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Thread: video poker machines not random?

  1. #141
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Stop Win/Stop Loss is actually a great strategy for negative expectation gamblers. It serves to cut down on playing time. The more you play the more you lose. The less you play the less you lose. But it is the opposite for positive expectation gamblers. The more they play the more they make. The less they play the less they make.
    I am just now recovering from believing this nonsense and I can't believe I fell for it.

  2. #142
    I've played some positive expectation video poker. The games returned more than 100%. But I lost. I guess the games were switched to "lose" by the eye in the sky when I was in the seat.

    Gee, I wish I could find a +EV game that worked like my personal ATM the way the APs can.

  3. #143
    Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Stop Win/Stop Loss is actually a great strategy for negative expectation gamblers. It serves to cut down on playing time. The more you play the more you lose. The less you play the less you lose. But it is the opposite for positive expectation gamblers. The more they play the more they make. The less they play the less they make.
    I am just now recovering from believing this nonsense and I can't believe I fell for it.
    The idea that one's personal statistical experience is more relevant to and representative of reality than the sum total of all stats occurring everywhere is just another of the great vanities homo sapiens has had a hard time shaking.

    The world revolves around us. Our sample of a 500,000 hands is more real than all hands everywhere because it's what we can see and experience directly. We look where the light shines.

  4. #144
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Stop Win/Stop Loss is actually a great strategy for negative expectation gamblers. It serves to cut down on playing time. The more you play the more you lose. The less you play the less you lose. But it is the opposite for positive expectation gamblers. The more they play the more they make. The less they play the less they make.
    I am just now recovering from believing this nonsense and I can't believe I fell for it.
    The idea that one's personal statistical experience is more relevant to and representative of reality than the sum total of all stats occurring everywhere is just another of the great vanities homo sapiens has had a hard time shaking.

    The world revolves around us. Our sample of a 500,000 hands is more real than all hands everywhere because it's what we can see and experience directly. We look where the light shines.
    If I were to make a guess, the development and playing of the single play strategy was enough of sampling to amply observe the cycles in a large time of playing and a guideline for the formulating of less serious but effective strategies. My one and only attempt starting at nickels was an eye opener.

  5. #145
    Do the APs really expect someone to keep pounding away at a positive expectation game if they're not winning?

    That's like standing your ground with your feet firmly placed in quicksand.

  6. #146
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Do the APs really expect someone to keep pounding away at a positive expectation game if they're not winning?

    That's like standing your ground with your feet firmly placed in quicksand.
    I do. And more often than not, I come out ahead on the play overall. Might be the first day on a play or months down the road....but most plays I've been on have been successful (making money). Although I can certainly see why someone wouldn't want to keep playing a game if they're down a significant amount.

  7. #147
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Do the APs really expect someone to keep pounding away at a positive expectation game if they're not winning?

    That's like standing your ground with your feet firmly placed in quicksand.
    I do. And more often than not, I come out ahead on the play overall. Might be the first day on a play or months down the road....but most plays I've been on have been successful (making money). Although I can certainly see why someone wouldn't want to keep playing a game if they're down a significant amount.
    They will never learn that what happened in the past has no affect on the future.

  8. #148
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Do the APs really expect someone to keep pounding away at a positive expectation game if they're not winning?

    That's like standing your ground with your feet firmly placed in quicksand.
    I do. And more often than not, I come out ahead on the play overall. Might be the first day on a play or months down the road....but most plays I've been on have been successful (making money). Although I can certainly see why someone wouldn't want to keep playing a game if they're down a significant amount.
    They will never learn that what happened in the past has no affect on the future.
    That's the exact same point I used to mock AP's with almost every week in my GT column whenever Wizard, Dancer, Hughes, Scott or any other "positive play junkie" made the laughable claim "I lost on that highly positive play, but I KNOW I'll be ahead sometime down the road and for sure, by the end of the year". These misguided people seem to think their theories work and/or sound good only one way.

    Yet they have no problem giving out passes to one another as failure strikes, just to keep their AP myth alive. Skip Hughes for years claimed he would make a living by quitting his job as a SC atty., moving to LV to play AP-vp, and using the +EV machines as his own personal ATM's. So what really happened? Yup....he died broke and disgraced while working for the State in Carson City, and his family needed Jean Scott to start a collection in order to pay for his funeral expenses.

    Just recently in Lake Tahoe I chatted with a close friend of the Dancer family. Seems that story Bob put out on why he and Shirley came face-to-face with that inevitable curse of habitual casino-goers--DIVORCE--wasn't entirely true....although Shirley DID beg him to respect her illness. Nope, now I hear they were having, are you ready, MONEY problems, as he continued to work and he continued to piss away every penny into the "+EV" poker machines. Which, of course, made no sense to her---a rational woman un-bewildered by the lure of video poker. Now naturally, Dancer can look back at all his work earnings going south as she served him up his deserved dish of "bye-bye more than half of your net worth!"

