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Thread: Covid-19 by the numbers

  1. #161
    I am still of the uneducated, just common sense, belief that many more of us have had it already. As they keep releasing more and more possible symptoms, many of us probably had it and never knew it.

    The facts are still that the vast majority of those dying are elderly and had pre existing conditions. I question how many of the famous NBA players that had it would have never been tested if they were not famous. Sean Payton was released Tuesday and is good to go and said he never had major symptoms. I wonder why he was even tested?

    How many of us have had days where we were tired, nose running from allergies or didn’t feel great in the past month? There is a good possibility we had it and will never be recognized in the official stats.

  2. #162
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    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Stanford Doctor: Coronavirus fatality rate may be lower by far than predicted:

    https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrW...zQ5p3Btx9WLcQ-
    Did the good doctor say how many younger persons would die without the same treatment they used to give to the older ones in Italy, the ones over 60? Well, I'll just keep putting my stuff in front of question marks. "Ventrilators", anyone?

  3. #163
    Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    I am still of the uneducated, just common sense, belief that many more of us have had it already. As they keep releasing more and more possible symptoms, many of us probably had it and never knew it.

    The facts are still that the vast majority of those dying are elderly and had pre existing conditions. I question how many of the famous NBA players that had it would have never been tested if they were not famous. Sean Payton was released Tuesday and is good to go and said he never had major symptoms. I wonder why he was even tested?

    How many of us have had days where we were tired, nose running from allergies or didn’t feel great in the past month? There is a good possibility we had it and will never be recognized in the official stats.
    This is entirely possible.

    Have you been to a grocery store recently where somebody let's out with a loud sneeze? In the past hardly anybody flinched. Now it's like a bio-chemical has just been released, and it's really probably nothing more sinister than it's ever been.

  4. #164
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    It's entirely possibly, as well, and now appears, that the virus is going to become a seasonal thing. Too bad that it's hard to build up an immunity to it.

    This year, aquarium cleaner, next year the vaccine.

  5. #165
    Originally Posted by LMR View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Stanford Doctor: Coronavirus fatality rate may be lower by far than predicted:

    https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrW...zQ5p3Btx9WLcQ-
    Did the good doctor say how many younger persons would die without the same treatment they used to give to the older ones in Italy, the ones over 60? Well, I'll just keep putting my stuff in front of question marks. "Ventrilators", anyone?
    That should be plural as in Stanford Doctors. And they are not the only study out there that says so.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  6. #166
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    I know. Trump says so. Nothing else matters. No need to watch the video.

  7. #167
    Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    I am still of the uneducated, just common sense, belief that many more of us have had it already. As they keep releasing more and more possible symptoms, many of us probably had it and never knew it.

    The facts are still that the vast majority of those dying are elderly and had pre existing conditions. I question how many of the famous NBA players that had it would have never been tested if they were not famous. Sean Payton was released Tuesday and is good to go and said he never had major symptoms. I wonder why he was even tested?

    How many of us have had days where we were tired, nose running from allergies or didn’t feel great in the past month? There is a good possibility we had it and will never be recognized in the official stats.
    Agree....Have 2 older Uncles, one 72 and one 62, that a few weeks ago had flu like symptoms. Cough,aches,etc. Both are now recovered and well....Both are convinced they had it

  8. #168
    Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    I am still of the uneducated, just common sense, belief that many more of us have had it already. As they keep releasing more and more possible symptoms, many of us probably had it and never knew it.

    The facts are still that the vast majority of those dying are elderly and had pre existing conditions. I question how many of the famous NBA players that had it would have never been tested if they were not famous. Sean Payton was released Tuesday and is good to go and said he never had major symptoms. I wonder why he was even tested?

    How many of us have had days where we were tired, nose running from allergies or didn’t feel great in the past month? There is a good possibility we had it and will never be recognized in the official stats.
    Our grocery chains are now placing.sneeze shields between them and customers.

  9. #169
    Just think, if no vaccine is found, and sooner or later everyone comes in contact, and the death rate is 1%, total deaths is 3.3 million.

  10. #170
    Originally Posted by LMR View Post
    I know. Trump says so. Nothing else matters. No need to watch the video.
    I know. Pelosi says so. Nothing else matters. No need to watch the video.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  11. #171
    Originally Posted by House of Orange View Post
    Just think, if no vaccine is found, and sooner or later everyone comes in contact, and the death rate is 1%, total deaths is 3.3 million.
    The death rate is far greater than 1%. It can take up to a month even longer for someone to either die or recover. That means at any time, between active cases, and resolved cases, meaning either those that died or recovered, there are a very large group of active cases that can not be part of the death rate calculation. They are still pending. The death rate is NOT deaths divided by total cases. It is deaths divided by resolved cases. Really the comparison is only about those who have recovered and those that have died. To do it any differently is fudging the numbers. And by that number the current death rate is about 9%.

    At any given time this total number which includes active cases also includes 10's of thousands of people in critical condition. A good number of those people are going to die. That is not being factored in. As a matter of fact by dividing the deaths by total cases you are assuming that all those critical people will survive and clearly not true. Again the problem is that it takes so long, a month or longer for a case to resolve.

    Now I hope and think that the death rate will come down because we have better medical than other places that got the virus first. This is going to seem a little crude but also some of the most vulnerable die early and quickly. Sort of like low hanging fruit. I am thinking half of that current 9% rate (deaths divided by resolved cases).

    Now the other mistake is people thinking that there are so many more cases that have resolved by themselves with minor symptoms or the person not even knowing. That is simply an assumption! We don't know that and we don't use assumptions in science. There is an easy way to figure that and that is to test everybody and see how many had the virus and recovered with little or no symptoms. But we aren't doing that. We could even test a sample group of say 10,000 so that we would have a data point of how many had the virus with little or no symptoms, to better bases that on. But just to assume that all kinds of people, and everyone's aunt and uncle that had the sniffles had corona-virus and recovered is just BS. It is the end of winter, someone's uncle that had a cough and sniffles probably had a cold. Winter..cold??

    So there are just way too many assumptions being made on this forum and even in the media. The scientific way to determine death rate is death divided by resolved cases. Don't assume that of all the current cases no more will die.....That is preposterous. It is fudging the numbers.

  12. #172
    Heres how we know that scientists and government know the death rate is far greater than 1%. NO Government would choose to shut down over a 1% or less death rate. You take precautions, try to protect the most vulnerable by maybe isolating them, but no government would shut down.

    Now lets do the numbers: Here in the US lets use 300 million people for easy math. 50-60% get the virus. That is 150-180 million. 1% death rate that is 1.5 -1.8 million die. We have 3 million people that die annually from all causes. So that means that the annual number of deaths would increase by 50% for a year or two until a cure or vaccine was discovered. That is very unpleasant. But we wouldn't stop life as we know it.

    So despite this false calculating of 1% by dividing deaths by total cases instead of resolved cases, scientists and medical people know the death rate is much, much higher and that is why governments are going to such extremes.

    So again, lets go by the numbers. Lets say in the end, half of the current 9%. 5%. 300 million people. That is 15 million deaths. Now you are talking about numbers that you would do something as extreme as shut down our way of life.

    I don't know why nobody is telling the truth. I guess they figure people can't read the numbers and don't want to panic people, which would create disruptions in food supply and all hell breaking lose. But there is an old saying "watch what people do, not what they say". In this case look at our governments actions, not what they say. The action of shutting down our way of life (and it is going to continue despite what Trump says) is simply not consistent with a 1% or less death rate. It is consistent with a much higher death rate and much bigger crisis.

  13. #173
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    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by LMR View Post
    I know. Trump says so. Nothing else matters. No need to watch the video.
    I know. Pelosi says so. Nothing else matters. No need to watch the video.
    They're all "old farts". So far as they don't give a crap about the rest of us, let the buggers die off.

  14. #174
    Now despite my posts of doom, there are some variables that could work in our favor.

    1.) is weather. It's possible and each day looks a little more possible that this virus as other viruses decline in warmer weather. Here is the US, we start to really get into warmer weather in the next month or two from south to north of course. That may buy us some time. May even allow us to get back to normal for 4,5, 6 months and hopefully better prepare for the next wave. And based on some history like 1918, the second wave is often the deadlier wave. I am not an expert so I don't know if these viruses regroup, or mutate and grow stronger or what, but often the second wave is deadlier, so we need to prepare for that.

    2.) second variable that could be great news is if indeed there are millions more people that have contracted the virus and resolved on their own with little or no symptoms. And I hope this is the case, I really do. I just object to assuming that without any proof, like testing. This assumption could be a fatal mistake and not just individually fatal. We defeat this virus with science, not assumptions and guess work.

  15. #175
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Heres how we know that scientists and government know the death rate is far greater than 1%. NO Government would choose to shut down over a 1% or less death rate. You take precautions, try to protect the most vulnerable by maybe isolating them, but no government would shut down.

    Now lets do the numbers: Here in the US lets use 300 million people for easy math. 50-60% get the virus. That is 150-180 million. 1% death rate that is 1.5 -1.8 million die. We have 3 million people that die annually from all causes. So that means that the annual number of deaths would increase by 50% for a year or two until a cure or vaccine was discovered. That is very unpleasant. But we wouldn't stop life as we know it.

    So despite this false calculating of 1% by dividing deaths by total cases instead of resolved cases, scientists and medical people know the death rate is much, much higher and that is why governments are going to such extremes.

    So again, lets go by the numbers. Lets say in the end, half of the current 9%. 5%. 300 million people. That is 15 million deaths. Now you are talking about numbers that you would do something as extreme as shut down our way of life.

    I don't know why nobody is telling the truth. I guess they figure people can't read the numbers and don't want to panic people, which would create disruptions in food supply and all hell breaking lose. But there is an old saying "watch what people do, not what they say". In this case look at our governments actions, not what they say. The action of shutting down our way of life (and it is going to continue despite what Trump says) is simply not consistent with a 1% or less death rate. It is consistent with a much higher death rate and much bigger crisis.
    Did you calculate the drive by doomsday anti-Trump alarmist media in why governments shut down the economies?
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  16. #176
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by House of Orange View Post
    Just think, if no vaccine is found, and sooner or later everyone comes in contact, and the death rate is 1%, total deaths is 3.3 million.
    The death rate is far greater than 1%. It can take up to a month even longer for someone to either die or recover. That means at any time, between active cases, and resolved cases, meaning either those that died or recovered, there are a very large group of active cases that can not be part of the death rate calculation. They are still pending. The death rate is NOT deaths divided by total cases. It is deaths divided by resolved cases. Really the comparison is only about those who have recovered and those that have died. To do it any differently is fudging the numbers. And by that number the current death rate is about 9%.

    At any given time this total number which includes active cases also includes 10's of thousands of people in critical condition. A good number of those people are going to die. That is not being factored in. As a matter of fact by dividing the deaths by total cases you are assuming that all those critical people will survive and clearly not true. Again the problem is that it takes so long, a month or longer for a case to resolve.

    Now I hope and think that the death rate will come down because we have better medical than other places that got the virus first. This is going to seem a little crude but also some of the most vulnerable die early and quickly. Sort of like low hanging fruit. I am thinking half of that current 9% rate (deaths divided by resolved cases).

    Now the other mistake is people thinking that there are so many more cases that have resolved by themselves with minor symptoms or the person not even knowing. That is simply an assumption! We don't know that and we don't use assumptions in science. There is an easy way to figure that and that is to test everybody and see how many had the virus and recovered with little or no symptoms. But we aren't doing that. We could even test a sample group of say 10,000 so that we would have a data point of how many had the virus with little or no symptoms, to better bases that on. But just to assume that all kinds of people, and everyone's aunt and uncle that had the sniffles had corona-virus and recovered is just BS. It is the end of winter, someone's uncle that had a cough and sniffles probably had a cold. Winter..cold??

    So there are just way too many assumptions being made on this forum and even in the media. The scientific way to determine death rate is death divided by resolved cases. Don't assume that of all the current cases no more will die.....That is preposterous. It is fudging the numbers.
    Kj, there is only controled experiment where we kept people in quarantine almost trying to give them the coronvirus and then tested the whole sample set. Which lab experiment am I talking about? The Diamond Princess cruise ship. There were 3,700 people on this cruise and about 700 got the coronavirus. That means 80% did not get the virus and they were being fed by infected food staff workers for four weeks. Like I said, it’s shocking only 20% got the virus.

    How many ended up dying? 7, and this was an old population. Most of the people that take a cruise are either newlyweds or “nearlydeads”. On this cruise ship most of them were nearlydeads. The first two that died were 84 and 87. What were they doing on a cruise ship?

    So the upper number of deaths is 1%. It’s not the ridiculous 3.4% number the world health organization has thrown out there. If you extrapolate this data to the average age of our population, the death rate would be 0.125%. John loannidis, a Stanford doctor and statistician, came up with this figure.

    So based on the diamond princess lab experiment this virus is not near as bad as the media is claiming it is. It’s mostly dangerous to those people over 80, and pretty much anything will take out these people. I mean neither one of my parents were even lucky enough to live to that age to be taken out by the coronavirus.

    Signed: Tasha, Moses or Bob21, or possibly all three. We’re kind of like the trinity, different but the same. Lol

  17. #177
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post

    Did you calculate the drive by doomsday anti-Trump alarmist media in why governments shut down the economies?
    Unlike you guys that make everything about Trump, this isn't about Trump for me.

  18. #178
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post

    Kj, there is only controled experiment where we kept people in quarantine almost trying to give them the coronvirus and then tested the whole sample set. Which lab experiment am I talking about? The Diamond Princess cruise ship. There were 3,700 people on this cruise and about 700 got the coronavirus. That means 80% did not get the virus and they were being fed by infected food staff workers for four weeks. Like I said, it’s shocking only 20% got the virus.

    How many ended up dying? 7,
    We have had this discussion before. The numbers I believe you are using are from early March, I believe like March 6 or 7. At that time, 7 had died, BUT there were still 15 in critical condition. I haven't been able to find any updates articles or data that would include those 15 people in critical as resolved, either having died or recovered. If you have such an updated information and article, please post a link, I would like to read it.

    I also would like to see updated information and data on the 20% infection rate. I mean the March 6/7 articles are only weeks after the DP became a problem and test case. If that number holds and the infection rate didn't grow, this 20% number would be great news! I am not against great or good news believe it or not. I just want data to back it up.

  19. #179
    And I'll tell you something else. Too many health care workers are getting sick. I mean these workers have protective gear. Yes they are anticipating shortages, but so far the vast majority have had adequate gear, and yet the number of healthcare workers getting sick is extreme. This tells me theories on how this spreads may be underestimated. I'll go back to Dr Fauci, because he is an expert. You know what he said on the matter. He said "we don't think the virus can be airborn. It's possible but we don't think so." This high rate of infection among healthcare workers says you need to take another look at that.

    My point is that there is just so much we don't know. There just seems to be a lot of assumptions on the lesser or lower end of things. I am not against hoping for the best, but we should be preparing for the worst.

    For a long time now scientists have thought that the world would end one of two ways, either an asteroid hitting earth or a virus that wipes out humanity. So along comes a new virus, killing people at a high rate, and it is downplayed. "Oh there are probably millions more that have had it and recovered". "we don't think the virus can be airborne".

    Too much downplaying for my comfort. This is a new virus. We don't know how it acts or mutates, returns. Maybe people get sick recover and get sick (worse) again? Cancer seems to do that a lot.

    Prepare for the worse, while hoping for the best.

  20. #180
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post

    Kj, there is only controled experiment where we kept people in quarantine almost trying to give them the coronvirus and then tested the whole sample set. Which lab experiment am I talking about? The Diamond Princess cruise ship. There were 3,700 people on this cruise and about 700 got the coronavirus. That means 80% did not get the virus and they were being fed by infected food staff workers for four weeks. Like I said, it’s shocking only 20% got the virus.

    How many ended up dying? 7,
    We have had this discussion before. The numbers I believe you are using are from early March, I believe like March 6 or 7. At that time, 7 had died, BUT there were still 15 in critical condition. I haven't been able to find any updates articles or data that would include those 15 people in critical as resolved, either having died or recovered. If you have such an updated information and article, please post a link, I would like to read it.

    I also would like to see updated information and data on the 20% infection rate. I mean the March 6/7 articles are only weeks after the DP became a problem and test case. If that number holds and the infection rate didn't grow, this 20% number would be great news! I am not against great or good news believe it or not. I just want data to back it up.
    Kj, I checked the numbers and the death rate still stands at 7. This is for a population set that is highly skewed to old farts. And the infection rate was only 17%. This is for a population set with the crew inadvertently trying to give it to everybody for four weeks.

    I’m on my phone so I can’t attach articles. But a couple good ones are: One is in nature.com and came out yesterday. The title is “what the cruise ship outbreak reveals about Covid-19.” Another good article is in Sciencenews.org. The title is “cruise ship outbreak helps pin down how deadly the new coronavirus is.”

    Both articles indicate the death rate is closer to 0.5 percent, which means it’s worst than the flu but not this Armageddon scenario you and the press like to put out there. If we would let it run its natural course only about 20% of the population would even get infected (based on numbers from Diamond princess)

    From what I can tell, this virus looks to be about 2 to 5 times more deadly than a serious flu outbreak. Obviously, not good but not some sort of major Armageddon crisis.

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