Originally Posted by
Rob.Singer
The libtards must have forgotten: 4 years ago every poll but ONE was announcing Trump's funeral. And the way he gets so easily under democratic skin, their pollsters decided it needs to be worse this time around in order to stop Trump. Liberals ALL ate Crow last time around. It'll be even better this time.
It cracks me up how people are so delusional and chose to remember some alternative reality. Both republican trump supporters, and democrats are currently doing this. I hear republicans, especially Trump supports constantly crow about the "miracle" that Trump pulled off, while democrats are similarly scared shitless of a 2016 repeat. Neither side is remembering reality and what really happened.
About this time in 2016, the summer months, polls did have Hilary up 6-7 points. And that narrowed as we got towards election day. I choose not to ever put too much emphasis on any one poll, instead looking at Real Clear politics average of many polls. The day before the 2016 election RCP had Hillary up 3.4%. The final vote: Hillary won by 2.1%. That is not a defying of polls and predictions. That is actually remarkably accurate. A difference of 1.3%.
In 2016 there were 4 swing states that were thought to be very close, within a point or two. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida. Trump won all of them by less than a point. That was not some great miscalculation. He managed to thread the needle. You can argue whether that was him or Hilary underperforming. But whatever.
So fast forward to today. RCP average has Biden up 10 or 11 points. At least 4 points higher than Hillary at her high. Still 4 months to go. Polls could tighten. But the real bad news for Trump is the individual state polls. The 4 swing states that Trump won in 2016 by less than 1%, he is currently trailing by 8 -10 points. In every one of them. Furthermore states that he won by 3-4 points like Arizona, North Carolina, he is currently down 3-5 points. That suggest about an 8-9 point shift, CURRENTLY. Further evidence of this shift, is states that Trump won by 6,7,8 points, like Ohio, Iowa, Georgia and Texas, are now tossups. Everything has currently moved about 8 points! It may narrow, but that is where it is now. Trump has to make up about 8 points to have any hope of threading the needle repeat of 2016.
Now lets talk Texas specifically. Texas is quickly shifting blue. The demographics are changing. There is little doubt that 10 years from now Texas will be a blue state. That is longterm trouble for Republicans. They have to find somewhere to make up 40 electoral votes? I kind of figured Texas would stay Red for one last election, 2020. But Now I don't think so. Let's look at the numbers of how quickly Texas is moving. 2012: Romney won by 17 percent. 2016 Trump won by 8 percent. 2018 in a senate race that drew roughly the same number of votes as 2016 presidential election, Cruz beat O' Rourke by 2 points. Texas is shifting very quickly. And this coronavirus will be the nail in the coffin. remember April/May seeing those long lines of middle class folks at the food banks in Texas? Those were not poor liberal types. They were middle class republicans that voted for Trump. I am not exactly sure what it was about Texas that the middleclass there was hit so hard, but it is going to come in to play.
Mark my word, if Trump is running, Texas swings blue THIS year! You will notice the wording, because I think Trump is very close to announcing he will not seek re-election. He will put some spin on it but he is about to pull out. Not resign, just not seek re-election. And that too will be very interesting for a pure political junkie like me. I envision a Pence/Nicki Haley ticket. And that just might be a winner against Biden. Or maybe the Repubs will even dump Pence and put Haley on top, Maybe Nicki Halley and Rick Scott, which could help with Florida. All I know is Trump is done. He is not going to even run for re-election.