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Thread: "I'm a Social Scientist"

  1. #1
    Peter Navarro, when asked why he is qualified to have an opinion regarding COVID-19 treatments, answered, "I'm a social scientist. I have a Ph.D. I know how to read studies and statistics."

    Now, I'm not sure how many of you have MDs or PhDs, but this is the funniest thing I have heard in a long time. This is like a baker telling you he should fix your car because he can read Popular Mechanics or Street Rods magazines.

    I have about two dozen friends who have PhDs in social science, and they are going to be thrilled that they can recommend treatments because they have PhDs, and can read studies and statistics. It's a shame my late wife isn't alive, as with two PhDs in social sciences, she would be in great medical demand.

    It's just stunning hubris. A doctorate in one field has about as much expertise in another as a blackjack counter has regarding hockey betting.

  2. #2
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Peter Navarro, when asked why he is qualified to have an opinion regarding COVID-19 treatments, answered, "I'm a social scientist. I have a Ph.D. I know how to read studies and statistics."

    Now, I'm not sure how many of you have MDs or PhDs, but this is the funniest thing I have heard in a long time. This is like a baker telling you he should fix your car because he can read Popular Mechanics or Street Rods magazines.

    I have about two dozen friends who have PhDs in social science, and they are going to be thrilled that they can recommend treatments because they have PhDs, and can read studies and statistics. It's a shame my late wife isn't alive, as with two PhDs in social sciences, she would be in great medical demand.

    It's just stunning hubris. A doctorate in one field has about as much expertise in another as a blackjack counter has regarding hockey betting.
    Excellent post redietz. You could add this makes as much sense as thinking the math behind blackjack somehow gives someone insight into the math behind the stock market. As if there’s some magic math formula to predict the stock market.

    When I was reading Ed Thorpe’s book “A man for all markets” and I got to the chapter where he was trying to relate math for blackjack to math for the stock market, I couldn’t even get through the chapter. I put the book down and never picked it up again. I’m sure Mr. Thorpe is a fairly intelligent person. But this is stupid to the nth degree.

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Peter Navarro, when asked why he is qualified to have an opinion regarding COVID-19 treatments, answered, "I'm a social scientist. I have a Ph.D. I know how to read studies and statistics."

    Now, I'm not sure how many of you have MDs or PhDs, but this is the funniest thing I have heard in a long time. This is like a baker telling you he should fix your car because he can read Popular Mechanics or Street Rods magazines.

    I have about two dozen friends who have PhDs in social science, and they are going to be thrilled that they can recommend treatments because they have PhDs, and can read studies and statistics. It's a shame my late wife isn't alive, as with two PhDs in social sciences, she would be in great medical demand.

    It's just stunning hubris. A doctorate in one field has about as much expertise in another as a blackjack counter has regarding hockey betting.
    Excellent post redietz. You could add this makes as much sense as thinking the math behind blackjack somehow gives someone insight into the math behind the stock market. As if there’s some magic math formula to predict the stock market.

    When I was reading Ed Thorpe’s book “A man for all markets” and I got to the chapter where he was trying to relate math for blackjack to math for the stock market, I couldn’t even get through the chapter. I put the book down and never picked it up again. I’m sure Mr. Thorpe is a fairly intelligent person. But this is stupid to the nth degree.

    This is how, although there aren't government issued credentials, people in gambling get themselves gutted. They make x number of dollars in their specialty, then - whether they are Stu Ungar or Mike Lee or Tony Salinas - they think somehow expertise in one thing translates into expertise in another.

    You don't hire obstetricians to do brain surgery.

    I'm gonna get my compadres here buttons that say, "I'm a social scientist with a PhD. Ask ME." I mean, Jesus, some people with PhDs in one thing can't tie their shoes in another.

  4. #4
    Gold LMR's Avatar
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    I think that you are overlooking the fact here that people left their brains at the door when they joined up with Trump.

  5. #5
    Here's my question, LMR -- does Navarro really believe what he's saying? That he's qualified to "have a second opinion" as a "PhD in social science?" I understand, maybe it's hubris and all that, but I find it hard to believe that he really believes that.

    So why say it? It's sounds ridiculous to anyone who actually has a PhD. Well, I guess the only logical conclusion is that it's aimed at those without PhDs, which if true is a real cynical, underhanded way to operate.

    He, and whoever coached him to say this stuff, wants to undermine Fauci. If this is where the whole process is going, at some point Fauci is going to have to make the choice between doing what good he can on the task force versus resigning from the task force if he can do more good independent of it.

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by LMR View Post
    I think that you are overlooking the fact here that people left their brains at the door when they joined up with Trump.
    People who vote Democrat are no better than German people in The Third Reich. 60-70 million abortions here. Hitler caused 75 million deaths in WW-II. We are catching up to him.

