Covid-19 by the numbers

[redietz]

Just picked up on something thats skewing the covid death stats. People dying of other diseases are being counted as covid deaths. 8700 people a day die in the USA. If you die of a heart attack but tested positive for corona then you are recorded as a covid death. This can't help but skew the death stats.

I really didn't want to post, but I'll correct this. Mickey, instead of just googling one thing, why don't you check out the flip side? C'mon, man.

People who die WITH coronavirus are sometimes being counted as having died OF coronavirus, which is incorrect. However, more people are dying from coronavirus or coronavirus-caused problems and NOT being counted because testing is generally not being done on decedents. Cardiac arrest is a common culmination of a coronavirus death, but in many jurisdictions it's going to be listed as "cardiac arrest," not coronavirus, without a test. As I mentioned in another post regarding coroners, coroners in some locales are not assigning coronavirus as cause of death because the decedents were not tested. Now in some other locales, the coroners have leeway to assign it and are doing so. But some of the coroners who have leeway to assign it without testing prefer to not do so because that's a specific diagnosis and there has not been a test.

Don't take my word for it. Coroners have been interviewed in the last week and their comments can be googled. I happened to follow it some because Pennsylvania coroners were quoted and a friend of mine picks up bodies to be transported to funeral homes in Pennsylvania.

The truth regarding number of deaths is not going to be known, even ballpark-wise, until a year or two years after the event, which is how the 1918 was tallied. Two years after this is over, the CDC will have some sense of how many died.

Redietz. C'mon, man. When are you going to revise all those alarmist stats you put up. All those models you followed? They are all revising downward. Its gone from 2.2 million deaths all the way down to 60K. What is that? Like 90%? When are you going to revise your stats, Mr. Alarmist. Or are you going to stick with the bullshit?

I assume you wanted a response, so I'll oblige. If you'll go back and see what prompted some people to be upset, it was when Boz mentioned the Trade Tower deaths, and I said this should sprint by it by a factor of 30. That was actually in line with the optimistic versions of the models that said, if distancing was enforced nationwide, we were looking at 80K to 85K deaths. After the first two meteoric days of New York problems, I said "I was wrong" (regarding the 80-85K deaths), and I had been way too optimistic. It was a couple of days later that Trump gave the 100K figure in a task force briefing, which was followed by a revision less than 36 hours later to between 100K and 200K. Now if you are going to say that I was somehow wrong at that point in time, you realize you have to say that Trump was more wrong.

Some things to consider, again, is that the 60K numbers are framed the way they are for reasons, probably to push for business openings. Those numbers are NOT for 2020. Those numbers are NOT for the entire pandemic, which may last several years. Those numbers ARE for up-to-August 4th estimates.

The virus doesn't know it's supposed to go vacation starting August 4th. If you'll notice, the beginning of August leaves five more months in the year. Good luck with the end date for the pandemic. Good luck with no second and third waves. If you'll also notice, you'll see that the 1918 pandemic totals are for the entire pandemic, which stretched for the better part of three years, I believe.

Mickey, you're stacking of stats with this is really just about as bad as MDawg counting the sessions that he wins. It's that bad. People dying in October do count, you know.

[mickeycrimm]

I really didn't want to post, but I'll correct this. Mickey, instead of just googling one thing, why don't you check out the flip side? C'mon, man.

People who die WITH coronavirus are sometimes being counted as having died OF coronavirus, which is incorrect. However, more people are dying from coronavirus or coronavirus-caused problems and NOT being counted because testing is generally not being done on decedents. Cardiac arrest is a common culmination of a coronavirus death, but in many jurisdictions it's going to be listed as "cardiac arrest," not coronavirus, without a test. As I mentioned in another post regarding coroners, coroners in some locales are not assigning coronavirus as cause of death because the decedents were not tested. Now in some other locales, the coroners have leeway to assign it and are doing so. But some of the coroners who have leeway to assign it without testing prefer to not do so because that's a specific diagnosis and there has not been a test.

Don't take my word for it. Coroners have been interviewed in the last week and their comments can be googled. I happened to follow it some because Pennsylvania coroners were quoted and a friend of mine picks up bodies to be transported to funeral homes in Pennsylvania.

The truth regarding number of deaths is not going to be known, even ballpark-wise, until a year or two years after the event, which is how the 1918 was tallied. Two years after this is over, the CDC will have some sense of how many died.

Redietz. C'mon, man. When are you going to revise all those alarmist stats you put up. All those models you followed? They are all revising downward. Its gone from 2.2 million deaths all the way down to 60K. What is that? Like 90%? When are you going to revise your stats, Mr. Alarmist. Or are you going to stick with the bullshit?

I assume you wanted a response, so I'll oblige. If you'll go back and see what prompted some people to be upset, it was when Boz mentioned the Trade Tower deaths, and I said this should sprint by it by a factor of 30. That was actually in line with the optimistic versions of the models that said, if distancing was enforced nationwide, we were looking at 80K to 85K deaths. After the first two meteoric days of New York problems, I said "I was wrong" (regarding the 80-85K deaths), and I had been way too optimistic. It was a couple of days later that Trump gave the 100K figure in a task force briefing, which was followed by a revision less than 36 hours later to between 100K and 200K. Now if you are going to say that I was somehow wrong at that point in time, you realize you have to say that Trump was more wrong.

Some things to consider, again, is that the 60K numbers are framed the way they are for reasons, probably to push for business openings. Those numbers are NOT for 2020. Those numbers are NOT for the entire pandemic, which may last several years. Those numbers ARE for up-to-August 4th estimates.

The virus doesn't know it's supposed to go vacation starting August 4th. If you'll notice, the beginning of August leaves five more months in the year. Good luck with the end date for the pandemic. Good luck with no second and third waves. If you'll also notice, you'll see that the 1918 pandemic totals are for the entire pandemic, which stretched for the better part of three years, I believe.

Mickey, you're stacking of stats with this is really just about as bad as MDawg counting the sessions that he wins. It's that bad. People dying in October do count, you know.

Your whole post is just shifting numbers around in a smoke & mirrors attempt to not look bad for your outrageous projections.

[mickeycrimm]

Roseland Community Hospital in Chicago is reporting 30% to 50% of people tested are positive for coronavirus anti-bodies while only 10% to 20% are testing positive for the virus. They test 400 to 600 people a day.

I wonder what that does to the stats.

[The Boz]

Roseland Community Hospital in Chicago is reporting 30% to 50% of people tested are positive for coronavirus anti-bodies while only 10% to 20% are testing positive for the virus. They test 400 to 600 people a day.

I wonder what that does to the stats.

I believe this is going to go back to the theory that many more of us already had it and never knew it. Or felt the symptoms were not worth going to the hospital, or to get tested over. Until we get widespread use of testing to show who has the anti bodies, we won’t know.

A great Governor like Ron DeSanctis in Florida is bashed by the liberal lunatics at the HP for saying no one under 25 has died. Of course there are 5 deaths “contributed” to it so it’s a cover story for them. 5 people, or about a 25% of the DAILY deaths from Heroin OD’s in the US.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/ron-d...b6d641a6bd1df2

Bottom line is better days are ahead, this was blown way out of proportion and the damage done to the economy was far worse than the damage done by the virus. And you can see it has liberals scared and figuring out how to best use this against Trump and Republicans in November. Along with hiding a senile candidate from the public before the election.

It’s the only reason for seeing how liberals want the country shut down and Republicans want to allow citizens their freedoms to improve their lives.

[The Boz]

I meant to say 2.5% of the over 200 deaths a day from Opioids each day.

But we didn’t shut the country down because some junkies are dying each day.

[redietz]

Redietz. C'mon, man. When are you going to revise all those alarmist stats you put up. All those models you followed? They are all revising downward. Its gone from 2.2 million deaths all the way down to 60K. What is that? Like 90%? When are you going to revise your stats, Mr. Alarmist. Or are you going to stick with the bullshit?

I assume you wanted a response, so I'll oblige. If you'll go back and see what prompted some people to be upset, it was when Boz mentioned the Trade Tower deaths, and I said this should sprint by it by a factor of 30. That was actually in line with the optimistic versions of the models that said, if distancing was enforced nationwide, we were looking at 80K to 85K deaths. After the first two meteoric days of New York problems, I said "I was wrong" (regarding the 80-85K deaths), and I had been way too optimistic. It was a couple of days later that Trump gave the 100K figure in a task force briefing, which was followed by a revision less than 36 hours later to between 100K and 200K. Now if you are going to say that I was somehow wrong at that point in time, you realize you have to say that Trump was more wrong.

Some things to consider, again, is that the 60K numbers are framed the way they are for reasons, probably to push for business openings. Those numbers are NOT for 2020. Those numbers are NOT for the entire pandemic, which may last several years. Those numbers ARE for up-to-August 4th estimates.

The virus doesn't know it's supposed to go vacation starting August 4th. If you'll notice, the beginning of August leaves five more months in the year. Good luck with the end date for the pandemic. Good luck with no second and third waves. If you'll also notice, you'll see that the 1918 pandemic totals are for the entire pandemic, which stretched for the better part of three years, I believe.

Mickey, you're stacking of stats with this is really just about as bad as MDawg counting the sessions that he wins. It's that bad. People dying in October do count, you know.

Your whole post is just shifting numbers around in a smoke & mirrors attempt to not look bad for your outrageous projections.

I'm sure had you found any "outrageous projections" by me regarding how many people I thought would die, you would have quoted them, eh mickey?

It was the president who generated that 2.2 million figure, not me, my friend. You might want to attribute that quote properly.

And further, regarding your propensity to "shift numbers around," let me know when you find a quote by me regarding death tolls that uses phrases like "first wave" or "by August 4th." There won't be any. This is new lingo to cheerlead for a quick "return to normalcy."

[The Boz]

I assume you wanted a response, so I'll oblige. If you'll go back and see what prompted some people to be upset, it was when Boz mentioned the Trade Tower deaths, and I said this should sprint by it by a factor of 30. That was actually in line with the optimistic versions of the models that said, if distancing was enforced nationwide, we were looking at 80K to 85K deaths. After the first two meteoric days of New York problems, I said "I was wrong" (regarding the 80-85K deaths), and I had been way too optimistic. It was a couple of days later that Trump gave the 100K figure in a task force briefing, which was followed by a revision less than 36 hours later to between 100K and 200K. Now if you are going to say that I was somehow wrong at that point in time, you realize you have to say that Trump was more wrong.

Some things to consider, again, is that the 60K numbers are framed the way they are for reasons, probably to push for business openings. Those numbers are NOT for 2020. Those numbers are NOT for the entire pandemic, which may last several years. Those numbers ARE for up-to-August 4th estimates.

The virus doesn't know it's supposed to go vacation starting August 4th. If you'll notice, the beginning of August leaves five more months in the year. Good luck with the end date for the pandemic. Good luck with no second and third waves. If you'll also notice, you'll see that the 1918 pandemic totals are for the entire pandemic, which stretched for the better part of three years, I believe.

Mickey, you're stacking of stats with this is really just about as bad as MDawg counting the sessions that he wins. It's that bad. People dying in October do count, you know.

Your whole post is just shifting numbers around in a smoke & mirrors attempt to not look bad for your outrageous projections.

I'm sure had you found any "outrageous projections" by me regarding how many people I thought would die, you would have quoted them, eh mickey?

It was the president who generated that 2.2 million figure, not me, my friend. You might want to attribute that quote properly.

And further, regarding your propensity to "shift numbers around," let me know when you find a quote by me regarding death tolls that uses phrases like "first wave" or "by August 4th." There won't be any. This is new lingo to cheerlead for a quick "return to normalcy."

It makes me sad you seem to be against a “return to normalcy”. In fact you seem to be rooting against it.

Can it be for anything other than long term political reasons? This is where the left has lead it’s supporters in this great country.

Truly sad.

[mickeycrimm]

I assume you wanted a response, so I'll oblige. If you'll go back and see what prompted some people to be upset, it was when Boz mentioned the Trade Tower deaths, and I said this should sprint by it by a factor of 30. That was actually in line with the optimistic versions of the models that said, if distancing was enforced nationwide, we were looking at 80K to 85K deaths. After the first two meteoric days of New York problems, I said "I was wrong" (regarding the 80-85K deaths), and I had been way too optimistic. It was a couple of days later that Trump gave the 100K figure in a task force briefing, which was followed by a revision less than 36 hours later to between 100K and 200K. Now if you are going to say that I was somehow wrong at that point in time, you realize you have to say that Trump was more wrong.

