Are playing video poker progressives highly profitable?

[Alan Mendelson]

well, here we go again-- a discussion about the profitability of playing video poker progressives.

A well know video poker expert contacted me directly (he didn't want to be identified on the Forum, and I respect that) and asked:

"Please God tell me YOU understand why playing high progressives is incredibly profitable?"

I wrote back to him:

I think they're extremely profitable if you hit them. If you don't you're usually playing a reduced paytable that makes you a bigger loser. Am I right or am I wrong?


Well, he said I was wrong, and here's how he put it:

"Well you phrased the question in a way that makes it awkward for me to
answer, since as you know, I hate to tell people they are wrong. I would
say that there's more to than that. Was that soft enough? How about this. Tomorrow I'll walk you through some very, very simple math and a couple of logic puzzles that will give you all the tools you need to come to your own conclusion. Then you can answer the question of whether or not your answer is correct or not yourself."

And here is how I responded:

"You know, there is theory and there is reality. Let me give you the reality to help you in formulating your response::

If you aren't winning, you are losing.

You might be playing the game with the greatest player advantage in the world, but if you don't win, you lost.

Example: You are playing a game that has 999,999 winners and only one loser out of a million draws. Your draw is the loser. You lost-- period.

I'm a businessman, and I don't bank theory. I bank dollars."

Michael Shackleford, the Wizard and well known gaming math expert, uses a phrase that says it doesn't matter if you win or lose but if you made a good bet. Well, sure we want to make a good bet, but the bottom line is did you win or not. If you lose too many good bets, you'll go broke.

Let me give you a real-life example:

Players in craps are told that making the "odds bet" on the pass line and come bets are the best bets on the craps table because they carry "zero house advantage." What these players fail to recognize is that there is also no "player advantage." And they fail to realize that while there is no "house advantage" because the bets are paid at "true odds" the house is still more likely to win.

My favorite story is that of a young couple who walked up to a craps table for the first time in their lives with a single $100 bill and told the dealer they want to play. It was a $25 table. They got four green ($25) chips for their portrait of Ben Franklin.

They were told to put a green chip on the passline. They did.
The come out roll was a 4.
They were told to bet the odds -- that's $75 behind the 4 -- because it's the best bet on the table with no house advantage. So they did.

The shooter then went on a run throwing lots of numbers: 5, 6, 8, 9, 10 and repeating them. The other players at the table were scooping up chips, filling the rail until finally the 7-out came. There was no 4.

As the couple walked away they said to the dealer "I thought you said it was the best bet on the table?"

Yes, they had made a good bet -- but they lost. Had they made some "not so good bets" such as placing the 6 and 8 they would have won some money.

The way I look at it, it's not if you make the best bets, it's if you win.

Playing progressives in video poker might indeed be very profitable if you hit the progressive, but if you don't...

[Rob.Singer]

First I'll tackle Michael's quote since he's the latest "expert" to run away from one of my challenges: He claims it doesn't matter if you win or lose as long as it was a "positive" (or in his commercialized words, GOOD) bet. Why does he say such nonsense? Simple. Because he makes his living selling strategy and on-line gaming to the uninformed and naiive gambler. He'll talk mathbook theory all day long, but try to throw some actual gaming into the mix and he runs for the hills. After all, he makes his living in his gambling BUSINESS and not from his perceived mastery of "advantage play". It's what sells, not what works.

Now onto your progressives "expert". These misled people will argue day & night how their theoretical "advantage" is all it takes to make a profit. Then there's the collection of slug "team members" with going-nowhere lives, who use that employment as an excuse to claim they're "professional gamblers" while they are nothing but casino rats & problem gamblers without this cover.

What you said hit the nail on the head. If these fantasy dwellers don't hit the royals, they're nothing but big time losers and they know it. And how often do you think it is THEY who hit these royals? Sure, they make everyone think they're exclusive winners on these things, but what happened to the rest of the population? Pure BS, pure & simple, and it's one of the reasons why these people have turned to the gaming business in one form or another, for their puny incomes.