    And let's not forget about the wizard of ALL ap's....the WIZARD! who was forced into pleading for member cash in order to stay solvent. Lucky for him, while he found out the hard way and learned his own stark lesson about how +EV vp and "APing" was never anything more than a marketing-ploy state-of-mind, simple American capitalism and working his talents hard at mesmerizing gamblers with his unattainable theories, saved his bacon at just the right time.

    I could go on and on about how AP's have been suffering underneath their own silly loads of BS for years--least of all the WoV dropouts here who continue to create AP excuses while they lie about their ferocious gambling habits. But I do believe that inexperienced clown RS__ and his pal the brave jbjb, do an excellent ongoing great job of proving my point.

  9. #149
    What the APs overlook is that every play on a +EV video poker game is NOT positive. They can't comprehend the damage they are doing with each losing play because they are mesmerized by the long term... whatever that is.

    When you find a mortgage company that will let you finance a house with AP play then I will be convinced that there is such a thing as +EV gambling.

  10. #150
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    What the APs overlook is that every play on a +EV video poker game is NOT positive. They can't comprehend the damage they are doing with each losing play because they are mesmerized by the long term... whatever that is.

    When you find a mortgage company that will let you finance a house with AP play then I will be convinced that there is such a thing as +EV gambling.
    My friend, Tony Stark, says AP play not only exists, but it's given him a sweet ride.

    And Rob, don't you think it's a little, uh, weird, for a dude with bankruptcies to point out that another dude has -- get this -- MONEY problems? Pot calling kettle and all that....

  11. #151
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    What the APs overlook is that every play on a +EV video poker game is NOT positive. They can't comprehend the damage they are doing with each losing play because they are mesmerized by the long term... whatever that is.

    When you find a mortgage company that will let you finance a house with AP play then I will be convinced that there is such a thing as +EV gambling.
    My friend, Tony Stark, says AP play not only exists, but it's given him a sweet ride.

    And Rob, don't you think it's a little, uh, weird, for a dude with bankruptcies to point out that another dude has -- get this -- MONEY problems? Pot calling kettle and all that....
    While I understand why you have the need to make up an AP "success story", it's more than weird watching you once again attempting to scratch that insatiable itch about my filing a 1996 bk while I was an AP--and all the while trying to make it appear as if I were playing my very successful SPS anti-AP strategy while I was supposedly "going broke".

    Whenever anyone sees the need for someone to continuously twist a past event or concoct unsupportable reasoning--and believing how posting my real name (Argentino, as you so often have been rattled into doing) should somehow show vulnerabilities along with creating a "sigh of relief" in the offended poster's mind--all that does is identify the true amount of agitation you feel for not being able to impose a flawed ideology onto someone much more intelligent than you.

    That being said....I'd LOVE to compare your life--past, present, and today--with "girlfriend-in-your-60's and all--with how I live and all I've done in the past. But you won't ever do that, will you. You prefer an anonymous, unverifiable identity. One wonders how that eats away at you.....

  12. #152
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    What the APs overlook is that every play on a +EV video poker game is NOT positive. They can't comprehend the damage they are doing with each losing play because they are mesmerized by the long term... whatever that is.

    When you find a mortgage company that will let you finance a house with AP play then I will be convinced that there is such a thing as +EV gambling.
    My friend, Tony Stark, says AP play not only exists, but it's given him a sweet ride.

    And Rob, don't you think it's a little, uh, weird, for a dude with bankruptcies to point out that another dude has -- get this -- MONEY problems? Pot calling kettle and all that....
    While I understand why you have the need to make up an AP "success story", it's more than weird watching you once again attempting to scratch that insatiable itch about my filing a 1996 bk while I was an AP--and all the while trying to make it appear as if I were playing my very successful SPS anti-AP strategy while I was supposedly "going broke".

    Whenever anyone sees the need for someone to continuously twist a past event or concoct unsupportable reasoning--and believing how posting my real name (Argentino, as you so often have been rattled into doing) should somehow show vulnerabilities along with creating a "sigh of relief" in the offended poster's mind--all that does is identify the true amount of agitation you feel for not being able to impose a flawed ideology onto someone much more intelligent than you.

    That being said....I'd LOVE to compare your life--past, present, and today--with "girlfriend-in-your-60's and all--with how I live and all I've done in the past. But you won't ever do that, will you. You prefer an anonymous, unverifiable identity. One wonders how that eats away at you.....
    Not only THAT, but I had to look up Tony Stark- whose twitter quote was:" If gambling is an indicator of how much luck one has, then it's true-I have ZERO luck."
    Have you thought of shoveling manure?

  13. #153
    All I said was that you made an issue of an alleged money problem by Dancer while having utilized bankruptcy yourself to solve your own money problems. Why you would do that, knowing everyone would instantly make the same observation, is beyond me. Maybe you should recommend Dancer use bankruptcy himself.

    Also, it's stretching reality to assign a style of play (in this case, AP play) as a reason for your losing, and another style of play (the Singer stuff) as a reason for winning. Maybe the explanation is a thing called variance. For all we know, Dancer won with his AP style of play, then went all Rob Singer and lost for awhile, thereby creating "money problems." Maybe we should ask him.

    I never said my girlfriend was in her 60's, Rob. Despite your using one quotation mark, whatever that means, I never said that. You're off by a decade. If you wanted me to refer to you by Argentino, all you had to do was ask. I have rarely done so -- maybe once or twice in the last 500 posts. But that's okay, Mr. Argentino, I'll try to call you Mr. Argentino hence forward, since I am rattled.

    Anything else, Mr. Argentino?

    And damn, sling, I didn't know Tony Stark had a twitter account.

  14. #154
    Perhaps there are 3 Tony Starks? I made sure not to confuse him with the Ironman Tony Starks.

  15. #155
    Let me sort through some of the comments here:

    1. Rob says he filed bankruptcy when playing the traditional and conventional AP methodology and NOT when using his system.

    2. Rob told us he won using HIS system and NOT the traditional AP way.

    3. Redietz, I doubt (really doubt) Bob Dancer would use Rob's system. Why would you even suggest it?

    4. Why is their gossip about Dancer here anyway? He's not here to comment and except for Rob's allegation has anyone seen anything that indicates Dancer had money problems?

  16. #156
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Let me sort through some of the comments here:

    1. Rob says he filed bankruptcy when playing the traditional and conventional AP methodology and NOT when using his system.

    2. Rob told us he won using HIS system and NOT the traditional AP way.

    3. Redietz, I doubt (really doubt) Bob Dancer would use Rob's system. Why would you even suggest it?

    4. Why is their gossip about Dancer here anyway? He's not here to comment and except for Rob's allegation has anyone seen anything that indicates Dancer had money problems?
    Rob is an old gossip. Worse than little old ladies.

  17. #157
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Let me sort through some of the comments here:

    1. Rob says he filed bankruptcy when playing the traditional and conventional AP methodology and NOT when using his system.

    2. Rob told us he won using HIS system and NOT the traditional AP way.

    3. Redietz, I doubt (really doubt) Bob Dancer would use Rob's system. Why would you even suggest it?

    4. Why is their gossip about Dancer here anyway? He's not here to comment and except for Rob's allegation has anyone seen anything that indicates Dancer had money problems?
    Rob is an old gossip. Worse than little old ladies.
    He's also a habitual liar. Remember, he once posed as a truck driver...

  18. #158
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Just recently in Lake Tahoe I chatted with a close friend of the Dancer family.
    If he was such a close friend of Dancer why would he even talk to you when you've done nothing but smear and slander Dancer for years. You should do what you always tell others to do, prove the story is true.

  19. #159
    My conclusion is pretty simple after years of research and it has to do with the rng numbers 1-52 and cycles on a mainframe server. If the machine is as it should be then the psuedo rng would flow through the full 52 numbers at 1/1000 of a second and select 4-9-2-7-10 all being in a grouping. This could be as a full cycle at 96% double double- k-4-k-a-9 It's a pair good flop! It seems it would be fair enough to just let it be but if it's slow then they might have cycle B.. This cycle is random post flop but pre flop has a different algorithm allocated to specific numbers. The flop dictates future possibilities and with programming can instantly turn a 96% machine into a 84% or worse!

    It's pretty simple if the machine is programmed to now 38 groupings,or 52 in a specific grouped order more so then you might see more A-2-9-7-q.. Not a great flop in most games you hold the aq and in some the ace going for runners. After the hold it just picks from the full remainder and your odds suck from there.Regardless of the pay-table pairs are generally king in VP and if the rng happens to have it set to pick a sub set 2-15,or 28-48 and lands 2 as ''ace of clubs'' And then never pick the set of 20-25 which has an ace going with ''2'' as indicator then you might have rigged there. I notice when I'm winning I get more pairs often which translate into eventual 3 of a kinds/from there it's 1/40 for quads and this is what vp is all about. You reduce pairs pre flop and your going to negate quads from the traditional 1/426 to 1/1,400 or worse just from a button on a server machine. The thing is being casinos love big winners and long odds program B may always have 2-3 royal flush draws as a probability so jackpots can still happen and they like them odds and don't care.

  20. #160
    Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Stop Win/Stop Loss is actually a great strategy for negative expectation gamblers. It serves to cut down on playing time. The more you play the more you lose. The less you play the less you lose. But it is the opposite for positive expectation gamblers. The more they play the more they make. The less they play the less they make.
    I am just now recovering from believing this nonsense and I can't believe I fell for it.
    Yeah, much better to believe that you can beat negative games but can't beat positive games. What a fucking idiot!
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

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