Some things to consider, again, is that the 60K numbers are framed the way they are for reasons, probably to push for business openings. Those numbers are NOT for 2020. Those numbers are NOT for the entire pandemic, which may last several years. Those numbers ARE for up-to-August 4th estimates.

The virus doesn't know it's supposed to go vacation starting August 4th. If you'll notice, the beginning of August leaves five more months in the year. Good luck with the end date for the pandemic. Good luck with no second and third waves. If you'll also notice, you'll see that the 1918 pandemic totals are for the entire pandemic, which stretched for the better part of three years, I believe.

Mickey, you're stacking of stats with this is really just about as bad as MDawg counting the sessions that he wins. It's that bad. People dying in October do count, you know.

Your whole post is just shifting numbers around in a smoke & mirrors attempt to not look bad for your outrageous projections.

I'm sure had you found any "outrageous projections" by me regarding how many people I thought would die, you would have quoted them, eh mickey?

It was the president who generated that 2.2 million figure, not me, my friend. You might want to attribute that quote properly.

And further, regarding your propensity to "shift numbers around," let me know when you find a quote by me regarding death tolls that uses phrases like "first wave" or "by August 4th." There won't be any. This is new lingo to cheerlead for a quick "return to normalcy."

Dammit, redietz, you just won't let the political crap go. Trump is not a fucking doctor. I'll say it again. Trump is not a fucking doctor. He can only go by what advisers tell him. Fauci was on record in February telling everyone to not worry about coronavirus. But you blame Trump for downplaying the virus when all he could do is go by what these advisers tell him. Trump is not a doctor. Repeat. Trump is not a doctor. So who made the big shift? FAUCI!!! So then Trump has to make the shift. Trump is not a doctor. Repeat. Trump is not a doctor. BUT YOU, REDIETZ, EXPECT TRUMP TO BE A DOCTOR!!!!

Trump is going to clean your lefty ass up in November.

[mickeycrimm]

We had our first case of Covid in Montana on March 13. And 25 days later we have 319 cases with 6 deaths. Until yesterday the only cases showing as completed were the death cases. Two days ago we had 281 cases with 6 deaths and 275 cases still active. So all but the death cases were active.

Yesterday, April 6, was the first day we showed cases completed that didn't end in death. There were 299 cases, 6 deaths, and 287 cases still active. So there were 12 completed cases, six without death, six with death.

Today, April 7, we have 319 cases, 6 deaths, and 281 cases still active. So there are 38 completed cases, 32 without death, 6 with death.

March 13 to April 6 is 24 days. So it looks like 24 days for a case to be considered inactive. That means completed cases without death stats lag way behind the death case stats.

Today, April 8, we have 332 cases so far. The number of completed cases has jumped to 141. And we still have only 6 deaths.

It's April 10 and we have 365 cases in Montana. Still just 6 deaths. We haven't had a death in several days. It wasn't until April 6 that completed cases of those that lived began to show. We're up to 159 completed.

There have been just 41 hospitalizations so far out of the 365 cases. The emergency rooms are ghost towns here.

[mickeycrimm]

Interesting article

https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrW...EePFtaQjciLNA-

[The Boz]

Interesting article

https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrW...EePFtaQjciLNA-

It is certainly a more common sense approach to the Virus. Protect the most at risk while still not destroying the country. Unfortunately it wouldn’t be allowed here because of 1 main factor.

We have a divided country politically and 1 side sees this as a huge opportunity to get rid of a President who on a daily basis was destroying their party and its beliefs through American success. This to me is by far the largest reason, it isn’t even close. Look at the media and the people all of us know are liberals. They would ruin the countries economy to get Trump, they don’t even hid it. And this gave them th perfect opportunity to push their agenda.

[mickeycrimm]

Interesting article

https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrW...EePFtaQjciLNA-

It is certainly a more common sense approach to the Virus. Protect the most at risk while still not destroying the country. Unfortunately it wouldn’t be allowed here because of 1 main factor.

We have a divided country politically and 1 side sees this as a huge opportunity to get rid of a President who on a daily basis was destroying their party and its beliefs through American success. This to me is by far the largest reason, it isn’t even close. Look at the media and the people all of us know are liberals. They would ruin the countries economy to get Trump, they don’t even hid it. And this gave them th perfect opportunity to push their agenda.

