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Thread: Proper Numbers for Coronavirus

  1. #1
    Here's a couple of links that highlight the unlikely underestimation of deaths due to the virus.

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...ross-countries

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...mentsContainer


    When we are clear of this, medical demographers will be able to properly assign numbers. We are in the middle of a significant undercount internationally.

  2. #2
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Here's a couple of links that highlight the unlikely underestimation of deaths due to the virus.

    https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...ross-countries

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...mentsContainer


    When we are clear of this, medical demographers will be able to properly assign numbers. We are in the middle of a significant undercount internationally.
    Redietz, I’ll concede the number who have died from Covid-19 is undercounted currently. Why? Because old people are constantly dying in nursing homes, so it’s going to take some time to figure out if some 87 year old died due to the coronavirus or some bacteria or something else. When you’re 87, it doesn’t take much to take you out.

    My point (made somewhat sarcastly) is the dead people undercounted won’t be the middle age or young ones. It will be the old ones, who are mostly in warehouses (I mean nursing homes) waiting to die.

    When the Covid-19 numbers get revised after this is all over, no one‘s going to mention that the majority of people that got added to the death total probably had one of eight things that could’ve taken them out. I can assure you if they had coronavirus, this will be listed as their cause of death.

    I personally think there should be some rules on what is classified as a Covid-19 death. 10% of the first 100 Covid-19 deaths in US were over 90. One of my rules would be at the very least you’ve got to be under 85 to get counted as a Covid-19 death. That would probably lower the death total by at least 25%.

    This virus is NOT like the Spanish flu back in 1918, which was taking out a lot of middle-aged people and children. For the most part, these people are being spared with coronavirus, so let’s put this thing in perspective.

    Just something to think about when people see the death totals climb over time. Most will be people that were in warehouses, a couple days away from “kicking the bucket” and going to “Old Glory”.

  3. #3
    Give it up, Red.
    Stoogeboy maxpigpenn = professional nickel keno player and KJocchio's lover.

  4. #4
    I've posted this a couple times now - the key will be to look at overall deaths compared for a given month of 2020 on or after April 2020 against the same month of 2019. For example total deaths in May 2020 versus that of May 2019. If the total deaths are about the same for the two months under comparison, then it is obvious that a significant portion of covid-19 deaths that have been tallied were deaths from non-covid-19 causes where the person had the virus (or tested positive for the virus or antibodies to it). One in four people who has the virus is asymptomatic IIRC.

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