Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 31

Thread: Trump vs Biden polling

  1. #1
    First, because I live in Las Vegas, this thread belongs in the Las Vegas section.

    Ok, so just lets see if there is anyone capable of objective political poll discussion or if it will just turn into the Trump is great, Biden sucks, rah, rah type crap (which is likely).

    We are about 6 months out and the polls look pretty bad for Trump. Averages of over a dozen polls in the last month have Trump at about 41-42%. This in itself is terrible news for an incumbent. History shows that incumbent polling at 46% or less, win re-election less than 5% of the time. 46% is the cut off. at 47% an incumbents chances increase. If I remember correctly the reasoning is that people know who the incumbent is more so that a challenger. So if they aren't for the incumbent several months out, they are unlikely to break for him/her at the end. So that is the history.

    Now several polls in the last few days, including Suffolk/USA Today and a Fox News poll have Trump polling even lower at 38% and 39% respectfully. The Suffolk poll is pretty extensive. The results show Biden at 44% and Trump 38%. This is interesting because while Trump has dropped pretty significantly only a small portion of that support has gone to Biden. Most of that Trump drop went to undecided. This tells you that many people, like myself aren't real happy with these two choices, a 74 year old and a 78 year old, either of whom would be the oldest person elected to the office of President. Reagan was 73 when he won his second term.

    In a normal election cycle these two candidates would be locked in with no way to replace either, other than possible death of one of them. But I am not so sure these are "normal" times. I have had this growing feeling for a while now, that come November this will not be Trump vs Biden, but that one or even both could be replaced.

    On the republican side, it would not surprise me if Trump just decided he has had enough, especially if poll numbers continue to look bad. He is not going to want to suffer a lopsided loss. And frankly I don't think he ever cared for the job that much. He likes the attention not the job. I could see him, putting one of his Trumpian spins on why he has decided not to run. If this were to happen, I guess Mike pence would inherit the nomination, although there would be at least some discussion of someone else, like a Nicki Haley.

    On the Democratic side, it gets even weirder. They are only half way through the official nominating process. Many states have postponed their primary elections and New York just cancelled theirs completely after initially postponing. Other states are likely to follow with the cancelling. That puts you in uncharted territory. Biden doesn't officially have enough delegates to be the nomination. It is assumed the Dems would just go ahead and anoint him the nomination, but it leaves open the possibility that the powers that be could alter course, with or without Biden's blessing (probably without).

    If there was a way that I felt comfortable betting I would bet with decent odds that one or the other, Trump or Biden doesn't make it to the General election. With the right odds, I might even put some money that neither do. But I don't bet online, I don't trust that for significant money and Nevada Casinos don't take wagers on elections. So I guess I will just watch and see.
    Last edited by kewlJ; 04-28-2020 at 02:52 PM.

  2. #2
    Joe's gonna have to reign in that dementia to stand a fighting chance

  3. #3
    When told about the results of recent presidential election polls, Joe Biden said "If it were me, because of that way of thinking, you see, lets get real here, the very reason, and I'm not saying its absolutely true, is because, if we do it that way, instead of doing nothing, perhaps we should, if you'll bear with me, maybe we should rethink, uh, uh, uh....which one of my fishing poles were you referring to?"
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  4. #4
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    When told about the results of recent presidential election polls, Joe Biden said "If it were me, because of that way of thinking, you see, lets get real here, the very reason, and I'm not saying its absolutely true, is because, if we do it that way, instead of doing nothing, perhaps we should, if you'll bear with me, maybe we should rethink, uh, uh, uh....which one of my fishing poles were you referring to?"
    but see the best part about Joe "economic intercourse" Biden is that you don't have to make it up! Just let Joe do the talkin' and the gaffes will come

  5. #5
    I’m going to try to be objective KJ. Trump will win, Biden sucks, rah, rah.
    If not for the Covid it wouldn’t have even been close.

  6. #6
    Kew, I thought you tried to be a fairy....I mean, fair?

    I saw no mention of the fact that, this time four years ago, Trump was polling 10+ points behind Hillary in virtually every poll.

    So stop with the Don Lemon impersinations. Tell the WHOLE story first.

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    First, because I live in Las Vegas, this thread belongs in the Las Vegas section.

    Ok, so just lets see if there is anyone capable of objective political poll discussion or if it will just turn into the Trump is great, Biden sucks, rah, rah type crap (which is likely).

    We are about 6 months out and the polls look pretty bad for Trump. Averages of over a dozen polls in the last month have Trump at about 41-42%. This in itself is terrible news for an incumbent. History shows that incumbent polling at 46% or less, win re-election less than 5% of the time. 46% is the cut off. at 47% an incumbents chances increase. If I remember correctly the reasoning is that people know who the incumbent is more so that a challenger. So if they aren't for the incumbent several months out, they are unlikely to break for him/her at the end. So that is the history.

    Now several polls in the last few days, including Suffolk/USA Today and a Fox News poll have Trump polling even lower at 38% and 39% respectfully. The Suffolk poll is pretty extensive. The results show Biden at 44% and Trump 38%. This is interesting because while Trump has dropped pretty significantly only a small portion of that support has gone to Biden. Most of that Trump drop went to undecided. This tells you that many people, like myself aren't real happy with these two choices, a 74 year old and a 78 year old, either of whom would be the oldest person elected to the office of President. Reagan was 73 when he won his second term.

    In a normal election cycle these two candidates would be locked in with no way to replace either, other than possible death of one of them. But I am not so sure these are "normal" times. I have had this growing feeling for a while now, that come November this will not be Trump vs Biden, but that one or even both could be replaced.

    On the republican side, it would not surprise me if Trump just decided he has had enough, especially if poll numbers continue to look bad. He is not going to want to suffer a lopsided loss. And frankly I don't think he ever cared for the job that much. He likes the attention not the job. I could see him, putting one of his Trumpian spins on why he has decided not to run. If this were to happen, I guess Mike pence would inherit the nomination, although there would be at least some discussion of someone else, like a Nicki Haley.

    On the Democratic side, it gets even weirder. They are only half way through the official nominating process. Many states have postponed their primary elections and New York just cancelled theirs completely after initially postponing. Other states are likely to follow with the cancelling. That puts you in uncharted territory. Biden doesn't officially have enough delegates to be the nomination. It is assumed the Dems would just go ahead and anoint him the nomination, but it leaves open the possibility that the powers that be could alter course, with or without Biden's blessing (probably without).

    If there was a way that I felt comfortable betting I would bet with decent odds that one or the other, Trump or Biden doesn't make it to the General election. With the right odds, I might even put some money that neither do. But I don't bet online, I don't trust that for significant money and Nevada Casinos don't take wagers on elections. So I guess I will just watch and see.
    I agree ( or not shocked, I favor the Biden won’t make it) that one or the other won’t be the candidate. In terms of polling, look how bad it looked for Trump going into Nov. 2016.
    Polls become somewhat irrelevant due to two factors in this election. 1) electoral college. 2) Calif. and NY are heavily weighted towards towards Dems and that skews the polls. If Trump gets to 46-47% he’ll get the electoral college. Your Pence/Haley combo could be right on, if Trump steps down ( or has a massive heart attack). I don’t see Trump stepping down, when he starts having his rallies again. It may come to this - Will Trump voters come out to vote, no matter what? Yes! Will Dems come with the existing choices, no matter what? Maybe.
    Last edited by jpfromla; 04-28-2020 at 04:10 PM.
    Keep your friends close, keep your drinks closer...

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    First, because I live in Las Vegas, this thread belongs in the Las Vegas section.

    Ok, so just lets see if there is anyone capable of objective political poll discussion or if it will just turn into the Trump is great, Biden sucks, rah, rah type crap (which is likely).

    We are about 6 months out and the polls look pretty bad for Trump. Averages of over a dozen polls in the last month have Trump at about 41-42%. This in itself is terrible news for an incumbent. History shows that incumbent polling at 46% or less, win re-election less than 5% of the time. 46% is the cut off. at 47% an incumbents chances increase. If I remember correctly the reasoning is that people know who the incumbent is more so that a challenger. So if they aren't for the incumbent several months out, they are unlikely to break for him/her at the end. So that is the history.

    Now several polls in the last few days, including Suffolk/USA Today and a Fox News poll have Trump polling even lower at 38% and 39% respectfully. The Suffolk poll is pretty extensive. The results show Biden at 44% and Trump 38%. This is interesting because while Trump has dropped pretty significantly only a small portion of that support has gone to Biden. Most of that Trump drop went to undecided. This tells you that many people, like myself aren't real happy with these two choices, a 74 year old and a 78 year old, either of whom would be the oldest person elected to the office of President. Reagan was 73 when he won his second term.

    In a normal election cycle these two candidates would be locked in with no way to replace either, other than possible death of one of them. But I am not so sure these are "normal" times. I have had this growing feeling for a while now, that come November this will not be Trump vs Biden, but that one or even both could be replaced.

    On the republican side, it would not surprise me if Trump just decided he has had enough, especially if poll numbers continue to look bad. He is not going to want to suffer a lopsided loss. And frankly I don't think he ever cared for the job that much. He likes the attention not the job. I could see him, putting one of his Trumpian spins on why he has decided not to run. If this were to happen, I guess Mike pence would inherit the nomination, although there would be at least some discussion of someone else, like a Nicki Haley.

    On the Democratic side, it gets even weirder. They are only half way through the official nominating process. Many states have postponed their primary elections and New York just cancelled theirs completely after initially postponing. Other states are likely to follow with the cancelling. That puts you in uncharted territory. Biden doesn't officially have enough delegates to be the nomination. It is assumed the Dems would just go ahead and anoint him the nomination, but it leaves open the possibility that the powers that be could alter course, with or without Biden's blessing (probably without).

    If there was a way that I felt comfortable betting I would bet with decent odds that one or the other, Trump or Biden doesn't make it to the General election. With the right odds, I might even put some money that neither do. But I don't bet online, I don't trust that for significant money and Nevada Casinos don't take wagers on elections. So I guess I will just watch and see.
    KJ can I set aside the poll discussion and ask the question that seems to be more compelling.

    What are your thoughts on the alleged assault allegation against Joe Biden as more evidence emerges? Do you think Tara Reade is credible and should be believed like so many democrats said about Balsey-Ford?

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by dannyj View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    First, because I live in Las Vegas, this thread belongs in the Las Vegas section.

    Ok, so just lets see if there is anyone capable of objective political poll discussion or if it will just turn into the Trump is great, Biden sucks, rah, rah type crap (which is likely).

    We are about 6 months out and the polls look pretty bad for Trump. Averages of over a dozen polls in the last month have Trump at about 41-42%. This in itself is terrible news for an incumbent. History shows that incumbent polling at 46% or less, win re-election less than 5% of the time. 46% is the cut off. at 47% an incumbents chances increase. If I remember correctly the reasoning is that people know who the incumbent is more so that a challenger. So if they aren't for the incumbent several months out, they are unlikely to break for him/her at the end. So that is the history.

    Now several polls in the last few days, including Suffolk/USA Today and a Fox News poll have Trump polling even lower at 38% and 39% respectfully. The Suffolk poll is pretty extensive. The results show Biden at 44% and Trump 38%. This is interesting because while Trump has dropped pretty significantly only a small portion of that support has gone to Biden. Most of that Trump drop went to undecided. This tells you that many people, like myself aren't real happy with these two choices, a 74 year old and a 78 year old, either of whom would be the oldest person elected to the office of President. Reagan was 73 when he won his second term.

    In a normal election cycle these two candidates would be locked in with no way to replace either, other than possible death of one of them. But I am not so sure these are "normal" times. I have had this growing feeling for a while now, that come November this will not be Trump vs Biden, but that one or even both could be replaced.

    On the republican side, it would not surprise me if Trump just decided he has had enough, especially if poll numbers continue to look bad. He is not going to want to suffer a lopsided loss. And frankly I don't think he ever cared for the job that much. He likes the attention not the job. I could see him, putting one of his Trumpian spins on why he has decided not to run. If this were to happen, I guess Mike pence would inherit the nomination, although there would be at least some discussion of someone else, like a Nicki Haley.

    On the Democratic side, it gets even weirder. They are only half way through the official nominating process. Many states have postponed their primary elections and New York just cancelled theirs completely after initially postponing. Other states are likely to follow with the cancelling. That puts you in uncharted territory. Biden doesn't officially have enough delegates to be the nomination. It is assumed the Dems would just go ahead and anoint him the nomination, but it leaves open the possibility that the powers that be could alter course, with or without Biden's blessing (probably without).

    If there was a way that I felt comfortable betting I would bet with decent odds that one or the other, Trump or Biden doesn't make it to the General election. With the right odds, I might even put some money that neither do. But I don't bet online, I don't trust that for significant money and Nevada Casinos don't take wagers on elections. So I guess I will just watch and see.
    KJ can I set aside the poll discussion and ask the question that seems to be more compelling.

    What are your thoughts on the alleged assault allegation against Joe Biden as more evidence emerges? Do you think Tara Reade is credible and should be believed like so many democrats said about Balsey-Ford?
    We believe survivors!!!
    We believe survivors!!!
    We believe survivors!!!

    Isn't that what the libtards were saying?
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by dannyj View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    First, because I live in Las Vegas, this thread belongs in the Las Vegas section.

    Ok, so just lets see if there is anyone capable of objective political poll discussion or if it will just turn into the Trump is great, Biden sucks, rah, rah type crap (which is likely).

    We are about 6 months out and the polls look pretty bad for Trump. Averages of over a dozen polls in the last month have Trump at about 41-42%. This in itself is terrible news for an incumbent. History shows that incumbent polling at 46% or less, win re-election less than 5% of the time. 46% is the cut off. at 47% an incumbents chances increase. If I remember correctly the reasoning is that people know who the incumbent is more so that a challenger. So if they aren't for the incumbent several months out, they are unlikely to break for him/her at the end. So that is the history.

    Now several polls in the last few days, including Suffolk/USA Today and a Fox News poll have Trump polling even lower at 38% and 39% respectfully. The Suffolk poll is pretty extensive. The results show Biden at 44% and Trump 38%. This is interesting because while Trump has dropped pretty significantly only a small portion of that support has gone to Biden. Most of that Trump drop went to undecided. This tells you that many people, like myself aren't real happy with these two choices, a 74 year old and a 78 year old, either of whom would be the oldest person elected to the office of President. Reagan was 73 when he won his second term.

    In a normal election cycle these two candidates would be locked in with no way to replace either, other than possible death of one of them. But I am not so sure these are "normal" times. I have had this growing feeling for a while now, that come November this will not be Trump vs Biden, but that one or even both could be replaced.

    On the republican side, it would not surprise me if Trump just decided he has had enough, especially if poll numbers continue to look bad. He is not going to want to suffer a lopsided loss. And frankly I don't think he ever cared for the job that much. He likes the attention not the job. I could see him, putting one of his Trumpian spins on why he has decided not to run. If this were to happen, I guess Mike pence would inherit the nomination, although there would be at least some discussion of someone else, like a Nicki Haley.

    On the Democratic side, it gets even weirder. They are only half way through the official nominating process. Many states have postponed their primary elections and New York just cancelled theirs completely after initially postponing. Other states are likely to follow with the cancelling. That puts you in uncharted territory. Biden doesn't officially have enough delegates to be the nomination. It is assumed the Dems would just go ahead and anoint him the nomination, but it leaves open the possibility that the powers that be could alter course, with or without Biden's blessing (probably without).

    If there was a way that I felt comfortable betting I would bet with decent odds that one or the other, Trump or Biden doesn't make it to the General election. With the right odds, I might even put some money that neither do. But I don't bet online, I don't trust that for significant money and Nevada Casinos don't take wagers on elections. So I guess I will just watch and see.
    KJ can I set aside the poll discussion and ask the question that seems to be more compelling.

    What are your thoughts on the alleged assault allegation against Joe Biden as more evidence emerges? Do you think Tara Reade is credible and should be believed like so many democrats said about Balsey-Ford?
    We believe survivors!!!
    We believe survivors!!!
    We believe survivors!!!

    Isn't that what the libtards were saying?
    They were all saying they believe Balsey-Ford with no corroborating evidence.
    Against Biden they have evidence and the silence is deafening.

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by dannyj View Post

    KJ can I set aside the poll discussion and ask the question that seems to be more compelling.

    What are your thoughts on the alleged assault allegation against Joe Biden as more evidence emerges? Do you think Tara Reade is credible and should be believed like so many democrats said about Balsey-Ford?
    I haven't followed it very closely. And it is not that I am looking the other way. Without having that much knowledge if I had to guess, I would guess he probably did it. BUT after 2016, this kind of thing doesn't seem to even matter. Trump bragged about assaulting women. In the past, I don't know 20-30 years ago, this would have disqualified both these dudes. But not in 2020 or 2016. That is just the way it is. Gary Hart was disqualified just for spending time with someone who wasn't his wife. Just a different time.

  12. #12
    And by the way, the Balsey-Ford thing was for a supreme court Justice. It is going to be weird to say, but they have to be held to an even higher standard than the president, because it is a lifetime appointment and is the final say on everything.

    Balsey-Ford was a very bad witness. Just not credible at that point in time. My take is something happened to her at that party or she thinks something happened, because drinking was a big part of it. And the event whether how it happened or how she remembers it, effected her a great deal. So I don't think she was lying. But very probably remembering incorrectly. Again, she was drinking too right? So she was not a credible witness and in the end basically found not to be a credible witness.

    But that said, Justice Kavanaugh, appears to have been a bit of a creepy dude in his youth in high school and college. A lot of drinking, which isn't a crime or even that unusual for that age. But also a lot of claims of unusual behavior of exposing himself and so on. He just comes off as creepy to me. Like one of the privileged dudes who thinks they can get away with things others can't.

    Who would even have a calander like that from 40 years ago, and if you did you should destroy it if it makes you look as creepy as it made him look. Now in his defense that was what 40 years ago. I am guessing we all did things in our teens and college days (I didn't attend college) that might look a little creepy 40 years later at our supreme court confirmation hearing, right? I mean, we like to think these folks are something special, but they were just people and kids before they were judges.
    Last edited by kewlJ; 04-28-2020 at 07:15 PM.

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by dannyj View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by dannyj View Post

    KJ can I set aside the poll discussion and ask the question that seems to be more compelling.

    What are your thoughts on the alleged assault allegation against Joe Biden as more evidence emerges? Do you think Tara Reade is credible and should be believed like so many democrats said about Balsey-Ford?
    We believe survivors!!!
    We believe survivors!!!
    We believe survivors!!!

    Isn't that what the libtards were saying?
    They were all saying they believe Balsey-Ford with no corroborating evidence.
    Against Biden they have evidence and the silence is deafening.
    This gal Reade is no Balsey-Ford--she's strong-willed and relentless. That is what's needed to bring down a creepy pervert like Joe Biden. That's why none of the democrats want to talk about it and the media outside of FNC look the other way. They had zero evidence against Kavanaugh. Against Biden and his diddling charge we have the Larry King call-in as well as several others remembering what Tara told them. Now she is asking for Biden's Senate notes because her complaint from back then is in there too. But of course, they won't release it....now.

  14. #14
    Cunts name is Blasey Ford not Balsey Ford. Sheesh.

  15. #15
    "Ballsy"-Ford lied about everything. Absolutely no evidence existed tying her to Kavanaugh. Her friend who was supposed to be at that party with her said she had no recollection of the alleged incident and didn't know Kavanaugh. It was pure smear campaign by Dems. It's one of the things that pisses me off so bad about Dems. They have no priniciples. They just make shit up like KJ has done here. They will lie about anything. That Kananaugh was a "creepy dude' was not said by anyone that knew him. It was pure made up bullshit by dem operatives. It's unbelievable how KJ gets even simple rudimentary facts wrong. But that's the dem way. They believe if they tell a lie long enough it will become the truth.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    "Ballsy"-Ford lied about everything. Absolutely no evidence existed tying her to Kavanaugh. Her friend who was supposed to be at that party with her said she had no recollection of the alleged incident and didn't know Kavanaugh. It was pure smear campaign by Dems. It's one of the things that pisses me off so bad about Dems. They have no priniciples. They just make shit up like KJ has done here. They will lie about anything. That Kananaugh was a "creepy dude' was not said by anyone that knew him. It was pure made up bullshit by dem operatives. It's unbelievable how KJ gets even simple rudimentary facts wrong. But that's the dem way. They believe if they tell a lie long enough it will become the truth.
    What is the matter with you Crimm. Chill out!

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    "Ballsy"-Ford lied about everything. Absolutely no evidence existed tying her to Kavanaugh. Her friend who was supposed to be at that party with her said she had no recollection of the alleged incident and didn't know Kavanaugh. It was pure smear campaign by Dems. It's one of the things that pisses me off so bad about Dems. They have no priniciples. They just make shit up like KJ has done here. They will lie about anything. That Kananaugh was a "creepy dude' was not said by anyone that knew him. It was pure made up bullshit by dem operatives. It's unbelievable how KJ gets even simple rudimentary facts wrong. But that's the dem way. They believe if they tell a lie long enough it will become the truth.
    What is the matter with you Crimm. Chill out!
    The truth will set you free.

    Biden's accuser, Tara Reade, is a life long democrat.
    She has never changed her story.
    She told her mother and brother when it happened.
    Other witnesses, also democrats, confirm her story.
    Her mother called into Larry King Live about it in 1993.

    When the film footage from Larry King Live began to be shown online CNN erased it from their archives. CNN was all over Kavanugh but when it comes to a Dem, well, hell no. CNN is fake news. But you can bet your ass someone besides CNN has that film footage recorded.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  18. #18
    I'm real disappointed in Biden. He does seen very senile to me. I can't understand why anyone voted for him when so many more choices were available. Looks like we are stuck with him now. I don't believe he has enough delegates to win the convention. Maybe the convention will draft Gov Cuomo.

    However anyone will be better than Trump.

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post

    However anyone will be better than Trump.
    WHY?

    -the China Virus thing. What was so bad?

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post

    However anyone will be better than Trump.
    WHY?

    -the China Virus thing. What was so bad?
    Excellent point! Next time when something like this happens, we should follow the example of all the liberal left learning head’s of state in the European counties, since we all saw had well they handled it.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. She is Second in Line to be Joe Biden's VP Pick
    By Midwest Player in forum Las Vegas
    Replies: 16
    Last Post: 04-19-2020, 07:20 AM
  2. Now Trump Has Done It
    By Midwest Player in forum Whatever's On Your Mind
    Replies: 23
    Last Post: 01-08-2020, 08:18 AM
  3. Thanks Trump
    By Midwest Player in forum Whatever's On Your Mind
    Replies: 27
    Last Post: 01-05-2020, 11:29 PM
  4. If Trump wants to win
    By pepe in forum Whatever's On Your Mind
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 05-30-2019, 12:04 PM
  5. The Trump of Pahrump
    By redietz in forum Las Vegas
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 06-13-2018, 08:49 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •