Page 1 of 30 1234511 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 595

Thread: Covid-19 by the numbers

  1. #1
    I know there is a whole group here that has injected politics into any discussion about this topic. Let's not do that. Let's just take an analytical look based on the data available.

    I am looking at the following site which is using numbers and data provided by the World Health Organization:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

    These numbers are changing constantly, but as I write this, I am looking at 219,238 total cases. They break that down into two sub sections, active cases (124,529) and closed cases (94,709).

    So lets focus on closed or resolved cases. Total 94,709 of which 85,742 recovered and 8967 resulted in death. That is 9% of the known resolved cases resulted in death. 9%!

    Looking at the active cases (124,529) shows it broken down into two subsets, mild cases of 117, 741 and serious/critical at 6815. That is 5% of active cases at serious/critical with the likelihood that more from the mild case numbers will progress to that serious/critical. So it doesn't look like that death rate of nearly 9% is declining any time soon among active cases.

    9% is much, much higher than what we are being told on TV. I don't know where this 2% number that is often thrown out comes from??

    Now of course this data is based on confirmed cases. That means cases that were tested and confirmed. And there have obviously been problems with lack of testing. So the hope is that there were many more cases that were untested, so unconfirmed where people recovered. God, I hope that is the case. But hope is all it is until we get hard data.

    So while some of you are speculating the death numbers are inflated, until I see otherwise (and I hope I do see otherwise soon), I am thinking just the opposite. Based on the available data, this virus appears to be deadlier than we are even being told. AND that would explain why the US and now world is going to such extremes and risking the world economy. Do you really think our government would go to the extremes they are going to, destroying the economy, if this were just another "flu" that is going to take 30,000, 50,000 or even 100,000 people? No they are seriously worried about 9-10% and 10% of 300 million is 30 million people here in the U.S. They, meaning our government just hasn't broken that to us yet. They are rolling out the bad news a little bit at a time.

    This is a bigger deal than we have been told and this current form of life with shutdowns is going to last much longer than anyone has said. It is going to last until there is a vaccine, confirmed and tested, and that is minimum of a year. That is what I am now preparing for. And if it some how is over in 30 days, you can all laugh at me and call me a doom-sayer or whatever name you want. But that Data I see, leads me to this conclusion.

  2. #2
    I don’t really think this is the appropriate subforum for this thread. Mickey probably disagrees.

    Anyway the 3.5% or whatever fatality number is just the total number of confirmed cases and total number of deaths without regard to “resolved cases.” That number has risen to above 4% with Italy getting hammered. People have speculated, probably being hopeful, that it would decline due to the number of asymptotic or mild symptom cases that are never diagnosed. This thing does seem quite odd in comparison to say, the flu where you know you’re sick, and then this the results seemingly run a huge variation between essentials nothing and severe respiratory issues.
    Last edited by mcap; 03-18-2020 at 08:36 PM.

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I know there is a whole group here that has injected politics into any discussion about this topic. Let's not do that. Let's just take an analytical look based on the data available.

    I am looking at the following site which is using numbers and data provided by the World Health Organization:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

    These numbers are changing constantly, but as I write this, I am looking at 219,238 total cases. They break that down into two sub sections, active cases (124,529) and closed cases (94,709).

    So lets focus on closed or resolved cases. Total 94,709 of which 85,742 recovered and 8967 resulted in death. That is 9% of the known resolved cases resulted in death. 9%!

    Looking at the active cases (124,529) shows it broken down into two subsets, mild cases of 117, 741 and serious/critical at 6815. That is 5% of active cases at serious/critical with the likelihood that more from the mild case numbers will progress to that serious/critical. So it doesn't look like that death rate of nearly 9% is declining any time soon among active cases.

    9% is much, much higher than what we are being told on TV. I don't know where this 2% number that is often thrown out comes from??

    Now of course this data is based on confirmed cases. That means cases that were tested and confirmed. And there have obviously been problems with lack of testing. So the hope is that there were many more cases that were untested, so unconfirmed where people recovered. God, I hope that is the case. But hope is all it is until we get hard data.

