In early March, after I returned from Las Vegas and had evaluated airports vis-ŕ-vis the virus, I posted here that I thought the Las Vegas casinos would close and posted my rationale. I was met with disbelief. I was completely correct.

Back when this all started, Boz made the comment that the virus death toll had reached the number of people killed by 9/11. My posted response was that it would sprint by that number by a factor of 30, which would have yielded 90-some thousand deaths. If that number sounds familiar, it was the one being quoted by President Trump last time he gave an estimate.

When the first two days of New York blowing up with the virus yielded really bad numbers, I posted that I had significantly underestimated the total, and that it could be much, much worse.

Early on, I said that I expected the U.S. response would be "slightly worse" than Italy's, given the behavioral propensities of Americans and shelter-in-place rules. Considering how bad Italy was at the time, and how the U.S. had weeks of Italy's example, this seemed like an "out in left field" prediction. It was not.

I was also completely correct on how the public was being led down a primrose path with administration projections. These entries in my blog were particularly prescient and accurate:

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...ol-issues.html

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...nnumeracy.html

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...r-massage.html

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...cy-lunacy.html

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...psych-101.html


I don't really want to be accused of cherry-picking the most accurate entries, so feel free to read all entries and see if I was inaccurate regarding much of anything.

For those who garnered some accurate information from my posts at VCT regarding the virus, glad to be of service.

What do I expect going forward? The projections (with August 4th as an artificial end date) ballpark at 135,000 deaths from the U of W model. That's roughly Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined without long-term deaths. That's pretty bad for an August 4th deadline with multiple waves in the future. I expect worse.

Something to bear in mind. The more that an economy relies on wants, not needs, to drive it, the more vulnerable it is in time of war. The more a people exist in an economy that emphasizes fulfilling wants, not needs, the less disciplined they are. Bad combination.

It is a mess. It will get worse.