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Thread: Covid-19 by the numbers

  1. #281
    Don't mean to get in the middle of this, but there are different strains of the virus.

    Anyway, Fauci said at some point that, when all is said and done, he expects a 1.0 to 1.2% fatality rate, which would be 10 times the normal influenza rate of death. Now that rate is based on everybody in the country being tested -- as in EVERYBODY. The projections are that, by the end of the year, more than a third, and maybe closer to half of Americans will have had it. The old 3% to 4% mortality rate estimates were regarding those who had been tested because they showed serious symptoms.

    So my take on it is that the 3% on up is fatality if you showed obvious symptoms, and the 1.0 to 1.2% is for everybody who gets it, symptoms or not. And there will be a boatload of people getting it.

  2. #282
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Don't mean to get in the middle of this, but there are different strains of the virus.

    Anyway, Fauci said at some point that, when all is said and done, he expects a 1.0 to 1.2% fatality rate, which would be 10 times the normal influenza rate of death. Now that rate is based on everybody in the country being tested -- as in EVERYBODY. The projections are that, by the end of the year, more than a third, and maybe closer to half of Americans will have had it. The old 3% to 4% mortality rate estimates were regarding those who had been tested because they showed serious symptoms.

    So my take on it is that the 3% on up is fatality if you showed obvious symptoms, and the 1.0 to 1.2% is for everybody who gets it, symptoms or not. And there will be a boatload of people getting it.
    Excellent post redietz! This is the same way I read the stats for this virus. It looks like it’s going to be about 10 times deadly than the flu, which is bad but it’s no Armageddon.

    The way things are shaping up it doesn’t look like I’ll need to go to my back up plan, so Kj it doesn’t look like you’ll need to save me that spot in your bunker.

  3. #283
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Don't mean to get in the middle of this, but there are different strains of the virus.
    Hi Redietz, are there mortality rate breakdowns by strain available yet ?
    thank.

  4. #284
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Don't mean to get in the middle of this, but there are different strains of the virus.

    Anyway, Fauci said at some point that, when all is said and done, he expects a 1.0 to 1.2% fatality rate, which would be 10 times the normal influenza rate of death. Now that rate is based on everybody in the country being tested -- as in EVERYBODY. The projections are that, by the end of the year, more than a third, and maybe closer to half of Americans will have had it. The old 3% to 4% mortality rate estimates were regarding those who had been tested because they showed serious symptoms.

    So my take on it is that the 3% on up is fatality if you showed obvious symptoms, and the 1.0 to 1.2% is for everybody who gets it, symptoms or not. And there will be a boatload of people getting it.
    Excellent post redietz! This is the same way I read the stats for this virus. It looks like it’s going to be about 10 times deadly than the flu, which is bad but it’s no Armageddon.

    The way things are shaping up it doesn’t look like I’ll need to go to my back up plan, so Kj it doesn’t look like you’ll need to save me that spot in your bunker.

    Well, the only problem with the projections is that if you have a 1% mortality and 100 million people get it, and those are the low end figures, well, you can do the math. Not Armageddon, but life is not going to be the same.

    Plus it's likely to come back. Plus there are multiple strains, so (as AndrewG said, I think) COVID-20 might be just around the corner.

    If there are multiple waves, and there will be given the slipshod nature of state-patching precautions, we better hope there aren't mutations. Because each go-round will be the Darwinian equivalent of casino churn.

  5. #285
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Don't mean to get in the middle of this, but there are different strains of the virus.
    Hi Redietz, are there mortality rate breakdowns by strain available yet ?
    thank.
    Not that I'm aware. I don't even think the multiple-strain stuff has made the general media yet. A friend of my girlfriend was recruited to work on it; that's the only reason I know this. The U.S. seems to be almost all one strain. I think there's seven or eight. I think that means when there is a vaccine, and who knows how long that'll take, the U.S. should do well in terms of vaccine efficacy if it maintains it's more-or-less one strain status.

  6. #286
    Coronavirus: Are there two strains and is one more deadly?

    This “selection pressure” could lead to the outbreak of a new strain, says Jones. This is the case with seasonal flu – new variants crop up every year that can infect people whether or not they’ve had flu in the past.

    We could see the same pattern emerge for the new coronavirus in the coming years, says Jones. “I don’t see it going away any time soon.”
    Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article...#ixzz6Ih46uQaO

  7. #287
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I don't even think the multiple-strain stuff has made the general media yet. A friend of my girlfriend was recruited to work on it; that's the only reason I know this. The U.S. seems to be almost all one strain. I think there's seven or eight. I think that means when there is a vaccine, and who knows how long that'll take, the U.S. should do well in terms of vaccine efficacy if it maintains it's more-or-less one strain status.
    What are you talking about?
    The 8 strains circling the globe has been reported for awhile now.
    It is pretty common knowledge.
    You can google it and all sorts of articles pop up.
    This one was published on March 27, 2020.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...on/5080571002/

    Published March 30,2020.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-...s-doctors-say/
    Attached Images Attached Images  

  8. #288
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Don't mean to get in the middle of this, but there are different strains of the virus.

    Anyway, Fauci said at some point that, when all is said and done, he expects a 1.0 to 1.2% fatality rate, which would be 10 times the normal influenza rate of death. Now that rate is based on everybody in the country being tested -- as in EVERYBODY. The projections are that, by the end of the year, more than a third, and maybe closer to half of Americans will have had it. The old 3% to 4% mortality rate estimates were regarding those who had been tested because they showed serious symptoms.

    So my take on it is that the 3% on up is fatality if you showed obvious symptoms, and the 1.0 to 1.2% is for everybody who gets it, symptoms or not. And there will be a boatload of people getting it.
    Excellent post redietz! This is the same way I read the stats for this virus. It looks like it’s going to be about 10 times deadly than the flu, which is bad but it’s no Armageddon.

    The way things are shaping up it doesn’t look like I’ll need to go to my back up plan, so Kj it doesn’t look like you’ll need to save me that spot in your bunker.

    Well, the only problem with the projections is that if you have a 1% mortality and 100 million people get it, and those are the low end figures, well, you can do the math. Not Armageddon, but life is not going to be the same.

    Plus it's likely to come back. Plus there are multiple strains, so (as AndrewG said, I think) COVID-20 might be just around the corner.

    If there are multiple waves, and there will be given the slipshod nature of state-patching precautions, we better hope there aren't mutations. Because each go-round will be the Darwinian equivalent of casino churn.
    Redietz, I’m still not seeing it as that bad. It mostly takes at the old and people who have compromised systems. And even with the old, most recover. I read where only 15% die that are over 85. Most recover. I mean at 85, a lot of things take out these people.

    I get other middle age people also die from it, more frequently than with the flu. But it’s still not a lot, and most have some underlining medical condition.

    I’ve read too where it’s the amount of virus you get that can cause problems, and death, so the key is to not take a sneeze from a sick person head on. Duck when you see it coming your way. This was from a New York Times article.

    Here’s an interesting fact I doubt most people know. The famous Chinese doctor who died from it early on treating the first patients also gave it to both of his parents. They lived and never got seriously sick. He was 41 and died, while his parents are probably at least 20 years older than him and lived. Why did he die and they lived? Probably because he got super high doses of it treating his patients and his system couldn’t handle it, while his parents got smaller doses of it, so their systems could handle it.

    The key is to catch this thing in small doses so your body can recover from it and you’ll develop immunity to it. That’s my plan. That way I don’t have to worry about sharing a bunker with KJ.

  9. #289
    Watch the media downplay coronavirus:

    https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrW...Pcg7jzz7XpDmc-
    "There is no difference between communism and socialism, except in the means of achieving the same ultimate end: communism proposes to enslave men by force, socialism--by vote. It is merely the difference between murder and suicide." Ayn Rand

  10. #290
    Here's a better link to it:

    "There is no difference between communism and socialism, except in the means of achieving the same ultimate end: communism proposes to enslave men by force, socialism--by vote. It is merely the difference between murder and suicide." Ayn Rand

  11. #291
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I don't even think the multiple-strain stuff has made the general media yet. A friend of my girlfriend was recruited to work on it; that's the only reason I know this. The U.S. seems to be almost all one strain. I think there's seven or eight. I think that means when there is a vaccine, and who knows how long that'll take, the U.S. should do well in terms of vaccine efficacy if it maintains it's more-or-less one strain status.
    What are you talking about?
    The 8 strains circling the globe has been reported for awhile now.
    It is pretty common knowledge.
    You can google it and all sorts of articles pop up.
    This one was published on March 27, 2020.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...on/5080571002/

    Published March 30,2020.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-...s-doctors-say/
    I saw the map you're showing, monet, but I haven't read any scientific follow-ups for what it all means regarding vaccines, how the strains differ in effects, rates of mutation, or anything like that. I haven't seen any interviews, either town halls or with the task force, where anybody's addressed it. Why do you think that might be?

    The Seattle Times article is March 30, and they don't seem to have any answers at the moment, either.

  12. #292
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I don't even think the multiple-strain stuff has made the general media yet. A friend of my girlfriend was recruited to work on it; that's the only reason I know this. The U.S. seems to be almost all one strain. I think there's seven or eight. I think that means when there is a vaccine, and who knows how long that'll take, the U.S. should do well in terms of vaccine efficacy if it maintains it's more-or-less one strain status.
    What are you talking about?
    The 8 strains circling the globe has been reported for awhile now.
    It is pretty common knowledge.
    You can google it and all sorts of articles pop up.
    This one was published on March 27, 2020.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...on/5080571002/

    Published March 30,2020.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-...s-doctors-say/
    I saw the map you're showing, monet, but I haven't read any scientific follow-ups for what it all means regarding vaccines, how the strains differ in effects, rates of mutation, or anything like that. I haven't seen any interviews, either town halls or with the task force, where anybody's addressed it. Why do you think that might be?

    The Seattle Times article is March 30, and they don't seem to have any answers at the moment, either.
    I’ve read they are all about the same. The reason this is so difficult to predict is because there’s too many variables to analyze. One of the biggest ones is the dose amount you get. There’s a good article in the New York Times on April 1. The title is “ These Conoravirus exposures might be the most dangerous”. The subheading says, “As with any other poison, viruses are usually deadlier in larger amounts.”

    I would post it if I knew how on my phone but people should be able to look it up. It’s an interesting article.

  13. #293
    I have followed the dosing material some. It ties together. The people who are in enclosed spaces with a lot of projectile type explosion into the air, like at church meetings or choir practices where everyone's singing or shouting, this is where the worst of it occurs. I also read that in those types of environments, some people can expel more than a hundred times what others expel, so it varies enormously person to person. A worst case scenario would be a choir practice with a powerful singer with the virus standing close to you.

    Political rallies would be a killer. And, tying into the Trump call today, athletic events would be real killers, too.

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