    So while some of you are speculating the death numbers are inflated, until I see otherwise (and I hope I do see otherwise soon), I am thinking just the opposite. Based on the available data, this virus appears to be deadlier than we are even being told. AND that would explain why the US and now world is going to such extremes and risking the world economy. Do you really think our government would go to the extremes they are going to, destroying the economy, if this were just another "flu" that is going to take 30,000, 50,000 or even 100,000 people? No they are seriously worried about 9-10% and 10% of 300 million is 30 million people here in the U.S. They, meaning our government just hasn't broken that to us yet. They are rolling out the bad news a little bit at a time.

    This is a bigger deal than we have been told and this current form of life with shutdowns is going to last much longer than anyone has said. It is going to last until there is a vaccine, confirmed and tested, and that is minimum of a year. That is what I am now preparing for. And if it some how is over in 30 days, you can all laugh at me and call me a doom-sayer or whatever name you want. But that Data I see, leads me to this conclusion.
    From what I’ve read it is believed that the MAJORITY of people with the virus will show no symptoms hence a lower mortality rate since most cases are not reported.

    Who knows though, we are definitely in uncharted territory now and anything can happen.

    Hope everyone stays safe out there!

  4. #4
    Originally Posted by mcap View Post
    I don’t really think this is the appropriate subforum for this thread. Mickey probably disagrees.

    Anyway the 3.5% or whatever fatality number is just the total number of confirmed cases and total number of deaths without regard to “resolved cases.” That number has risen to above 4% with Italy getting hammered. People have speculated, probably being hopeful, that it would decline due to the number of asymptotic or mild symptom cases that are never diagnosed. This thing does seem quite odd in comparison to say, the flu where you know you’re sick, and then this the results seemingly run a huge variation between essentials nothing and severe respiratory issues.
    On this forum, everything goes in the Las Vegas section. Just get over it and stop being so anal. If you really can't get over it....start your own forum and do things your way.

    Now back to the topic at hand. You cannot base a mortality rate on active cases. They are unresolved as they stand. The mortality rate is based on 2 numbers from resolved cases. Number of people that recovered and number of people that died. The active cases are incomplete at the moment and cant be considered.

    The best model we have for projecting the future is China, because they are weeks ahead of everyone else. It scares me to use Chinas numbers because I don't know that we can trust China. But lets analyze what we have available.

    China 80,928 cases. Cases closed or resolved: 73,665. recovered: 70,420. deaths 3245. That is a death rate of 4.4%. That is obviously better that 9% (roughly half), but if you extrapolate that over the US population of 300 million, that would be 13.2 million deaths. Again, this is not the 30,000 that die from the "flu".

    Now the good thing about China being weeks ahead, is that we can see their extreme measures of shutting down everything, has slowed the spread to a crawl. And that is why everyone else is trying to follow that model. The problem is what happens when you begin to open up again, which they are just starting to do now. My guess is things are going to go right back where they were. It's going to take a vaccine to prevent millions or hundreds of millions of deaths. Governments around the world wouldn't be willing to shutdown their entire economy and the world economy, if that weren't the case. This is dooms day stuff. Hopefully science and our scientists win the race.

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by mcap View Post
    I don’t really think this is the appropriate subforum for this thread. Mickey probably disagrees.

    Anyway the 3.5% or whatever fatality number is just the total number of confirmed cases and total number of deaths without regard to “resolved cases.” That number has risen to above 4% with Italy getting hammered. People have speculated, probably being hopeful, that it would decline due to the number of asymptotic or mild symptom cases that are never diagnosed. This thing does seem quite odd in comparison to say, the flu where you know you’re sick, and then this the results seemingly run a huge variation between essentials nothing and severe respiratory issues.
    On this forum, everything goes in the Las Vegas section. Just get over it and stop being so anal. If you really can't get over it....start your own forum and do things your way.

    Now back to the topic at hand. You cannot base a mortality rate on active cases. They are unresolved as they stand. The mortality rate is based on 2 numbers from resolved cases. Number of people that recovered and number of people that died. The active cases are incomplete at the moment and cant be considered.

    The best model we have for projecting the future is China, because they are weeks ahead of everyone else. It scares me to use Chinas numbers because I don't know that we can trust China. But lets analyze what we have available.

    China 80,928 cases. Cases closed or resolved: 73,665. recovered: 70,420. deaths 3245. That is a death rate of 4.4%. That is obviously better that 9% (roughly half), but if you extrapolate that over the US population of 300 million, that would be 13.2 million deaths. Again, this is not the 30,000 that die from the "flu".

    Now the good thing about China being weeks ahead, is that we can see their extreme measures of shutting down everything, has slowed the spread to a crawl. And that is why everyone else is trying to follow that model. The problem is what happens when you begin to open up again, which they are just starting to do now. My guess is things are going to go right back where they were. It's going to take a vaccine to prevent millions or hundreds of millions of deaths. Governments around the world wouldn't be willing to shutdown their entire economy and the world economy, if that weren't the case. This is dooms day stuff. Hopefully science and our scientists win the race.

    Not sure in the early days how comprehensively China tallied people who died before getting hospital access.

    The stunning thing, to me, is the inability of people to comprehend that the numbers and models apply to them. People assume they are somehow exempt. The early Fox News stuff was not at all helpful in this regard. Up until three days ago, the majority of polled Republicans thought this was overblown, which parallels the posting here.

    Reminds me of the ghost shirts worn by the Sioux at Wounded Knee. You can believe you're protected right up until the moment the bullets hit your shirt.

  6. #6
    I think we are still operating with insufficient data. Anybody able to operationalize what a resolved case is? Dead is resolved for all, but recovered is measured in different ways. I gather that 2 separate negative tests results are what some are looking for in the US. That can take awhile. Last I saw, the Netherlands had 58 deaths without a single reported recovery. I don't interpret that as it being 100% fatal in Netherlands. I'm sure that a lot more people will die from this, but drawing any conclusions based on recovery data seems really premature. We could learn from China if we could trust their data, but who trusts China's data? Do we have any idea of how many contracted this and recovered without anyone knowing they were infected?
    Nice idea to do a thread about numbers on a board with a bunch of professional gamblers on it. I hope to learn something from it.

    Nice analogy redietz.

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I know there is a whole group here that has injected politics into any discussion about this topic. Let's not do that. Let's just take an analytical look based on the data available.

    I am looking at the following site which is using numbers and data provided by the World Health Organization:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

    These numbers are changing constantly, but as I write this, I am looking at 219,238 total cases. They break that down into two sub sections, active cases (124,529) and closed cases (94,709).

    So lets focus on closed or resolved cases. Total 94,709 of which 85,742 recovered and 8967 resulted in death. That is 9% of the known resolved cases resulted in death. 9%!

    Looking at the active cases (124,529) shows it broken down into two subsets, mild cases of 117, 741 and serious/critical at 6815. That is 5% of active cases at serious/critical with the likelihood that more from the mild case numbers will progress to that serious/critical. So it doesn't look like that death rate of nearly 9% is declining any time soon among active cases.

    9% is much, much higher than what we are being told on TV. I don't know where this 2% number that is often thrown out comes from??

    Now of course this data is based on confirmed cases. That means cases that were tested and confirmed. And there have obviously been problems with lack of testing. So the hope is that there were many more cases that were untested, so unconfirmed where people recovered. God, I hope that is the case. But hope is all it is until we get hard data.

    So while some of you are speculating the death numbers are inflated, until I see otherwise (and I hope I do see otherwise soon), I am thinking just the opposite. Based on the available data, this virus appears to be deadlier than we are even being told. AND that would explain why the US and now world is going to such extremes and risking the world economy. Do you really think our government would go to the extremes they are going to, destroying the economy, if this were just another "flu" that is going to take 30,000, 50,000 or even 100,000 people? No they are seriously worried about 9-10% and 10% of 300 million is 30 million people here in the U.S. They, meaning our government just hasn't broken that to us yet. They are rolling out the bad news a little bit at a time.

    This is a bigger deal than we have been told and this current form of life with shutdowns is going to last much longer than anyone has said. It is going to last until there is a vaccine, confirmed and tested, and that is minimum of a year. That is what I am now preparing for. And if it some how is over in 30 days, you can all laugh at me and call me a doom-sayer or whatever name you want. But that Data I see, leads me to this conclusion.
    I suspect your analysis is way off. We don't have to depend on clearly skewed data that doesn't account for a huge number of mild cases. We have a perfect data laboratory where we know the exact number of cases vs number of deaths: The Diamond Princess cruise ship. Every passenger was tested. The number of positives vs deaths was statistically significant with a 95 percent confidence. Based up the model developed to analyse this data, the death rate when applied to the China demographic is closer to .5%. Still far more deadly than the flu, but nowhere near your apoplectic prediction.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...773v2.full.pdf

    https://www.sciencenews.org/article/...hip-death-rate

    Or you could listen to Admiral Brett Giroir MD,a four-star admiral in the U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corps, who currently serves as the Assistant Secretary for Health.

    http://www.rfi.fr/en/wires/20200305-...ent-or-less-us

    "The best estimates now of the overall mortality rate for COVID-19 is somewhere between 0.1 percent and one percent,"

    "That's lower than you heard probably in many reports, why is this? Number one is because many people don't get sick and don't get tested -- this reflects the overseas experience -- so probably for every case, there are at least two or three cases that are not in that denominator.

    "It certainly could be higher than normal flu, it probably is, but it's not likely in the range of two to three percent."

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by unowme View Post
    I suspect your analysis is way off. We don't have to depend on clearly skewed data that doesn't account for a huge number of mild cases. We have a perfect data laboratory where we know the exact number of cases vs number of deaths: The Diamond Princess cruise ship. Every passenger was tested. The number of positives vs deaths was statistically significant with a 95 percent confidence. Based up the model developed to analyse this data, the death rate when applied to the China demographic is closer to .5%. Still far more deadly than the flu, but nowhere near your apoplectic prediction.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...773v2.full.pdf

    https://www.sciencenews.org/article/...hip-death-rate

    Or you could listen to Admiral Brett Giroir MD,a four-star admiral in the U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corps, who currently serves as the Assistant Secretary for Health.

    http://www.rfi.fr/en/wires/20200305-...ent-or-less-us

    "The best estimates now of the overall mortality rate for COVID-19 is somewhere between 0.1 percent and one percent,"

    "That's lower than you heard probably in many reports, why is this? Number one is because many people don't get sick and don't get tested -- this reflects the overseas experience -- so probably for every case, there are at least two or three cases that are not in that denominator.

    "It certainly could be higher than normal flu, it probably is, but it's not likely in the range of two to three percent."
    First let me say, I hope my analysis is way off. I am not hoping for worse case scenario, just preparing for it.

    As for the Princess Diamond "laboratory experiment", yes that is a good experiment and those numbers are more encouraging, although still incomplete and a small sample size and as those of us that deal with simulations for our gambling livelihood can attest, a small sample size is never a good thing. It often produces results that are skewed and later rendered insignificant. The data and story you quoted from ScienceNews was as of March 12. At that time of the 697 that tested positive, 6 had died, hence the slightly less than 1% death rate.

    Since that story and data is now 6 days, going on 7 days old, I looked for any kind of updated information. The only thing I could find was a FoxNews Story, 1 day later on March 13. At that time a 7th person had died, putting the death rate just a hair above 1%. BUT, 15 people were still in ICU. Not to be looking for the worst, but that means likely the death rate will go higher. I mean this is a freaking new virus, and it appears it can take a while for people to get sick and even longer for people to get well, as evident by 15 STILL in ICU almost 30 days after testing positive. So until those 15 people either recover or ??, the numbers could and likely will go up from that small sample size. I guess still encouraging. 1-2% (or even 3% should most of the remaining ICU patients die) is better than 9%. (but still 10 to 30 times worse than the flu)
    Last edited by kewlJ; 03-18-2020 at 10:58 PM.

  9. #9
    kewlj is being dramatic calling this doomsday stuff. I feel no threat by this thing, yet I still am practicing very strong social distancing. Doomsday doesn't seem like the right word.

    The mortality rate is kept a lot lower when there are machines to hook people up to. The Diamond Princess will be low because everyone was able to get the high quality medical care that insured people expect to get. This won't be the case if you let this thing run its natural course. If people are still in ICU then it is crazy to compare those numbers.

    It also isn't just the death rate. Our medical system will break down and this will impact anyone who needs the hospital. No elective surgeries. Doctors having to make a call on who gets treated and who doesn't. People who paid for insurance won't be able to even use it.

    Imagine that, paying for insurance all your life then finally wanting to use it and hearing 'sorry - can't'.

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    kewlj is being dramatic calling this doomsday stuff. I feel no threat by this thing, yet I still am practicing very strong social distancing. Doomsday doesn't seem like the right word.

    The mortality rate is kept a lot lower when there are machines to hook people up to. The Diamond Princess will be low because everyone was able to get the high quality medical care that insured people expect to get. This won't be the case if you let this thing run its natural course. If people are still in ICU then it is crazy to compare those numbers.

    It also isn't just the death rate. Our medical system will break down and this will impact anyone who needs the hospital. No elective surgeries. Doctors having to make a call on who gets treated and who doesn't. People who paid for insurance won't be able to even use it.

    Imagine that, paying for insurance all your life then finally wanting to use it and hearing 'sorry - can't'.

    News story breaking that we may be looking at 18 months in the U.S. of repetitive waves.

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    News story breaking that we may be looking at 18 months in the U.S. of repetitive waves.
    I've been saying this and even sent a letter to the board of an organization that shut down. I don't understand the end-game. I get slowing the spread, but I hear places saying they are "shutting down for 2 weeks". Well THEN what? I am considering who I may have to lay-off.

  12. #12
    I don't know about KJ's numbers. I was under the impression that there are over 600,000 cases worldwide and 8100 deaths. Seem to me I just seen those numbers yestereday. A couple of other stats I seen: No child under 9 has died from the virus. The mortality rate in the 20 to 39 group is 0.2%, that would be 1 in 500. Italy has the oldest population in Europe.
    KJ fudge packs maxpen up the ass 3 times a day.

  13. #13
    262 new cases in U.S. today.
    I'll miss Alan's profound stupidity.

  14. #14
    I'm not worried. We are Americans for goodness sake. Nothing or no one can defeat us. God bless America. Be safe, Be calm.
    I'll miss Alan's profound stupidity.

  15. #15
    An increase in new cases here in the U.S. is to be expected as we now begin really getting into testing. While it will be alarming to see that number increase dramatically, this could be a good thing, if it is revealing many more people contract the virus, but eventually recover with out much difficulty or medical intervention. This is something sort of hoped for, so it would be great if the data began to bear that out.

    Something a little perplexing to me, is that all along we have been told younger people, almost anyone under 50 was at much less risk. Yesterday, the narrative on TV seemed to change as they were indicating many more younger people were falling seriously sick. If that is the case their is a disconnect between "seriously sick" and the death rate, because I see no numbers of death among younger that reflect that.

  16. #16
    I just saw a segment on TV that seemed to address the very topic I just spoke of. The data showed that over half of patients admitted to ICU here in America so far were under the age of 65, with the age group 20-49 being the largest group at 29%. These numbers are very different from the death rate numbers per age group. This can only mean that while younger people are falling seriously ill, when they get to the hospital and receive treatment, they are responding better. I guess that would sort of be expected.

