Covid-19 by the numbers

[tableplay]

You've already downplayed what this virus does so your reasoning is off.

How have I down played what this virus does ? Stating that something might be bigger than something else doesn't mean that the something else is not significant. Love the non Stop strawmen coming from you.

I think some folks are seriously underestimating the ability of the federal government and military to pull off reasonably accurate modeling of outcomes based on variables as they are unveiled.

To think that these are pie-in-the-sky soft models is wishful thinking, which has permeated Americans' general responses regarding this from the beginning. These models have been around for decades, being applied to numerous scenarios just like this.

I think the covid-19 models are reasonable since there are a finite number of variables and they are measured reasonably well. In regards to models of the consequences of a lock down (of this magnitude), I don't think there has ever been a lockdown on a country the size of the United States (and population size) that wasn't communist. The modern world is more complex than ever. There has never been a time where instant gratification is at the level it is at now. I hope these older models can take it. I think that only LaPlace's Demon knows all the variables and what values to plug into them under these conditions - to him, our universe and all other universes are deterministic - but only to him (IMHO). Anyway I guess we will see how accurate the lock down models are over the long run.