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Thread: video poker machines not random?

  1. #1
    I played some video poker last night and one of the regulars at Rincon was sitting next to me. We exchanged greetings, and I told him I finally hit a royal after 170,000 hands.

    Quickly the discussion turned to "lucky machines" and machines that "aren't completely random."

    Then this regular made a couple of points, saying:

    The machines can be rigged, by altering just a few hands to keep them "within tolerance" of expected randomness.

    Where did we hear this before?

    When I questioned him about it, he said he knew people who worked in the casinos and they told him the machines are not completely random.

    Sound familiar?

    So I asked him why he played if he didn't think the machines were completely random?

    He said the idea is to try to be in the right place at the right time to catch the machine when it does deliver a win.

    Then I explained to him that unlike slots, the video poker games must choose from a random shuffle of 52 cards... etc, etc.

    He said some of the shuffles and some of the deals and draws are not totally random.

    That got me to think -- if we were to conduct a survey of a general population of video poker players, how many would believe that the machines are completely random, and how many would think there is some hanky-panky?

  2. #2
    It would be no contest. Most would quickly say the machines are not 100% random. It's very obvious. And this sentiment would be all over the Internet if it were not for the few famous names who make money misleading players about the truth and their minion math geeks who spread the misrepresentations thru their blind & anal theories.

    What that regular said about why he played anyway....that's another way of saying why I've always kept playing. IE, they are "random enough" and the big hits will still come.

    BTW, remember that two year dry spell I had with straight flushes that ended with one recently? Well, last night on quarters I had three inside SF draws and two open-ended SF draws. I got zilch on the two open-ended ones....but I hit ALL THREE of the insiders. Now exactly HOW RANDOM are these things again??

  3. #3
    Rob I understand your position that the machines are not truly random. It was the subject of our first video interview, and it was that subject that first prompted my interest in interviewing you and finding out about you and your play and system.

    Here is that video for those who didn't see it:



    while I understand your position, I don't understand what is the connection with getting or not getting straight flushes? How can you determine that a machine is rigged or not random when you do or don't get straight flushes? Remember that when I couldn't get a Royal in 170-thousand hands, I was hitting straight flushes "right and left" and even got four SFs in two hours... at the same time you were hitting royals and you weren't getting the SFs.

    So my question might be: how do you know you're on a rigged machine or just that "random" is biting you in the butt and the wallet?
    Last edited by Alan Mendelson; 01-14-2012 at 09:20 AM.

  4. #4
    The SF example from last night alone doesn't mean much. It's the combination of these type examples experienced over the years along with my discussions with an IGT engineer and my personal machine testing both in the casinos and on one in my garage that makes the determination for me.

    The second point is in using "rigged" when referring to machines not being completely random. They are not rigged or illegal or anything not allowed by the regulations which govern them. The "the regs require 100% random programming" is simply one of the lies perpetuated, likely out of uneducated ignorance, by the AP world.

  5. #5
    I've broached this subject on occasion.

    The concept of "all machines being random" is something out of a Disney movie. Here's why:

    1) Believing this requires believing that, at any given time, no machines have physical snafus, much less consciously programmed biases. You mean out of all of the thousands of machines, at any given time, not one is flawed?

    2) Drawings have been rigged in Las Vegas. There is no reason to believe, properly motivated (and especially in tough times), some slot manager isn't going to have some machines rigged.

    3) Gaming checks the chips of each machine, if they are on schedule, about once every two years. They are never on schedule. If the Gaming review schedule is leaked to casinos by anyone in the office, the casinos can obviously make things right for inspection. So the schedule itself, if everyone is on the up-and-up, is ridiculously slow, and really, how likely is it that nobody leaks the schedule?

  6. #6
    More:

    The arguments made for no machines being rigged are that, "The casinos make enough money. Why would they rig and risk being caught -- the fines and public relations would be devastating." These arguments are flawed -- casinos have been caught fixing drawings. No fine ever bankrupted a casino, and nobody even remembers which casinos did it. Moreover, with a 4 billion dollar loss, the casinos are not making enough money.


    If I were a slot manager, I know when and where I would rig video poker machines. It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out under which conditions and who you want to hurt with the rigged machines. I would be stunned if this isn't done, because it's not all that tricky.

