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Thread: Has Sweden found the right solution to coronavirus?

  1. #21
    Originally Posted by Ex-AP View Post
    You guys need to look at a standardized metric like deaths per 1 million.

    Sweden is clocking in at 59 deaths per 1 million

    USA is at 36 deaths per 1 million.

    Italy is at 273 & Spain is at 295.

    Taiwan & New Zealand is at 0.2.

    Source is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (and data is dynamic as is fluid).

    Summary:

    1. If you looking at absolute deaths, then you are missing the point. Based on deaths per 1 million, Sweden is doing a horrible job at Wuhan Virus containment.

    2. You need to be careful about the data as certain countries do not have enough tests so Wuhan Virus related deaths are not being picked up.
    There is more to the equation than absolute deaths from the virus itself recorded today. What kind of metric are you going to use to account for all the lives destroyed by destroying our economy? This will be hard to measure, but this will result in shorter life spans, suicides, divorce and other hardships.

    I mean the granddaughter of John F Kennedy and her 12 year old son died last week because of social isolation, which was a direct result of coronavirus. Due to social isolation orders, they retreated from their DC home to their summer home near the Chesapeake Bay, and died tragically in it canoe accident. If it had not been for social isolation, they would’ve been back in DC at the regular home and their son would’ve been going to school. So I guess you could say social isolation has indirectly just tragically killed a 12-year-old.

    For all those worried about saving every life, why do we allow cars on the road and people to drive to work? Every year 30,000 people in United States die in car wrecks, and every one of these deaths could be prevented if we wouldn’t let people drive, or have cars.

    Let’s wait to see how the Sweden experiment plays out, before we judge it. It’s still early. You’ve got to remember with social isolation most of what we’re looking at doing is “flattening the curve”; we might not be reducing the number of overall deaths. It could be that Sweden will have the same number of deaths as everybody else, but there’s will just be over a shorter period of time. We don’t know yet what will happen.

    But there’s no crisis going on in Sweden right now, except the liberals around the world up in arms that they might be trying something different, and it might work just as well as what everybody else is doing. The problem is their experiment could end early with all the political pressure they’re getting from all the liberals around the world calling them out. Liberals hate it when somebody does something different than what they want.

  2. #22
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    There is more to the equation than absolute deaths from the virus itself recorded today. What kind of metric are you going to use to account for all the lives destroyed by destroying our economy? This will be hard to measure, but this will result in shorter life spans, suicides, divorce and other hardships.

    I mean the granddaughter of John F Kennedy and her 12 year old son died last week because of social isolation, which was a direct result of coronavirus. Due to social isolation orders, they retreated from their DC home to their summer home near the Chesapeake Bay, and died tragically in it canoe accident. If it had not been for social isolation, they would’ve been back in DC at the regular home and their son would’ve been going to school. So I guess you could say social isolation has indirectly just tragically killed a 12-year-old.

    For all those worried about saving every life, why do we allow cars on the road and people to drive to work? Every year 30,000 people in United States die in car wrecks, and every one of these deaths could be prevented if we wouldn’t let people drive, or have cars.

    Let’s wait to see how the Sweden experiment plays out, before we judge it. It’s still early. You’ve got to remember with social isolation most of what we’re looking at doing is “flattening the curve”; we might not be reducing the number of overall deaths. It could be that Sweden will have the same number of deaths as everybody else, but there’s will just be over a shorter period of time. We don’t know yet what will happen.

    But there’s no crisis going on in Sweden right now, except the liberals around the world up in arms that they might be trying something different, and it might work just as well as what everybody else is doing. The problem is their experiment could end early with all the political pressure they’re getting from all the liberals around the world calling them out. Liberals hate it when somebody does something different than what they want.
    1. I treat all deaths the same, one is no more greater than another. How they die, no matter how tragic, is an equal death in my eyes.

    2. The death of JFK’s grand daughter & son was a boating accident, no more no less. It was independent of the Wuhan Virus although you are entitled to your post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy by linking two unrelated events.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post...go_propter_hoc

    3. Metrics are important because the writer of the National Review article was on drugs for not understanding what N. Taleb is telling us: Absence of evidence is NOT evidence of absence (of said data). The writer like many people DOES NOT understand exponential growth. Look at Japan that had avoided the Wuhan Virus and now is going through major national trauma. The CORRECT approach is to look at ACTUAL vs EXPECTATIONS and understand the difference. The John Hopkins model predict Taiwan to the be the SECOND worst Wuhan case after mainland China. But Taiwan had a blueprint and knew what it had to do because Taiwan has a painful experience from SARS 18 years ago

    Here is my POINT: after this Wuhan Virus, the smart gov’t will learn their lessons just like Taiwan did from SARS. N. Taleb has been writing about FRAGILE systems and FAT TAILS and Asymmetric outcomes (e.g. decidedly non-linear outcomes).

