Covid-19 by the numbers

[redietz]

Since reality has arrived, I'll leave you with these two blog entries, "Sixty Days of Addiction" and "The Man Who Wouldn't Cry Wolf."


https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...-cry-wolf.html

[The Boz]

Since reality has arrived, I'll leave you with these two blog entries, "Sixty Days of Addiction" and "The Man Who Wouldn't Cry Wolf."


https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...-cry-wolf.html

While you and I agree on a lot of things on sports betting, we are far apart on this one.

And when you and KJ throw around these 25% death rate numbers, it puts you further from reality than those of us who still consider it an over rated threat for the majority of us.

And the financial damage will be far worse to 98% of Americans than the virus.

That said I get why the high risk groups need to be cautious and avoid us non believers still ordering takeout.

[redietz]

I've never quoted a 25% death rate, so let me be clear on that. Nothing I've said even suggests that.

If you mean death rate for all those infected, no, it should not be close to that when the testing is finally substantial. If you mean death rate for those hospitalized, I have no idea. For those who are intubated, my understanding is that it's about 50/50.

Also, this is not completely about survival. A good chunk of people who get this are going to have permanent lung damage, like having tuberculosis. So quality of life will be reduced for those who survive. That hasn't even been discussed much publicly because then, with 30% minimum having the virus, you're talking about tens of millions with reduced quality of life. Those are the facts. That's the reality. if you prefer to believe something else, be my guest.

I have, at each step of this, been correct about virtually everything. And that did not take any super powers. It took a little reading and listening to actual experts and understanding that science and the military have been running models for this for decades.

I'm a little stunned that people couldn't follow the bread crumbs and arrive at accurate conclusions. All you had to do was follow the proper news sources and actual bona fide experts. No trick to it.

As I say in "The Man Who Wouldn't Cry Wolf," my one rule of thumb in gambling is, "Don't believe what you prefer to believe."


For those who think I'm being biased in some way, let me state clearly that, on a 1 to 10 scale, I'd give the CDC a Zero, Trump a 1; and rest of the federal bureaucracy a 2 on this. It's a complete embarrassment that the United States is this disorganized and is going to suffer like this in these numbers. It should not have happened. This is clearly not the America of my Lunar Module, science-respecting youth. It's a bunch of maroons, top to bottom.

[kewlJ]

And when you and KJ throw around these 25% death rate numbers, it puts you further from reality than those of us who still consider it an over rated threat for the majority of us.

And the financial damage will be far worse to 98% of Americans than the virus.
.

Boz, I am not trying to be an alarmist, I am just trying to make sense of this. I assume we are all scared, regardless that some will never say so. This is something none of us have ever experienced before. A guy on my floor (condominium building) tested positive a few days ago and is self isolating at home. I mean this has me wondering all kinds of crazy shit. Does it come through the walls? And really it doesn't have to. It is in the air and that air doesn't stop at the walls, it circulated through the hallway and throughout the building. And as of last night some experts believe it spreads through the air and have advised the president of that. I have suspected that for a while.


So I made the case that you are making last week, that IF the death rate is 1% or less, then you can make the argument that destroying the economy, might not be worth it. I mean at 1% death rate, if every single person in the U.S. got the virus which doesn't appear to be the case, we would experience 3 million deaths, which would basically double the total deaths in the U.S. each year from all causes. That would be horrible, devastating...we would all lose people we know and love. But do we ruin our economy for years and decades to come? end our way of life?

I don't think that would be the decision. I think the decision would be to muddle through it as best we can, hoping that science and the extraordinary talented experts that we have can come up with treatment and a vaccine as quickly as possible. So the fact the U.S. government and really the world is making the decision to shut down, makes me wonder if this isn't worse than we are being told. And the numbers bear that out. That is all we have to go on. The numbers. AS AP's we live by the numbers. I don't know why we would dismiss them now, at this most important time. That's all I am doing. Sorry if it comes off as me being an alarmist. Nothing I want more than for this to be over and to be able to get back to the life that I cherished and enjoyed so much. That is what I want for everyone.

[Rob.Singer]

At 42 I picked up a nasty double lung problem overseas called PNEUMONIA, was hospitalized 8 days, and my lungs are still in total perfect shape. It's the smokers and the potheads redietz believes will have permanent lung damage should they p/u this virus, only he won't say that because he doesn't want to denigrate drug users.

And naturally, leave it to he and kew to spin the numbers into doom and gloom. Liberals live their lives in constant fear....fear of how they'll be judged by God due to their questionable behavior during their time on earth. They also want to see a bad public perception of Trump--something that ain't never gonna happen because he's in his strongest wheelhouse with this kind of thing.

I'm going to get subs at Subway today. Can I get anyone something?

[kewlJ]

I'm going to get subs at Subway today. Can I get anyone something?

Of course you are! Yesterday was food stamp day and because of increased benefits due to the coronavirus relief bill, you are "rolling in" extra food stamp money.

So yeah, I take a couple chocolate chips cookies. Can you purchase them with food stamps or is it only prepared sandwiches?

[mickeycrimm]

I'm going to get subs at Subway today. Can I get anyone something?

Of course you are! Yesterday was food stamp day and because of increased benefits due to the coronavirus relief bill, you are "rolling in" extra food stamp money.

So yeah, I take a couple chocolate chips cookies. Can you purchase them with food stamps or is it only prepared sandwiches?

Speaking of food stamp day the alarmists said there would be another big run at the supermarkets. I was there yesterday and no big run occurred.

[kewlJ]

Despite my post above, I am not begrudging Rob or anyone their extra food stamps or any benefits as long as they are entitled to them. My brother and I filed for unemployment two days ago and our status were both changed to approved today only 48 hours later. Because we qualify under the recovery package expanded eligibility, I assumed we would have to jump through hoops and provide all kinds of paperwork proving our income. So far that isn't the case, maybe they will be requesting that at some point.

So I have never received unemployment before. So it looks like I will be receiving a debit like card that the funds are electronically sent to. Interesting.

So for my fellow AP's here in Vegas, if you haven't already, go for it. The government says we are entitled. And really the casinos are closed which just like the workers, prevents us from making a living. So why shouldn't we be. Don't feel guilty about it.

[kewlJ]

Speaking of food stamp day the alarmists said there would be another big run at the supermarkets. I was there yesterday and no big run occurred.

I picked up a few things yesterday too and it wasn't because it was food stamp day it was because I was out of "good" food, like ice cream and snacks.

So mickey did you happen to notice a substantial increase in prices of many items as I did? I have seen no mention of this on the news.

[mickeycrimm]

The problem redietz is the big alarm you are sending is not necessary. 200K deaths is just a few hundreths of a percent of the American people. I'm in the high risk group but I'm not sniveling about it like you are "The president's fault. It's the presidents fault." GTFO. You make it sound like doomsday. The first report I got was up to 2.2 million would die. Then it dropped to 300K. Then it dropped to 200K.

You give Trump a 1. That's as phony as a 3 dollar bill. That's all socialist bullshit. You don't blame anyone else. You won't name a name. How about New York leaders begging everyone to get out in February when people were staying home. You seen what it did to New York. How about Nancy Pelosi doing the same thing in San Francisco's Chinatown. How about our former leaders who did nothing to stock for an emergency. Not one peep of criticism have you leveled at them. It just has to be all Trump in your socialist eyes. Get over it. How about those socialist European leaders. They got 3 times the cases over there. You haven't made a peep about those socialist idiots.

[mickeycrimm]

Speaking of food stamp day the alarmists said there would be another big run at the supermarkets. I was there yesterday and no big run occurred.

I picked up a few things yesterday too and it wasn't because it was food stamp day it was because I was out of "good" food, like ice cream and snacks.

So mickey did you happen to notice a substantial increase in prices of many items as I did? I have seen no mention of this on the news.

Not really. There wasn't anything I bought where I thought I was being gouged. It was one of the Albertson's in town and it was stocked pretty good. There was even toilet paper in the racks, and kleenex.

I went shopping yesterday because I wanted to see if the doom and gloomer's were right about the big run on groceries on food stamp day. They were wrong. At least in my town.

[mcap]

You can take politics out of it just by comparing the situations of states that have similar political makeup and both have large cities. Look at how well California is doing vs New York and how early they took action vs New York. The blood is on Cuomo’s hands but the national media largely based out of New York is blaming it mostly on Trump.

Off topic but still media bias related. There’s not a peep from the crowd that’s been all over Kavanaugh and Trump believe women, old white man bad crowd about Biden’s recent sexual harassment allegations.

[mickeycrimm]

Also, this is not completely about survival. A good chunk of people who get this are going to have permanent lung damage, like having tuberculosis. So quality of life will be reduced for those who survive. That hasn't even been discussed much publicly because then, with 30% minimum having the virus, you're talking about tens of millions with reduced quality of life. Those are the facts. That's the reality. if you prefer to believe something else, be my guest.

I have, at each step of this, been correct about virtually everything. And that did not take any super powers. It took a little reading and listening to actual experts and understanding that science and the military have been running models for this....

Tens of millions with lung damage? That would mean more than tens of millions would have to get the virus. I think your number here is not only wrong its outrageous.

[kewlJ]

Yeah, I went to an Albertsons too. And they also had toilet paper. Didn't need any, but I thought the price was high. Maybe my problem is that I don't usually shop Albertsons (prefer Smiths) and part of that reason is that I think Albertsons are prices are high.

Gotta say, mickey some of your comments in the previous post don't make sense to me. The 2.2 million deaths was based on doing nothing. The reduced 200k numbers are based on shutting down the whole country.

Also comment about Europe having 3 times the cases is flat out wrong. We have the most cases in the world and more than twice as many as the next country, Italy. Now we are bigger (population) as well than the European countries, so that is sort of to be expected. And of course we can't trust China's numbers. Be interesting to see how India and its several Billion people fare.

[mickeycrimm]

deleted. duplicate.

[jpfromla]

You can take politics out of it just by comparing the situations of states that have similar political makeup and both have large cities. Look at how well California is doing vs New York and how early they took action vs New York. The blood is on Cuomo’s hands but the national media largely based out of New York is blaming it mostly on Trump.

What helped California out was the early China flight ban in late January. Most of those flights would land in LA or SF. Kept the virus away, unlike NY which got all those European infected flights, that weren’t halted till mid-March.

[LMR]

Apparently, Trump was provided with several different options to deal with the outbreak. He chose the one that had the virus going away on its own, with warmer weather.

"Trump told supporters at a rally in New Hampshire in early March that the virus will be gone by April, claiming that when temperatures rise, “the virus” will “miraculously” go away. Chinese President Xi Jinping has said the same, Trump said."

The do-nothing, and hope-for-the-best, scenario.

I wonder how it feels to have so much "blood" on your hands because you wanted to keep the stock markets up for yourself, and your rich friends.

Ha, well, I guess it really is the way that "the world has always been". No, Crimm, I doubt that Trump cares that you live, or die, regardless from the virus.

[kewlJ]

You can take politics out of it just by comparing the situations of states that have similar political makeup and both have large cities. Look at how well California is doing vs New York and how early they took action vs New York. The blood is on Cuomo’s hands but the national media largely based out of New York is blaming it mostly on Trump.

I'm not sure this is entirely fair. NYC is what I would describe as an international city. More visitor and residents from all over the world than any other U.S. city. NYC is our version of a Paris, London or Tokyo. On top of that, the people literally live on top of each other. No comparison to LA, which has a lot of people but is much more spread out. Not making excuses, just saying circumstances aren't really the same.

[mickeycrimm]

Yeah, I went to an Albertsons too. And they also had toilet paper. Didn't need any, but I thought the price was high. Maybe my problem is that I don't usually shop Albertsons (prefer Smiths) and part of that reason is that I think Albertsons are prices are high.

Gotta say, mickey some of your comments in the previous post don't make sense to me. The 2.2 million deaths was based on doing nothing. The reduced 200k numbers are based on shutting down the whole country.

Also comment about Europe having 3 times the cases is flat out wrong. We have the most cases in the world and more than twice as many as the next country, Italy. Now we are bigger (population) as well than the European countries, so that is sort of to be expected. And of course we can't trust China's numbers. Be interesting to see how India and its several Billion people fare.

Italy, UK, Germany, France, Spain have about 330 million people. We have 328 million people. We have 230,000 cases. They have combined over 400,000 cases. Their percentage of citizens affected is way higher than ours.

The thing about saying we lead the world in cases is it misleads people into thinking we have it worse than other countries. I dont know where we are at per capita rankings right now. We were about 30th a week ago.

[LMR]

I think that Trump still has it "in for" New York.