  7. #7
    Redietz thinks Trump is a doctor and blew it with the coronavirus. Didnt do enough early enough. Trump's problem, not being a doctor, is he has to listen to public health officials. What were they saying in January and February. Fauci was telling the public to come on out in public and not be afraid of the virus. New York health officials told their people not to fear the corona virus and come on out to the parades. Louisiana health officials did not advise to cancel Mardi Gras. The thing about these bureaucratic heatlh officials is they are not conservatives. Fauci and Birx are Clinton liberals. In New York a conservative health expert couldn't get hired to do laundry. When people didn't show up in Chinatown in San Francisco in February, Nancy Pelosi went in and shilled for the organizers telling people it was okay to attend. De Blasio was telling people to come on out.

    But the socialist left wing of this country blames the whole thing on Trump. Redietz gives Trump a 1. What the fuck was Trump supposed to know when all these health officials and Democrats were telling people everything was okay? Oh yeah, Trump as President was supposed to know when they were lying or wrong. GTFO!

    If Trump hadn't shut down the flights from China in late January there would have been thousands more deaths by now. What did the Dems do? They called Trump a racist and zenophobe. Said he was overreacting. Who the fuck were the dems getting their advice from on that one?

    So you libtards keep piling on Trump. We'll keep piling on your ignorant asses.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 04-06-2020 at 11:28 AM.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Peter Navarro, when asked why he is qualified to have an opinion regarding COVID-19 treatments, answered, "I'm a social scientist. I have a Ph.D. I know how to read studies and statistics."

    Now, I'm not sure how many of you have MDs or PhDs, but this is the funniest thing I have heard in a long time. This is like a baker telling you he should fix your car because he can read Popular Mechanics or Street Rods magazines.

    I have about two dozen friends who have PhDs in social science, and they are going to be thrilled that they can recommend treatments because they have PhDs, and can read studies and statistics. It's a shame my late wife isn't alive, as with two PhDs in social sciences, she would be in great medical demand.

    It's just stunning hubris. A doctorate in one field has about as much expertise in another as a blackjack counter has regarding hockey betting.
    Excellent post redietz. You could add this makes as much sense as thinking the math behind blackjack somehow gives someone insight into the math behind the stock market. As if there’s some magic math formula to predict the stock market.

    When I was reading Ed Thorpe’s book “A man for all markets” and I got to the chapter where he was trying to relate math for blackjack to math for the stock market, I couldn’t even get through the chapter. I put the book down and never picked it up again. I’m sure Mr. Thorpe is a fairly intelligent person. But this is stupid to the nth degree.

    This is how, although there aren't government issued credentials, people in gambling get themselves gutted. They make x number of dollars in their specialty, then - whether they are Stu Ungar or Mike Lee or Tony Salinas - they think somehow expertise in one thing translates into expertise in another.

    You don't hire obstetricians to do brain surgery.

    I'm gonna get my compadres here buttons that say, "I'm a social scientist with a PhD. Ask ME." I mean, Jesus, some people with PhDs in one thing can't tie their shoes in another.
    Are you talking about yourself? Looks like it.

    Do you have an opinion on Navarro's opinions or are you just concerned with destroying his credibility?
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    When I was reading Ed Thorpe’s book “A man for all markets” and I got to the chapter where he was trying to relate math for blackjack to math for the stock market, I couldn’t even get through the chapter. I put the book down and never picked it up again. I’m sure Mr. Thorpe is a fairly intelligent person. But this is stupid to the nth degree.
    The man's name is Thorp, not Thorpe. If you are going to imply the man doesn't know what he is talking about at least get his name right. So it is stupid stuff to the nth degree hun? Yeah, to the tune of $800 million dollars. That is what Thorp is worth and that came from applying his mathematical theories in the stock market.

    Are you aware that Thorp didn't make any real money playing blackjack. His interest was strictly about the math. He proved some of his theories by playing $1 blackjack with silver coins, proving it wasn't about the money for him. Apparently he didn't feel the same about the stock market as he used those theories to amass a fortune.

    But stupid to the nth degree? Really? We all should be so stupid.

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    When I was reading Ed Thorpe’s book “A man for all markets” and I got to the chapter where he was trying to relate math for blackjack to math for the stock market, I couldn’t even get through the chapter. I put the book down and never picked it up again. I’m sure Mr. Thorpe is a fairly intelligent person. But this is stupid to the nth degree.
    The man's name is Thorp, not Thorpe. If you are going to imply the man doesn't know what he is talking about at least get his name right. So it is stupid stuff to the nth degree hun? Yeah, to the tune of $800 million dollars. That is what Thorp is worth and that came from applying his mathematical theories in the stock market.

    Are you aware that Thorp didn't make any real money playing blackjack. His interest was strictly about the math. He proved some of his theories by playing $1 blackjack with silver coins, proving it wasn't about the money for him. Apparently he didn't feel the same about the stock market as he used those theories to amass a fortune.

    But stupid to the nth degree? Really? We all should be so stupid.
    Kj, sorry for spelling Ed Thorp’s name wrong. That’s how it came out when I did voice dictatation. I’ll get it right from here on out. It sounds like you come from the Don Schlesinger’s school of evaluating intelligence. As with you, he believes it comes back to how much someone is worth. So I guess in both of your books scientist would not be considered very intelligent because most don’t die with millions of dollars.

    And you never did attack the central tenet of my post. Does that mean you agree with me? Ed Thorp tried to relate the math of Blackjack to somehow allowing him to figure out a mathematical formula for the stock market. Do you believe that makes sense? I stand by my comment: That is stupid to the nth degree. I didn’t call Mr. Thorp stupid, I called his belief that he was able to relate the math behind Blackjack to math to predict the stock market.

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post

    Excellent post redietz. You could add this makes as much sense as thinking the math behind blackjack somehow gives someone insight into the math behind the stock market. As if there’s some magic math formula to predict the stock market.

    When I was reading Ed Thorpe’s book “A man for all markets” and I got to the chapter where he was trying to relate math for blackjack to math for the stock market, I couldn’t even get through the chapter. I put the book down and never picked it up again. I’m sure Mr. Thorpe is a fairly intelligent person. But this is stupid to the nth degree.

    This is how, although there aren't government issued credentials, people in gambling get themselves gutted. They make x number of dollars in their specialty, then - whether they are Stu Ungar or Mike Lee or Tony Salinas - they think somehow expertise in one thing translates into expertise in another.

    You don't hire obstetricians to do brain surgery.

    I'm gonna get my compadres here buttons that say, "I'm a social scientist with a PhD. Ask ME." I mean, Jesus, some people with PhDs in one thing can't tie their shoes in another.
    Are you talking about yourself? Looks like it.

    Do you have an opinion on Navarro's opinions or are you just concerned with destroying his credibility?

    I know that I don't know enough to have an opinion on proper medical protocol for COVID-19. What the hell do I know? I hang out with a bunch of social scientists, not the head of infectious diseases at NIH!

    I'm hoping mickey appreciates the irony of the above. I also hope he appreciates that I've spent most of these posts trying to give him information that will keep him alive. I realize mickey doesn't need any help in that regard, considering his fine "Coronavirus is a scam" initial evaluation.

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    Kj, sorry for spelling Ed Thorp’s name wrong. That’s how it came out when I did voice dictatation. I’ll get it right from here on out. It sounds like you come from the Don Schlesinger’s school of evaluating intelligence. As with you, he believes it comes back to how much someone is worth. So I guess in both of your books scientist would not be considered very intelligent because most don’t die with millions of dollars.

    And you never did attack the central tenet of my post. Does that mean you agree with me? Ed Thorp tried to relate the math of Blackjack to somehow allowing him to figure out a mathematical formula for the stock market. Do you believe that makes sense? I stand by my comment: That is stupid to the nth degree. I didn’t call Mr. Thorp stupid, I called his belief that he was able to relate the math behind Blackjack to math to predict the stock market.
    I most certainly do not believe a persons wealth is reflective of their intelligence. 2 examples. I have an uncle who is far and away the smartest person I have ever personally talked with. He was ranked #1 in both his high school class, not a big school, about 200 graduates and #1 in his college class at Bucknell, certainly not an Ivy league school but still a significant achievement. The man completely wasted this gift, living at home until he was 40 and bouncing around from relatively low paying jobs. He is now in his 60's scraping by on social security and probably don't have enough money to pay for burying himself.

    Example #2, some people just fall into money by some dumb luck thing. Think of the guy that did those crazy videos with the girls or someone that invented the pet rock or even just lottery winner. Have you seen some of these lottery winners? No one is going to accuse some of these hillbillies of being all that intelligent.

    Now back to Thorp. The couple times I have heard Thorp speak, I was lost after about 20 seconds, mostly that wasn't about blackjack though. With blackjack, I can follow along a little better, but still much is above my head. Thorp is a mathematician. THAT was his sole interest in blackjack. Now I have no idea if these theories could translate into the stock market. But guess what? He made 800 million, so I guess they could and DID! To say you find it stupid, knowing that it did, seems kind of bizarre. That would be like me saying I think that man traveling to the moon is stupid to the nth degree. Well we have done it! So how stupid can it be?

    And BTW, Thorp isn't one of my favorite people in blackjack history. Again because his interest wasn't in making money via blackjack, he spilled the beans of his findings, which ultimately changed the way the game was played, making it harder to win and for what? It wasn't about making money?

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Apparently he didn't feel the same about the stock market as he used those theories to amass a fortune.
    Kj, a couple more points about Ed Thorp you might not know. As far him amassing his fortunes, do we know if it was due to his math or do to some illegal trading activity? I don’t know how much you know about Thorp, but he was indicted on some security violations, to where it shut down his operation. He ended up not being convicted, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t guilty.

    When I brought this up over at BJTF, Don claims it was some of his associates doing the illegal stuff and Ed didn’t know anything about it, and Thorp distanced himself from those people. In Thorp’s book, he defends these people so I don’t know what to believe.

    Thorp’s son has also been indicted for some security violations. I think he had to pay some big fine. It’s been a while since I’ve read those articles so I forget what the outcome of that was.

    Look, I don’t know what happened with all this stuff and I’m sure none of us will ever know what happened, but from all the articles I’ve read it, it looks like there was some shady things going on in Thorp’s security group. There was probably more than math behind Thorp getting wealthy. There’s a lot of people that get wealthy on Wall Street by doing illegal stuff.

    The other thing we know about Ed Thorp is he’s going to have his head frozen so he can come back to life sometime in the furture. I’ve read this in a couple places and it was posted on another blackjack site.

    Yes, Ed Thorp might be worth $800 million, but I can assure you he is nobody I look up to.

  14. #14
    Gold LMR's Avatar
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    He lost his fortune due to illegal trading activity. Go look it up, if there's any information about it still online. There was more, years ago.

  15. #15
    Funny. Social scientist feeling qualified to have an authoritative opinion here sounds remarkably comparable to someone pretending they’re our resident epidemiologist because their ex-wife did some Native American disease study.

  16. #16
    Some good news for Tennessee for Red.

    Looks like at the peak they will need less than 20% of all available hospital beds and around 40% of ICU beds. With 587 total deaths by August 4th.

    Not good, but certainly not the end days either.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

  17. #17
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    Originally Posted by LMR View Post
    I think that you are overlooking the fact here that people left their brains at the door when they joined up with Trump.
    Ha. The same with the Wizard of Vegas.

  18. #18
    Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    Some good news for Tennessee for Red.

    Looks like at the peak they will need less than 20% of all available hospital beds and around 40% of ICU beds. With 587 total deaths by August 4th.

    Not good, but certainly not the end days either.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
    That same website shows that one of the hot spots, Louisiana is now past its peak and on the down slope. That is great news!

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    Some good news for Tennessee for Red.

    Looks like at the peak they will need less than 20% of all available hospital beds and around 40% of ICU beds. With 587 total deaths by August 4th.

    Not good, but certainly not the end days either.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
    That same website shows that one of the hot spots, Louisiana is now past its peak and on the down slope. That is great news!
    Yes it is. But Nevada and a few other states are showing a legitimate shortage of ICU beds at the peak.

    As a reference it’s a great site to use.

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Now I have no idea if these theories could translate into the stock market. But guess what? He made 800 million, so I guess they could and DID! To say you find it stupid, knowing that it did, seems kind of bizarre.
    I’ll help you out here KJ. First off there is no math formula to predict the future, so you can’t use math to predict the stock market. It’s that simple! That is unless Thorp is related to Notradamus (that’s a joke).

    Second, I do basically know what Thorp did. Now I’m talking about his legal trading, not the illegal trading. I spent quite a bit of time looking into this. It’s nothing complicated, it comes back to highly leveraged trading. It works in stable markets and during the time Thorp owned his security firm, the markets were very stable.

    Btw, he lost a lot of money during the 2008 Financial Collapse. He doesn’t say how much in interviews, but he does say it was a lot. If he owned his investment firm during this time and was using his strategies, his firm would’ve probably gone bankrupt.

    Lehman Brothers went bankrupt using this approach. This was a company that was around for 160 years but during the 2008 financial crisis, it took them out. That’s what happens with highly leveraged trading, when the stock market goes south. The math falls apart. For the record, the math in blackjack does not fall apart in times of crises. It’s a same in stable times or if a nuclear bomb should hit our country.

    Any highly leveraged approach can make multi-millions in stable markets, but if a catastrophe happens (and it will) these approaches will lead to bankruptcy pretty quickly.

    Thorp has no majic formula to predict the stock market. Only God can predict the future. And last I checked God has not been trading in the stock market.
    Last edited by Bob21; 04-06-2020 at 03:13 PM.

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