    We need a metric like Deaths per 1 million so gov’t can learn why some methods worked and some didn’t. Italy’s healthcare system was ranked 2nd best by WHO and the 2nd best healthcare system was no match for Wuhan Virus.

    In summary, here are my points:
    - this Wuhan Virus teaches us that we NEED TO CHANGE, and what to change will be determined by gov’ts and individuals and that is why we need the CORRECT METRIC
    - every live lost is equal ... some nameless person is just as important as JFK’s grand daughter
    - I understand randomness very well (thanks to N Taleb and his seminal book “Fooled by Randomness”) ... we are all going to die at some point, and many times it is OUT OF OUR CONTROL. We also live in a world where RANDOM things happen and can kill us. Wuhan Virus is a RANDOM event, no more no less and lots of people died due to this RANDOM event. It was nothing personal per D Ruiz (or “Four Agreements”).

    In my opinion, this is Nature reminding us of the consequences of continuing encroachment on the planet and over population of human beings. Just like the Spanish Influenza, the Wuhan Virus was an accident in the making. However, #MainlandChinaLiedandPeopleDied

    Btw, Sweden is a mess. The analogy is the tip of the iceberg or you (and that writer) are only seeing 10% of the problem ... absence of evidence (the unseen 90%) is not evidence of absence (that the unseen 90% doesn’t exist).

  3. #23
    When the WORLD reviews the Wuhan Virus after the pandemic has been resolved, there will be A LOT of hatred directed towards mainland China and how it harmed the rest of the world. For example, how mainland China pressured WHO to delay calling the Wuhan Virus a pandemic. How mainland China pressured WHO to exclude or freeze out Taiwan that had a wealth of expertise due Taiwan’s really bad episode of SARS.

    Expect a lot of boycotts at the personal level to avoid buying goods made in mainland China as punishment for mainland China’s lies and failure to act as a global citizen.

    Btw, here is a YouTube video on how Taiwan beat the odds on Wuhan Virus and expect other governments to follow in Taiwan’s footsteps to prepare for the next pandemic.



    And here is Bill Gate’s Ted talk warning us about the next major virus:



    A lot of people saw this Wuhan Virus or equivalent pandemic coming: Bill Gates, N. Taleb, etc.

  4. #24
    1. N Taleb wrote in “Fooled by Randomness” an example of how we will never die. If we look back at our own history, we never died. So if we used backward or historical data, it will predict that we won’t die. Now, that was stupid because we will die and the correct way of looking at things is based on expectations.

    I gave that book to my friends and many were poker players. I was surprised to get feedback that other poker players were also reading that book back in 2001 & 2002.

    It was really stupid for people to look at limited data and extrapolate or use said limited data to justify an outcome or argument. Taleb is currently warning against “evidence based” arguments since we are only seeing limited data (and as I have stated, he has been doing this since 2001 when “Fooled by Randomness” hit the book stands).

    2. Death rates per 1 million reached 86 for Sweden and that death rate is growing. Based on death rates (if you ignore small countries due to bias effect), Sweden is in 9th place based “adjusted” worst death rates in the world. It’s hard to justify Sweden is doing great with the 9th highest adjusted death rate.

    Denmark is much lower at 43 due to it’s social distancing policies.

    USA is at 54.

    Then you look at mask wearing countries like S. Korea at 4 deaths per million & Taiwan at 0.3 deaths per million. Recall these are countries next to the Wuhan epic center.

    The above data came from worldometers.com

    In summary: You have people who don’t understand basic math like expectations, exponential growth, etc. You also have people who don’t understand basic logic when Taleb is saying “absence of evidence is not evidence of absence” ... again, not observing the data (e.g. evidenced based arguments) is not the same as the data doesn’t exist. Again, the best analogy would be “the tip of the iceberg” as in you are only seeing 10% of the problem.

    One more thing, this pandemic is not a black swan event; it was a white swan event as so many people have forecasted it. For example, Taiwan was preparing for it for 16+ years.

  5. #25
    Originally Posted by Ex-AP View Post
    1. N Taleb wrote in “Fooled by Randomness” an example of how we will never die. If we look back at our own history, we never died. So if we used backward or historical data, it will predict that we won’t die. Now, that was stupid because we will die and the correct way of looking at things is based on expectations.

    I gave that book to my friends and many were poker players. I was surprised to get feedback that other poker players were also reading that book back in 2001 & 2002.

    It was really stupid for people to look at limited data and extrapolate or use said limited data to justify an outcome or argument. Taleb is currently warning against “evidence based” arguments since we are only seeing limited data (and as I have stated, he has been doing this since 2001 when “Fooled by Randomness” hit the book stands).

    2. Death rates per 1 million reached 86 for Sweden and that death rate is growing. Based on death rates (if you ignore small countries due to bias effect), Sweden is in 9th place based “adjusted” worst death rates in the world. It’s hard to justify Sweden is doing great with the 9th highest adjusted death rate.

    Denmark is much lower at 43 due to it’s social distancing policies.

    USA is at 54.

    Then you look at mask wearing countries like S. Korea at 4 deaths per million & Taiwan at 0.3 deaths per million. Recall these are countries next to the Wuhan epic center.

    The above data came from worldometers.com

    In summary: You have people who don’t understand basic math like expectations, exponential growth, etc. You also have people who don’t understand basic logic when Taleb is saying “absence of evidence is not evidence of absence” ... again, not observing the data (e.g. evidenced based arguments) is not the same as the data doesn’t exist. Again, the best analogy would be “the tip of the iceberg” as in you are only seeing 10% of the problem.

    One more thing, this pandemic is not a black swan event; it was a white swan event as so many people have forecasted it. For example, Taiwan was preparing for it for 16+ years.
    It’s good to hear this is a white swan event and not some black swan. That makes me feel much safer. Lol

    As far as Sweden, 86 deaths out of a million doesn’t sound like some Armageddon. And they aren’t losing lives or destroying lives because they’ve shut down their economy. I wonder how that’s factoring into the equation.

    Like I said, it’s still early. Sweden is going with the group immunization approach and taking their deaths in a spike (because their hospitals have been able to handle it), rather than speading them out over 18 months to 3 years like the rest of the countries appear to be doing. In the end, their death rate might turn out to be the same as other countries.

    And let’s be clear on who’s dying. It’s not random people in their population; it’s basically the super old and people with compromised systems. And yes this does matters. This is not like the Spanish flu of 1918 which took out all people, even young and healthy ones.

    I found out an interesting statistic about Italy. 27% of the people who have died from coronavirus in Italy are over 90. I didn’t even know that many people lived that long.

    There’s also some interesting articles how every year Italy has about 5 to 10 times the death rate for the flu as any other European country. It sounds like Italy just has a lot of old people. And a lot of them smoke too, which doesn’t help the situation.

    If we had the same death rate for the flu as Italy, we would be knocking off over 300,000 people a year for the flu. About 65,000 people die from the flu every year (or at least in 2016) in Italy and Italy’s population is only 60 million.

    I’m still pulling for Sweden. I think they’ve got the right approach to this problem. It’s measured social isolation but nothing out-of-control. It’s trusting people, and letting their economy still function somewhat normally. And if someone in Sweden still wants to hibernate in their bunker for the next 18 months like KJ is doing, there is no restrictions against it.

  6. #26
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    It’s good to hear this is a white swan event and not some black swan. That makes me feel much safer. Lol

    As far as Sweden, 86 deaths out of a million doesn’t sound like some Armageddon. And they aren’t losing lives or destroying lives because they’ve shut down their economy. I wonder how that’s factoring into the equation.

    Like I said, it’s still early. Sweden is going with the group immunization approach and taking their deaths in a spike (because their hospitals have been able to handle it), rather than speading them out over 18 months to 3 years like the rest of the countries appear to be doing. In the end, their death rate might turn out to be the same as other countries.

    And let’s be clear on who’s dying. It’s not random people in their population; it’s basically the super old and people with compromised systems. And yes this does matters. This is not like the Spanish flu of 1918 which took out all people, even young and healthy ones.

    I found out an interesting statistic about Italy. 27% of the people who have died from coronavirus in Italy are over 90. I didn’t even know that many people lived that long.

    There’s also some interesting articles how every year Italy has about 5 to 10 times the death rate for the flu as any other European country. It sounds like Italy just has a lot of old people. And a lot of them smoke too, which doesn’t help the situation.

    If we had the same death rate for the flu as Italy, we would be knocking off over 300,000 people a year for the flu. About 65,000 people die from the flu every year (or at least in 2016) in Italy and Italy’s population is only 60 million.

    I’m still pulling for Sweden. I think they’ve got the right approach to this problem. It’s measured social isolation but nothing out-of-control. It’s trusting people, and letting their economy still function somewhat normally. And if someone in Sweden still wants to hibernate in their bunker for the next 18 months like KJ is doing, there is no restrictions against it.
    Your comment of “As far as Sweden, 86 deaths out of a million doesn’t sound like some Armageddon“ is probably one of the most inhumane, insensitive comments I’ve read since the Wuhan virus started.

    Enough said.

  7. #27
    Originally Posted by Ex-AP View Post
    Denmark is much lower at 43 due to it’s social distancing policies.

    USA is at 54.
    Ex-AP, you don’t see these comments as being insensitive? You seem to be implying that 43 or 54 people dying per million is acceptable. Who made you God to say what is an acceptable amount of deaths?

    And you took my comment out of context. My point was Sweden has more deaths now because they’re not going the route of “flattening the curve”, like other countries. What does “flattening the curve” mean? It means spreading out the deaths over a longer period of time....and making the economy and people suffer over a longer period. You call that compassion?

    In the end, it could be that Sweden will have the same number of deaths per million as the rest of the world. Their deaths will just come over a shorter period of time. It’s still early so we need to see how this plays out. And the people of Sweden are supporting this approach. Don’t they get a voice in their own country? Or do they have to listen to all the far-left liberals around the world trying to impose their values on their country?

    I get it, we’re in tough times. You’ve now given all the stats on how bad it is several times, so now tell us what your approach would be going forward? Is you’re approach just spreading out the deaths over a longer period of time, staying inside and not doing anything for the next 18 months so nobody dies? I did read where we have fewer deaths due to car wrecks so I guess if your only goal is to save every life possible, it’s working. I guess your solution would be to just camp out inside and not go anywhere ever, except to eat. And then only walk.

    Shutting down the economy should be factored into the equation. This destroys lives, causes divorces and suicides, shortens life spans, etc? What’s the cost of that? Or don’t you care about these people?

    And are you okay with the hundreds of thousands of people who die from the flu each year? Many of these deaths could be avoided if we put in place social isolation policies every year. Do you see coronavirus deaths as being worse than flu deaths?

    I’ve asked a lot of tough questions. I’d be interested in your answers. Thanks!

  8. #28
    I'm interested in how this Swedish approach works out. I think that it is pretty risky with all we don't know yet. How resistant the recovered will be and how long any immunity will last is still an open question.

    Having said that, Sweden does have some things going for it. I read that 40% of their population live in single person households without any kids. This must significantly reduce transmission when compared to other places which have multigenerational households. Add that to the healthcare system and worker's widespread access to sick leave and I can see how Sweden might get a better outcome from a modified "let the virus run its course" approach than some other places.

  9. #29
    Sweden’s death rate per million is now at 88.

    It was at 59 earlier in this thread and then became 86. I wonder what number makes it the Armageddon number.

    I am just posting and sharing factual information. I didn’t create the information.

    I understand some people can’t handle factual information.

  10. #30
    Originally Posted by Ex-AP View Post
    Sweden’s death rate per million is now at 88.

    It was at 59 earlier in this thread and then became 86. I wonder what number makes it the Armageddon number.

    I am just posting and sharing factual information. I didn’t create the information.

    I understand some people can’t handle factual information.
    More ignorant blather.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  11. #31
    Originally Posted by Ex-AP View Post
    Sweden’s death rate per million is now at 88.

    It was at 59 earlier in this thread and then became 86. I wonder what number makes it the Armageddon number.

    I am just posting and sharing factual information. I didn’t create the information.

    I understand some people can’t handle factual information.
    Ex-AP, I can handle factual information, but lets use a little common sense here. I don't know what Armageddon looks like, but I expect it's more than twice the number of deaths you yourself appear to see as acceptable. This is just using common sense. Me personally, I'd put Armageddon more in the 20 to 100X the death rate of normal. I'm sure some might put it at 10X, and I expect some would put it at only 5X.

    But I doubt if anybody, but you, would put Armageddon at 2 times the deaths rate that you consider normal. Btw, I looked up Armageddon and Wikipedia didn't have any hard numbers on how many deaths over normal qualifies as Armageddon, so we'll just have to use some common sense here (this means we can't ask any liberals for their opinion - that's a joke).

    I'd also look at who is dying? I found out those dying in Sweden are not from the general population, so the people safe socializing in Sweden at restaurants and bars are not dying, young kids gong to school are not dying, and people going to work are not dying. Who is dying? After reading a lot of articles, I found out it's mostly older people in nursing homes. It's hard to find this information, since the media wants you to believe it's random healthy people dying due to Sweden not being in "lock down".

    This is where Sweden made a mistake and they've acknowledged that. They did not "lock down" their nursing homes (meaning people visiting them) until April 1st. If they had stopped people from visiting nursing homes much earlier, Sweden would probably be having comparable number of deaths to other countries. Btw, no country has got this perfect.

    It took a lot of digging to find all this out, because the media likes to misrepresent the situation. Then their information gets into the hands of gullible people like you, who end up spreading it along. Point being, your data is factual, but it doesn't tell the whole story. And now you know the rest of the story.

  12. #32
    Great stat from Tucker Carlson last night.

    More American Males die of Breast Cancer each year than have American Men under 65 who died from Coronavirus so far.

    Amazing stat.

  13. #33
    I found a good article on Sweden today. This article looks at the Sweden situation and compares it to the state-enforced-lockdowns. It looks like you can take the statistics and shape them however you want to support your position.

    https://reason.com/2020/04/17/in-swe...-the-long-run/

    I particularly liked these two quotes in the article:

    - Herd immunity might yet beat herd mentality.

    - The average age of the dead has been 81, which is close to our average life expectancy.

  14. #34

  15. #35
    Redietz' head is exploding!
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  16. #36
    If overall death rates are the same year over year for a given month (for example Apr-2019 vs Apr-2020), then it would suggest that a significant number of deaths getting tallied as Covid-19 deaths are actually deaths from other causes that are getting re-classified as deaths from Covid-19. For example, under current CDC policy, if some 25 year old was pancaked as a result of getting t-boned by a big-rig and it was found during the autopsy that they tested positive for Covid-19 (or its antibodies) then it would be classified as a covid-19 death and the headlines would read "25 year old succumbs to covid-19 virus".

  17. #37
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    If overall death rates are the same year over year for a given month (for example Apr-2019 vs Apr-2020), then it would suggest that a significant number of deaths getting tallied as Covid-19 deaths are actually deaths from other causes that are getting re-classified as deaths from Covid-19. For example, under current CDC policy, if some 25 year old was pancaked as a result of getting t-boned by a big-rig and it was found during the autopsy that they tested positive for Covid-19 (or its antibodies) then it would be classified as a covid-19 death and the headlines would read "25 year old succumbs to covid-19 virus".
    Those stats should be interesting when we get them. I wonder how long before the April 2020 stats come out.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  18. #38
    Number of deaths for leading causes of death 2017
    Heart disease: 647,457
    Cancer: 599,108
    Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
    Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
    Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
    Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
    Diabetes: 83,564
    Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
    Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
    Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

    CV19 deaths would fall under at least two of these categories.
    Keep your friends close, keep your drinks closer...

  19. #39
    For those that care about seeing how a country can handle this successfully without locking down, here's another article from BBC news on it.

    I liked the title: "Coronavirus: Has Sweden got its science right?"

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52395866

  20. #40
    Originally Posted by Ex-AP View Post
    When the WORLD reviews the Wuhan Virus after the pandemic has been resolved, there will be A LOT of hatred directed towards mainland China and how it harmed the rest of the world. For example, how mainland China pressured WHO to delay calling the Wuhan Virus a pandemic. How mainland China pressured WHO to exclude or freeze out Taiwan that had a wealth of expertise due Taiwan’s really bad episode of SARS.

    Expect a lot of boycotts at the personal level to avoid buying goods made in mainland China as punishment for mainland China’s lies and failure to act as a global citizen.

    Btw, here is a YouTube video on how Taiwan beat the odds on Wuhan Virus and expect other governments to follow in Taiwan’s footsteps to prepare for the next pandemic.



    And here is Bill Gate’s Ted talk warning us about the next major virus:



    A lot of people saw this Wuhan Virus or equivalent pandemic coming: Bill Gates, N. Taleb, etc.
    I like the way Taiwan handled the problem. They were on it in January. In the U.S. we had people in February, like Pelosi, DeBlasio, New York Health Officials telling people it was okay to go into crowded areas. They were doing this after Trump banned travel from China. Events like Mardi Gras didn't get cancelled.

    I'm trying to figure out a way to blame Trump for it but I guess I'm just not liberal enough. He's not a doctor or a scientist. He was completely at the mercy of the experts/advisers around him.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

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