symptoms for example.
    Last edited by tableplay; 04-05-2020 at 05:34 PM.

  3. #323
    ...........................






    on the positive side, I definitely value what this man has to say even if he's not a Doctor or a scientist:



    Name:  vfEwHDY.jpg
Views: 2246
Size:  42.4 KB

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/05/bill...-scenario.html
    please don't feed the trolls

  4. #324
    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

    Another day, another drop in projected deaths. And some states are showing they are past the peak.

    This is certainly not good news for certain alarmists on here, and in the media.

    Only a cynic would say everyone of them is a liberal.

  5. #325
    We had our first case of Covid in Montana on March 13. And 25 days later we have 319 cases with 6 deaths. Until yesterday the only cases showing as completed were the death cases. Two days ago we had 281 cases with 6 deaths and 275 cases still active. So all but the death cases were active.

    Yesterday, April 6, was the first day we showed cases completed that didn't end in death. There were 299 cases, 6 deaths, and 287 cases still active. So there were 12 completed cases, six without death, six with death.

    Today, April 7, we have 319 cases, 6 deaths, and 281 cases still active. So there are 38 completed cases, 32 without death, 6 with death.

    March 13 to April 6 is 24 days. So it looks like 24 days for a case to be considered inactive. That means completed cases without death stats lag way behind the death case stats.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 04-07-2020 at 07:01 AM.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  6. #326
    Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

    Another day, another drop in projected deaths. And some states are showing they are past the peak.

    This is certainly not good news for certain alarmists on here, and in the media.

    Only a cynic would say everyone of them is a liberal.
    Too true. Liberals want dead bodies to get back in power, they cannot let Trump win. That's why they favor abortion also. In the end the real battle is God of the Universe, vs god of this world.

  7. #327
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    Originally Posted by House of Orange View Post
    In the end the real battle is God of the Universe, vs god of this world.
    You and Bob21 better go read some more of those books of his to get ready for it. Maybe, the victims of the virus, and chloroquine are the chosen ones.

  8. #328
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    On second thought, I had better get out the old tinfoil hat, and stay off the internet, for a good while. Wouldn't want to catch something worse than the flu. Ha.

    LMR, over and ooooooooooooooout!

    LMR LMR is online now
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  9. #329
    Originally Posted by LMR View Post
    On second thought, I had better get out the old tinfoil hat, and stay off the internet, for a good while. Wouldn't want to catch something worse than the flu. Ha.

    LMR, over and ooooooooooooooout!

    LMR LMR is online now
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    I don't think the hat is enough.
    I prefer something like this...
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  10. #330
    Originally Posted by LMR View Post
    On second thought, I had better get out the old tinfoil hat, and stay off the internet, for a good while. Wouldn't want to catch something worse than the flu. Ha.

    LMR, over and ooooooooooooooout!

    LMR LMR is online now
    Gold
    Join Date
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    Don't let the door hit you where the dog should have bit you.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  11. #331
    Today’s numbers, another 20,000 less deaths projected, which is around 25% less.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

    Liberal heads are exploding. This just can’t be happening to them.

  12. #332
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    We had our first case of Covid in Montana on March 13. And 25 days later we have 319 cases with 6 deaths. Until yesterday the only cases showing as completed were the death cases. Two days ago we had 281 cases with 6 deaths and 275 cases still active. So all but the death cases were active.

    Yesterday, April 6, was the first day we showed cases completed that didn't end in death. There were 299 cases, 6 deaths, and 287 cases still active. So there were 12 completed cases, six without death, six with death.

    Today, April 7, we have 319 cases, 6 deaths, and 281 cases still active. So there are 38 completed cases, 32 without death, 6 with death.

    March 13 to April 6 is 24 days. So it looks like 24 days for a case to be considered inactive. That means completed cases without death stats lag way behind the death case stats.
    Today, April 8, we have 332 cases so far. The number of completed cases has jumped to 141. And we still have only 6 deaths.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  13. #333
    Just picked up on something thats skewing the covid death stats. People dying of other diseases are being counted as covid deaths. 8700 people a day die in the USA. If you die of a heart attack but tested positive for corona then you are recorded as a covid death. This can't help but skew the death stats.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  14. #334
    Well, we got rid of that nutjob Bernie today and all that's left is crazy mixed-up screwball Sleepy Creepy Joe Biden. Trump will have a field day with the senile old clown with the drug addict/dishonorably discharged/corrupt/dead-beat dad of a son.

    Notice how Biden ripped Trump for being "racist" for instituting a shutdown on flights from China....and now he's praising it.

    The debates will be fun....if Biden's wife reminds him when and where they are.

  15. #335
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Just picked up on something thats skewing the covid death stats. People dying of other diseases are being counted as covid deaths. 8700 people a day die in the USA. If you die of a heart attack but tested positive for corona then you are recorded as a covid death. This can't help but skew the death stats.
    I really didn't want to post, but I'll correct this. Mickey, instead of just googling one thing, why don't you check out the flip side? C'mon, man.