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by mcap View Post
    I don’t really think this is the appropriate subforum for this thread. Mickey probably disagrees.

    Anyway the 3.5% or whatever fatality number is just the total number of confirmed cases and total number of deaths without regard to “resolved cases.” That number has risen to above 4% with Italy getting hammered. People have speculated, probably being hopeful, that it would decline due to the number of asymptotic or mild symptom cases that are never diagnosed. This thing does seem quite odd in comparison to say, the flu where you know you’re sick, and then this the results seemingly run a huge variation between essentials nothing and severe respiratory issues.
    On this forum, everything goes in the Las Vegas section. Just get over it and stop being so anal. If you really can't get over it....start your own forum and do things your way.
    .
    I will not start my own forum, I will continue trying to make this forum great by encouraging people to post in the appropriate subsections. YOU get over it.

  18. #18
    Kew is massaging the numbers in order to make them come out the way he wants them to, like he always does. A dozen dishonest people could do the same thing resulting in different conclusions. If he were really interested in being truthful he'd have theorized while accepting that there is a very effective flu vaccine. Always with him, pieces and slices and the spinning of selective facts. For attention only. He truly does believe that he's the Mayor of Las Vegas.

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Kew is massaging the numbers in order to make them come out the way he wants them to, like he always does. A dozen dishonest people could do the same thing resulting in different conclusions. If he were really interested in being truthful he'd have theorized while accepting that there is a very effective flu vaccine. Always with him, pieces and slices and the spinning of selective facts. For attention only. He truly does believe that he's the Mayor of Las Vegas.
    Rob, just once could you put a cap on your hate and biased comments because you don't like someone. I am analyzing the numbers as I see them. And others have come to other conclusions and shared things that I haven't considered. I appreciate that. Can't we just have a reasonable discussion about this epidemic that many of us are concerned about without the usual biased takedowns?

    Now could you explain your "effective flu vaccine" comment, because I certainly acknowledge there is an effective flu vaccine. I think that is what it is going to take for us to come out of this Covid-19 problem and that probably means a year of this lockdown / shutdown / social distancing stuff. I fear that will be a year or longer of this status quo.

    Take care of yourself, Rob. Be healthy.

  20. #20
    So one kind of odd thing from Trumps new conference this morning was his mention of Hydroxycloroquin as a possible treatment for Covid-19. Immediately after Trump said this, the FDA guy clarified, saying Hydroxycloroquin has not yet been approved as any kind of treatment for Covid-19, but rather they have just begun to explore if it may have benefits. I can just see millions of people running to online sites, like internationaldrugmart and ordering Hydroxycloroquin.

    So a medical specialist in the rheumatoid arthritis field that frequently prescribes hydroxycloroquin as a treatment for arthritis has stated that Hydrocloroquin may help against covid-19 because it raised the alkaline levels in the body, which may prevent the virus from multiplying as it does at lower PH levels. So anybody buying into that theory may want to consider Alkaline water drops, which raise the alkaline levels. I already use alkaline water drops because it helps with my acid reflux which I have had pretty bad since my second heart surgery. I am not a doctor and not recommending anything, but if you buy into that theory then alkaline water drops would raise PH levels, which might be the similar benefit of hydroyzcloroquin, without ordering medication not yet approved for that purpose.
    Last edited by kewlJ; 03-19-2020 at 10:47 AM.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 1
    Last Post: 03-14-2020, 07:36 AM
  2. Blackjack variance by the numbers
    By kewlJ in forum Las Vegas
    Replies: 65
    Last Post: 04-17-2019, 06:13 PM
  3. Las Vegas Numbers Shopping 101
    By redietz in forum Sports & Sportsbetting
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 02-27-2016, 11:57 PM
  4. What numbers were you trying to hit Dicesetter?
    By Alan Mendelson in forum Las Vegas
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 02-01-2016, 02:56 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •