Covid-19 by the numbers

[mcap]

Well I am hoping and believing Kewlj is wrong and the reason the confirmed case recovered/death percentage is bad is because most places in the US you can’t even get a test unless you’re hospitalized, so many places the only cases reported are the severe ones and that’s the snapshot we’ve gotten.

My pops in his 60’s has been down for three days with an awful “flu,” running a fever can’t eat, clinic will not even see you unless you’re hospitalized, can’t get tested in that state if you’re not admitted to hospital or a healthcare worker. He has decent insurance, retired government employee, so theoretically he should be able to see a doctor and get reasonable care. Nope! Regular people paying insurance premiums basically can’t even use their insurance now unless you’re admitted to the hospital. Mom in 60’s who just had pneumonia at the end of February beginning of March is home with him....shit is stressing me out.

[kewlJ]

Kj, I checked the numbers and the death rate still stands at 7. This is for a population set that is highly skewed to old farts. And the infection rate was only 17%. This is for a population set with the crew inadvertently trying to give it to everybody for four weeks.

I’m on my phone so I can’t attach articles. But a couple good ones are: One is in nature.com and came out yesterday. The title is “what the cruise ship outbreak reveals about Covid-19.” Another good article is in Sciencenews.org. The title is “cruise ship outbreak helps pin down how deadly the new coronavirus is.”

Both articles indicate the death rate is closer to 0.5 percent, which means it’s worst than the flu but not this Armageddon scenario you and the press like to put out there. If we would let it run its natural course only about 20% of the population would even get infected (based on numbers from Diamond princess)

From what I can tell, this virus looks to be about 2 to 5 times more deadly than a serious flu outbreak. Obviously, not good but not some sort of major Armageddon crisis.

The sciencenews article is dated March 12. The nature.com article was "updated" March 26. BUT, both are still using numbers from much earlier. Sciencenews article even states "as of February 20" before it's data numbers. The articles may be updated, the data has not. They are both using Data that is several weeks old and does not include the 15 people that were in critical condition at the time.

[kewlJ]

Well I am hoping and believing Kewlj is wrong and the reason the confirmed case recovered/death percentage is bad is because most places in the US you can’t even get a test unless you’re hospitalized, so many places the only cases reported are the severe ones and that’s the snapshot we’ve gotten.

My pops in his 60’s has been down for three days with an awful “flu,” running a fever can’t eat, clinic will not even see you unless you’re hospitalized, can’t get tested in that state if you’re not admitted to hospital or a healthcare worker. He has decent insurance, retired government employee, so theoretically he should be able to see a doctor and get reasonable care. Nope! Regular people paying insurance premiums basically can’t even use their insurance now unless you’re admitted to the hospital. Mom in 60’s who just had pneumonia at the end of February beginning of March is home with him....shit is stressing me out.

Sorry to hear of you pops, mcap. Hoping he feels better and makes a full recovery.

"Clinic will not even see you unless you are hospitalized" and the won't put you in the hospital unless you have tested positive. Sounds like a variation of the which came first chicken or egg.

I too hope KJ is wrong....I really do. I just think there are too many assumptions being made and false reading of data, for a situation will really just don't know about. Our experts just don't even know.

[Rob.Singer]

The death rate is badly skewed because of the numbers from NYC. That city is overloaded with foreigners/refugees who come to the city knowing they'll get handouts, and they live like congregating rats together in small, over-crowded apartments. It's a breeding ground for this sort of thing, and many of those slugs are used to crap like this because they come from it.

[kewlJ]

Since this thread is entitled Covid-19 by the numbers, here are some sobering numbers.

Tuesday there were 164 deaths reported in the US

Wednesday there were 233 deaths reports in the US

Thursday there were 253 deaths reported in the US

Today, as of 3pm eastern time, there have been 265 deaths reported (and we are only part way through the day.

If you can't see the trend, you just don't want to see the trend.

[Keystone]

We all may as well die ��

[mickeycrimm]

Kj, there is only controled experiment where we kept people in quarantine almost trying to give them the coronvirus and then tested the whole sample set. Which lab experiment am I talking about? The Diamond Princess cruise ship. There were 3,700 people on this cruise and about 700 got the coronavirus. That means 80% did not get the virus and they were being fed by infected food staff workers for four weeks. Like I said, it’s shocking only 20% got the virus.

How many ended up dying? 7,

We have had this discussion before. The numbers I believe you are using are from early March, I believe like March 6 or 7. At that time, 7 had died, BUT there were still 15 in critical condition. I haven't been able to find any updates articles or data that would include those 15 people in critical as resolved, either having died or recovered. If you have such an updated information and article, please post a link, I would like to read it.

I also would like to see updated information and data on the 20% infection rate. I mean the March 6/7 articles are only weeks after the DP became a problem and test case. If that number holds and the infection rate didn't grow, this 20% number would be great news! I am not against great or good news believe it or not. I just want data to back it up.

Kj, I checked the numbers and the death rate still stands at 7. This is for a population set that is highly skewed to old farts. And the infection rate was only 17%. This is for a population set with the crew inadvertently trying to give it to everybody for four weeks.

I’m on my phone so I can’t attach articles. But a couple good ones are: One is in nature.com and came out yesterday. The title is “what the cruise ship outbreak reveals about Covid-19.” Another good article is in Sciencenews.org. The title is “cruise ship outbreak helps pin down how deadly the new coronavirus is.”

Both articles indicate the death rate is closer to 0.5 percent, which means it’s worst than the flu but not this Armageddon scenario you and the press like to put out there. If we would let it run its natural course only about 20% of the population would even get infected (based on numbers from Diamond princess)

From what I can tell, this virus looks to be about 2 to 5 times more deadly than a serious flu outbreak. Obviously, not good but not some sort of major Armageddon crisis.

https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrW...z7V4.VLQ0YMBo-

https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrV...bUqhcH6VblogM-

[Bob21]

Since this thread is entitled Covid-19 by the numbers, here are some sobering numbers.

Tuesday there were 164 deaths reported in the US

Wednesday there were 233 deaths reports in the US

Thursday there were 253 deaths reported in the US

Today, as of 3pm eastern time, there have been 265 deaths reported (and we are only part way through the day.

If you can't see the trend, you just don't want to see the trend.

If we’re talking numbers, here are some more interesting numbers few people know about. Of the first 123 people who died in United States from the coronavirus, 13 were over 90. That’s over 10% dead coming from very very old people. Most of the rest were in their 80S, with a few in there 70s.

Personally, I don’t think they should count people over 90 in coronavirus deaths. It’s probably a close call on what took them out, old age or some virus.

The press wants people to think this affects everybody equally. The fact is it’s getting mostly old people and people with compromised immune systems, just like the flu does every year.

Btw, 2017 was a bad flu year here. I found out 60,000 people in US died from the flu. Did the press report on that every day and give a running total of the dead? If they did, I missed it.

I’m not saying this is just as bad as the flu because it’s not. It’s obviously worse than the flu but it’s no Armageddon scenario.

[monet]

You can't avoid danger
Just go on and try
No matter your actions
YOUR STILL GONNA DIE!!

[monet]

Since this thread is entitled Covid-19 by the numbers, here are some sobering numbers.

Tuesday there were 164 deaths reported in the US

Wednesday there were 233 deaths reports in the US

Thursday there were 253 deaths reported in the US

Today, as of 3pm eastern time, there have been 265 deaths reported (and we are only part way through the day.

If you can't see the trend, you just don't want to see the trend.

You need over 9000 deaths a day to kill off 1 percent of the American Population in (1 year) 365 days.
Stop panicking... that isn't happening and if it does, you might as well pack it in.
Stock up on food, guns and ammo because the real threat is Government Control.

On the high end WW2 killed 75 Million people.
Compare that to a world population of 7.6 Billion.
Like I said before... you have 821 Million people starving in the world... 821 MILLION!

[BoSox]

Since this thread is entitled Covid-19 by the numbers, here are some sobering numbers.

Tuesday there were 164 deaths reported in the US

Wednesday there were 233 deaths reports in the US

Thursday there were 253 deaths reported in the US

Today, as of 3pm eastern time, there have been 265 deaths reported (and we are only part way through the day.

If you can't see the trend, you just don't want to see the trend.

KJ, you don't need to be a judge in that $50K bet and learn from MDawg, you can spot your own trends as they happen.

[Bob21]

Since this thread is entitled Covid-19 by the numbers, here are some sobering numbers.

Tuesday there were 164 deaths reported in the US

Wednesday there were 233 deaths reports in the US

Thursday there were 253 deaths reported in the US

Today, as of 3pm eastern time, there have been 265 deaths reported (and we are only part way through the day.

If you can't see the trend, you just don't want to see the trend.

KJ, you don't need to be a judge in that $50K bet and learn from MDawg, you can spot your own trends as they happen.

That’s a good one Bosox! You’ve been on fire lately! You’re going from being the forum detective to being the top commedian.

[LMR]

Coronavirus ---> Carnivorous.


Another connection to Italy.

Covid-19 = SARS-CoV-2 ---> Rossa (VC), too.

Rossa is a comune (municipality) in the Province of Vercelli in the Italian region Piedmont, located about 90 kilometres (56 mi) northeast of Turin and about 60 kilometres (37 mi) northwest of Vercelli.


What would be neat would be a connection to the stock market.

[kewlJ]

You need over 9000 deaths a day to kill off 1 percent of the American Population in (1 year) 365 days.
Stop panicking... that isn't happening

We are over 400 deaths in the United States just today (and still have a couple hours to go). That is up from 285 yesterday.

Last Friday was 22 deaths. That means in 1 week....7 DAYS an increase of 20 fold or 2000%

If we have the same rate of increase over the next 7 days next Friday will be at 8000 deaths, right on the cusp of your number monet.

For a bunch of gambling type, math type guys, I don't think some of you are really seeing these numbers, which surprises me.

[Bob21]

You need over 9000 deaths a day to kill off 1 percent of the American Population in (1 year) 365 days.
Stop panicking... that isn't happening

We are over 400 deaths in the United States just today (and still have a couple hours to go). That is up from 285 yesterday.

Last Friday was 22 deaths. That means in 1 week....7 DAYS an increase of 20 fold or 2000%

If we have the same rate of increase over the next 7 days next Friday will be at 8000 deaths, right on the cusp of your number monet.

For a bunch of gambling type, math type guys, I don't think some of you are really seeing these numbers, which surprises me.

Kj, this is the same way it goes every year with the flu. In 2017 when 60,000 died (this was just US) from the flu, do you think the same number died everyday? No, it starts out slow and then gets more everyday, just like what we’re seeing now. It goes up, then it goes down. We’re on the up swing.

Again, I’m not saying this is as bad as the flu. It’s worse. But many reliable experts using data think it’s about 5x worst than the flu. That means if nothing is done about a 300,000 will die in US, mostly old people and people with compromise immune systems. Bad, but it’s no Armageddon.

When the West Nile virus hit United States in 1999 all the “chicken little” types (meaning your types) said the death rate was 10%. This was the figure the media used too. Once all the data came in, the death rate was more like 1%. Still not good, but much less than “the sky is falling” types were claiming.

Now you need to get back in your bunker with all your cans of food for 2 years, and your guns and ammo and just relax and let this play out, instead of trying to continue your fear mongering. Bottom line is it’s going to do what it’s going to do.

We just need to be smart during this time, and not do something stupid. If all else fails, we can all head to Antarctica like Tasha recommends.

[accountinquestion]

http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Wuhan...ers-49673.html

and this ...

https://news.utexas.edu/2020/03/26/a...al-distancing/

[kewlJ]

So getting back to analyzing the data, some very disturbing news.

Again using World health organization as our data just to stay consistant and compare apples to apples from the initial post 10 days ago, although John Hopkins numbers basically say the same thing.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

So focusing only on closed or resolved cases, that being people that had the virus and either recovered or died 10 days ago the numbers were:

as of 3/18: Total resolved cases 94,709. Recovered 85,742. Deaths 8967. That is 9% death rate! (these numbers as of my initial post 3/18)

Now as of Today: Total resolved cases 169,486. Recovered 139,545. Deaths 29,941. That is 18% death rate.

The death rate has doubled from 9% to 18% as more case resolved (people either died or recovered). It is going the wrong way.

The reason for this is Chinas laughable skewed numbers. If you look at China they are reporting 3000 dead and 75,000 recovered. Experts know far more than that died. Here is a link to a story ( from the post above) about the cremated ashes of 45,000. How do you have cremated remains of 45,000 when you report only 3000 deaths?

http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Wuhan...ers-49673.html

So when analyzing data, you sometimes have data that looks suspiciously wrong. That is called an outlier. We are most familiar with this in politics where you will have 4 polls, 3 showing 2 candidates separated by 2-4 points and a 4th showing them separated by 30 points. The 4th is an outlier. It is skewed either intentionally or by faulty collection of data. You have to disregard that 4th sample of data.

So in this case, China's data is an outlier. It is skewed....in this case intenetionally skewed. So you have to disregard that data. And if you do, for the rest of the world, including United States, deaths skyrockets to anywhere from 25% to 40% of resolved cases. That would be people that has the virus and no longer do. They either recovered or died. The data says 25-40% death rate.

Now we come back to the hope that that are many, many people that have had the virus and resolved on their own without medical treatment that are not being counted in the resolved cases. We hope like hell this is true. But until we have data, it is just a guess.

But for the data we do have the death rate is much, much higher than being reported because they are still using obviously manipulated data from China.

[redietz]

I just wanted to report that based on what has happened in the last 48 hours, my estimates have been too optimistic. I think you will see President Trump walk back his Easter idea Monday or Tuesday.

[LMR]

I think you will see President Trump walk back his Easter idea Monday or Tuesday.

I think that you will see just how crazy Trump is. People talk about life getting back to normal. About the economy getting back to normal. I hear Bill Gates talking on the late news, now, about how soon it's all going to be back to normal. About how, the next time, computers will, within a couple of months, engineer any vaccine for any virus.

I think it's all going to come down to a vaccine for this strain, for which there is no guarantee, and, for this strain to mutate into something much weaker. There is such isolation where I live, it's hard to imagine things getting back to normal, otherwise, that there has to be such isolation to make any difference.

[Bob21]

I think you will see President Trump walk back his Easter idea Monday or Tuesday.

I think that you will see just how crazy Trump is. People talk about life getting back to normal. About the economy getting back to normal. I hear Bill Gates talking on the late news, now, about how soon it's all going to be back to normal. About how, the next time, computers will, within a couple of months, engineer any vaccine for any virus.

I think it's all going to come down to a vaccine for this strain, and, for this strain to mutate into something much weaker. There is such isolation where I live, it's hard to imagine things getting back to normal, otherwise, that there has to be such isolation to make any difference.

Everybody is making this worse than it is. Look at the Dimond Princess cruise ship. Only 7 died out of 3,700 and half these people were close to death when they boarded the cruise ship anyway.

Regardlesss of what the media is putting out there, it’s not taking out the average Joe. It’s taking out the real old (which the flu does too) and people with compromised systems. I get it....the main problem is overloading our hospitals, and we don’t want that to happen. That’s why they are trying to “flatten the curve”...to allow our hospitals to deal with it.

As far as the so called “experts”, you will find them all over the map. There is really no “expert” in this anyway since we’re in new waters. There are many “experts” that think we’re over reacting, like the Stanford doctors, and then are some that think we should take more precautions.

For the most part, the media has the “chicken little” experts on their shows. These are the ones that get Kj all rattled up, and heading for his bunker.

Personally, I think Trump is doing a great job, especially having to battle the media who will criticize him no matter what he does. Yes, Trump might have to back off his open things by Easter comments, but this is only because of political pressure. I hope he stays the course and we start opening things back up by Easter. Look, killing the economy kills people too. There is no good solutions. Yes, this is bad, but not much worse than a bad flu outbreak.

The silver lining nobody wants to talk about is the long term positive impact this will have on social security and our health care system, since most the people dying are those taxing these systems.

Bottom line is we all got to go some way, so why not the coronavirus?