    People who die WITH coronavirus are sometimes being counted as having died OF coronavirus, which is incorrect. However, more people are dying from coronavirus or coronavirus-caused problems and NOT being counted because testing is generally not being done on decedents. Cardiac arrest is a common culmination of a coronavirus death, but in many jurisdictions it's going to be listed as "cardiac arrest," not coronavirus, without a test. As I mentioned in another post regarding coroners, coroners in some locales are not assigning coronavirus as cause of death because the decedents were not tested. Now in some other locales, the coroners have leeway to assign it and are doing so. But some of the coroners who have leeway to assign it without testing prefer to not do so because that's a specific diagnosis and there has not been a test.

    Don't take my word for it. Coroners have been interviewed in the last week and their comments can be googled. I happened to follow it some because Pennsylvania coroners were quoted and a friend of mine picks up bodies to be transported to funeral homes in Pennsylvania.

    The truth regarding number of deaths is not going to be known, even ballpark-wise, until a year or two years after the event, which is how the 1918 was tallied. Two years after this is over, the CDC will have some sense of how many died.

  16. #336
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Just picked up on something thats skewing the covid death stats. People dying of other diseases are being counted as covid deaths. 8700 people a day die in the USA. If you die of a heart attack but tested positive for corona then you are recorded as a covid death. This can't help but skew the death stats.
    I really didn't want to post, but I'll correct this. Mickey, instead of just googling one thing, why don't you check out the flip side? C'mon, man.

    People who die WITH coronavirus are sometimes being counted as having died OF coronavirus, which is incorrect. However, more people are dying from coronavirus or coronavirus-caused problems and NOT being counted because testing is generally not being done on decedents. Cardiac arrest is a common culmination of a coronavirus death, but in many jurisdictions it's going to be listed as "cardiac arrest," not coronavirus, without a test. As I mentioned in another post regarding coroners, coroners in some locales are not assigning coronavirus as cause of death because the decedents were not tested. Now in some other locales, the coroners have leeway to assign it and are doing so. But some of the coroners who have leeway to assign it without testing prefer to not do so because that's a specific diagnosis and there has not been a test.

    Don't take my word for it. Coroners have been interviewed in the last week and their comments can be googled. I happened to follow it some because Pennsylvania coroners were quoted and a friend of mine picks up bodies to be transported to funeral homes in Pennsylvania.

    The truth regarding number of deaths is not going to be known, even ballpark-wise, until a year or two years after the event, which is how the 1918 was tallied. Two years after this is over, the CDC will have some sense of how many died.

    And as much I like you Red, you come across as someone who will be disappointed in the numbers. And not sure why a count type used over 100 years is even in the discussion. No count will ever be exact but I believe more deaths will be attributed to it falsely than will be missed.

    Here is a car accident victim being counted because he tested positive after the wreck. As they are not releasing how bad the accident was, we are left to guess on how bad the CV was and how bad the injuries are.

    https://www.wfmz.com/health/coronavi...a00d2beb8.html


    This still will come down to that 99% of the deaths had underlying conditions that contributed to their death. They certainly didn’t deserve to die but the truth will be that most of us had little to worry about other than what goes with a bad case of the flu or cold. No one likes to sit in the bathroom for days, with a fever and headache added on. But that was what most of us faced.

  17. #337
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Just picked up on something thats skewing the covid death stats. People dying of other diseases are being counted as covid deaths. 8700 people a day die in the USA. If you die of a heart attack but tested positive for corona then you are recorded as a covid death. This can't help but skew the death stats.
    I really didn't want to post, but I'll correct this. Mickey, instead of just googling one thing, why don't you check out the flip side? C'mon, man.

    People who die WITH coronavirus are sometimes being counted as having died OF coronavirus, which is incorrect. However, more people are dying from coronavirus or coronavirus-caused problems and NOT being counted because testing is generally not being done on decedents. Cardiac arrest is a common culmination of a coronavirus death, but in many jurisdictions it's going to be listed as "cardiac arrest," not coronavirus, without a test. As I mentioned in another post regarding coroners, coroners in some locales are not assigning coronavirus as cause of death because the decedents were not tested. Now in some other locales, the coroners have leeway to assign it and are doing so. But some of the coroners who have leeway to assign it without testing prefer to not do so because that's a specific diagnosis and there has not been a test.

    Don't take my word for it. Coroners have been interviewed in the last week and their comments can be googled. I happened to follow it some because Pennsylvania coroners were quoted and a friend of mine picks up bodies to be transported to funeral homes in Pennsylvania.

    The truth regarding number of deaths is not going to be known, even ballpark-wise, until a year or two years after the event, which is how the 1918 was tallied. Two years after this is over, the CDC will have some sense of how many died.
    Redietz. C'mon, man. When are you going to revise all those alarmist stats you put up. All those models you followed? They are all revising downward. Its gone from 2.2 million deaths all the way down to 60K. What is that? Like 90%? When are you going to revise your stats, Mr. Alarmist. Or are you going to stick with the bullshit?
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  18. #338
    In another humorous side effect of the CV event is cities like San Francisco now banning the use of multi use bags. So much for the ban of plastic bags. Has to be hippies crying in the shit filled streets over this.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...19/2967950001/

  19. #339
    Alexa, how long will the coronavirus last?

    https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrV...e4NwesOoyGKMM-
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  20. #340
    So California declares itself a Nation State?
    Are they trying to break away from the United States?
    I am sure they will beg for help once the Wild Fires start again... right??

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