There were libtards on twitter that were giddy with glee when the stock market tanked.

[dannyj]

Interesting article

https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrW...EePFtaQjciLNA-

It is certainly a more common sense approach to the Virus. Protect the most at risk while still not destroying the country. Unfortunately it wouldn’t be allowed here because of 1 main factor.

We have a divided country politically and 1 side sees this as a huge opportunity to get rid of a President who on a daily basis was destroying their party and its beliefs through American success. This to me is by far the largest reason, it isn’t even close. Look at the media and the people all of us know are liberals. They would ruin the countries economy to get Trump, they don’t even hid it. And this gave them th perfect opportunity to push their agenda.

There were libtards on twitter that were giddy with glee when the stock market tanked.

Geez, talk about rooting against one's best interest.

[LMR]

All you've done is prove my point. You think you are a bad ass troller but you are actually a candy ass troller. I've told you a million times. It goes back a long ways. Hit me and I will hit you harder. For all your talk about not liking it you keep quoting it. You must actually like it.

The real trick is finding those big edge plays. I know how to find them. Most people don't. But there are some, not all, here on VCT that know how to find them.

You fucking stupid assholes. Just turn of the computer, for a few minutes, to watch those alligator mouths fly up those hummingbird asses. Hehehe.

There were libtards on twitter that were giddy with glee when the stock market tanked.

Well, thank you, Messrs. Bozo, and Crimm for keeping this thread alive, and, right on cue.

The latest numbers are in. To recap, a bit, from last time.

Well, for the "purists" here, I was playing around some more with these numbers of letters of the alphabet. It appears that things go together in sequence with the numbers of the letters of 6, 6 ---> f.u.; 9, 9, 11 ---> r.i.p; 11, 0 ---> k.o.; and 0, 11 ---> o.k; back to 11, 9, 9 ---> r.i.p.; and 6, 6 ---> f.u.

In other words, "F.u., r.i.p." "K.o.!" "O.k.?" "R.i.p, f.u." The corresponding numbers 6,6.....9,9.....11,11.....0, 0.....11,11.....9,9.....6, 6 ---> 6, 9, 1, 0 , 1, 9, 6 ---> 6, 9, 1, 1 - 1, 1, 9, 6 ---> 197 = 1 + 14^2 ---> 1 + 14^(1 + 1) ---> 11411, that number, from before, which relates to the gravitational fine-structure constant. Amazing.

Well, I went to play around, last evening, with a few more interchanged bits of about ten different phrases. I wanted to look into the gematria "measurements" of these bits of phrase. It's a "measure" that I never really looked at before. Just for "fun", of course. The only other, similar "measure" I used, years ago, was the simple mirroring of the alphabet. A = 1, b = 2, ..., z = 1. The new way of looking at letters is a straight-up count from a = 1, b = 2, ..., z = 26. Here is a link to an online gematria translator. It applies also a reverse count from a = 26, b = 25, ..., z = 1, and, from the numbers 1 to 9 throughout the alphabet, and it's reverse.

http://www.gematrinator.com/calculator/index.php

Well, almost all of my initial attempts at some "meaning" here resulted in some success. Even the word gematria has an interesting result. Some other very interesting results. Give it a try!

I tried the two phrases, resurgence, and, in the eye of the storm. Resurgence. was the newspaper term. I thought that, being it was Easter and all, why not try, in the eye of the storm. Then I tried the words, chloroquine, and hydroxychloroquine. Bingo, as they say, or, Bob's your uncle! Incidentally, the word, resurgence had half the gematria "value", so, is, perhaps, half of the "battle" here.

In the eye of storm was the "numerical" opposite of hydroxychloroquine. One had the opposite "values" of the other. Quite a feat of the "random". Put together, the gematria "value" for these two phrases was 486 + 486 = 972 = [9^(1 + 1)](1 + 1)6. Separately, the combined "value" for each is 486 = [9^(1 + 1)]6. "Averaged" out, we take only three 1's between the 9, and, the 6, to yield the number 91116, which is the reverse of the two ways, from before, to thusly write out the virus.

What does this mean? That we, perhaps, Trump in particular, are in the eye of the storm.

There was one match for another phrase that yields the same gematria result as, Hydroxychloroquine in the eye of the storm. It was, "Magic Square of the Sun adds to Six Sixty-Six."

[The Boz]

Nothing more to say.

[mickeycrimm]

You fucking stupid assholes. Just turn of the computer, for a few minutes, to watch those alligator mouths fly up those hummingbird asses. Hehehe.

There were libtards on twitter that were giddy with glee when the stock market tanked.

Well, thank you, Messrs. Bozo, and Crimm for keeping this thread alive, and, right on cue.

The latest numbers are in. To recap, a bit, from last time.

Well, for the "purists" here, I was playing around some more with these numbers of letters of the alphabet. It appears that things go together in sequence with the numbers of the letters of 6, 6 ---> f.u.; 9, 9, 11 ---> r.i.p; 11, 0 ---> k.o.; and 0, 11 ---> o.k; back to 11, 9, 9 ---> r.i.p.; and 6, 6 ---> f.u.

In other words, "F.u., r.i.p." "K.o.!" "O.k.?" "R.i.p, f.u." The corresponding numbers 6,6.....9,9.....11,11.....0, 0.....11,11.....9,9.....6, 6 ---> 6, 9, 1, 0 , 1, 9, 6 ---> 6, 9, 1, 1 - 1, 1, 9, 6 ---> 197 = 1 + 14^2 ---> 1 + 14^(1 + 1) ---> 11411, that number, from before, which relates to the gravitational fine-structure constant. Amazing.

Well, I went to play around, last evening, with a few more interchanged bits of about ten different phrases. I wanted to look into the gematria "measurements" of these bits of phrase. It's a "measure" that I never really looked at before. Just for "fun", of course. The only other, similar "measure" I used, years ago, was the simple mirroring of the alphabet. A = 1, b = 2, ..., z = 1. The new way of looking at letters is a straight-up count from a = 1, b = 2, ..., z = 26. Here is a link to an online gematria translator. It applies also a reverse count from a = 26, b = 25, ..., z = 1, and, from the numbers 1 to 9 throughout the alphabet, and it's reverse.

http://www.gematrinator.com/calculator/index.php

Well, almost all of my initial attempts at some "meaning" here resulted in some success. Even the word gematria has an interesting result. Some other very interesting results. Give it a try!

I tried the two phrases, resurgence, and, in the eye of the storm. Resurgence. was the newspaper term. I thought that, being it was Easter and all, why not try, in the eye of the storm. Then I tried the words, chloroquine, and hydroxychloroquine. Bingo, as they say, or, Bob's your uncle! Incidentally, the word, resurgence had half the gematria "value", so, is, perhaps, half of the "battle" here.

In the eye of storm was the "numerical" opposite of hydroxychloroquine. One had the opposite "values" of the other. Quite a feat of the "random". Put together, the gematria "value" for these two phrases was 486 + 486 = 972 = [9^(1 + 1)](1 + 1)6. Separately, the combined "value" for each is 486 = [9^(1 + 1)]6. "Averaged" out, we take only three 1's between the 9, and, the 6, to yield the number 91116, which is the reverse of the two ways, from before, to thusly write out the virus.

What does this mean? That we, perhaps, Trump in particular, are in the eye of the storm.

There was one match for another phrase that yields the same gematria result as, Hydroxychloroquine in the eye of the storm. It was, "Magic Square of the Sun adds to Six Sixty-Six."

To much gibberish, Bill. I didn't read it.

[LMR]

Too much gibberish, Bill. I didn't read it.

Often, the highest form of compliment for any piece of art.

There was one match for another phrase that yields the same gematria result as, "Hydroxychloroquine in the eye of the storm." It was, "Magic Square of the Sun adds to Six Sixty-Six."

Just realized that the "sun" here must stand for the virus, the corona- part of it.

[kewlJ]

So the numbers are definitely greatly improved from projections a few weeks ago that alarmed me so much. Initial experts and models showed 2.4 million deaths in the US if we did nothing, just went about business as usual. I personally will admit that I though and feared even more. So a month into shutting down the country the model numbers dropped to first 100k and now, last I saw 60k range of which we are about 1/3 there.

So now what? If we re-open say May 1, as Mr Trump is considering, what stops us from going right back to those initial models of 2.4 million? On the other hand, what are we going to do keep the country shutdown and everyone home for the next 18 months until they come up with a vaccine? It's a real dilemma. I don't know the answer. Which ever way you go is likely to have pretty negative consequences.

[redietz]

I would watch using the phrase "the model," kewlJ. There is no one model. The model that is being pushed currently uses the neat trick of predicting "just" 60k deaths with an August 4th deadline, after which presumably the virus decides to retire before its 401ks de-value too much. None of the current models predict an "entire pandemic death toll" of 60k. The 1918 outbreak numbers are tallied from the better part of three years.

The big question is penetration. The greater the penetration, which is currently unknown due to lack of testing, the less the future danger and the less likely of second and third waves and major outbreaks. The less the penetration, the more dangerous it will be to re-open anything.

Finally, the "just 60K deaths" model also predicts some early peaks for states that it is increasingly unlikely will have those early peaks. For example, the models actually being used by health care companies in Tennessee predict a peak four to five weeks after the 60K model.

You see what's happening here, right? You get underestimations of everything until something had to be done. Then the president makes public the worst-case scenario models so as to play the hero who prevented the worst-case models. Then when the death rate comes down due to social distancing and business/school closures, the administration push is that there's been massive penetration and everything is safe, so let's open things back up. Only problem -- there hasn't been enough testing to establish any degree of penetration whatsoever.

The bottom line is the administration shut things down late, pushes to open them early, and has been flying blind the entire way, including now. President Trump, in his last presser, talked about COVID-19 as if it were a bacteria vulnerable to antibiotics. I have no idea what he was talking about. It was frightening. That is flying blind to the nth degree.

[mickeycrimm]

I assume you wanted a response, so I'll oblige. If you'll go back and see what prompted some people to be upset, it was when Boz mentioned the Trade Tower deaths, and I said this should sprint by it by a factor of 30. That was actually in line with the optimistic versions of the models that said, if distancing was enforced nationwide, we were looking at 80K to 85K deaths. After the first two meteoric days of New York problems, I said "I was wrong" (regarding the 80-85K deaths), and I had been way too optimistic. It was a couple of days later that Trump gave the 100K figure in a task force briefing, which was followed by a revision less than 36 hours later to between 100K and 200K. Now if you are going to say that I was somehow wrong at that point in time, you realize you have to say that Trump was more wrong.

Some things to consider, again, is that the 60K numbers are framed the way they are for reasons, probably to push for business openings. Those numbers are NOT for 2020. Those numbers are NOT for the entire pandemic, which may last several years. Those numbers ARE for up-to-August 4th estimates.

The virus doesn't know it's supposed to go vacation starting August 4th. If you'll notice, the beginning of August leaves five more months in the year. Good luck with the end date for the pandemic. Good luck with no second and third waves. If you'll also notice, you'll see that the 1918 pandemic totals are for the entire pandemic, which stretched for the better part of three years, I believe.

Mickey, you're stacking of stats with this is really just about as bad as MDawg counting the sessions that he wins. It's that bad. People dying in October do count, you know.

Your whole post is just shifting numbers around in a smoke & mirrors attempt to not look bad for your outrageous projections.

I'm sure had you found any "outrageous projections" by me regarding how many people I thought would die, you would have quoted them, eh mickey?

It was the president who generated that 2.2 million figure, not me, my friend. You might want to attribute that quote properly.

And further, regarding your propensity to "shift numbers around," let me know when you find a quote by me regarding death tolls that uses phrases like "first wave" or "by August 4th." There won't be any. This is new lingo to cheerlead for a quick "return to normalcy."

And you continue to politicize the issue by saying Trump came up with the 2.2 million figure. He most certainly did not. You know damn well he is not a doctor. He's dependent on advisers on the issue. Whatever advisers involved put up those big numbers then started slowly retracting them. Those advisers along with many others not in the administration told us not to fear coronavirus. They used the president in spreading this false information. He's not a doctor. How could he possibly know. Then they flip flopped. So did he because he's not a doctor. How could he possibly know. He's completely dependent on what others tell him..

You also blamed the president for this but again he is not a doctor. He's dependent on advisers. You need to place the blame where it belongs and quit picking on the president.