  7. #7
    I play video poker a ton at an Indian casino here in California and have accidentally seen the payback percentages from a slot tech at the bar while he was working on a machine. It read 80% on a variety of different games of jacks or better variety very fishy.. The reason for this is most vp games pay in the mid 90% range at the lowest so it makes you wonder. I have seen the patterns my self on the lower denomination 5/10 cent machines the 4 of a kind is a rarity in the same game type which for me is bonus poker deluxe that pays 40 bucks for 4 of a kind vs the quarters which happens mostly as expected. Here is probably how they do it the game works on a rng chip from a a 52 card deck which isn't a deck at all in fact it's nothing but numbers representing each card. As you deal it spits our 5 numbers that represent cards. From here you trash whatever and it either continues randomizing the remaining 47 then selects the remaining more as you press deal once again,or it has done it all originally and the discard is all for show. They can program the rng to be more variant which means less pairs and more outside draws. No pairs means no quads and no trips which also mean way less quads. How they have variances within a game remains a mystery? it's all most likely programming types and it can be switched on a server instantaneously. A slot ambassador or manager would find it ideal for the bottom line to have confidence that players will keep feeding the machines by profiling them,or do this on slow days. They have psychology degrees and want people to win at peak hours to buy more booze and entice other bystanders to sit down at that bank of machines. As a player you need to understand this and sit with them as the bank of machines are probably all turned to cycle A or high % back which also turns on the variances of flops for more trips which means more quads.. Otherwise your a sitting duck because your playing a falsely advertised game where the cycle should on average be 1/400 for quads,yet it's nowhere to be seen over many sessions or 4000+ hands. If this is the case then you know your being duped.

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Rob I understand your position that the machines are not truly random. It was the subject of our first video interview, and it was that subject that first prompted my interest in interviewing you and finding out about you and your play and system.

    Here is that video for those who didn't see it:



    while I understand your position, I don't understand what is the connection with getting or not getting straight flushes? How can you determine that a machine is rigged or not random when you do or don't get straight flushes? Remember that when I couldn't get a Royal in 170-thousand hands, I was hitting straight flushes "right and left" and even got four SFs in two hours... at the same time you were hitting royals and you weren't getting the SFs.

    So my question might be: how do you know you're on a rigged machine or just that "random" is biting you in the butt and the wallet?
    I realize this was recorded a few years ago and shows just how much nonsense I actually missed.

    As a complete outsider, occasional stalker simply cause I can't take the amount of fn bullshit on gambling forums in large doses, and just a personal opinion, if I were you ROB, avoid all live recordings at all costs.

  9. #9
    Rob, two questions:

    1. Why was the RNG developed, what was its original purpose?

    2. What would be the purpose of gaffing a chip when they could just change the payscale?

  10. #10
    These clowns think "random" is the same as "equal distribution." Heaven forbid if they don't get their 4 oak in exactly four hundred and whatever hands, the damn game is "rigged!"

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Rob, two questions:

    1. Why was the RNG developed, what was its original purpose?

    2. What would be the purpose of gaffing a chip when they could just change the payscale?
    It's baffling why people can never fathom that casinos do in fact alter the "randomness" of vp machines, when cruise ships, foreign casinos, and even some or many of the Indian casinos and states do it right under everyone's noses. And why do they do it? Because they can, obviously, which means higher profit margins!

    I understand why "AP's" would never want to believe in the obvious happening. Their whole world of gambling by playing vp would go on tilt and it wouldn't make sense to them. Again, it's the difference between reality and theory. Machines in NV. and elsewhere are intermittently tinkered with, that we know. It's done on a "random" and very well coordinated basis, and don't think for a minute the the NGC or any other so-called "regulatory authority" isn't indirectly involved. People who believe differently are naiive. Casino doors will never shut, collecting taxes and jobs will always supersede any supposed "morals or ethics requirements", and business reality will ALWAYS win out over theoretical beliefs.

  12. #12
    It's a conundrum inside of an absurdity, as Yogi Berra might say. Naive players want to believe they can win despite the math, and slightly less naive players want to believe the math never gets tinkered with because they want to believe they can win.

    Native American casinos can do pretty much whatever the hell they want. You think the Canadian tribes, while running black market weaponry and selling drugs, won't tinker with the math of video poker machines? Puh-leese, Louise.

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    It's baffling why people can never fathom that casinos do in fact alter the "randomness" of vp machines, when cruise ships, foreign casinos, and even some or many of the Indian casinos and states do it right under everyone's noses. And why do they do it? Because they can, obviously, which means higher profit margins!

    I understand why "AP's" would never want to believe in the obvious happening. Their whole world of gambling by playing vp would go on tilt and it wouldn't make sense to them. Again, it's the difference between reality and theory. Machines in NV. and elsewhere are intermittently tinkered with, that we know. It's done on a "random" and very well coordinated basis, and don't think for a minute the the NGC or any other so-called "regulatory authority" isn't indirectly involved. People who believe differently are naiive. Casino doors will never shut, collecting taxes and jobs will always supersede any supposed "morals or ethics requirements", and business reality will ALWAYS win out over theoretical beliefs.
    Rob, besides IGT, are the other companies like Bally, Spielo, Aristocrat, WMS, Aruze, Summit, in on the crime too? And how about the many other gaming commisions? You know, the ones in the other states. Are they in on the crime too? It would seem to be a vast conspiracy to defraud the public. With thousands of people involved how do you think they have been able to pull such a vast fraud on the public for 40 years without being exposed by journalists like Alan?

  14. #14
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    It's baffling why people can never fathom that casinos do in fact alter the "randomness" of vp machines, when cruise ships, foreign casinos, and even some or many of the Indian casinos and states do it right under everyone's noses. And why do they do it? Because they can, obviously, which means higher profit margins!

    I understand why "AP's" would never want to believe in the obvious happening. Their whole world of gambling by playing vp would go on tilt and it wouldn't make sense to them. Again, it's the difference between reality and theory. Machines in NV. and elsewhere are intermittently tinkered with, that we know. It's done on a "random" and very well coordinated basis, and don't think for a minute the the NGC or any other so-called "regulatory authority" isn't indirectly involved. People who believe differently are naiive. Casino doors will never shut, collecting taxes and jobs will always supersede any supposed "morals or ethics requirements", and business reality will ALWAYS win out over theoretical beliefs.
    Rob, besides IGT, are the other companies like Bally, Spielo, Aristocrat, WMS, Aruze, Summit, in on the crime too? And how about the many other gaming commisions? You know, the ones in the other states. Are they in on the crime too? It would seem to be a vast conspiracy to defraud the public. With thousands of people involved how do you think they have been able to pull such a vast fraud on the public for 40 years without being exposed by journalists like Alan?
    Running off free play yesterday, I had a smoker sit next to me. Him and his wife were bouncing from machine to machine. I told him they were all the same. He gave me that lousy "they run on hot and cold cycles" bullshit. We debated for a minute as I told him the truth that there it's no such thing as these cycles. He left after losing his buy in bouncing from 25¢ to $1 games only to go to another machine. Him and his wife did this for about 15 minutes as I watched comically. They lost all their money. Such is life.

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Rob, two questions:

    1. Why was the RNG developed, what was its original purpose?

    2. What would be the purpose of gaffing a chip when they could just change the payscale?
    It's baffling why people can never fathom that casinos do in fact alter the "randomness" of vp machines, when cruise ships, foreign casinos, and even some or many of the Indian casinos and states do it right under everyone's noses. And why do they do it? Because they can, obviously, which means higher profit margins!

    I understand why "AP's" would never want to believe in the obvious happening. Their whole world of gambling by playing vp would go on tilt and it wouldn't make sense to them. Again, it's the difference between reality and theory. Machines in NV. and elsewhere are intermittently tinkered with, that we know. It's done on a "random" and very well coordinated basis, and don't think for a minute the the NGC or any other so-called "regulatory authority" isn't indirectly involved. People who believe differently are naiive. Casino doors will never shut, collecting taxes and jobs will always supersede any supposed "morals or ethics requirements", and business reality will ALWAYS win out over theoretical beliefs.
    What I can't get is how someone can go and play all day without a quad- come back another trip and hit 4-5 quads seemingly without effort or careful selection and not get it. I found out the hard way believing that if you just keep playing the same thing will happen every day.

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    It's baffling why people can never fathom that casinos do in fact alter the "randomness" of vp machines, when cruise ships, foreign casinos, and even some or many of the Indian casinos and states do it right under everyone's noses. And why do they do it? Because they can, obviously, which means higher profit margins!

    I understand why "AP's" would never want to believe in the obvious happening. Their whole world of gambling by playing vp would go on tilt and it wouldn't make sense to them. Again, it's the difference between reality and theory. Machines in NV. and elsewhere are intermittently tinkered with, that we know. It's done on a "random" and very well coordinated basis, and don't think for a minute the the NGC or any other so-called "regulatory authority" isn't indirectly involved. People who believe differently are naiive. Casino doors will never shut, collecting taxes and jobs will always supersede any supposed "morals or ethics requirements", and business reality will ALWAYS win out over theoretical beliefs.
    Rob, besides IGT, are the other companies like Bally, Spielo, Aristocrat, WMS, Aruze, Summit, in on the crime too? And how about the many other gaming commisions? You know, the ones in the other states. Are they in on the crime too? It would seem to be a vast conspiracy to defraud the public. With thousands of people involved how do you think they have been able to pull such a vast fraud on the public for 40 years without being exposed by journalists like Alan?
    Mickey, much as it pains me, I must point out that is a flawed counter-argument. Any of those same questions could be asked of the NSA, which employed thousands of people privy to the same information as Snowden. The movie overstated Snowden's exceptionalism by a large degree. All a casino would have to do to cheat is sub chips and know any inspecting body's schedule. Not that tough.

  17. #17
    All for profit businesses lie and cheat. It would be naive to think that a casino would not do the same. There is little chance that lawmakers, courts, government, etc. would kill the golden goose and "out" the casinos.

  18. #18
    Regnis, my old maxim is:

    To say no casinos cheat, one must decide no individual working for a casino has the motive, means, and opportunity to cheat. That is clearly absurd. The question isn't whether cheating occurs, but to what degree it occurs.

  19. #19
    Most casinos do not have the opportunity nor the means to cheat. They do not have the capability to program slots however they want. It is that simple.

  20. #20
    Foreign countries re-program vp machines. Cruise ships re-program vp machines. At least some Indian casinos re-program vp machines. Not that difficult. In well regulated venues it would require a more coordinated, more comprehensive effort. Money talks. Again, not that difficult.

    We have crooks, con artists, money manipulators, and scammers in virtually every aspect of business and life these days. To think casinos are exempt is like believing Tony Soprano is a nice guy because he gives money to his church.

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